The effect of stepchildren on childbearing intentions and births

This article reports on a study of the effect of stepchildren (children from previous unions) on couples' fertility intentions and childbearing behavior using longitudinal data from the National Survey of Families and Households. The results indicated that stepchildren negatively affect childbearing intentions and childbearing risks. Intentions to have a child are weakened by one's own previous biological children and the previous biological children of one's current spouse or partner. This effect varies by the parenting configuration of the couple and gender of the respondent. Among couples with stepchildren, intentions remain high until each partner has had a biological child. Unlike women, men's previous biological children do not affect their intentions of having a child. Stepchildren exert a weak negative effect on couples' childbearing risks, and this effect is mediated by the couples' childbearing intentions. The findings suggest that stepchildren should be incorporated into future models of fertility.     

The making of a ghetto: Spatially concentrated poverty in New York City in the 1980s

In recent years a debate has arisen over which of two mechanisms — class selective household mobility or spatially focused increases in poverty — has been the driving force in concentrating poverty in certain inner-city neighborhoods. This paper utilizes a multivariate analysis to identify the processes underlying areal income-class transition in New York City during 1978–1987, and the areal characteristics that predict a consistent path of change. By anchoring the analysis at the level of the individual housing unit, this study disentangles the competing mechanisms of poverty concentration and demonstrates that both selective mobility and shifts in income class contribute to areal income-class transition, but that the latter mechanism accounts for a greater amount of change. Further, after controlling for the proportion of minority residents and public housing units in the area, the results show that location in poor areas is associated with poor in-movement, nonpoor out-movement, and downward shifts in the income class among long-term residents. These mutually reinforcing processes lead to continued decline in extreme- and high-poverty areas, while processes in the opposite direction sustain the economic vitality of low-poverty areas.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1992 meetings of the Population Association of America in Denver, Colorado.     

Estimating the effect of child mortality on the number of births

This article rigorously derives the properties of the regression of births on child deaths. It is shown how the raw regression coefficient may be corrected for the effects of fertility on mortality so that the rate at which dead children are replaced may be estimated. The method is applied to data from Colombia. It is found that the mortality rate differs across individuals and is correlated with fertility. Such conditions vitiate the use of birth intervals and parity progression ratios yet can be dealt with using the new method. On average each death produces 0.2 new births as a direct result of the death. Fertility hoarding may raise the total fertility response to roughly one-half birth per death.     

Evolution of an urban epidemic: The first 100,000 AIDS cases in New York City

Between 1981 and August 1997, 100,000 AIDS cases were reported in New York City (NYC): 77,067 men, 20,818 women, 307 teenagers, and 1,808 children. This report examines AIDS trends in NYC as the epidemic evolved from a predominantly white male epidemic among men with same sex contact (MSM) mostly from a single borough to a geographically diffuse epidemic that includes injecting drug users (IDU), persons of color, and women infected heterosexually. Case data were collected by active surveillance methods augmented by electronic laboratory based reporting. Mortality data were obtained from NYC Vital Statistics. 1990 Census data were used to derive incidence rates and prevalence by neighborhood income. Rates per 100,000 adults by neighborhood ranged from 260 to 5,500. Total AIDS incidence peaked in 1993 and has subsequently declined. Among men there was a shift from MSM to IDU as the predominant risk group, and increasing incidence among men reporting heterosexual contact. IDU was the leading risk factor among women, and women increased from 8 to 30 percent of all cases between 1982 and 1997. Unlike incidence, AIDS prevalence is rising among socially and economically marginalized populations, and will remain a major public health challenge well into the next century.     

Immigration and native migration in New York City, 1985–1990

The 1990 Public Use Micro Sample is used to analyze the relationship between immigration and outmigration of the native born in New York City. The study population is limited to native born males who lived in the five boroughs in 1985. The relationship between immigration and the probability of various kinds of moves is assessed using logistic regression. Results suggest that immigration has an insignificant effect on migratory behavior, with the exception of inter-borough migration. Unlike prior work, this study examines a single metro area, and does not limit itself to inter-state migration. These results are consistent with more recent work (Card 2001; Kritz et al. 2001), which has failed to find a positive labor market level effect of immigration on native migratory behavior. The inter-borough finding is consistent with the occurrence of voluntary residential segregation within the city, in which the native born move away from areas of immigrant concentration but do not leave the labor market, yet there is no direct evidence that this process occurred.     

Differences in the locational attainment of immigrant and native-born households with children in New York City

In this paper we use a data set created especially for New York City to evaluate whether the locational attainment of households with children, as indicated by the context of the neighborhoods in which they live, varies by their immigrant status. In addition, we evaluate whether the relationship between immigrant status and neighborhood conditions varies by the householder's race/ethnicity. Overall, when compared with native-born households with children, immigrant households with children live in neighborhoods of lower quality, characterized by higher teenage fertility rates and higher percentages of students in local schools scoring below grade level in math and of persons receiving AFDC, but lower rates of juvenile detention. Further analyses, however, revealed that race/ethnicity is far more potent than immigrant status per se in predicting where households with children live.     

Direct observation of neighborhood stressors and environmental justice in the South Bronx,New York City

Neighborhood environments are believed to contribute to negative health outcomes; however, accurately measuring area attributes remains challenging. The objective of this research is to quantify the presence of (or lack of) environmental injustices characterized by the geographic distribution of neighborhood stressors related to the built and social environment in the South Bronx that may contribute to poor health outcomes. Objective environmental audits were collected and coded for over 2,000 block faces. Physical and social indices were calculated. Bivariate correlations and spatial regressions revealed potential environmental injustices related to the distribution of social and physical environmental stressors at the local level. This novel dataset has many future applications in the effort to understand the connection between health, environmental justice, and location.     

The fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births

Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf-coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.     

The time response in averted births

Abstract A calculation of the timing of births that are averted may seem a curious exercise, when not only do the births in question not occur, but the corresponding conceptions may never have existed. However, such a calculation may have considerable use. In order to assess the likely direct impact of a contraceptive programme on birth rates it is useful to estimate the number of births that would, in the absence of the programme, have occurred among the couples who accept it. Moreover, some time would necessarily elapse before a new 'steady state' in fertility could be reached, even if the programme and the potentially fertile population did not change in any way; and it is worth while to seek to find the times (for a few years after the start of a programme) when the (averted) births would have occurred in its absence, and to examine any inherent oscillations produced in birth rates by it. This question is considered below only for groups of women aged 20 at marriage (a state which is taken to be the start of regular exposure to the risk of conception), but the same methods are applicable to other ages, (possibly allowing for mortality) and appropriate combinations of age groups and cohorts in the fertile range may be used to estimate changes in fertility and reproduction rates expected from a programme, subject to given conditions, for several years after its start. The methods can also be generalised, by means of convolution, to contraceptive programmes that change with time, but these are not considered further.     

The effects of school desegregation on mixed-race births

We find a strong positive raw correlation between black exposure to whites in their school district and the prevalence of later mixed-race (black-white) births, consistent with the literature on residential segregation and endogamy. However, that relationship is significantly attenuated by the addition of a few control variables, suggesting that individuals with higher propensities to have mixed-race births are more likely to live in desegregated school districts. We exploit quasi-random variation from court-ordered school desegregation to estimate causal effects of school desegregation on mixed-race childbearing, finding small to moderate effects that are largely statistically insignificant. Because the upward trend across cohorts in mixed-race childbearing was substantial, separating the effects of desegregation plans from secular cohort trends is difficult; results are sensitive to how we specify the cohort trends and to the inclusion of Chicago/Cook County in the sample. The fact that the addition of a few control variables substantially weakens the cross-sectional relationship between lower levels of school segregation and higher rates of mixed-race childbearing suggests that a substantial portion of the observed correlation is likely due to who chooses to live in places with desegregated schools. Researchers should be cautious about interpreting raw correlations between segregation—whether residential or school—and other outcomes as causal. Our results also point to the need to carefully explore specification of cohort effects in quasi-experimental designs for treatments where cumulative exposure is important.     

Risk-Taking Behaviors of Gay and Bisexual Men in New York City Post 9/11

Until now, the reactions of gay and bisexual populations have been largely overlooked in response to terror and disaster. This study assesses risk-taking behaviors in gay and bisexual men two weeks before and after the 9/11 attacks in Manhattan. For the purposes of this study, risk-taking behaviors include drug use and unprotected anal sex. These behaviors and associated desires were examined in relation to race/ethnicity, age, geographic location, and HIV status, within and across time. The results of this study demonstrate that HIV status may be a pivotal demographic feature in understanding risk-taking behaviors post disaster. No changes in drug use were reported pre and post 9/11. However, there was an increase in risky sexual behaviors in relation to serostatus, with HIV-positive men reporting a higher number of sexual partners post 9/11. In contrast, the number of sexual partners remained constant in HIV-negative men. There was also an interaction effect, demonstrating that HIV-positive men were more likely than HIV-negative men to act on their desire for sex. Thus, as a population already faced with the prospect of death, HIV-positive men may be a population more vulnerable in the face of terror and disaster.     

Race and ethnicity in housing: Turnover in New York City, 1978–1987

This study examines the patterns and predictors of housing turnovers among non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, Puerto Ricans, and other Hispanics in New York City during 1978-1987 to assess whether access to housing is distributed differentially by race and ethnicity. The data are taken from the triennial New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey. After controlling for household preferences, purchasing power, and quality characteristics of the housing unit, multinomial logistic regression results show the most consistent and significant predictors of turnover to be geographic and market-sector attributes. The findings suggest the presence of structural constraints in the housing market which effectively channel racial/ethnic groups to separate neighborhoods. The overall results are reminiscent of early studies of neighborhood transition by Duncan and Duncan (1957) and Taeuber and Taeuber (1965), and show that little progress has been made toward achieving equality in housing or informal social contact between racial/ethnic groups.     

Demographic Data on the Victims of the September 11, 2001 Terror Attack on the World Trade Center,New York City

The magnitude of the death toll resulting from the attack on the World Trade Center is without precedent in the history of terrorist acts. Because of the scale and destructiveness of the buildings' collapse, a final list of the victims required a lengthy process, more so than was the case at the other sites of terrorist violence on the same day—at the Pentagon, Virginia (193 killed, 68 of these on American Airlines Flight 77), and near Shanksville, Pennsylvania (45 killed in the crash of United Airlines Flight 93). After the passing of a year, the list of the victims in New York, while essentially complete, is still not officially closed. On August 19, 2002, the city's medical examiner's office issued a list containing 2,819 names. Reproduced below are some data, released by the city's office of vital statistics, on the demographic characteristics of 2,723 victims (59 of these on United Airlines Flight 175 and 89 on American Airlines Flight 11) for whom a death certificate had been issued—an exacting procedure—as of August 16,2002. The cause of death, in each instance, was entered as homicide. The age distribution reflects the character of the World Trade Center—a workplace—and the time of day—early for tourist visits. The youngest victims perished as passengers in the two airplanes flown into the twin towers.     

A New Look at Inequality: Introducing and Testing a Cross-Sectional Equality Measurement Framework in New York City

Inequality is a characteristic of societies worldwide, and many groups face disparities across a range of domains from economy to health to justice. While inequality is a complex problem in which many of these domains are interconnected, most research examines only one area, or at most the effect of one area on another. This paper details an innovative approach to studying inequality using an indicators methodology. The Equality Indicators are comprised of 96 measures of inequality and how it changes annually across six themes: Economy, Education, Health, Housing, Justice, and Services. It compares the experiences of those most likely to be adversely affected by inequalities to those of less disadvantaged groups. Here, we detail the development of the tool, its structure, data sources, and scoring system, followed by baseline findings from New York City, where we combined administrative and secondary public survey data with the data from a new public survey conducted for this study. We found substantial inequalities across all six themes, although they were most pronounced in Health and Justice. While we are not able to make direct comparisons of indicators in a given year, the intention of the tool is to track change over time; in future years we will be able to compare change or lack thereof across indicators and domains. The current findings across areas, however, suggest that New York City is characterized by vast inequalities, where disadvantaged groups are twice as likely as others to experience negative outcomes in fundamental areas of life.     

Life and death in the sixteenth century in the City of York

Abstract Birth data obtained from the parish records of the City of York show a markedly bi-modal seasonal distribution in the sixteenth century. It appeared interesting to compare the expectation of life of individuals born during this period, during the two minimal and two maximal seasons, to determine if there was any adaptive significance in the annual variation of birth rate. No such effect could be established by this study. However, certain conclusions of considerable interest can be drawn. The survivorship functions for either sex, grouped by birth season or on the whole group, are of a rectilinear diagonal type more reminiscent of an avian population rather than man. However the York data were treated, no statistically significant difference appeared between the sexes when their expectation of life was compared, and the female death rate at all times until the end of life was somewhat higher than the male. It appeared that sixteenth-century York tended to care better for their sons than for their daughters, which also appears to be the case in some modern societies of low to moderate living standard.     

Stigma and Salvation: Advertising HIV Awareness in New York City: A Case Study

Popular culture representations and negotiations of HIV/AIDS have fluctuated over the last several decades, and awareness of the illness and its causes has grown due to better education and extensive cultural dialogue. The following examines two contemporary HIV/AIDS public health campaigns in the New York City area. Although there have been limited improvements in the portrayals of HIV-positive individuals, advertising focused on HIV awareness still does not directly address prevention. These two campaigns encourage two distinct messages; one that reinforces the stigma attached to HIV/AIDS and one that promises salvation.     

The social structure of social problems in New York state

A comparative study of the 52 upstate New York counties replicated a previous state level study that did a principal components analysis of social problems and attempted to predict them by aspects of social structure. In the New York counties the percent Democrat predicted various welfare measures. Population density predicted health and crime problems, and affluence. When population density was controlled, affluence related only to crimes of property. Contrasting with the state study, political competitiveness (per cent voting) was related to few variables.     

Causes of death contributing to changes in life expectancy in New York City between 1983 and 1992

Recent changes in life expectancy among race and sex groups in New York City were evaluated by analyzing the relative effects of different causes of death in 1983 and 1992, a period in which life expectancy at birth declined by 1.1 years among white males, remained unchanged among black males, and increased 1.2 years among white and black females. Heart disease was found to be the leading cause of death making positive contributions to changes in life expectancy regardless of race or sex, and HIV/AIDS was the leading negative contributor. Overall, deaths from infectious diseases and external causes are becoming more important compared to degenerative conditions in explaining trends in life expectancy in New York City. Past improvements in survival due to reductions in infant deaths are being reversed due to an increase in deaths from preventable causes such as violence and AIDS. Future gains in longevity may require a greater emphasis on policies and programs emphasizing conflict resolution and HIV prevention.     

The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain

This paper investigates how education and the labour market affect Spanish individual decisions on the timing of marriage and births, using a Cox hazard approach. It disentangles men and women, and two groups, Cohort 1945–1960 and Cohort 1961–1977. Results show that female employment delays marriage in Cohort 1945–1960, but it has a reverse effect in Cohort 1961–1977. We also find evidence that employment is a barrier for family formation since employed women postpone births in both cohorts. The precarious Spanish labour markets, captured by female unemployment rates, delay family formation, especially by putting off marriage. Male unemployment, at the individual level, impacts negatively on fertility only through delaying marriage.