解读印度经济的崛起

20 0 3年第三和第四季度 ,印度国内总产值增长率分别达到 8.4%和 8.9% ,引起世界广泛的瞩目。始于 90年代初的改革 ,为印度经济的蓄势待发奠定了基础。印度作为世界经济大国的崛起 ,已经成为历史发展的必然趋势。本文详尽分析了印度经济目前强劲的发展态势 ,并就印度经济仍然存在的问题、印度经济何时崛起及意义、印度经济崛起对中国与世界的影响等提出了独到的看法。     

核制裁下的印度对外经济和政策

印度经济对外开放程度较低。在前两年金融风暴席卷亚洲多数国家的形势下，印度所受冲击相对较轻，但核爆炸引起的美国和日本的经济制裁却使印度对外经济雪上加霜。为了走出困境，印度进行改革和调整，努力改善与一些国家的经济关系。一、对外经济形势恶化（一）出口增长率下降，贸易逆差扩大据印度商情局的统计，在东南亚金融危机影响下，印度１９９６—９７年度出口增长率降为５．３％，进口增长率降为６．７％，１９９７—９８年度出口仅增长１．５％，进口增长４．２％，逆差增至６７．９９亿美元。由于国际商品价格疲软，加上西方经济制…     

当前世界金融危机爆发的根源及我国的对策

西方资本主义生产的社会性与占有制的私人性之间的矛盾是世界金融危机频繁爆发的根源.发达国家的经济及产业结构、世界经济的二元化格局是金融危机爆发的重要原因.随着世界金融体系日益形成一个整体,同时由于西方发达国家经济活动的世界影响力,金融风暴"连锁反应"的几率越来越高.面对世界金融危机,我国应在科学发展观的指导下,作出战略性的选择与规划.     

喜中有忧的当前印度经济形势

据美国高盛公司的估算,印度经济在2020年之前可以连续保持8%的高增长率。团结进步联盟政府执政三年来,印度经济创下年均增长8.6%的优异纪录。2007-2008年度是“十一五”计划的开局年,预计印度国内生产总值将超过10000亿美元。这个成就应归功于曼莫汉·辛格总理在1991年担任国大党政府财政部长时设计的经济改革方案和以后历届政府坚持改革开放的政策。保持对外友好政策的连续性也使印度的国际形象迅速改善。目前,印度发展经济的内外环境相当有利。印度既已成为“世界办公室”,成为“世界工厂”的梦想也有望实现。然而,喜中有忧,印度经济还面临着一些亟待解决的问题。     

世纪之交的印度经济发展及其前景

长期的殖民统治,使印度经济落后。独立后,印度注意发展经济,提高人民生活水平。经过半个世纪的努力,印度基本达到粮食自给并略有出口,同时建立了比较完整的工业体系和国民经济体系,科学技术不断进步,有些领域已走在世界前列。于是人们议论着,下个世纪的印度将成为世界经济强国。然而,由于人口众多,人均收入水平不高,印度仍属不发达国家。因此,印度经济目前情况如何,将来发展前景怎样,就成为人们密切关注的问题。一、印度经济发展情况良好独立前,印度经济增长极为缓慢,人均收入不时出现停滞甚至下降。独立初期,印巴分治引起…     

当代印度财团的特点

印度财团在印度经济改革和发展中日益壮大,并迅速成长为印度跨国公司,在近年世界商品、服务、技术和资源竞争中,其强大实力和成功经验引起世界的关注.本文介绍了一些重要的印度财团,并对其在国内市场上的竞争以及面向世界发展跨国经营的情况进行了分析.     

印度奶业合作社迅速发展的原因及其启示

印度是名副其实的世界最大牛奶生产国,牛奶产量多年稳居世界第一。印度农业合作组织比较发达,尤其是奶业合作社非常成功,发展很快,在农业经济中发挥着重要作用。印度的奶业合作社所以能迅速发展,独占鳌头,原因是多方面的,本文拟就此做一简要分析,以期对我国农业合作社的发展有所启示。     

印度经济发展优势辨析

印度自改革开放以来,经济发展迅速,成为亚洲乃至世界经济增长的强劲引擎,同中国经济相比呈现出不同的发展优势:印度有运转良好的金融体制和比较完善的法律体系,并拥有一批国际知名私人企业和知名品牌;服务业特别是软件产业是其经济增长极;拥有一大批国际化的人才。但是,如果不改善基础设施,不重视大众化教育,印度经济难以实现真正的腾飞。     

莫迪:愿望破灭又遇人设坍塌

正他没能将印度打造成世界制造中心,一直以来精心维护的廉洁奉公典范的形象也遭到了空前的质疑。印度总理莫迪一直以来都是稳健的长者形象,但在过去的2018年,他虽说不上过得水深火热,但也没有达成让印度从"积极印度"转型为"激进印度"的新年目标。众所周知,莫迪是"印度制造"运动的发起者,目标是将印度打造成世界制造中心,确保全国经济稳定增长,摆脱对中国进口商品的依赖。但印度英文杂志《今日印度》的一篇文章指出,在莫迪发起"印度制造"的过去3年中,印度对中国产品的依赖度不降反增,印度对中国的出口却停滞不     

印度——正在崛起的生物技术大国

每一次技术革命都会改变世界经济格局。正在形成的生物文明也将对世界经济格局产生重要影响。印度作为发展中国家,正努力利用全球生物技术产业迅速发展带来的新机遇,实现其快速崛起的战略目标。     

对社会主义市场经济的理性审视

市场与计划各有其长短,应该互相结合,互相补充。中国特色的社会主义经济体制应该实行计划与市场相结合的计划市场经济体制,而不是单一的市场经济体制。社会主义市场经济具有市场经济的共同特点,存在着一般市场经济所具有的内在矛盾,这是当前严重腐败现象产生的经济根源。面对市场经济引发的个人利己主义价值观,应该坚持和发扬社会主义集体主义价值观和道德观。     

印度穆斯林的发展困境及政府的应对措施

印度的穆斯林是印度人口众多的少数群体。印度独立以后,特别是20世纪90年代印度实行经济改革以来,社会经济发展水平迅速提高。然而,印度穆斯林却未能充分享受到发展所带来的成果,在政治参与程度、经济发展水平和文化教育水平等方面面临着发展的困境。这一困境是历史和经济原因、印度政府的忽视、穆斯林自身原因和教派冲突的影响等多种因素共同作用的结果。印度政府为此采取了一系列的应对措施。     

The Informal Economy: A Case Study in Unrestrained Competition

The New Labour government in Britain is the first post-deregulation regime in Europe and the first to attempt to re-regulate the labour market. In particular, its welfare-to-work programme and New Deal for Lone Parents are aimed at shifting activities from the informal to the formal economy, and at enlarging labour market participation. Its commitment to social justice and inclusion is closely linked to increased employment opportunities and a responsibility for contributing to national prosperity. The new programmes must also reconcile these aims with the retention of the flexibility that it sees as giving Britain a competitive edge over other European economies. In order to combine efficiency and equity, increased participation must not involve excessive transaction and enforcement costs. The problem is that those at present engaged in the informal economy (and especially in undeclared cash work while claiming) do not have strong incentives to cooperate with the new schemes. This paper uses the example of the informal relations of taxi-driving in a small town to illustrate the paradoxes of this situation. It is a case study in the rational strategies of individual actors, which collectively frustrate each other; and in the difficulties of starting collective action for mutual restraint of competition. The New Labour government must solve many such problems if its policies are to succeed.     

地方经济结构与制造业增长：来自对比苏浙两省的经验证据

利用苏浙两省1999年-2007年27个制造行业的面板数据,对比分析地方经济结构（专业化与多样化经济、本地竞争与垄断、FDI与出口）的外部性对制造业发展的影响。结果表明：多样化经济对苏浙两省产业发展有促进作用,专业化经济对浙江省产业发展有促进作用而对江苏省产业发展的影响不明显;本地竞争有利于产业发展,本地企业规模（垄断）对江苏省产业发展有促进作用,对浙江省有阻碍作用;FDI对两省产业发展的作用不明显,而出口有利于产业发展;产业集中对江苏省产业发展有促进作用而对浙江省有阻碍作用;传统的要素投入中,资本对产业发展具有一定的促进作用,而劳动力投入的作用不明显。     

New Economy and New Social Policy in East and Southeast Asian Compact, Mature Economies: The Case of Hong Kong

In the 1970s, as the now compact, mature economies in East and Southeast Asia were industrializing, their governments had claimed that they saw no need for the kind of welfare programmes developed in Western “welfare states”. Notwithstanding this claim, a study of social welfare development in these economies in the last three decades, particularly when Hong Kong is taken as an example, shows that they have gone for universal social welfare, largely as a result of the growing prosperity and the rising expectations of the people. This trend has, however, been reversed since the start of the Asian financial crisis in the latter part of 1997, with the resultant slowing down of the economy, rising unemployment and surging fiscal deficits. Governments of the compact, mature economies in East and Southeast Asia found that they must rethink their social commitments and in order to return to balanced budgets, the former selective approach is now adopted by concentrating social welfare resources on the most needy people. While it is not in dispute that there is a close and positive relationship between industrialization and social welfare, the case of the compact, mature economies in East and Southeast Asia shows that as they are more vulnerable to world economic vicissitudes, the relationship may not be as steady as it has been in the Western industrial states.     

Transmissions of real economic shocks across the Pacific Rim economies

We use Asian International Input–Output Tables 1995 in measuring trade dependencies of 10 Pacific Rim economies within a regional general equilibrium model. We develop two sets of metrics in measuring the trade dependencies of the economies. First, we use final demand elasticity of exports in measuring the sensitivities of the economies in the model to autonomous changes in the final demand in any other economy in the region. Second, we use a final-demand-weighted index of export elasticities that are induced by variations in the final demand vector of any economy in the model as indicators of the strength of the shocks transmitted across countries.The estimated coefficients have important policy implications. First, these coefficients identify the most vulnerable sectors of the economies in terms of the export/import dependency. Second, these coefficients may be readily used in bilateral and regional trade negotiations. Using these coefficients, policy makers can provide mutual trade concessions in dampening the effects of real and financial shocks transmitted from the trading partners.     

Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking

This study conducts policy-based macro stress testing of the Indian banking sector and also assesses its resilience towards compliance with BASEL norms with the aid of an empirical macro-financial model. It uses scenario analysis and quantitative techniques to capture the impact of macroeconomic stress on the stability of the Indian banks by evaluating financial soundness indicators (credit quality, quantity and quality of capital adequacy). The scenarios are generated through policy-based shocks vis-à-vis other external shocks. The results from the estimation of the model indicate a cointegrating relationship between credit quality and key macroeconomic variables including output growth rate, interest rate, money growth rate and exchange rate. The results of the scenario analysis reveal that the Indian banking sector remains largely sound in terms of total regulatory capital adequacy ratio as per current BASEL II and even BASEL III requirement. The results also show that expansionary monetary policy impacts credit quality and capital adequacy in a positive and significant manner via its effect on the economy’s growth rate.     

Equality and Income Security in Market Economies: What's Wrong with Insurance?

This article critically assesses the marketization of income security, and identifies links between equality, self‐reliance and welfare reform. Marketization in emergent economies is distinguished by a strong separation between the use of insurance for the mainstream economy and relief for the poor. The impact of this model on the shaping of working lives and on market rigidity is discussed through a review of implications in the areas of subsistence, integrity interests and employment transitions. The broad faith in insurance solutions is argued to derive from a highly abstract approach to welfare reform and to result in a lack of attention to uneven and unstable markets, and to self‐government as a motive to work. Evidence of this emerges from a comparison of insurance in its more ideal form (in Chile) with modified models (Brazil and Korea). In the last two cases a developmental orientation has aided in the provision of broad‐based security. Other factors that appear to enhance the importance of direct assistance are also discussed, including aspects of state administration and labour services that limit work opportunity and individual autonomy in uneven economies. The segregated dual approach to income security is argued to be broadly deficient, but not because insurance is inherently wrong. Countries as diverse as Barbados and Denmark show that more cohesive economies are a better foundation for integrating insurance with general welfare and for income security and individual enterprise broadly conceived.     

Intellectual property rights,informal economy,and FDI into developing countries

We explore the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPR), the informal economy, and foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing countries. Intuitively, stronger IPR protection attracts more FDI in countries with small informal economies but not in countries with large informal economies. The intuition is that the informal economy is a proxy for the quality of institutions. In institutionally strong countries, IPR protection promotes FDI by reducing illegal imitation and freeing up more resources for MNCs. Our empirical analysis, based on a threshold effect model, provides some evidence supportive of our model.     

Modeling interest rate cycles in India

The present study tries to examine the behaviour of various Indian interest rates such as call money rate, and yields on secondary market securities with maturity periods of 15–91 days, 1-year, 5-years and 10-years. In the first stage, the study investigates the determinants of interest rates and finds that although the interest rates depend on some domestic macroeconomic variables such as yield spread and expected exchange rate, they are mainly affected by the movements of international interest rates, although with some lags. The policy variables such as Bank Rate and Federal Funds Rate did not show any significant impact on any of the interest rates. Further, it was found that the interest rates in the very recent period show some cyclical movements similar to that of the developed countries. Future behaviour of interest rates show that the present cycle of each interest rate would peak at different time points. This expected behaviour in domestic interest rates could be due to the integration of the domestic economy with the international money and financial market. This trend may be same in most of the emerging economies of Asia.