The transmission of women’s fertility, human capital, and work orientation across immigrant generations

Using the 1995–2011 March Current Population Survey and 1970–2000 Census data, we find that the fertility, education, and labor supply of second-generation women (US-born women with at least one foreign-born parent) are significantly positively affected by the immigrant generation’s levels of these variables, with the effect of the fertility and labor supply of women from the mother’s source country generally larger than that of women from the father’s source country and the effect of the education of men from the father’s source country larger than that of women from the mother’s source country. We present some evidence that suggests our findings for fertility and labor supply are due at least in part to intergenerational transmission of gender roles. Transmission rates for immigrant fertility and labor supply between generations are higher than for education, but there is considerable intergenerational assimilation toward native levels for all three of these outcomes.     

Men and family planning: toward a policy of male involvement

The stated aim of this discussion is to examine the extent of male use of family planning and the nature of men's role in family planning in developing countries. Case studies are presented which are successful examples of strategies for involving men in family planning. Policies that aim to increase male involvement must be sensitive to cultural values, apply to a decentralized government approach toward information and supplies, include adequate political will, and consider the costs and benefits of changing values. A male family planning policy would not always be compatible with all fertility values in developing countries or traditional values of the older population. A policy should stress the value of male individuals contributing as much as possible for their own and others' welfare. Community participation is considered important in order to create a feeling of mutual support. A sizeable investment will be required for mass distribution of contraceptive information. Schools are viewed as an ideal place for educating youth about the problems of high fertility and about use of family planning methods, such as the condom. Religious organizations should be used to educate people about responsible parenthood and to minimize barriers to use of modern contraception. Comic books on how to use condoms are suggested as a good source. Local authorities who are trusted are useful in influencing acceptance among local populations. Local personnel may be trained as information disseminators. Adequate contraceptive information needs to be supplied to a wide audience. Lack of supply and inadequate information are given as two key reasons for insufficient use of male contraception. Condoms should be priced to be affordable to the average person and free to those with no income. Program strategies that proved successful are cited for Thailand's Mechai Viravaidya program and Bali's grass-roots program. The vasectomy program in Bangladesh is also noted for its success. Low levels of condom use are attributed to factors such as price, education, availability, accessibility, culture, religion, and economic conditions. Male sterilization levels can be enhanced with wider availability of clinics and provision of correct information for challenging beliefs that vasectomy is a form of castration.     

European women's employment and fertility again

The author examines questions concerning women's employment and fertility in Europe and considers the implications of relevant economic models "for differences in fertility and labour supply patterns between women and for econometric analysis....I review the main economic models...and explore what extensions to these models may be required. The review of models is limited to those which consider both fertility and employment decisions."     

Adieu Rabenmutter—culture,fertility, female labour supply,the gender wage gap and childcare

This paper studies the effect of cultural attitudes on childcare provision, fertility, female labour supply and the gender wage gap. Cross-country data show that fertility, female labour force participation and childcare provision are positively correlated with each other, while the gender wage gap seems to be negatively correlated with these variables. The paper presents a model with endogenous fertility, female labour supply and childcare choices driven by cultural attitudes which fits these facts. There may exist multiple equilibria: one with zero childcare provision, low fertility and female labour supply and high wage gap and one with high childcare provision, high fertility and female labour supply and low wage gap.     

Birth rates decline as neighbors learn from one another how to control fertility

This article refers to a recent article (by Population Council demographer John Bongaarts and University of Pennsylvania sociology professor Susan Cotts Watkins) on strategies for promoting future global fertility decline. The article emphasizes the importance of the process of social interaction as a powerful force that accelerates the pace of demographic transition. The force of social interaction is frequently overlooked. Social interaction operates through personal networks that connect individuals; national channels of interaction connecting social and territorial communities within a country; and global channels connecting countries. Empirical evidence finds that the most important interaction for fertility change occurs in exchanges between personal networks of small communities. When innovative fertility behavior is adopted by a group within a community, then changes are communicated in an ever widening band. It is expected that countries with multiple channels of linked transportation and communication networks and extensive media facilities would experience more rapid fertility decline. Bongaarts and Watkins argue that the extent of a country's links with a global society help determine the timing of its transition to lower fertility. All countries are connected to some extent by ideas, information, or social influence and are at some level of development. When some countries in a region begin their fertility transition, neighboring countries soon follow. Fertility transition occurs even at low levels of development. Fertility decline can occur rapidly, even if socioeconomic development is modest, once the onset of the transition has occurred.     

福利多元主义视角下城市“老漂族”精神赡养问题研究——以广州市三个典型社区为例

本研究聚焦渐趋普遍的“老漂族”群体异地养老现象,关注其精神健康。以福利多元和精神赡养理论为分析框架,对广州市三个老年流动人口较集中地区的“老漂族”进行问卷调查及访谈,通过多元线性回归分析政府、家庭、社区、市场等主体的服务供给对“老漂族”异地养老精神需求产生的影响,剖析“老漂族”异地精神赡养的需求和供给现状。本文的主要结论是,目前的养老福利托底政策和市场补充供给的不足给“老漂族”带来异地养老尤其是精神赡养上一定的困难,建议更多地发挥家庭、社区和社会组织的作用,提倡养老资源供给模式应将物质服务和精神扶助结合起来,实现养老渠道多样化、社会福利供给主体多元化,形成多元供给主体之间的协调与互补,共同支撑起能够惠及“老漂族”异地精神赡养的养老服务体系。     

International Migration, Sex Ratios, and the Socioeconomic Outcomes of Nonmigrant Mexican Women

This article assesses whether international migration from Mexico affects the marital, fertility, schooling, and employment outcomes of the Mexican women who remain behind by exploiting variation over time as well as across Mexican states in the demographic imbalance between men and women. I construct a gauge of the relative supply of men for women of different age groups based on state-level male and female population counts and the empirically observed propensity of men of specific ages to marry women of specific ages. Using Mexican census data from 1960 through 2000, I estimate a series of models in which the dependent variable is the intercensus change in an average outcome for Mexican women measured by state and for specific age groups, and the key explanatory variable is the change in the relative supply of men to women in that state/age group. I find that the declining relative supply of males positively and significantly affects the proportion of women who have never been married as well as the proportion of women who have never had a child. In addition, states experiencing the largest declines in the relative supply of men also experience relatively large increases in female educational attainment and female employment rates. However, I find little evidence that women who do marry match to men who are younger or less educated than themselves.     

Social Class Differentials During Fertility Decline: England and Wales Revisited

This paper reviews the relationship between landholdings and fertility. Two dimensions of land are identified as salient for fertility behaviour: size of operational holdings and land ownership. It is suggested that these two dimensions and the resulting income streams have disparate effects on fertility. Size of holdings is assumed to have a positive influence on fertility due to the greater labour demands of larger holdings, while land ownership is posited to exert a negative long-term effect because of the increase in old-age security associated with the income returns to equity. In addition to these effects on the demand for children, landholding is also thought to influence the supply of children. A systematic review of the literature finds support for the impact of both dimensions of landholding on fertility preferences, contraceptive behaviour, the proximate determinants and fertility. Both the demand and supply of children appear to be influenced by landholdings. The observed regularities suggest the need for further research on this connection, not the abandonment of this line of inquiry.     

Age-distribution dynamics and aging indexes

I analyze the dynamics of the age distribution as some vital rates change. When the fertility or mortality rate declines, the age distribution often manifests a dynamic stochastic-dominance relationship. I also propose some alternative indexes for measuring population aging. These indexes are closely connected with the age-distribution dynamics and contain more refined information about the distribution of age among the old.     

Unobserved variables and marital status The schooling connection

Studies increasingly indicate that some of the characteristics of individuals are jointly determined with marital status, fertility, and labor supply. This study focuses on the effect of schooling on marital status. A Hausman-type test shows that schooling cannot be legitimately treated as an exogenous determinant of marriage and divorce. It is shown that if schooling is treated as an exogenous variable, the negative effect of schooling on the odds of marriage is underestimated. Further, the results indicate that schooling has a significant negative effect on divorce if it is treated as an exogenous variable; the coefficient for schooling is positive if it is treated as an endogenous variable.I wish to thank Gary Becker, T W. Schultz, and two anonymous reviewers for their comments. In addition, I am grateful for research support from DePaul's College of Commerce and Research Board.     

The labour supply of Indigenous Australian females: the effects of fertility and interactions with the justice system

Indigenous females are among the most disadvantaged groups in Australia; Furthermore outcomes for Indigenous Australians compare unfavourably with those for similar First Nations around the world. There appears to be a demographic transition under way in Indigenous Australia whereby declines in fertility and mortality are likely to lead to an increase in the number of Indigenous people supplying their labour in the near future. This paper examines the determinants of Indigenous female labour force participation with a particular focus on the role of fertility and interaction with the justice system. The analysis controls for the standard determinants of labour supply, but its main contribution is in taking into account the endogeneity of these potential interruptions to labour market participation. These findings are also important because Indigenous Australian females are 22 times more likely to be in prison than other Australian females and hence the analysis has crucial implications for the ability of policy makers to ‘close the gaps’ between Indigenous and other Australians. Once endogeneity of fertility with labour supply is taken into account, there is no significant independent effect on labour force participation and hence policy should focus on the other factors including education and training.     

From low to high fertility in Sulawesi (Indonesia) during the colonial period: explaining the 'first fertility transition'

This paper examines the past transition from low to high fertility which, in Indonesia as elsewhere, preceded the return to lower birth rates. Data from two parts of the island of Sulawesi where fertility rose during the colonial period are used to explain both why it rose, and why it was originally low. Economic conditions, it is argued, were the most important factors, affecting fertility via the supply of income and the demand for labour. Two schematic models of the 'first fertility transition' are proposed. In areas with low population densities and area-extensive forms of agriculture responsive to commercial stimuli, birth rates rose as the growth of commerce raised levels of prosperity, facilitated marriage, and undermined institutions such as debt-slavery which had previously acted to restrict marital fertility. In densely populated areas with labour-intensive agriculture and heavy state taxation in labour, fertility rose in response to demands for women's (and possibly child) labour that did not necessarily lead to gains in income.     

Transforming gompertz's function for fertility analysis: The development of a standard for the relational gompertz function

Summary The relational Gompertz function improves upon the Gompertz for fertility analysis by achieving a better fit in the tails of the distribution. This is obtained by a transformation of the age scale corresponding to an empirical standard. This standard is developed from Coale and Trussell's model and is appropriate for use with populations of high fertility. The model is tested on two sets of data and is shown to produce good estimates of completed fertility even for data truncated at quite early ages. Good results are also obtained for declining fertility.     

Demographic consequences of the 1984–1985 Ethiopian famine

This article analyzes demographic responses to the 1984-1985 Ethiopian famine and compares them with Bongaarts and Cain's (1982) hypothesized responses. After briefly describing the data collection, I estimate the age distribution and the age-specific mortality and fertility rates of Ethiopian famine victims in a resettlement area and compare these with mortality estimates for the 1972-1973 Bangladesh famine and with fertility estimates from the 1981 Ethiopian demographic survey. The results show that the mortality rate among Ethiopian famine victims was about seven times higher than the rate among the Bangladesh victims and that the Ethiopian famine-related mortality was general and not a function of household socioeconomic variables. The data also show a 26 percent lower total fertility rate among famine victims.     

关于中国人口质量制度引导机制的思考

在中国的人口再生产进入低水平生育模式、人口数量将达到顶峰、劳动力的供给即将出现刘易斯拐点的大背景下,受制于资源约束的中国要实现大规模而可持续的发展,最重要的途径就是从人口质量中获得持续的发展动力,而人口质量作为经济增长的主要源泉、可持续发展的动力,在很大程度上要依赖于制度发挥作用,因而,本文依据人口质量对经济增长的作用机理,就存在的中国人口质量存量低、潜能转化率低等问题作了探讨,试图从制度层面,通过机制创新和制度设计形成人口质量的制度引导机制,在提升人口质量存量水平的同时,促进人口质量的潜能向经济发展动力转化,从而实现以人为本的全面可持续发展。     

Gender Equity,Religion, and Fertility in Europe and North America

Religion has historically been a pronatalist force, but because it fosters traditional gender role attitudes, its importance for fertility may wane where gender equity is thought to be emerging as the new natalism. In this study, I used World Values Survey and European Values Survey data from 1989 to 2018 to determine whether more religious Northern countries are slower to develop the widespread egalitarian gender role attitudes associated with fertility recovery. I concluded that the “old natalism” and the “new natalism” do not compete with each other as much as their negative association implies that they might. By tracing the evolution of country‐level gender equity in more‐ and less religious countries of Europe and North America, I showed how country‐level religiosity does not dampen the potential for a gender equity‐stimulated fertility recovery. This paper also contributes by showing that the curvilinear relationship between gender equity and fertility has continued into more recent time periods than covered by previous work.     

How development programs can affect fertility: the case of Bangladesh

Improving living standards and increasing productivity in developing countries may result in fertility reduction. In Bangladesh, government policy stresses rural development and fertility reduction. Programs that raise women's status reduce fertility. Educational level is inversely correlated to childbearing. Women aged 25-29 with a Secondary School Certificate have 2.4 children, versus 4.0 for those with no education. Employment also decreases fertility. Thus, improving the educational and employment status of women could have major effects on fertility. Studying the Bangladesh Rural Social Services program revealed that community organization efforts and self-help programs for economic and social improvement also decrease fertility. Rural electrification programs, which have been emphasized in development planning, contribute to changing attitudes and behavior of residents of these regions. In addition to electrification, improved transportation and communications should enhance the spread of information to rural areas. Agricultural development programs, such as the Comilla development program, have not affected fertility. This is attributed to the concentration of benefits to a few farms, with the majority becoming poorer. Unless agricultural development benefits are widely distributed, there will probably be little effect on fertility. Thus, the development programs most likely to affect fertility are those which emphasize female education and employment, open rural areas to information and ideas, and are open to a whole community.     

Another Child? Fertility Ideals,Resources and Opportunities

Low fertility in most developed countries has prompted policy concern in relation to labour market supply, pensions, and expenditure on health and welfare services as well as policy debate about both the cost of children and the opportunity costs of parenthood. The extent to which family policy interventions can be effective in slowing or reversing fertility decline is much debated. This paper, based on a fertility module of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2005, examines the current fertility, and ideal and expected fertility of a nationally representative sample of 455 parents of reproductive age and focuses on whether they plan to have another child. It compares the characteristics of those who intend to have another child with those who do not, and how parents with one child differ from those with more children. It addresses three questions about family size: (1) fertility ideals, (2) resources and the economic implications of childbearing, and (3) opportunities for childbearing and the effects of a late start on fertility expectations. It concludes that, despite a sustained period of low fertility in Scotland, childbearing ideals are robust and explanations of low fertility must derive from difficulties in realising those ideals. Difficulties in realising fertility aspirations are associated less with resources than with opportunities for childbearing, especially the timing of first birth. Those who delay their first birth are less likely to realise their ideal family size, and their lower fertility is associated with the opportunity costs of childbearing in terms of foregone qualifications, careers and earnings.     

Pearsonian Type I curve and its fertility projection potentials

New procedures are developed in this article for estimating parameters of the Pearsonian Type I curve which are particularly adaptive to factors influencing the pattern of age-specific fertility rates. It is shown that with this model the number of parameters required for the graduation and simulation of these rates can be reduced to only three—total fertility rate, mean and modal ages of fertility. The reduction in the number of fertility parameters offers considerable operational and analytical advantages, and makes the Pearsonian Type I curve particularly appropriate for the construction of a parametric model for fertility projections. In light of the results of empirical tests based on fertility data for Canada, the model’s potential for birth projections appears quite promising.     

Fertility of the american negro in 1830 and 1850

Abstract A comparison of the proportionate age distributions for negroes enumerated in the decennial censuses of the United States in the first half of the rorh century indicates that by 1850, negro fertility apparently had been declining for at least 20 years. This paper develops the relationship of the age distribution of a declining fertility population, where the decline has persisted for less than 25 years, to the stable population with the same current schedules of fertility and mortality. This relationship is used to estimate the negro birth rate and total fertility as of 1850. In turn, these estimates and the relationship of the age distributions of two stable populations with different fertility are used to estimate the negro birth rate and total fertility as of 1830.