中国未来劳动力就业趋势研究

本文采用联合国PDPM中的“就业量 -增加值”函数法对中国未来 2 5年(2 0 0 0 - 2 0 2 5年 )中第一、二、三产业劳动力的需求状况进行了预测 ,并与劳动力供给对比 ,发现中国的高失业状况至少要持续 2 0年时间。同时本文还深入分析了失业长期存在的原因     

Child care, women's employment, and child outcomes

This paper reviews the evidence on the impact of child care and maternal employment in the pre-school years on child outcomes. This topic has long been of interest to economists, developmental psychologists, and scholars from other disciplines, and has been the focus of increased attention in recent years, as research has provided additional evidence about the processes of development in the earliest days, weeks, and years of life.¹  In this paper, I review the evidence on two broad sets of questions: what we know about the potential benefits of early intervention child care programs, and what we know about the effects (whether positive or negative) of maternal employment and child care in the first years of life. The evidence reviewed in this paper suggests that we now know a good deal about both sets of questions. But, this review also suggests that there are important gaps in our knowledge that future work by economists could fruitfully address. Received: 9 December 1999/Accepted: 20 September 2000     

农民工随迁子女高中教育与高中择校、高考移民的辨析及启示

农民工随迁子女高中教育成为继义务教育之后亟需面对和解决的问题。然而,"农民工随迁子女高中教育"与"高中择校"、"高考移民"的模糊性限制了人们正确地认识和有效地解决该问题。基于此,本文对三者共性及差异性进行了辨析和梳理,并在此基础上提出,在政策导向上将三者区别对待,在实践上将"父母社保号/一定年限纳税证明+农民工随迁子女学籍年限"作为农民工随迁子女在流入地接受高中教育的资格,以期为农民工随迁子女高中教育权利的保障进行有益的探索。     

What Shapes Satisfaction with Democracy? Interests,Morals, and the German East–West Divide

Social Indicators Research - Thirty years after reunification, East and West Germany are still characterized by a considerable difference in satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This paper proposes...     

Educational credentials and external effects: A test for the Netherlands

This paper proposes and uses a new test to discriminate between on the one hand the human capital model and on the other hand the credentialists and signalling models. Previous tests used only one source of variation between years spend in education and obtained degrees. Most use the variation among degree holders in the number of years they spend at school and some use the variation in the degrees obtained given the years spend in school. This paper uses both sources of variation in a combined method. It further tests the Stiglitz model of signalling, which hypothesizes that signalling will have positive external effects against other signalling and credentialist model, which hypothesize that signalling, will have negative external effects. Dutch data from the Amenities and services utilisation surveys of 1999 and 2003 (AVO’99, AVO’03) conducted by the ‘Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau’ of the Netherlands is used to test the hypotheses.The main findings of the analysis is that on the one hand degrees are seen as a credential, i.e. the effects of educational degrees outweigh the effect of years of education, but that on the other hand investments in education lead to positive external effects. So the social return of education is higher than the private return, supporting Stiglitz (1975) idea of signalling.     

Cairo and the changing definition of population and development issues

The goal of the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), held in Cairo in September 1994, was to agree on a Programme of Action in the field of population and development which would supersede the Plan of Action agreed to at Bucharest in 1974 and subsequently amended ten years later in Mexico City. The main purpose of the present paper is to characterize some of the principal intellectual and ideological developments of the last 20 years which have had an impact on the definition of this goal. I conclude with some brief comments on the Programme of Action adopted by consensus at the Conference. This is an amended version of the paper I presented at the Seventh National Conference of the Australian Population Association (in a Plenary Session entitled ‘Messages from Cairo’), held in Canberra in September 1994.     

A Proactive Approach to Aging Well for Women Over 45

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on an exploratory two-group, pre- and posttest design study, which employed data triangulation with a convenience sample (n = 120) of women over 45 years aged between 45 and 83 years, living and/or working within the South East Sydney and Illawarra areas of New South Wales. Sixty-nine women recorded the Health Check Log (HCL) (33 were health professionals) to assess and monitor their health over 12 months. The majority found the HCL greatly assisted in monitoring and maintaining their health, and the analyses of the SF-36 health survey suggest that women 45 years and over may benefit by regular use of the HCL.     

Trends in life expectancy in wellbeing

Objectives: This paper describes anddiscusses trends in life expectancy inwellbeing between 1989 and 1998.Methods: Data on wellbeing by theBradburn Affect Balance Scale is obtained fromthe Netherlands Continuous Health InterviewSurveys for the calendar years from 1989 to1998. Using Sullivan's method, life expectancyin wellbeing is calculated.Results: For males at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing increases significantlyfrom 52.7 years in 1989 (90.1% of the totallife expectancy) to 54.4 years in 1998(90.8%). This increase is almost completelycaused by the increase in total lifeexpectancy. For females at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing raises significant from54.4 years in 1989 (84.1%) to 56.2 years in1998 (86.3%). This increase is almostcompletely caused by a decrease in the numberof years in a state of distress.For both males and females at the age of 65,the significant increase of life expectancy inwellbeing exceeds the increase in total lifeexpectancy and is mainly caused by the decreasein number of years in distress.Conclusion: Contrary to life expectancyin good perceived health and to disability freelife expectancy – which show a decreasing trend– the overall wellbeing of the population isincreasing. It seems that aspects in human lifethat contribute to wellbeing or quality of lifeother than physical health are gaining inimportance. This makes life expectancy inwellbeing a less appropriate instrument tomonitor changes in population health, but auseful instrument to measure population qualityof life.     

Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.     

中国城镇居民家庭储蓄水平队列效应分析

利用中国家庭收入调查（ CHIP）数据对城镇居民家庭的储蓄率进行了队列效应的实证研究。分析结果表明,属于不同队列的城镇家庭在储蓄水平上都呈现出相似的“U”型年龄分布,即中年家庭（40－50岁）储蓄率低,年轻家庭（20－40岁）和退休家庭储蓄率较高,这一现象与其他国家的实证研究结果有显著不同。本文认为,中国城镇居民储蓄率的“U”型年龄分布主要是由人口与经济的高速增长带来的：人口高速增长带来的队列规模效应使得面对更大竞争压力的年轻人口储蓄率较高,而经济水平持续增长带来的消费水平增长预期使得接近退休家庭储蓄水平重新上升。     

中国各地区人口预期寿命及地理分布分析

平均预期寿命是世界公认的衡量人类进步的标准。本文以生命表为基础,主要依据我国第六次人口普查资料,计算各省市区的预期寿命并进行相关分析,计算结果表明,2010年中国人口平均预期寿命为78.17岁,男75.86岁,女80.68岁,已进入发达国家行列。预期寿命与婴儿死亡率呈负相关r＝-0.789,与人均国民总收入呈正相关r＝0.604。预期寿命女性比男性长4～7岁,符合一般规律。影响男性寿命低于女性的原因很多,本文重点讨论了遗传因素和生活方式的影响,并对预期寿命的地理分布进行分析。     

Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality

Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC tended to underproject gains, but by less than did Social Security. True e0 was within the ex ante 95% probability interval 97% of the time overall, but intervals were too broad up to 40 years and too narrow after 50 years. Projections to 1998 made after 1945 always contain errors of less than two years. Hypothetical projections for France, Sweden, Japan, and Canada would have done well. Changing age patterns of mortality decline over the century pose problems for the method.     

Starting age and subsequent birth intervals in cohabitational unions in current danish cohorts, 1975

This paper presents some main results of an investigation by life table methods of birth interval data in cohabitational unions (marriages as well as consensual unions) in current Danish cohorts. Our results confirm previous findings that an early age at the start of recorded exposure to childbearing risk is indicative of a rapid pace and high level of subsequent fertility. The analysis modifies previous results and adds several new details regarding cohort trends and the effect of parity at the start of reported cohabitation. For each parity within a period of cohabitation, fertility differentials by reported starting age seem to have diminished from our older cohorts (of age up to 49 years in 1975) to our younger ones (of age less than 30 years in 1975). There are indications of a dramatic change in childbearing behaviour following the arrival of novel attitudes to non-marital cohabitation and childbearing in Denmark about 1967.     

Quality of life,intelligence and mood

We investigated the relationship between quality of life (QOL), general ability and current mood in a sample of young men (N=269, mean age 24.9 years). Intelligence (verbal, spatial and mathematical) and technical ability were uncorrelated with QOL. Current mood such as pleasure, anger, sadness, boredom correlated firmly with QOL. The paper concludes that intelligence seems to be a variable of minor interest for QOL-studies.     

Global patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women

This paper focuses on patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women around the globe in the year 2000, and on the determinants of differences in disease and injury for older ages. Our study uses data from the World Health Organization for women and men in 191 countries. These data include a summary measure of population health, healthy life expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and a complementary measure of the loss of health (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs) due to a comprehensive set of disease and injury causes. We examine two topics in detail: (1) cross-national patterns of female-male differences in healthy life expectancy at age 60; and (2) identification of the major injury and disability causes of disability in women at older ages. Globally, the male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy. The sex gap is highest for Russia (10.0 years) and lowest in North Africa and the Middle East, where males and females have similar levels of healthy life expectancy, and in some cases, females have lower levels of healthy life expectancy. We discuss the implications of the findings for international health policy.     

Has Livability of Japan Gotten Better for 1956–1990?: a Dea Approach

This paper presents an approach for time-series livability assessment using DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), a mathematical programming technique for measuring the relative efficiency of DMUs (Decision Making Units) with multiple inputs and multiple outputs. Regarding each year as a separate DMU in DEA, and replacing the inputs and the outputs with negative and positive social indicators respectively, we evaluate Japan's livability for the period 1956–1990. Results of the analysis using eight social indicators identify 20 DEA livable years out of the 35 and find eight best-balanced years. It is concluded that DEA, which enables non-uniform, multi-dimensional and relative evaluation, can be a valuable analytic tool in quality-of-life research as well. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sense of Place and Health in Hamilton, Ontario: A Case Study

The concept of sense of place has received considerable attention by social scientists in recent years. Research has indicated that a person's sense of place is influenced by a number of factors including the built environment, socio-economic status (SES), well-being and health. Relatively few studies have examined sense of place at the neighbourhood level, particularly among communities exhibiting different levels of SES. This article investigates sense of place among three neighbourhood groups in Hamilton, Ontario representing areas of low, mixed and high SES. It analyses data from a 16-point sense of place scale derived from the Hamilton Household Quality of Life Survey carried out in 2010-2011 among 1,002 respondents. The paper found that sense of place was highest among residents of the high SES neighbourhood group as well as among home owners, people residing in single-detached homes, retired residents and those living in their neighbourhood for more than 10?years. From a health perspective, the paper found that a strong association existed between sense of place and self-perceived mental health across the three neighbourhood groups. Furthermore, by way of regression modeling, the paper examined the factors influencing health-related sense of place. Among the sample of respondents, a strong connection was found between housing, particularly home ownership, and high levels of health-related sense of place.     

Extra-Marital Cohabitation and Fertility

In France, as in many other Western European countries, attitudes and behaviour regarding marriage have changed drastically over the past 20 years. One of the major changes has been the increasing propensity to begin one's matrimonial career outside marriage: two-thirds of first unions begun in 1983–85 were outside marriage. A special survey was carried out at the end of 1985 to collect detailed information on life-courses for a sample of 4,091 women and men aged between 21 and 44 years. In a previous paper, we focused on the characteristics and on the outcome of first unions, with no account of interactions with fertility, which will be the guideline of the present paper.     

Changing Demographic Characteristics and the Family Status of Chinese Women

The model developed in this paper extends Bongaarts's nuclear family model into a general one that accounts for both nuclear and three-generation families, and which is expected to be more widely applicable. In the paper a simulation and comparison of two cohorts of women who are assumed to live out their lives under demographic conditions of China in 1950–70 and 1981 is presented. The status distribution and expected years spent in different parities, marital statuses, being the child of surviving parent(s), being a parent of living children, and having responsibility for both elderly parent(s) and young children etc. are given. The consequences of the dramatic demographic changes are clearly demonstrated.