The growth of families headed by women: 1950–1980

In recent decades, the number of families headed by women has increased dramatically. In this article, we use U.S. census data from 1950 to 1980 to consider the extent to which population growth, fertility change, decreased marriage, increased divorce, and increased household headship have contributed to the growth of female-headed families. For white women, the major source of growth during the 1960s and 1970s was an increase in the number of formerly married mothers due to increased divorce and decreased remarriage. There is a similar pattern for black women for the 1960-1970 period. During the 1970-1980 decade, however, the major source of growth for black women was an increase in the number of never-married mothers due to decreased marriage and increased fertility among nonmarried women.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

Trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003

This paper reports trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003 in the United States. Analyses of census and Current Population Survey data show that educational homogamy decreased from 1940 to 1960 but increased from 1960 to 2003. From 1960 to the early 1970s, increases in educational homogamy were generated by decreasing intermarriage among groups of relatively well-educated persons. College graduates, in particular; were increasingly likely to marry each other rather than those with less education. Beginning in the early 1970s, however; continued increases in the odds of educational homogamy were generated by decreases in intermarriage at both ends of the education distribution. Most striking is the decline in the odds that those with very low levels of education marry up. Intermarriage between college graduates and those with "some college" continued to decline but at a more gradual pace. As intermarriage declined at the extremes of the education distribution, intermarriage among those in the middle portion of the distribution increased. These trends, which are similar for a broad cross section of married couples and for newlyweds, are consistent with a growing social divide between those with very low levels of education and those with more education in the United States.     

韩国人口老龄化过程及其启示

韩国人口老龄化的过程与中国有很多相似之处,经历了20世纪50年代的高生育率和死亡率降低、60年代以后的生育率下降直到目前的超低生育率,韩国人口在世纪之交快速进入老龄化阶段。预计初婚年龄的升高、持续的低生育率和育龄妇女数量的减少将会使韩国人口进一步老化。快速的人口老龄化已经为韩国社会带来了一系列的经济和社会问题,应对老龄化带来的挑战成为国家面临的重大问题。韩国的老龄化过程、现状以及采取相应的对策,将对中国具有启示意义。     

The demographic transition in the Korean peninsula, 1910-1990: South and North Korea compared

North and South Korea have both experienced demographic transition and fertility and mortality declines. The fertility declines came later in North Korea. In 1990, the population was 43.4 million in South Korea and 21.4 million in North Korea and the age and sex compositions were similar. This evolution of population structure occurred despite differences in political systems and fertility determinants. Differences were in the fertility rate and the rate of natural increase. The total fertility rate was 2.5 children in North Korea and 1.6 in South Korea. The rate of natural increase was 18.5 per 1000 in North Korea and 9.8 in South Korea. Until 1910, the Korean peninsula was in the traditional stage characterized by high fertility and mortality. The early transitional stage came during 1910-45 under the Japanese annexation. Health and medical facilities improved and the crude birth rate rose and then declined. With the exception of the war years, population expanded as a function of births, deaths, and international migration. Poor economic conditions in rural areas acted as a push factor for south-directed migration, migration to Japan, and urban migration. Next came the chaotic stage, during 1945-60. South Korean population expanded during this period of political unrest. Repatriation and refugee migration constituted a large proportion of the population increase. Although the war brought high mortality, new medicine and disease treatment reduced the mortality rate after the war. By 1955-60, the crude death rate was 16.1 per 1000 in South Korea. The crude birth rate remained high at 42 per 1000 between 1950-55. The postwar period was characterized by the baby boom and higher fertility than the pre-war period of 1925-45. Total fertility was 6.3 by 1955-60. The late transitional stage occurred during 1960-85 with reduced fertility and continued mortality decline. By 1980-85, total fertility was 2.3 in the closed population. The restabilization stage occurred during 1985-90, and fertility declined to 1.6. In North Korea, strong population control policies precipitated fertility decline. In South Korea, the determinants were contraception, rising marriage age, and increased use of abortion concomitant with improved socioeconomic conditions.     

The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age–period–cohort analysis

In the 1950s and 1960s there was an unprecedented marriage boom in the United States. This was followed in the 1970s by a marriage bust. Some argue that both phenomena are cohort effects, while others argue that they are period effects. The study reported here tested the major period and cohort theories of the marriage boom and bust, by estimating an age–period–cohort model of first marriage for the years 1925–79 using census microdata. The results of the analysis indicate that the marriage boom was mostly a period effect, although there were also cohort influences. More specifically, the hypothesis that the marriage boom was mostly a response to rising wages is shown to be consistent with the data. However, much of the marriage bust can be accounted for by unidentified cohort influences, at least until 1980.     

Educational attainment as a selective factor in marital status transitions in the United States

Data on marital status from the 1940, 1950, and 1960 censuses of the United States are organized to show (1) trends in percentages of men and women who were single, by age and education (grades of school completed); (2) relative education levels of husbands and wives for selected groups of couples in 1940 and I960 with comparisons for the two years; and (3) education levels of women in 1950 by marital status, controlling for age and year of entry into the 1950 marital status. The rate at which single persons married for the first time increased markedly during the decade of the 1940's but much less in the next decade. The 1940's increases occurred for both sexes at all educational levels and at all ages except the oldest. However, the rate of increase was greatest for both sexes in the ages from about 20 to 34 for women and 22 to S4for men (modal age for first marriage is 18 for women and 21 for men). The distribution of percents single by age was about the same in all three censuses for persons with elementary schooling.A trend toward smaller proportions of the single, both men and women, among young persons with college education continued for the entire twenty-year period, despite the lack of such a trend in the 1950's at other age and education levels. However, the available data on education of first-married husbands and wives indicate that the ratio of college-educated husbands to college-educated wives was higher in 1960 than in 1940. Part of the explanation may lie in the relatively high proportions of college-educated women found in the marital statuses "divorced" and "married more than once" in the 1950 Census, particularly at the younger ages and shorter durations; but the data are not adequate for a very satisfactory explanation. For the younger first-married for whom education of partners was cross-tabulated in 1940 and 1960, the proportions of college-educated persons were so much higher in 1960 than in 1940 that the proportions also increased of both husbands and wives at all educational levels who were married to college-educated partners. There was a marked decline in proportions of couples with only elementary schooling.Finally, based on data from the 1950 Census for women (15-59 years of age), the separated group included more with only elementary schooling, as did the widowed. Those remaining single and those married once usually included the highest proportions of college-educated women.     

A tentative discussion on population reproduction in U.S.A. after World War II]

Immigration is an important factor in America's population growth. In the last 200 years over 50 million persons immigrated to the U.S.; 99.6% of the current total population are descendents of those immigrants. In the 1930s, American population decreased by about 7.2/1000, but during the 1950s the annual rate of natural increase rose to 18.5/1000. In the 1960s, this rate began to decrease until the 1970s when it was about 9/1000. By 1981 and 1982, the rate of natural increase declined to 7/1000. These changes are due to the relatively slow decline in the mortality rate of the last 30 years (10.6/1000 in 1945 to 9/1000 in 1981) and to the fluctuations in birth rates (from 19.5/1000 in 1945 to a high of 25.3/1000 in 1957 and back to 16/1000 in 1981). Birth rates are influenced by factors such as the number of fertile women, age structure, fecundity, marriage, family, occupation, and education. In 1950 there were 38,920,000 women aged 15-49, and by 1980 there were 57,630,000. Of these, in 1950, 31.28% were aged 20-29, the most fertile period for women, as compared with 35.04% in 1980. Thus, in postwar America, the changes in birth rate did not follow changes in the number of fertile women. Marriage patterns also underwent changes, particularly in the last 20 years. From 1930 to 1935, the marriage rate was 8.6/1000. By 1945, it rose to 16.4/1000. But during the 1960s, an increasing number of women aged 20-29 years remained unmarried. At the end of the 1970s, there was also an increase in the number of married women who did not have children. Furthermore, the number of divorces increased, an additional reason for a declining birth rate. Changes in family structure also influenced postwar American reproduction. In the last two decades, the traditional family has almost disappeared and the nuclear fammily is on the decline. By 1970 there were more people living alone, single parent families, and unrelated people sharing a domicile, than there were family units. Also, educated women who worked often married at a later age, thus placing restrictions on the birth rate.     

Study on Asia's growing cities: Republic of Korea

Focus in this discussion of migration and urbanization in Korea is on the following: historical perspective, implications of urban growth, urbanization trends and population distribution, patterns of migration, socioeconomic differences, and population redistribution policies. Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in Asia. Attempts to deal successfully with this phenomenon have met with varying degrees of success. Population concentration in the capital region continues to be a problem and has resulted in acute housing shortages, rapidly rising land prices, and on encroachment of urban land use into prime agricultural land surrounding the Seoul metropolitan region. Between 1955-1975 the population of Seoul increased from 1.6 million to 6.9 million for the capital city proper and to 9.4 million for its metropolitan region, including 5 satellite cities. This fringe spillover began in the late 1960s. The metropolitan area, comprising 4 cities around the fast growing city of Busan in the south, was formed in the mid-1970s with 3.2 million people. At this time major policy concerns center on the demographic phenomenon of continued concentrations in the Seoul and Busan regions. Problem issues which persist include nonfarm polarization, regional imbalance, diverging intra-sectoral incomes, and the aging rural labor force. Despite its nearness to the demilitarized zone, Seoul was and continues to be the focal point of economic and educational opportunity. The early 1960s brought little variation in migration and urbanization trends. In 1961 family planning and planned economic development were initiated but their impact came several years later. The overall urban growth rate dropped from 5.4 to 4.6% in the 1960-1966 period, and Seoul's pace of expansion slowed down to an annual average of 6.5%. Yet, the capital continued its urbanizing dominance. By 1975 Korea had 3 cities with a population of over 3 million: Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. In 1975 48.4% of the country's population of 34.7 million lived in the 35 cities designated as urban. Migrants comprised 21.5% of the 1970 national population, and the shift was rural-urban for almost 3/4 of them. Korea's industrial takeoff during the mid-1960s had 2 noteworthy effects: rising urban wages doubled rural income levels in real terms by 1970; and the exodus from the countryside was so intense that the rural population shrank between 1965-1970, for the 1st time since the Korean War. A successful family planning program had helped to lower the annual population growth rate to 1.9% by the late 1970s, but heavy out-migration from rural areas was the major factor.     

Korean patterns of women's labor force participation during the period, 1960-1980

"This article investigates how the patterns of Korean women's labor force participation have changed during the 1960s and the 1970s, [periods] of rapid economic development and social changes. The discussion focuses on the comparison of three sets of cross-sectional data derived from the 1960, 1970 and 1980 [Republic of Korea] censuses. Although not dramatic, the gross rates of women's labor force participation show an upward trend. A very high and rapidly increasing rate of rural women's labor force participation did not result in a big increase in the total rate because of the significant rise in the proportion of the population living in urban areas. However, the employment structure and patterns of women's labor force participation have changed significantly, especially in urban areas."     

Age at marriage and timing of the first birth

Summary An attempt has been made to measure the effect of age at marriage of brides on the timing of the first birth. In Australian vital statistics, first nuptial confinements have been tabulated by age of mothers and by single years of marriage duration in single months for the first two years and by single years for all other durations since 1916. A simple technique has been used to link such data with marriage cohorts. The study briefly reviews the prevailing patterns of the timing of first births by mothers' age at marriage and changes in this pattern since the marriages of the 1925/9 period. The analysis shows that after a period of relative stability of family formation patterns in the 1950s and early 1960s, women married in the late 1960s started postponing the first birth beyond the first two years of marriage. It is suggested that a fraction of the decline in total births recorded in Australia since 1972 can be attributed to the postponement of first nuptial confinements by women married in the late 1960s and early 1970s.     

The Educational Homogamy Gap Between Married and Cohabiting Couples in Latin America

The explosive expansion of non-marital cohabitation in Latin America since the 1970s has led to the narrowing of the gap in educational homogamy between married and cohabiting couples (what we call “homogamy gap”) as shown by our analysis of 29 census samples encompassing eight countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Panama (N = 2,295,160 young couples). Most research on the homogamy gap is limited to a single decade and a small group of developed countries (the United States, Canada, and Europe). We take a historical and cross-national perspective and expand the research to a range of developing countries, where since early colonial times, traditional forms of cohabitation among the poor, uneducated sectors of society have coexisted with marriage, although to widely varying degrees from country to country. In recent decades, cohabitation is emerging in all sectors of society. We find that among married couples, educational homogamy continues to be higher than for those who cohabit, but in recent decades, the difference has narrowed substantially in all countries. We argue that assortative mating between cohabiting and married couples tends to be similar when the contexts in which they are formed are also increasingly similar.     

Birth rate of Beijing population drops nearly 60% in 20 years

The birthrate of the Beijing (China) population dropped by 60% in the last 20 years. Consequently, population reproduction is characterized by a pattern of low birthrate, low mortality rate, and a low growth rate. The birthrate of the Beijing population was 36.30/1000 in 1950 and rose to 43.41/1000 in 1963. During the 1950-63 period, the average annual birthrate of Beijing population reached 36.71/1000 and the number of births was 2.23 million. Since the beginning of the 1970s, the rapid population growth has been effectively checked by great efforts made in practicing family planning. Over the 1970-83 period, the average annual birthrate dropped to 14.9/1000 and the number of births totaled 1.75 million. With the advance of the family planning effort, particularly acceptance of the concept of practicing family planning for the modernization drive, the people's reproductive notion has changed for the better. At this time, more and more men and women of reproductive age have broken away from the influence of old ideas such as "the earlier the couples have their sons, the soonner they will be helped." By 1982, the average age at 1st marriage was 25.8 years for males and 24.7 years for females. This was a remarkable change as compared with the 1960s. According to the 1982 population census, Beijing women over 60 years had 4.83 children, while those in the age groups 55-59, 50-54, 45-49, 40-44, 35-39, 30-34, and 25-29 has 4.81, 4.50, 3.72, 2.95, 2.32, 1.58, and 0.57 children respectively. Today, 0.66 million couples in Beijing volunteer to have only 1 child.     

Sex preference versus number preference: the case of Korea

The author argues that the effect of sex preference must be disentangled from the effect of number preference in Korea. This study tests--with hazard models--the effect of the number of previous children on the next birth according to the sex composition of previous children. Data were obtained from the 1974 Korean Fertility Survey. This paper also analyzes the timing of childbearing in recent periods in order to determine whether replacement-level fertility is temporary or permanent. The ideal number of children declined from 3.9 children in 1965 to 2.1 in 1991. The age-specific fertility rates for ages 20-24 years declined rapidly during the late 1980s. The fertility rates among women aged 25-29 years and 30-34 years increased during 1985-90. The proportion of fertility among women aged 20-29 years increased from 67.9% in 1975 to 86.6% in 1984. Women born in the late baby boom period of the late 1950s to mid-1960s reached prime reproductive age during the late 1980s and 1990s, but the crude birth rate remained about the same during 1985-92. A higher percentage of women (22.4%) born during 1955-59 remained single in 1990. During 1960-90, the percentage of women aged 20-24 years who were married declined. These trends indicate later age at childbearing and an explanation for the temporary nature of below-replacement fertility in the late 1980s. Korean women did not want to have more than 2 children, and the interval between first and second births increased since 1985. Among pregnancies of parity 2 conceived since 1985, over 90% of women with at least one son ended subsequent pregnancies by abortion compared to only 59% without sons. Hazard models of 1974 data reveal that son preference had an important effect on fertility. Fertility was higher among women with only daughters. Findings suggest that the value of sons must be measured at the societal and not at the individual level.     

International marriages in South Korea: The significance of nationality and ethnicity

International marriage has increased drastically in South Korea in recent years, and by 2005, 13.6 per cent of marriages involved a foreign spouse. The purpose of this study is twofold: to explore the demographic demand and supply of foreign spouses in the marriage market in South Korea, and to examine how social positions of foreign wives vary by their place in the marriage market as determined by their nationality and ethnicity. Data show that the demand for foreign spouses is particularly strong among rural never-married and urban divorced Korean men. Among foreign wives, Chinese, especially Korean Chinese, tend to marry divorced Koreans, partly because many of them have also been married before. The Korean Chinese are the most autonomous among five groups of foreign wives examined, showing the highest rates of Korean citizenship, divorce-separation, and employment. Southeast Asian women tend to marry rural never-married men, and they are the most adaptive to the host society in the way they show among the highest rates of Korean citizenship and employment (after controlling for their poor Korean proficiency and short duration in Korea). Their divorce-separation rate is the lowest regardless of such control. This study demonstrates that marriage migrants adaptation to the host society differs significantly by nationality and ethnic origin.     

Delayed childbearing in the U.S.: facts and fictions

Between 1970-82, the proportion of 1st births in the US to women 25 and older rose from 19-36% and the proportion of women still childless at ages 25-34 increased by 56% at about the same time. Although a sharp contrast with the baby boom era of the 1950s and 1960s, todays's epidemic of delayed childbearing is similar to patterns earlier in the 20th century. As then, much is due to delayed age at marriage, but baby boomers now in the their late 20s and early 30s are also delaying childbirth after marriage. The trend stems in part from their economic difficulties as they compete in a tight job market caused both by their large numbers and a turbulent economy. But it is also related to women's increasing education and, in turn, increasing opportunities in and commitment to the labor force, which can be expected to encourage a delayed childbearing even after prospects brighten for young people. Although a diverse group, most of today's delayed childbearers are white, highly educated, 2-career couples. Adequate daytime care for preschool children is a prime concern. Although more employers now offer childcare assistance and flexible work schedules to working parents, the juggle between jobs and childraising can be a strain. On the plus side are delayed childbearers' greater maturity and generally higher incomes, which can ease potential problems created by parent-child age differences as their children grow up. Businesses have been quick to respond to the new market of older, affluent, 1st-time mothers. New methods of treating of circumventing infertility and prenatal detection of chromosomal birth defects can now help overcome potential biological problems that may concern women who choose to delay childbearing past age 30.     

The population and economic issues in West Asia after WW II]

Using statistical data, this report analyzes population and economic issues in West Asia after World War II. The high rate of development as witnessed in West Asian countries after their gaining of political independence following World War II was accompained by an accelerated population growth. This population growth spead unevenly among different areas. Based on surveys of 17 countries in West Asia, the socioeconomic development and rapid rate of population growth have largely affected the population age, sex, urban and rural residential, and economic sector employment structures. With the help of indicators and mathematical methods to plot population development, these countries can be divided into 3 categories based on population development features. The semiindustrial countries demonstrate a gradually slowing population growth rate, most of these countries having experienced a peak period in the growth rate during the time of population transition. The agricultural countries show a natural population growth rate which is generally considered low. The 3rd category, the oil-producing countries, are currently experiencing a peak in population growth. In general, the popuation growth rate has dramatically accelerated in West Asia since World War II. Between 1950-1960 this rate was 2.58%; between 1960-1970, 2.75%; and between 1970-1980, 2.92%. This rate shows an increase of 6.6% between 1950-1960 and 6.2% between 1960-1970. It surpasses the average world population growth rate and most of the developing country growth rates. It has been augmented by post-World War II economic and social developments.     

The changing American family

This Bulletin documents recent changes in American family patterns resulting both from longterm trends in urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth and the disruption of the Great Depression and World War 2, as well as changed attitudes toward marriage, parenthood, divorce, and the roles of women. Following a postwar boom in the 1950s and 1960s, marriage rates have now fallen to levels observed in the early 20th century. Since 1970, the number of unmarried couples living together has more than tripled to 1.9 million in 1983. The divorce rate has now stabilized after more than doubling since 1960, but at the current level, 1/2 of all recent marriages will end in divorce. Most divorced persons remarry fairly quickly, often creating complex families of "step-relatives." With 19% of households with minor children now headed by a women with no husband present, up to 1/2 of all children will live for sometime in a fatherless family before age 18. Over 1/2 of all married women, including 49% of married mothers of preschool children, now hold a paid job outside the home. Working wives boost a family's income by an average 40% but still are expected to shoulder most responsiblility for home and childcare. White women now in their 20s say they expect to have an average of 2 children, but are delaying childbearing to such an extent that 29% could end up childless. Most of the elderly live on their own but usually near children whom they see frequently. Despite changes in traditional family patterns, Americans consistently report that a happy marriage and good family are the most important aspects of life. And though most Americans now live with few or no family members, they maintain active contact with a large network of family.     

Urban growth in Korea, 1970-1980: an application of the human ecological perspective

This study supports the ecological perspective proposed by Duncan (population, environment, organization, and technology) explaining urban population growth. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Korean Population Census and Korean Municipal Yearbook on cities with a minimum size of 20,000-50,000 people (108 cities and towns). Urban growth is most strongly influenced by indigenous labor surplus and the population potential of the city to be in contact with another city. Nine multiple regression variables explained just under 66% of the variance in urban growth. Net migration was influential among those aged 15-24 years. The extent of differentiation of industry affected net migration only among those aged 15-24 years and those aged 35-44 years. Population redistribution was more affected directly by changes in industrial organization, and migration was affected indirectly by environmental and technological effects on organization. Urban growth through migration of older age groups was affected by government expenditure on public works. Urban growth was not much affected by transportation/communication concentration, manufacturing concentration, urban labor surplus, population size, and site. Urban growth was viewed as the interaction between the unemployment rate and the urban wage, following Todaro's equilibrium models. In Korea, larger cities only grew faster during the 1960s. By the 1970s, upper middle-sized cities grew faster. Location was not a significant factor in explaining urban growth, but growth was rapid along a corridor within 100 km from Seoul and 50 km from Pusan, the second largest city in Korea. Caution was urged in interpreting Korea's ecological urban growth patterns as indicative of developing countries.     

Child-spacing differentials for white and non-white couples according to educational level of attainment for the 1/1000 sample of the United States population in 1960

Abstract Despite previous research on the relationship between husband's or wife's level of educational attainment and childbearing and child spacing, relatively few data exist on couples' combined educational attainment which compares whites and non-whites. Further, to date a systematic exploration of available information contained on the 1/1,000 sample of the United States population in 1960 has not been undertaken. This paper utilizes these data and investigates the time intervals between marriage and first birth and between subsequent events to determine what relationships exist between parity and child spacing for white and non-white couples by level of educational attainment.