ESTIMATING THE FISHER EFFECT AND THE STOCHASTIC MONEY GROWTH PROCESS

This paper demonstrates that a change in the stochastic process generating money can alter the relationships between money and inflation and between inflation and interest rates. The extent to which inflation is forecastable is shown to depend significantly on the extent to which money is forecastable. Thus, the greater the persistence and forecastability of money, the greater the likelihood of observing a statistically significant Fisher effect.
US. data over the 1953–86 period are used to demonstrate that instability in the Fisher effect coincides with changes in the stochastic process generating money. There is a significantly stronger Fisher effect during a subsample in which money—and hence inflation—are more predictable.     

CONVERGENCE IN RELATION TO LEVEL OF SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT

A classic version of convergence theory was proposed by Marion Levy as part of his theory of modernization: If and as the level of modernization increases (defined as a higher ratio of reliance upon inanimate energy and tools relative to animate energy), the level of structural uniformity among relatively modernized societies continually increases. I test this hypothesis by using the coefficient of variation (V) as the measure of convergence. I analyze a wide range of variables: level of economic development, capitalist market economy, demographic variables, technology, the state and political democracy, cognitive modernization, health, income inequality and poverty, gender particularism–universalism, and information and communications. Each variable is treated as one test of the hypothesis. The hypothesis is first tested by dividing 201 societies into quartiles representing four levels of development as of 1990, and comparing their V scores at one point in time (around the year 2000). Full confirmation of the hypothesis is a monotonic decline in V scores as we move from the least to the most developed societies; this is observed in 19 out of 51, or 37 percent, of the tests. The second set of tests is a stricter, longitudinal test of the hypothesis. Among the 21 societies already developed in 1965, as their level of development continued to rise from 1965 to the present, they became more convergent in 32 out of 45, or 71 percent, of the tests. Thus, variation in social structure is greater among less modernized than among more modernized societies, and this has implications for theories of globalization.     

THE RELATION BETWEEN NARRATIVE AND MONEY MARKET INDICATORS OF MONETARY POLICY

This paper studies the relation between narrative-based indicators of monetary policy and widely used money market indicators of monetary policy. Three principal findings emerge. First, changes in monetary policy, as measured by the narrative-based policy indices, are associated with persistent changes in the levels of M2 and the monetary base. In contrast, changes in the narrative policy indicators lead to transitory changes in short-term interest rates, nonborrowed reserves, and the spread between the six-month commercial paper rate and the three-month treasury bill rate. Third, these findings are generally robust across different narrative-based policy indices.     

MEASURING AND MODELING INTERGENERATIONAL LINKS IN RELATION TO LONG‐TERM CARE

Long‐term care has profound intergenerational implications. It can be costly for those who need it and onerous for loved ones who provide it. We pinpoint three intergenerational aspects of long‐term care that require further research. One concerns the link between costs of private care and intergenerational wealth transfers. The second concerns the link between participation in care and the work and welfare of family providers. The third relates to intergenerational tensions that these and other late‐in‐life interactions create. We outline innovations in modeling and measurement that would improve understanding of intergenerational linkages and their implementation in appropriate panel data. (JEL D91, I13, J22)     

THE EFFECT OF FISCAL POLICY ON THE SHORT-RUN RELATION BETWEEN NOMINAL INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION

This paper presents a simple empirical model of the relation between the inflation rate and the nominal interest rate. We show that previous results found in the literature may be attributed to specification error and that there are natural explanations for the observed signs of previous Fisher equation estimates. Our results show that fiscal policy shocks may generate short run negative correlations between changes in inflation and changes in the nominal interest rates. These results illustrate the difficulty in discussing the relation between inflation and nominal interest rates without conditioning the analysis with specific assumptions on the course of the economy.     

《一种云》的认知诗学解读

《一种云》是瞿秋白在1931年发表的一首散文诗,描写的是天空被乌云遮盖,日月无光;当彩虹出现时,雷电打开了层层乌云,太阳重新照耀大地。这首散文诗有着深远的社会意义。本文尝试应用认知诗学的理论,从图形-背景、意象图式和概念隐喻视角对该散文诗进行认知解读。     

A DISEQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF A HIRING-HALL LABOR MARKET

This paper analyzes a labor market in which workers possess incomplete information about their exchange opportunities. Within this environment workers allocate time to the acquisition of job-related information. Rules are specified determining where workers will seek employment and how firms will vary wages in response to workers' choices. Assuming a change in workers' notional labor supply, the paper then analyzes the dynamics of labor market disequilibrium. Two principal conclusions emerge: (1) Workers' time costs of acquiring information rise during disequilibrium. (2) In general the final wage differs from the wage that would prevail if a Walrasian auctioneer guided the labor market's adjustment.     

WHEN A WAR IS NOT A WAR:

In this article I juxtapose American media coverage of the Gulf war and the war on abortion in 1991 to trace the meanings and possibilities for identity and activism mobilized by both. While the two wars seem unrelated, I examine the techniques through which the news coverage of both marginalized social protest and women's place within the national imaginary. In the news, protesters and women were positioned outside the sphere of normal politics and reasonable opinion. In this way, the news created a mythic community of "people like us" in opposition to women and activists. Through this marginalization of protest, broadcast news contained the threat of activism to the national imaginary of the United States in both conflicts.     

A COMMON PROPERTY EXPERIMENT WITH A RENEWABLE RESOURCE

This series of three classroom experiments demonstrates the tragedy of the commons and suggests two possible solutions: communication and individual property rights. In the first and second experiments, students jointly own a renewable resource in the form of a plate of M&Ms. Communication is not allowed in the first experiment, whereas in the second experiment students may try to influence each other's desired harvest. The third experiment divides the plate to establish individual property rights.     

A child's imaginary companion: A transitional self

The article explores the use of the imaginary companion by normal children, two to five years of age. Some existing literature on the imaginary companion is reviewed. Three case presentations demonstrate the use of the imaginary companion and its effect on ego development.Major findings are the prevalence of the mechanism of splitting and the use of the imaginary companion as transitional phenomenon by the children. An ensuing discussion relates an object relations understanding of the normal developmental use of splitting and transitional phenomena to the case presentations. The imaginary companion is viewed as a transitional self on the developmental lines of narcissism and object relations.     

A Self-portrait

I was fond of literature from childhood. But I wasstudying hard to become a doctor and never thought ofliving off writing. I began my writing career from the May FourthMovement in 1919. At first, as a member of the FemaleStudents Federation, I wrote some articles for publication.At that time the turbulent Chinese youth's patrioticmovement and the new cultural movement brought me outof the home and campus. I began to witness the pressing