How to integrate strategic planning into your management process

The primary purpose of strategic planning is to enable management to make decisions today which will affect the firm over the long run where the long run is characterized by risk and uncertainty. If strategic planning is to be useful to management it must be an integral part of the decision making process and not merely an appendage to the management process. In this paper we shall define some of the problems involved in integrating strategic planning and strategic planning tools into the decision process. We shall also suggest some possible solutions to these problems.     

Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of “metacriteria” (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.     

Scenario building: an integral methodology for learning,decision-making,and human resource development

Recognizing and managing the complexities of strategic change is a difficult endeavor for organizational leaders, and is one that is increasingly necessary for organizations that exist in uncertain and rapidly changing environments. Organizations, and the individuals within them, must develop expertise and tools to operate effectively in these conditions. Scenario building has gained attention as a methodology that enriches traditional strategic planning methods by helping organizational leaders recognize and better prepare for the critical uncertainties and complexities of forces driving future change. Scenario building is explored in this article to provide HRD professionals with a solid exposure to the art of scenario building. The process is defined and explained, its history briefly explored, and key benefits as a learning and decision-making tool as well as for the field of human resource development are discussed.     

Organizational persistence in the use of war gaming and scenario planning

Even though war gaming and scenario planning are widely used in business contexts, there is little evidence that either practice is associated with superior performance. Why, then, spend the costs? In this paper we address this puzzle and suggest why the extant empirical findings have so far proven limited. We consider the development of these practices and find that they have a substantially entangled and overlapping history, particularly at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. Despite shared historical roots, the treatment of war gaming and scenario planning in the scholarly literature branched out into different streams. This separation is unfortunate because it obscures a better understanding of the premises under which these practices are effective. We propose an analysis of the overlaps and contrasts of war gaming and scenario planning that sets out clear boundary conditions for their use and efficacy. We find that each practice is tailored to provide strategic guidance in a context where the organization is facing different forms of uncertainty. This suggests they may be effective, and thus improve organizational performance, where the relevant uncertainties are operative. Such benefits would be apparent over longer time scales, and only if the relevant boundary conditions are met. However, to the best of our knowledge, no longitudinal empirical test of either war gaming or scenario planning is available. We therefore conclude that more research is needed to ascertain the true relationship between these popular practices and their performance outcomes.     

Strategic planning in an age of uncertainty

Strategic planning and decision making in the face of uncertainty have always presented a serious challenge to top management, but the present scale of uncertainty is unprecedented. Decision makers used to be able to rely on the past to predict the trends of the future. Now they are increasingly being forced to make important decisions that depend upon highly uncertain external factors for which the past offers little guidance. In all areas of business and government, there is a vital need to understand and implement procedures that enable decision makers to deal more effectively with uncertainty for planning and allocating their organizations' resources.Because of differences in their social, political and economic environments, European and Japanese managers are today affected by many acute areas of uncertainty— such as industrial democracy, floating exchange rates, changing social and political values, growing environmental awareness, government regulation, technological change, pollution control regulation, energy cost, and raw material availability—earlier than their counterparts in the U.S.A. These uncertainties affect not only private sector manufacturing industries, but also financial and service industries as well as nationalized industries and government organizations.This article shows how ineffective methods of dealing with uncertainty can lead to serious mistakes with costly consequences. The cost of overconfidence and people's natural but futile tendency to ignore or to try to eliminate uncertainty is illustrated by the crises seen recently in the world steel and shipbuilding industries. The article then demonstrates how decision analysis procedures that focus directly on the major decision points in the strategic plan enable executives not only to include uncertainty directly in their strategic planning, but also to increase their understanding of the decision process and their ability to communicate the results to others.     

A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms’ strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.     

On the product selection and plant dimensioning problem under uncertainty

We present a two-stage full recourse model for strategic production planning under uncertainty, whose aim consists of determining product selection and plant dimensioning. The main uncertain parameters are the product price, demand and production cost. The benefit is given by the product net profit over the time horizon minus the investment depreciation and operation costs. The Value-at-Risk and the reaching probability are considered as risk measures in the objective function to be optimized as alternatives to the maximization of the expected benefit over the scenarios. The uncertainty is represented by a set of scenarios. The problem is formulated as a mixed 0–1 Deterministic Equivalent Model. The strategic decisions to be made in the first stage are represented by 0–1 variables. The tactical decisions to be made in the second stage are represented by continuous variables. An approach for problem solving based on a splitting variable mathematical representation via scenario is considered. The problem uses the Twin Node Family concept within the algorithmic framework known as Branch-and-Fix Coordination for satisfying the nonanticipativity constraints. Some computational experience is reported.     

基于期权合约的供应链协同决策研究

本文在市场需求和价格不稳定的双重背景下,研究以风险规避为目的的供应商如何在供应链管理中运用期权合约实现利润最大化的途径问题。供应商通过在二级供应链中引入实物期权,在购买方需求不确定时可以将其引致的风险转移向供应方,而供应方的风险通过来自期权合约的额外收益在最大程度上被平衡。本文在分析考虑期权因素的决策模型中,研究市场需求以随机分布状态变化时,构建具有期权合约的最优利润最大化模型问题。数值算例验证了期权合约策略模型的可行性。本研究在一定程度上完善了供应链中期权合约的风险规避模型,为供应链企业风险管理的决策依据提供了有用的实践参考价值。     

Strategic planning in Tanzania

The Tanzania Wood Industry Corporation is one of the very few parastatal organizations that have developed and introduced a strategic corporate planning process. The novelty of the idea, the many operational problems that surround the managers and the lack of adequate training are some of the problems that have retarded the development and introduction of corporate planning in Tanzania. In 1980 the new CEO of TWICO contracted a Finnish management consulting firm to audit the whole corporation and to recommend a better management practice. Systems manuals were then developed and a grassroots based strategic corporate planning process was then introduced. Now in its third year, the impact on management is very encouraging.     

Strategizing in an Unpredictable Climate: Exploring Corporate Strategies to Cope with Regulatory Uncertainty

Government regulation of business activities is increasing rapidly, exposing firms to considerable uncertainty and requiring managers to decide on appropriate strategic postures. To help managers make informed decisions, this study compiles a comprehensive overview of strategies to cope with regulatory uncertainty and illustrates their interdependencies and how they can be combined into overall coping postures, as well as offering management guidelines on deciding which to adopt. A literature review identifies a considerable variety of coping strategies, and we apply unique data from a worldwide cross-industry survey to categorize each into one of three types - offensive, defensive or passive. We find that firms aiming to cope with the uncertainty associated with post-Kyoto regulation typically adopt one of four strategic postures, each characterized by a specific combination of these types: ‘daredevils’ rely solely on offensive strategies; ‘coordinators’ combine them with defensive ones, ‘hedgers’ pursue strategies from all three categories while ‘gamblers’ choose not to specifically cope with uncertainty at all. We exemplify the strategies characteristic of each posture, and illustrate their interdependencies by means of case studies in the European airline industry. We identify two main factors managers should consider particularly when deciding on their firm’s strategic posture: the level of regulatory uncertainty they perceive and the firm’s exposure to future regulations, and find that the higher the level of uncertainty, the broader the range of strategies applied, and the more future regulation seems likely to affect a firm, the more actively it seeks to cope with the associated uncertainty.     

Developing strategic thinking

This paper looks at the problem of getting managers to contribute effectively to strategic planning, and focuses on the role of management development approaches in ensuring that this happens. A number of formal, and less formal, management development techniques are discussed in the light of their relevance for developing strategic awareness. The importance of providing exposure to strategic issues at an early stage in managers' careers is stressed, and also the need to encourage managers to take initiatives in obtaining their own development. Some of the most fruitful techniques involve taking full advantage of the ‘natural learning’ that takes place on the job, and those which provide a close integration between management development and the planning process—such as projects and ‘task forces’. Finally the role of senior managers in helping to create and maintain a climate in which strategic abilities can develop is discussed.     

Helping managers to develop strategies

Concepts within strategic management are defined and a framework for strategic analysis and planning is presented. Within the planning operation, corporate strategy and corporate integration are central to strategic management. The timetable largely prescribes the procedural steps involved in strategic analysis and planning, and the character of each of these steps is determined by the frame of reference, or the aims and purpose of strategic managers, which are established during strategic planning. As a practical management tool, the framework developed here offers the possibility to improve management performance and to increase corporate effectiveness and flexibility.     

Organizing for strategic management— A conceptual model

Managing the strategic problems is a complex process. In order to organize this process efficiently in one's own company it is necessary to understand and be able to communicate the basic factors involved. In the author's view there is a need to compile into a model concepts, relations and organizational principles of major importance to successful strategic planning. This article is based on the author's analysis of current literature and his own practical experience in Scandinavia. The article presents a conceptual model for strategic management including the planning process as well as the execution of strategic decisions. This model is related to basic organizational principles and the methodology used in project management.     

A Learning Real Options Framework with Application to Process Design and Capacity Planning

This paper studies the impact of learning on a multi‐staged investment scenario. In contrast to other models in the real options literature in which learning is viewed as a passive consequence of the delay period, this paper quantifies information acquisition by merging statistical decision theory with the real options framework. In this context, real option attributes are discussed from a Bayesian perspective, thresholds are identified for improved decision‐making, and information's impact on downstream decision‐making is discussed. Using real data provided by a firm in the aerospace maintenance, repair, and overhaul industry, the methodology is used to guide a multi‐phased irreversible investment decision involving process design and capacity planning.     

Banks’ Risk Endogenous to Strategic Management Choices

Use of variability of profits and other accounting‐based ratios in order to estimate a firm's risk of insolvency is a well‐established concept in management and economics. We argue that these measures fail to approximate the true level of risk accurately because managers consider other strategic choices and goals when making risky decisions. Instead, we propose an econometric model that incorporates current and past strategic choices to estimate risk from the profit function. Specifically, we extend the well‐established multiplicative error model to allow for the endogeneity of the uncertainty component. We demonstrate the power of the model using a large sample of US banks and show that our estimates predict the accelerated bank risk that led to the subprime crisis in 2007. Our measure of risk also predicts the probability of bank default both in the period of the default but also well in advance of this default and before conventional measures of bank risk.     

A framework for the strategic management of future tyre technology

Strategically managing technology faces one major problem: technology planners and managers who mistake ‘R & D management’ for ‘strategic technology management’. In globally competitive markets, survival and growth of tyre companies will increasingly depend upon the ability to manage technological resources strategically. This article proposes a process model which views the strategic management of technology as ‘techno-business management’, where technology and business strategy, planning and implementation can be facilitated by the use of portfolio frameworks and technology forecasting techniques in analysing and addressing the key strategic management areas of techno-business strategy development and strategy implementation.     

不确定环境下研发投资决策的期权博弈模型

假定产出价格(随机需求)服从带跳的几何布朗运动来模拟研发项目中突发事件和市场的不确定性特点,拓展了用几何布朗运动模拟市场不确定性的双寡头期权博弈模型,同时也是在带跳的几何布朗运动的实物期权方法中融入了竞争策略互动的影响.敏感性分析结果表明随着这两类不确定性的增大,参与双方进入门槛值都变大.突发事件带来的不确定提高会使得参与双方的期权价值降低,但是市场的不确定性变大对于追随者来说等待是有价值的,对领先者的期权价值的影响却是不定的.     

Information for more effective strategic planning

This paper illustrates how an entity—called a ‘strategic data base’ (SDB)—can be developed to provide important information in a form which makes it directly useful in various phases of a strategic planning process. The strategic data bases are concise statements of the organizational and environmental situations which define the organization's most salient problems, opportunities, and constraints. These SDBs may be developed through a participative process involving tasks forces which are made up of managers representing the diverse interests of the organization. The strategic data bases thereby become important informational inputs to planning which can directly serve to enhance the quality of planning decisions. Moreover, the process of developing SDBs can be an important learning device for those middle managers who can become involved in such a process at a much earlier point in their career than that at which they might normally engage substantively in the organization's overall strategic choice process.     

A Hierarchical Product Development Planning Framework

Uncertainty in new product development (NPD) planning embraces market, creative, technological, and process dimensions to a much greater extent than in non‐NPD project planning. Yet, NPD management is becoming increasingly decentralized, both within the firm and across the supply chain. Hence, planning for NPD uncertainty often results in path‐dependent scenarios cutting across the strategic, tactical, and operational levels of planning. To coordinate this resulting complexity, we propose a stochastic hierarchical product development planning framework with multiple recourses, i. e., corrective actions, to maximize performance across a firm's entire NPD program. We also argue the necessity for a fourth planning level, the infrastructural, that reestablishes norms for market projections, technological forecasts, scheduling, and requirements as latent uncertainty in the environment is continually revealed. An illustration from the automotive industry is presented to demonstrate a deployment of our framework. We additionally discuss the applicability of this framework for managing NPD capabilities over time.