Discrimination and Demand: The Effect of International Players on Attendance in Major League Baseball*

Objectives. This article tests the presence of demand‐driven discrimination attributable to foreign‐born players in Major League Baseball (MLB). We quantify the change in demand at MLB games given the number of foreign players on an MLB team. We further measure how matching market population demographics and team demographics affects demand. Methods. We use regression analysis to estimate the effect on attendance of a change in the number of foreign players on a team. We then use these estimates to find the change in revenue for the team. Results. The results show that the effect evolves over time. At the outset of the sample (1985), the net effect of an additional foreign‐born player was a decrease in ticket demand. This effect diminished steadily until 1992, when the net effect became positive, peaking in 2000, and then slightly decreasing until the end of the sample (2005). The matching of team and population demographics was not found to be significant. Conclusions. We discuss the implications of this result on league policy decisions.     

二十一世纪中国经济周期平稳化现象研究(英文)

本文的目的在于回答两个问题：第一，21世纪中国经济周期平稳化的原因何在？第二，21世纪中国经济波动的来源何在？利用统计分析和构造的多方程结构宏观经济模型，我们发现第一个问题的答案几乎完全在于国内因素，包括国内需求冲击的稳定和信贷市场中的自稳定机制；就第二个问题而言，21世纪中国经济波动的最大来源在于国外需求冲击和国内需求冲击——前者对GDP的波动影响较大，而后者则更多地影响CPI。本文的另一个发现是，传统的盯住货币供应量的货币政策对稳定GDP和CPI几乎没有效果。本文的政策建议之一是，在全球危机的背景下，稳定总需求的国内经济刺激政策依然很重要。本文的另一个建议是，为了摆脱全球化的负面影响，我们需要更加依靠城市化而非工业化，并在国内调整各个区域的经济角色。     

India's demand for international reserve and monetary disequilibrium: Reserve adequacy under floating regime

The main aim of this study is to investigate India's demand for international reserve by focusing on the role of national monetary disequilibrium and to present new benchmarks for assessing the adequacy of international reserves. We assessed India's position in terms of reserve adequacy and found that India is well placed and has sufficient stock of international reserves to meet the minimum adequacy requirements. Also, the results reveal that the central bank is holding substantial excess reserves and the related opportunity cost (1.5% of GDP) appears to be quite considerable. Further, the estimates of reserve demand function suggest that scale of foreign trade, uncertainty and profitability considerations play significant role in determining India's long-term reserve demand policies. More importantly, validating the monetary approach to balance of payment, our results show that national monetary disequilibrium does play a crucial role in short-run reserve movements. An excess of money demand (supply) induces an inflow (outflow) of international reserves with an elasticity of 0.56 which also implies that Reserve Bank of India responds to correct the domestic money market disequilibrium; and did not just leave it completely on the mercy of reserve inflows.     

Saving public pensions: Labor migration effects on pension systems in European countries

European countries have experienced population aging and consequent pressure on public pensions. Some European countries, therefore, have welcomed migrants, expecting that the inflow of people will ease the demographic and fiscal problems. It is important to ask if this policy approach has had the intended effects. This paper examines the effects of labor migration on public pension systems. Using error correction models (ECMs) with cross-country time-series data on European countries from 1981 to 2009, this analysis demonstrates that labor migration has deterred the reduction of public pension benefit levels and government expenditure on pension as well as the expansion of private pensions. This implies that labor migration eases the pressure on public pension systems. Migration contributory effects have been larger in countries with Bismarckian pension systems because those countries have experienced greater pressure on public pension systems than other countries.     

Economy-wide effects of cross-border labor mobility: The case of Palestinian employment in Israel

This paper investigates the economy-wide effects of cross-border movements of Palestinian labor for employment in Israel. The integration of Palestinian and Israeli labor markets is unique, as it differs from international labor migration and associated remittances described in the literature. Especially, it departs from the cultural and social dimensions associated with international migration because there is no shift in residence. We find based on an economy-wide model calibrated to a newly developed database of the West Bank economy that increasing Palestinian labor demand in Israel negatively affects the West Bank economy by bidding up domestic wages, reallocating labor away from tradable activities and reducing competitiveness of the Palestinian export sector. However, increasing labor income from Israel has positive welfare effects for Palestinian households. Considering these results, the paper identifies policy options for the Palestinian National Authority.     

文化因素对人口流动的长期影响：基于中国历史经验的实证分析

文化差异作为解释移民活动的决定因素已不是一个新的视角，然而截至目前,学界尚未对两者之间的量化因果关系进行过讨论。本文利用中国历史上的移民数据，采用新的文化差异度量指标（姓氏基因距离）来揭示地区间文化差异对移民活动的因果影响。研究发现：采用姓氏基因距离度量的地区间文化差异对移民行为具有较强的负向影响，即移民数量随着文化差异的缩小而增加，并且即使控制其他经济、地理等因素以及采用工具变量法进行两阶段回归，该结果依然稳健。本文不仅为理解文化差异与移民行为之间的关系提供了扎实的实证证据，同时也对理解中国自10世纪以来的移民特征及其决定因素有所贡献。     

Impact of internal migration on the economic well-being of local workers and school dropouts among children in Vietnam

This study examines the impact of migration on local workers and high school dropouts of local students. A conventional approach without addressing the endogeneity issue may lead to biased results. Our endogeneity-corrected estimates show a positive impact of migration on the monthly wages of local workers. A higher share of migrants increases the probability of local workers with employment contracts, social insurance, and holiday pay. Heterogeneity analysis shows that local workers, no matter their educational level, work experience, or occupation sectors, benefit from the inflow of migrants. Finally, migration inflow lowers the probability of high school dropouts among local students. Our findings resulting from rigorous statistical approaches suggest that internal migration produces positive impacts on the economic well-being of local residents, refuting the argument about the adverse effects associated with internal migration.     

Marriage motivated population movement in the outskirts of Beijing

An analysis of migration among the rural population of China for reasons associated with marriage is presented. Data are from a sample survey undertaken in the outskirts of Beijing in 1982. The authors conclude that marriage is a major cause of rural-urban migration, particularly among women aged 20-29. They suggest that traditional attitudes toward marriage have helped to reinforce a marriage market in Chinese cities that creates a demand for young women from rural areas.     

Effects of case characteristics on teamwork in family meetings

Little empirical research has examined the effects of case characteristics on high‐quality teamwork within family meetings in child welfare. We attempted to fill this gap using 497 child welfare cases in a Midwestern state in the United States. We found that overall teamwork was negatively associated with domestic violence, frequent placement moves, and a permanency plan of adoption, whereas teamwork was positively associated with the length of involvement in the child welfare system. We also examined the relationships between the case characteristics and two components of teamwork. The results showed that domestic violence and the length of the involvement were equally significant factors for both team formation and functioning. The permanency plan of adoption was a significant factor for team formation, but not for team functioning. Finally, family voices and frequent team meetings appeared to be stronger factors for improving both team formation and functioning. The results suggest that families in the child welfare system have different experiences in forming and functioning high‐quality family team meetings. Therefore, it is necessary to customize specific processes and strategies to promote teamwork depending on the child and family's characteristics and situations.     

参照群体、相对位置与微观分配公平感:都市户籍移民与流动人口的比较分析

本文详细考察和比较了都市户籍移民和流动人口分配公平感形塑过程中参照群体选择及相对位置效应的内在逻辑，揭示了社会比较机制的具体作用机理。研究发现，在报告分配公平感时，户籍身份成为都市移民选择参照对象的制度性基础，拥有都市户口者方可成为户籍移民的参照对象，而流动人口的参照群体更为开放和多元，倾向于与所有都市常住居民进行比较。与此同时，即便考虑到社会网络结构、迁移时长、迁移世代等因素，结论仍具稳健性，来源地居民均不会被二者视为参照群体。另一方面，实证结果显示，相对位置距离对分配公平感的形塑作用之于户籍移民和流动人口并无显著差异，同时呈现非对称性特征：参照优势地位者体现了“平等主义”心态，参照劣势地位者则表现出“损失厌恶”的特征；相对位置距离的拉大给参照劣势者因损失带来的厌恶情绪大于参照优势者因获益而产生的满足感知。     

方言距离与城市流动人口犯罪的同群效应——基于广州、深圳、东莞三市的实证分析

在快速城市化过程中,由人口流动带来的区域文化碰撞在推动经济增长的同时,也深刻影响着社会融合。基于中国裁判文书网、《汉语方言大词典》、2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查的数据,本文以广州、深圳、东莞三大人口超千万的人口净流入城市为例进行实证分析,以方言距离为文化差异的代理变量,研究其如何影响城市流动人口的同乡团伙犯罪行为。研究表明,方言距离与流动人口同乡团伙犯罪显著正相关,同群效应是文化差异增加流动人口同乡团伙犯罪率的主要途径之一。本文从方言距离视角解读城市化过程中文化隔阂对城市社会和谐稳定的影响,丰富了文化影响移民犯罪及治理的理论探索,对推进以人为本的新型城镇化具有一定借鉴意义。     

Predicting the Comparative Strengths of National Football Teams*

Objectives. The aim of this study was to identify the chief social and economic factors predicting the strength of national Association Football (soccer) teams. Methods. A theoretical model was developed to establish an appropriate functional form for the relationship between team strength and the number of individuals available for selection. OLS regression was used to predict the performance ratings of 201 national teams. Results. The results showed that the strength of a nation's football team depends on the number of men who regularly play football, the length of its football tradition, the wealth of its population, the percentage of expatriate players in the national team, and climatic conditions. These factors explain 70 percent of the variance in international team ratings. Conclusions. Many of the factors that determine team strength are structural and cannot be manipulated by policymakers. Nations could, however, strengthen their teams by encouraging wider participation in the sport. Poorer nations could develop stronger teams by encouraging their best players to play professional club football abroad, although this might have negative consequences for domestic football.     

外国直接投资对中国环境的影响——来自工业行业面板数据的实证研究(英文)

在Copeland-Taylor模型的基础上引入技术因素,将外国直接投资(FDI)对东道国的环境影响分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应三种机制,并结合中国2001-2009年36个工业行业的面板数据,运用结构计量模型和系统广义矩估计方法对FDI进入程度与污染排放的关系进行经验检验,可以发现:FDI无论是在总体上还是分行业上都有利于减少我国工业的污染排放,其主要原因在于,FDI通过技术引进与扩散带来的正向技术效应超过了负向的规模效应与结构效应。此外,中国当前的外资进入程度距离以环保为目标的最优水平还有一段空间,因此应积极鼓励具有环保技术优势的外资企业的进入,实现节能减排和可持续发展的战略目标。     

Servants of empire: The British training of domestics for Australia, 1926-31

Between 1926 and 1930 the Australian and British governments jointly funded a specialized centre at Market Harborough, England, to train women for domestic service. This centre was the first such institution specifically designed to prepare migrants for employment in a particular occupation in Australia. Although the number of graduates was not significant as a proportion of the domestic service workforce of Australia, and although the scheme was brought to a sudden end when the Depression stopped assisted migration generally, the experiment was important. It demonstrated that domestic servants could be drawn from a 'better type' if training could be applied to raising the status of the occupation. For the British and Australian governments this outcome satisfied a desire to use the assisted immigration of young women to increase the population of Australia and the empire, as well as underpinning a model of society in which bourgeois domesticity reigned.     

TEMPORAL DIMENSIONS OF YOUTH HOMELESSNESS

This article identifies three temporal images of the homeless youth population. The dominant media typification is of an ‘underclass’ with chronic problems. A dissident image contends that most young people experience only short periods of homelessness, and that there is a ‘high turnover’ population. A third account suggests that there are both ‘short-term’ and ‘chronically’ homeless youth, but few individuals in-between. It is a ‘polarised’ image of the population. This article draws on information from a sample of 1,410 homeless young people to assess these accounts. The article theorises temporal concepts and it explains a methodological issue called the ‘point in time dilemma’. The main finding of the study is that the homeless population is characterised by temporal diversity. The basis for the dominant underclass typification is explained, and various policy issues are discussed.     

建设“专志结合”的高素质居家养老服务队伍的思考

随着我国人口老龄化加剧,老年人长期照护和服务的需求越来越大,养老服务专业人才匮乏与养老需求巨大的矛盾日趋突出,加强养老服务人才队伍建设已是我国目前应对人口老龄化亟待解决的问题。本文从培养具备现代养老服务理念、知识与技能的专业化队伍和打造制度化、规范化、常态化的志愿者队伍两个方面,阐述了建设＂专志结合＂的高素质居家养老服务队伍问题。     

我国居民消费需求现状、制约因素及对策研究

国际金融动荡引起我国出口形势恶化,我国经济今后将主要由国内需求特别是消费需求来拉动。当前国内消费需求总量虽在增长,但消费增长低于同期GDP的增长,居民消费率持续走低,城乡居民消费需求不平衡,差距逐年扩大。居民收入的增长缓慢、居民收入差距的持续扩大,从根本上制约了国内消费需求的增长。必须采取相应的政策和措施,加快居民收入增长速度,缩小收入差距,这样才能从根本上解决问题。     

POPULATION AGEING AND THE PUBLIC PURSE: AUSTRALIA IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

A comparative analysis of three decades of OECD public spending change is used to test propositions concerning the likely consequences of population ageing for public expenditure development in coming years. The World Bank and the OECD Secretariat suggest that population ageing has a direct impact on public expenditure through increased spending on pensions, health care and services for the elderly; and an indirect impact through increasing levels of public indebtedness. The analysis here suggests that only the pensions effect is supported by available comparative evidence and that, even here, the relationship is weaker than often implied in the population ageing literature. The vulnerability of different nations to problems arising from population ageing varies widely, with Australia among the least vulnerable.     

Social Welfare Reform Since the 1997 Economic Crisis in Korea: Achievement, Limits, and Future Prospects

Social welfare reform has been implemented in Korea since the 1997 financial crisis. A dominant concern of the reform was on equality and social solidarity. A major means to this end was establishing universalistic social insurance programs like those in developed welfare states. The reform efforts produced some positive results but were not greatly successful. Income polarization and the deteriorating economic status of low-income families have become big social issues. Many low-income families have not gained many benefits from the reformed social security system. The rapid aging of the population is creating an exploding demand for social spending, risking the fiscal sustainability of major social insurance programs. The reform experience suggests that a social welfare system based on western-style universal social insurance may be too expensive to sustain and not very effective in protecting disadvantaged families in Korea. More attention is being paid to expenditure control and efficiency. Social insurance programs may need to be leaner than those in traditional welfare states. Targeted programs, such as the "making work pay" policy, are likely to be expanded more broadly to low-income families. The future of the Korean welfare state may hinge on successful employment support for working families and extensive investment in their human capital.     

“Unexpected and Distressing”: Understanding and Improving the Experience of Transferring Palliative Care Inpatients to Residential Care

The survival of patients with advanced cancer, coupled with the increased presence of end-stage chronic illnesses in an aging population, is leading to a demand in palliative care. Due to the ongoing need for acute-pain and symptom control in hospice/palliative care units, few are able to offer long-stay admission for those whose symptoms have stabilized. When a patient no longer requires specialist palliative care services, transfer from an inpatient palliative care facility may then be necessary. A core component of the role of palliative-care social workers involves working with patients and their families/carers when the care pathway shifts and the option of residential aged care facility (RACF) needs to be considered. This research explored several issues, including the impact of this transition on the patient and their families and on the interdisciplinary health care team treating the patient. An investigation was undertaken to identify concerns and barriers regarding the transition from hospice care to RACF and opportunities were highlighted to improve clinical practice in this area. A tripartite approach was adopted conducting face-to-face interviews with patients, their families/carers, and health care professionals. Members of the interdisciplinary team were interviewed and social workers working in similar inpatient palliative-care facilities undertook telephone interviews to gauge their experiences. A thematic analysis discerned a number of themes highlighting the impact of this transition on key stakeholders and incorporated recommendations to improve or best manage this process. The research has highlighted the difficulties that patients/families encounter in this transition, as well as the emphases of protecting the integrity of the patient and family. This is achieved by holding open and ongoing dialogue, particularly through family meetings and working in collaboration with the patient, the family, and the team. Understanding the experience and impact of this transition on key stakeholders is helpful in building up a knowledge base and to ensure a more effective relationship occurs. This research incorporated the voices of terminally ill patients, families, and members of the health care team in order to understand their views and recommendations for best managing the transition from a hospice/inpatient palliative-care facility to a RACF. This enables their input to have some real impetus in clinical practice and service delivery.