Female‐Headed Families and Poverty in Rural America*

Abstract Employing data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 March supplements of the Current Population Surveys, this study examines changing household and family structure in metro and nonmetro areas and corresponding changes in poverty, emphasizing female‐headed families with children under age 18. We also pay particular attention to the structure and economic conditions of subfamilies with children during this period. Household and family structure in suburban metro and nonmetro areas were quite similar by 2000. In contrast, families and households in nonmetro and metro central city areas were similar in their high prevalence of poverty. Finally, the risk of female‐headed families and subfamilies with children living in poverty is highest for nonmetro residents, and their individual characteristics suppress rather than account for this disadvantage. This pattern persisted across the decades studied, despite economic growth during the 1990s.     

Are the Effects of the Macroeconomy and Social Policies on Poverty Different in Nonmetro Areas in the United States?*

Abstract The macroeconomy and social policies can have substantial influences on poverty in the United States. In this paper, I investigate whether these influences differ across metro and nonmetro areas. To do so, using a 16‐year panel of state‐level data, I estimate state and year fixed effects models separately for metro and nonmetro areas to see if the effects of the macroeconomy and social policies differ between these two areas. These models are estimated using two measures—the poverty rate and the squared poverty gap—and by family type. I find that cyclical forces have a much stronger effect on the poverty rate in nonmetro areas in comparison to metro areas, but the effects are similar for the squared poverty gap; wage growth has a pronounced effect on poverty in metro areas but no effect in nonmetro areas; and state‐level social policies have slightly larger effects in nonmetro areas, but the effects are small.     

Changing Income Inequality in Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1980 to 1990*

Abstract Income inequality has been increasing across the United States, but little is known about changing income inequality in nonmetropolitan counties. Data from the 1980 and 1990 Summary Tape Files of the U.S. Census of Population and Housing are used to estimate ordinary least squares models of change in income inequality. Household income inequality increased in a smaller share of nonmetro than metro counties from 1980 to 1990, and increases in income inequality were influenced more strongly by economic restructuring in nonmetro than in metro counties. Other factors, such as change in household structure, demographic composition, and labor supply and job quality, were generally similar in affecting income inequality in nonmetro and metro counties. The greater importance of economic restructuring in nonmetro counties indicates the lesser diversity and smaller size of local economies, and their greater vulnerability to forces of economic restructuring.     

Changing Economic Opportunities,Family Structure,and Poverty in Rural Areas1

Abstract Instrustrial restructuring in the 1980s ushered in a new pattern of growing economic diversity over geographic space. The objective of this study is to examine the extent and etiology of changing spatial inequality between and within metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas, as measured by increasing or decreasing county poverty rates. Results based on data from the 1980 and 1990 census summary tape files suggest several conclusions. First, poverty rates increased more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties during the 1980s; historical patterns of metro-nonmetro economic convergence slowed over the past decade. Second, poverty rates tended to decline in nonmetro counties with traditionally high rates of poverty, thus providing counter-evidence to arguments suggesting that the gap between traditionally poor and nonpoor nonmetro counties has widened. Third, spatial differences in poverty rates and relative increases in county poverty rates over the 1980s were most strongly associated with women's employment and headship status. The results raise questions about the extent to which traditional rural economic development strategies address the potentially deleterious economic effects of rising percentages of poor female-headed families.     

Race,Residence, and Underemployment: Fifty Years in Comparative Perspective, 1968–2017

High underemployment has been a chronic structural feature of the rural United States for decades. In this paper, we assess whether and how inequalities in underemployment between metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas have changed over the course of the last five decades. Drawing on data from the March Current Population Survey from 1968 to 2017, we analyze inequality in the prevalence of underemployment between metro and nonmetro areas of the United States, paying special attention to differences between white, black, and Hispanic workers. Our results show that the underlying risk of underemployment has increased in both metro and nonmetro areas over the last 50 years. Nonmetro workers have consistently faced greater employment hardship compared to their metro counterparts, and these differences cannot be fully explained by differences in population characteristics. Nonmetro ethnoracial minorities have experienced particularly poor labor market outcomes. The disadvantage of ethnoracial minority status and rural residence is especially pronounced for nonmetro black workers, among whom underemployment has remained persistently high with only modest convergence with other workers. Hispanic workers also face an elevated risk of underemployment, but we observe a unique convergence between metro and nonmetro workers within this population.     

The Effects of Metropolitan Residence on the Off-Farm Earnings of Farm Families in the United States1

Abstract Previous research on the effects of urbanization on farming and farm families has focused on the consequences of urban expansion on farming practice rather than on the well-being of farm families. Proximity to urban areas has been found to alter the way farm families utilize the nonfarm labor market. In this study, the off-farm earnings of husbands and wives in farm families are compared across metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas using data from the March supplement to the 1989 Current Population Survey. Censored regression models (tobit) and decomposition are used to demonstrate the effects of nonfarm labor market differences on off-farm labor force participation and earnings. The analysis reveals that farm family members, as expected, have significantly higher rates of participation and earnings in metropolitan areas. But this analysis also reveals that increases in off-farm participation are likely to have a larger effect on total off-farm earnings in nonmetropolitan areas than returns to those already working off-farm. The potential for increases in off-farm earnings will be underestimated in nonmetro areas when changes in participation in the off-farm labor market are not taken into account.     

Earnings Inequality in the Nonmetropolitan United States: 1967–19901

Abstract Nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) inequality patterns are contrasted with those of metropolitan (metro) areas to assess the utility of neoclassical and restructuring theoretical frameworks. Inequality measures are constructed from March Current Population Surveys for the years 1968–1991. Results indicate that inequality is greater in nonmetro areas than in metro areas. Results of decomposition procedures suggest that the observed inequality is due to a mix of neoclassical and restructuring factors that account for more inequality in metro than nonmetro areas. National policies must take account of metro/nonmetro differences in patterns and sources of inequality.     

Race,Ethnicity, and Underemployment in Nonmetropolitan America: A 30‐Year Profile*

Abstract Historically, rural racial and ethnic minorities have been among the most economically disadvantaged groups in the United States. Key to understanding economic deprivation is employment hardship, trends in which serve as a benchmark for progress toward racial and ethnic equality. We conceptualize employment hardship as underemployment, which goes beyond unemployment to include discouraged workers, involuntary part‐time workers, and the working poor. Analyzing data from the March Current Population Surveys of 1968 through 1998, we find that (1) there are large and persistent racial and ethnic inequalities in underemployment prevalence; (2) these disadvantages are explained only partially by other predictors of underemployment; (3) nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) minorities are more likely than either all metropolitan (metro) or central‐city minorities to be underemployed; (4) black‐white inequality has held steady overall, though it has declined markedly in nonmetro areas; and (5) Hispanic‐white inequality has increased; this trend, however, is restricted to metro areas, central cities in particular.     

The Changing Spatial Concentration of America's Rural Poor Population*

Abstract This paper documents changing patterns of concentrated poverty in nonmetro areas. Data from the Decennial U.S. Census Summary Files show that poverty rates—both overall and for children—declined more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties in the 1990s. The 1990s also brought large reductions in the number of high‐poverty nonmetro counties and declines in the share of rural people, including rural poor people, who were living in them. This suggests that America's rural pockets of poverty may be “drying up” and that spatial inequality in nonmetro America declined over the 1990s, at least at the county level. On a less optimistic note, concentrated poverty among rural minorities remains exceptionally high. Roughly one‐half of all rural blacks and one‐third of rural Hispanics live in poor counties. Poor minorities are even more highly concentrated in poor areas. Rural children—especially rural minority children—have poverty rates well above national and nonmetro rates, the concentration of rural minority children is often extreme (i.e., over 80% lived in high‐poverty counties), and the number of nonmetro counties with high levels of persistent child poverty remains high (over 600 counties). Rural poor children may be more disadvantaged than ever, especially if measured by their lack of access to opportunities and divergence with children living elsewhere. Patterns of poverty among rural children—who often grow up to be poor adults— suggest that recent declines in concentrated rural poverty may be short‐lived.     

Poor People in Poor Places: Local Opportunity Structures and Household Poverty*

Abstract Accounts of poverty generally fall into either “individualist” or “structuralist” camps. Often these are seen as irreconcilable and incompatible competing perspectives. This paper integrates individualist and structuralist accounts of poverty by examining the relationship between “person poverty” and “place poverty” in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan labor markets, using a multilevel framework. I fashion a general model of poverty production and allocation, drawing on the labor market ecology perspective. After a discussion of this perspective, I develop a multilevel framework for analyzing data from the 1990 Census PUMS‐L sample, STF‐3c, and other sources to show how compositional and contextual factors affect households' likelihoods of being in poverty. These multilevel models also allow us to estimate the degree to which labor market conditions influence the magnitude of household labor supply characteristics. Results suggest that both compositional and contextual factors contribute to the metro‐nonmetro difference in poverty rates, and that the effects of employment vary in accordance with labor market characteristics.     

Changing Linkages Between Work and Poverty in Rural America1

Abstract The changing relationship between work and poverty in non-metropolitan (nonmetro) America is documented using data from the 1980 and 1990 March supplements of the Current Population Survey. Specifically, this paper assesses changing differentials in the proportion of poor people who are working; documents the rapid rise in poverty among nonmetro and metropolitan (metro) workers during the 1979—1989 period, especially among young adults and females; and provides evidence of growing inequality between metro and nonmetro workers, a pattern that cannot be explained by differences in work attachment, human capital, or job characteristics. The results imply that poverty is a persistent if not increasingly harsh reality for workers in rural America.     

Nonmetropolitan Poor Children and Reliance on Public Assistance1

Abstract This research documents trends from 1970 through 1990 in the utilization and ameliorative effects of public assistance among poor children in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) and metropolitan (metro) America. Results indicate that the families of nonmetro poor children rely more heavily on parental earnings and less so on public assistance when compared to their metro counterparts; that there was a sharp rise over the period in reliance on public assistance, especially among nonmetro children, and a corresponding decline in reliance on earnings; that the ability of public assistance to ameliorate child poverty is modest; and that while the ameliorative effects are always greater in metro than nonmetro areas, this disparity declined over the 1980s owing partially to improvement in nonmetro areas.     

Becoming Poor: The Experiences of Elders1

Elderly Americans residing in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas have higher poverty prevalence than their metropolitan (metro) counterparts. Data from both the response and nonresponse files of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1988 wave) are analyzed to establish the extent to which this disadvantage also occurs in the length of poverty spells and the risk of becoming poor at older ages. Specifically, for individuals aged 55 and older Kaplan-Meier survival functions and multivariate discrete-time hazards models are estimated to document residential differences in the poverty risks of metro and nonmetro men and women. Nonpoor nonmetro elders are much more likely to become poor than metro elders. These results hold when controlling for race, education, marital status, age, change in work effort, becoming widowed, and types of income received.     

State Welfare Rules,TANF Exits,and Geographic Context: Does Place Matter?*

Abstract This research compares the likelihood of exiting TANF with and without employment and the effects of important state TANF rules on welfare exits in more disadvantaged (large Rustbelt cities and poor southern nonmetro) and less disadvantaged (other metro and other nonmetro) areas during the 1996–2003 post‐welfare reform period. Hierarchical competing risk models using individual‐level data from the 1996–99 and 2001–03 Panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation merged with state‐level data from various sources show that female TANF participants in poor southern nonmetro areas are the least likely to exit TANF with work, and participants in large Rustbelt cities are less likely to exit TANF with work than those in other metro areas. Non‐work TANF exits are more likely to occur in other nonmetro areas than in other metro areas. Importantly, the effects of state welfare rules on TANF exits differ across places of residence. For example, stringent time limit policies promote work exits in large Rustbelt cities but promote non‐work exits in poor southern nonmetro areas. More lenient earned income disregards are significantly related to remaining on TANF in poor southern nonmetro areas but promote work exits in all other places. Findings from this paper imply that states should not take a “one‐size‐fits‐all approach” to reduce welfare caseloads.     

Returns vs. Endowments in the Earnings Attainment Process for Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Men and Women1

Abstract Three explanations typically are offered for differences in earnings: (1) individuals have different levels of human capital and hold different jobs (endowments differ), (2) rewards to human capital and job characteristics differ (returns differ), and (3) some combination of differences in endowments and returns explain variations in earnings. We argue that the structure of labor markets in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas differs from that in metropolitan (metro) areas such that returns, as well as endowments, vary. These variations in returns favor metropolitan workers, explaining the predominant portion of the metro/nonmetro earnings gap. We examine the earnings differences for metro and nonmetro men and women in both 1977 and 1987, showing that returns outweigh endowments in explaining that gap for both men and women, although their importance decreases over the ten-year period. Research to improve our understanding of how differences in labor market structure produce differential returns has begun and may yield yet another avenue for action for policymakers interested in reducing metro/nonmetro inequalities.     

POVERTY,PRICES, AND PLACE: HOW SENSITIVE IS THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POVERTY TO COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENTS?

This article examines how accounting for cost-of-living differences across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas affects measured rates of poverty. The spatial price index used is based on the Fair Market Rent data and was developed by the Census Bureau for use in its experimental poverty research program. Following U.S. federal definitions, poverty in nonmetro areas has been consistently higher than it has been in metro areas. Using the Fair Market Rent index to adjust for differences in cost of living results in a complete reversal of nonmetro-metro rankings in terms of prevalence, depth, and severity of poverty for every year examined (1991 to 2002). (JEL I32 , R1 , C81 )     

Migration of Retirement‐Age Blacks to Nonmetropolitan Areas in the 1990s

Older blacks migrated to nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) communities in the 1990s to a degree not true of the past. Some of the nonmetro counties that attracted them are well‐known retirement areas also favored by other retirees, mostly whites. Two‐thirds of black retirement counties, however, are areas in the Old South that are not attracting other retirees at a substantial rate, if at all. Although the data indicate significant rates of retirement‐age blacks migrating to 85 nonmetro counties, most migration by older blacks is to metro destinations.     

Poverty,Welfare, and the Livelihood Strategies of Nonmetropolitan Single Mothers*

Abstract Using the National Survey of Family Growth, we document nonmetropolitan and metropolitan single mothers' economic livelihood strategies. We have three objectives: (1) examine differences in employment, cohabitation, co‐residence with other adults, and welfare receipt; (2) evaluate how these livelihood strategies are associated with economic well‐being; and (3) identify key metro‐nonmetro differences in the effectiveness of these livelihood strategies in improving the economic well‐being of single mothers. We find surprisingly similar livelihood strategies in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas. Employment, cohabitation, and co‐residence are strongly associated with economic well‐being. However, nonmetro single mothers are less likely than metropolitan mothers to benefit economically from full‐time employment. Given our results, “work‐first” policies are likely to be less efficacious in nonmetropolitan areas. Indeed, nonmetropolitan single mothers are often “triply disadvantaged” compared to their metro counterparts; they experience higher rates of poverty, higher barriers to welfare receipt, and lower economic returns from other livelihood strategies.     

Socioeconomic Performance in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas during the 1980s

The socioeconomic gap between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas increased during the 1980s. We test three competing explanations for this trend during the 1980s: overdependence on manufacturing, especially in nonmetro labor markets, the emergence of producer services as a catalyst of socioeconomic growth, and federal spending. Using a model that is informed by a variety of perspectives in sociology and economic geography, and commuter zones (CZs) as spatial units of analysis, we estimate the effects of manufacturing concentration, producer service concentration, and federal spending on per capita income, per capita earnings, and private nonfarm employment growth during the 1983–1988 business cycle recovery. The OLS and interaction models show that all three factors help explain why metro areas outperformed nonmetro areas during this time period. The effects of producer service concentration, however, best fit with our expectations. Implications of our findings are discussed.     

Residence and Income Inequality: Effects on Mortality Among U.S. Counties

Abstract Despite lower average incomes, greater percentages living in poverty, lower levels of health insurance, less preventive health care, and poorer health status, nonmetropolitan residents have been found to experience lower mortality than their metropolitan counterparts. Several pathways through which residence influences mortality have been proposed. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of income inequality on residential differentials in mortality. Using data from the Compressed Mortality File for counties in the coterminous United States for 1990, we estimate weighted least squares models of total mortality for 3,067 counties, and separately for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Mortality is lower in nonmetropolitan counties than in metropolitan counties, once rates are standardized for age, sex, and race. Moreover, income inequality exerts stronger effects in nonmetro counties, an effect that persists when per capita income, median household size, and racial composition are controlled. The percentage of the population that is black exerts an independent effect on mortality in both metro and non‐metro counties.