广州城市居民气候变化风险认知分析

气候变化风险认知是指个人或群体对以气候变暖为特征的气候变化的客观认识以及对已受到或将受到这种风险影响或损失的可能性的评估与判断,主要包括气候变化风险事件认知、风险源认知、风险后果认知以及风险责任认知四个方面。广州城市居民气候变化风险认知的问卷调查结果显示,公众对气候变化风险源的认知普遍高于气候变化风险事件;公众对气候变化风险后果的认知程度较高,对＂危及子孙后代＂、＂灾难性＂的风险后果认同率最高;政府、企业在应对气候变化中的责任最大。     

Who Wants to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Objective . We examine cognitive, economic, and partisan heuristic theories of why some people express support for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Methods . Data come from a mail survey of 623 residents of central Pennsylvania, a region in which mitigation costs exceed potential benefits from slowing the rate of global warming. Results . Ordinary least squares analysis shows that people who can accurately identify the causes of climate change and who expect bad consequences from climate change are likely to support both government anti-fossil fuel initiatives and voluntary actions. Economic circumstances and anxieties are not important predictors, but the belief that environmental protection efforts do not threaten jobs for people like the respondent, limit personal freedoms, and hurt the economy is a strong predictor. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support government efforts to reduce emissions. Conclusions . Cognitive explanations of support for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are more powerful than economic or partisan heuristic ones. People want to reduce emissions if they understand the causes of climate change, if they perceive substantial risks from climate change if average surface temperatures increase, and if they think climate change mitigation policies will not cost them their jobs.     

Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives: The Partisan Impact of Spatial Proximity to the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. In this study, we examine how contextual factors influence voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives using California's Propositions 187 and 227. We argue that spatial proximity to the border is associated with voting behavior on nativist initiatives. Methods. To examine the influence of environmental factors on Anglo voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives, we utilize California Field Polls, U.S. Census data, and spatially referenced data generated using GIS software. Results. The results indicate that spatial proximity to the border is an important component in individual‐level voting on nativist initiatives and that the impact of proximity to the border on the vote for Propositions 187 and 227 varies as a function of individual‐level partisan affiliation. Conclusions. These findings hold implications for future research regarding the influence of geospatial boundaries and political behavior.     

Children's Attention to Others' Beliefs during Persuasion: Improvised and Selected Arguments to Puppets and People

Until now children's attention to the beliefs of people they wish to persuade has been examined experimentally via tasks that were artificial in important respects. To determine whether such research has underestimated children's psychological perspective taking, two studies that manipulated task elements pertinent to ecological validity were conducted. Children in three age groups (3, 4/5, and 6/7 years) were asked (forced‐choice and open‐ended formats) how best to persuade puppets and people, with differing beliefs, to pet and play with various toy animals. Children offered as many or more belief‐relevant arguments in response to forced‐choice as to open‐ended questions. Only the oldest group attended to beliefs more when persuading a person compared with a puppet. Even on more realistic tasks, significant improvement with age across task formats confirmed a developmental trajectory in line with extant reports of children's belief reasoning. The findings support the idea that enhanced social competence corresponds specifically to children's increasing attention to beliefs in social interactions such as persuasion.     

A new model of the development of deception: Disentangling the role of false‐belief understanding in deceptive ability

“Deception” is defined predominantly as the intentional attempt to create false‐beliefs in others. However, the intentionality behind early acts of deception and its relation to false‐belief understanding remain unresolved. In this article, we offer a three‐stage theoretical model of the development of deception in human ontogeny. We posit that at any age, human deception is an intentional action, but its form changes according to the level of the deceiver's intentionality. As the primary function of deception is to influence the behaviour of others, we argue that first‐stage deceptions‐in‐action involves only in the analysis of behaviours and perceptual access, not beliefs. In our view, the ability to deceive and false‐belief understanding are eventually inter‐connected, but false‐belief understanding is not essential for the earliest form of deception. Based on empirical findings, which suggest that by observing the results of early deceptions children build their knowledge of mental states as causes of human actions, we claim that the second stage of deception is representational deception. Further, as the understanding of beliefs becomes more advanced, the effectiveness of children's deception increases, and new forms of reflective deception (the third stage) emerge. Future directions for research are outlined, and limitations of the current model are discussed.     

O Other,Where Art Thou? Support for Multiparty Politics in the United States*

Objective. We test hypotheses about support for multiparty politics in the United States. We expect that individual‐level attitudes and state‐level partisan context determine who supports having more parties. Methods. Survey data are used to model attitudes about having additional parties to challenge Democrats and Republicans. Results. Self‐identified partisans are opposed to additional parties, but independents who “lean” toward a major party are most supportive. Independents who say they are closer to Democrats, as well as independents who say they are closer to Republicans, tend to support having new parties. The latter effect is contingent on a state's partisan context. Independents closer to Republicans are most receptive to additional parties in states where fewer conservative representatives are elected. Conclusions. Support for multiparty‐ism among “leaning” independents challenges our understanding of how they may be similar to partisan identifiers, and illustrates that a base for new parties may exist in the “mainstream” public if electoral rules were changed.     

人类活动影响二氧化碳排放研究进展

人类社会经济活动导致的大气中温室气体浓度上升是诱发全球变暖的主要因素之一,关于全球变暖的严峻后果以及与人类活动之间关系的证据,近年来以日新月异的速度增长,越来越不容置疑,人类活动与温室气体排放之间的关系成为气候变化研究领域的热点之一。对经济发展、能源消费、贸易活动等人类活动与温室气体排放之间关系、减排政策措施等问题的相关研究,可为进一步开展经济与气候、环境协调发展研究提供前提和基础。     

Attributing emotions to false beliefs: Development across discrete emotions

Emotion false belief (EFB) is the ability to correctly predict people's emotions given that they hold a false belief (FB). Accumulating evidence suggests that EFB understanding develops after FB understanding; however, the literature presents inconsistencies in this lag. The present study investigated the development of EFB in 85 four‐ and six‐year‐olds, and systematically compared this development to FB understanding across different emotions. Controlling for verbal ability and task demands, 6‐year‐olds scored significantly better on EFB tasks than 4‐year‐olds, and 6‐year‐olds' performance was better than chance. Performance did not vary by emotion. The data supported a developmental precedence of FB to EFB. Results suggest that children's acquisition of EFB is not due solely to verbal ability, FB understanding, or discrete emotion understanding; attributing emotions to beliefs represents a conceptual change in emotion understanding that occurs holistically. These conclusions are discussed in terms of socioemotional development.     

气候变化冷思考

气候变化事关每一个人,人们有权利听到“不同的声音”,以确保正确的应对气候变化的行动。气候是否在变暖？气候变冷说和气候不变论都是对气候变暖的质疑,科学界内部对气候变暖尚未形成完全一致的看法。气候稳定是否存在？人们试图实现的可能不是稳定的气候,而是人们所熟悉的气候。气候变化是自然的还是人为的？相对于自然界产生的二氧化碳等温室气体而言,人类产生的二氧化碳总量微不足道,把可能的气候变暖归咎于人类活动是武断的。人类活动总是消极的吗？只有将自然因素引起的气候变化与人类活动引起的气候变化进行对比研究,才能得出具有实质意义的结论。气候变暖一定是坏事吗？如果气候变化的收益远远超过损失,那么气候变化或许会是一件好事。是否一切负面问题都与气候变化有关？很多事件与全球气候变化趋势没有必然联系,气候变化与农业、公共健康和生物多样性没有直接关系。科学家、政治家和其他学者将各类负面事件归咎于气候变化,其原因很可能是为了实现气候寻租,谋取经济利益,争取国际发展权。神学家们特别关注气候变化问题,因为气候变化及其引发的危机使旧宗教与气候变化的新宗教结成了联盟,人们因排放温室气体而犯了“气候罪”,这是人类新的“原罪”。     

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act*

Objective. The goal of the study is to empirically assess the extent of partisan and incumbent gerrymandering in the 2000 congressional redistricting. Critics of congressional redistricting have argued that recent partisan gerrymandering severely undermines electoral competitiveness to the point of violating constitutional equal protection standards. Method. We first analyze the legal precedents and arguments central to the contemporary redistricting debate. We then analyze district‐level data measuring the change in a congressional incumbent's presidential party vote share before and after the 2000 redistricting. We conduct regression analyses that test for partisan and incumbent gerrymandering effects with an eye toward noting implications for the Voting Rights Act, particularly majority‐minority districting. Results. We find that recent redistricting significantly contributed to a further decline in electoral competitiveness; however, most of this decline in competitiveness came through incumbency protection, not partisan gerrymandering. Majority‐minority districts lost about 5 percent incumbent party vote share, though only 3 percent in southern states. Conclusion. Given these results, we conclude that the logic of partisan gerrymandering is at variance with the mandate of racial redistricting. One effect of establishing a strict judicial standard limiting statewide partisan biases would be to restrict states' capacity to draw majority‐minority districts.     

The Developmental Progression of Understanding of Mind during a Hiding Game

In this longitudinal study, 52 typically developing preschoolers engaged in a hiding game with their mothers when children were 42‐, 54‐, and 66‐months old. Children's understanding of mind, positive affect, and engagement with the task were rated, and mothers' utterances were coded for role and content. Analyses confirmed that some facets of children's understanding of mind developed sequentially; specifically, they expressed an understanding of knowledge access before an understanding of deception and false beliefs, and expressed an understanding of deception before an understanding of false beliefs. Children's understanding of mind increased across visits and positively correlated with false belief task performance. Results suggest that mothers may tailor the content of their utterances to the child's growing expertise, but the role of mothers' utterances did not change. Observing preschoolers engaged in a playful hiding game revealed that children's understanding of mind not only increased with age but also developed sequentially.     

Institutional and District‐Level Sources of Competition in State Legislative Elections*

Objectives. What are the sources of partisan competition in state legislative elections? Specifically, what impact do institutional features have relative to district‐level conditions on competition between party nominees? Methods. Using data from 30 states in 1994 and 1996, a range of factors are examined to determine their influence on both the likelihood that a race is contested and the degree of competition that results. Results. Multiple regression analyses indicate that a district's characteristics, measured as social and partisan diversity, have a strong and durable influence on elections. Contested elections are more likely and competition levels are higher in districts with heterogeneous populations. Institutional characteristics such as legislative professionalism also have a large influence, although the direction of their impact varies by stage of the electoral process examined. For example, professionalism increases the likelihood that an election is contested, but leads to a lower level of competition between opposing candidates. Conclusions. District‐level conditions have a large influence on competition; however, incentives created by institutional features are also critical for understanding the competitiveness of state legislative elections.     

Parents' beliefs about children's emotions,children's emotion understanding,and classroom adjustment in middle childhood

To explore how parental socialization of emotion may influence children's emotion understanding, which then guides children's interpretations of emotion‐related situations across contexts, we examined the pathways between socialization of emotion and children's adjustment in the classroom, with children's emotion understanding as an intervening variable. Specifically, children's emotion understanding was examined as a mediator of associations between mothers' beliefs about the value and danger of children's emotions and children's adjustment in the classroom within an SEM framework. Classroom adjustment was estimated as a latent variable and included social, emotional, and behavioral indices. Covariates included maternal education, and child gender and ethnicity. Participants were a diverse group of 201 third‐graders (116 African American, 81 European American, 4 Biracial; 48.8% female), their mothers, and teachers. Results revealed that emotion‐related beliefs (value and danger) had no direct influence on classroom adjustment. However, children whose mothers endorsed the belief that emotions are dangerous demonstrated less emotion understanding and were less well‐adjusted in the classroom. Mothers' belief that emotions are valuable was not independently associated with emotion understanding. Findings point to the important role of emotion understanding in children's development across contexts (family, classroom) and developmental domains (social, emotional, behavioral) during the middle childhood years.     

Do Americans Trust Other Nations? A Panel Study*

Objectives. This study examines Americans' generalized beliefs about how much the United States can trust other nations, as well as changes over time in such beliefs. Methods. We analyze original panel survey data collected in 2001 and 2002. Results. Although only a minority of panel respondents expressed generalized trust in other nations immediately after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, even fewer expressed such trust when reinterviewed almost a year later. Social trust, political trust, and party loyalties predicted individual‐level change in this form of trust from 2001 to 2002. Conclusions. Declining trust in other nations may have important implications for public opinion and, ultimately, public policy regarding world affairs.     

Do the regulatory standards require religious literacy of U.K. health and social care professionals?

Health and social care professionals need sufficient religious literacy in order to handle the complexities of religious beliefs and practices, including the growing numbers who identify with other belief systems and those who claim to identify with no religion. The extent to which the need for religious literacy has been formalized was examined in an analysis of regulatory frameworks for health and social care professionals in the United Kingdom. Although all but one of the regulators make some reference to religion and beliefs, they are silent on the question as to what is meant by religion and beliefs. Some standards include a requirement not to impose one's own beliefs on others, but there is very little requirement to develop a reflective and self‐critical awareness of one's own stance. Likewise, some standards refer to knowledge and skills required, but greater specificity is required for these to be meaningful.     

Room for climate advocates in a coal‐focused economy? NGO influence on Australian climate policy

Many Australian environmental non‐government organisations (NGOs) have campaigned for greater political action and community awareness on human‐induced climate change for almost two decades. Australian emissions are the highest per person in the world, yet the Government's response is heavily influenced by the economically‐significant fossil fuel industry. NGO campaigners are sceptical of their campaigns' effectiveness. This paper presents three methods for evaluating the effectiveness of NGO climate change campaigns: Moyer's Movement Action Plan, Schumaker's Assessment of Political Effectiveness, and a document analysis of the influence of NGO submissions to climate policy processes. Evaluation is critical for NGO campaigns to improve their effectiveness, and evaluation criteria and methods should ideally be designed in parallel with the campaign strategy. Using these evaluation methods, it is evident that Australian NGO campaigns on climate change have been effective.     

Islamisation and activism of a Muslim NGO in Pakistan: Jama'at‐ud‐Da'wa as a case study

This paper locates the study of Jamat‐ud‐Da'wa (JUD) within the context of global political developments. Premised on the nexus between the local and the global developments, it discusses how changes in the domestic or international arena shaped the policies of JUD after 9/11. It argues that, as a successor to the Lashker‐e‐Toiba in Pakistan, the JUD has been active in the social welfare space. It has moved into roles that reside in the domain of the state's responsibility but have passed to the private sector due to the state's failure to meet the needs of its citizens, including the provision of education and relief and rescue efforts after natural disasters. Though not categorically identified as being part of the jihadi agenda, this activism increases the appeal of the JUD among Pakistani citizens, with a possibility of increasing their declared and/or active support for JUD's views on Pakistan's foreign policy.     

Partisan Cleavages in the Importance of Citizenship Rights and Responsibilities*

Objective. Research indicates partisan polarization on a number of social and moral attitudes. However, it is unclear whether a similar polarization can be found regarding citizenship norms, a question we investigate. Methods. Using 2004 GSS data, we examine regression results analyzing citizens' beliefs about a wide range of citizenship duties and rights based on their partisan identity. Results. Democrats and Republicans differ little in regard to many key rights and duties, such as the importance of voting and the right to equal treatment by the government. However, compared to Republicans, Democrats attach more importance to social duties and rights for political participation and for minority groups. Independents are most distinctive, placing much less importance on political duties and social rights of equality and an adequate standard of living, particularly in comparison to Democrats. Conclusion. The majority of Americans share a common set of citizenship norms. Yet, some differences occur along partisan lines, and Independents hold weaker citizenship norms compared to Republicans and Democrats.     

Adolescent Religiosity and School Contexts*

Objectives. Schools serve as the primary social organizations for adolescents, structuring their lives and conveying a variety of skills, norms, and values, but relatively little is known about how schools influence the development of religious belief, attitudes, and behavior during adolescence. We explore how schools' religious norms, coupled with adolescents' pursuit of social status through conformity, affect public and private religiosity. Methods. Employing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we use multilevel modeling to examine the impact of school context on adolescents' public and private religiosity. Results. We find that school norms are influential in shaping both public religious expressions and private devotional activities, but pursuit of social status is a motivation for change across religious contexts only of public religious activity. The effect of social status as a motivator of religious change was moderated by the strength of the adolescent's identification with the school, especially for private religiosity. Conclusions. Schools play a key role in the social development of adolescents, and students' religious beliefs and behaviors are influenced systematically and observably by the type of religious climate within the school.