对“单独二孩”政策新的认识与思考

随着单独二孩政策落地,生育政策再次成为社会热点,各种说法频出,有必要更广泛、深入的讨论。文章在对单独二孩政策实施后一年来相关研究成果进行梳理和总结的基础上,从妇女终身生育水平和生育地区差异的角度,对单独二孩政策进行了新的解读,并从多个侧面展开了政策思考。研究表明:妇女的终身生育水平没有从时期生育水平看到的那么低,中国尚谈不上已陷入超低生育率陷阱,地区差异大仍然是中国人口生育的基本特征,政策调整需要统筹兼顾。在单独二孩政策刚落地一年就做出政策遇冷判断不够审慎,过渡性的单独二孩政策发挥着向全面二孩政策接续的重要错峰作用。政策变化带来的社会影响要远比生育本身更广泛、复杂。     

用孩次递进比模拟“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为--以湖北省为例

以2014年湖北省卫生和计划生育委员会提供的包括“单独”、“双独”方面的数据为基础,描述了生育政策调整下被压抑的生育潜能释放的规律性和用孩次递进比的方法预测“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为,与意愿分析方法相互比照,丰富了当下生育政策下生育行为预测研究。从分析结果可以看出,假定2016年“全面二孩”生育政策调整,湖北省第一年内会新增二孩出生量52621人,占湖北省2014年总出生量的7?41％;三年内最低会新增139262人的二孩生育量。城乡对比发现,农村新增二孩生育占到将近六成,且由抢生而导致的堆积主要集中在农村,40岁后的高龄抢生情况不严重。     

实际生育二孩人群分析——基于上海市的调查

文章基于2017年针对已生育二孩的上海户籍夫妇的问卷调查数据,并与其他相关调查进行比较,对生育政策调整以来实际生育二孩的人群及其生育原因进行分析。结果发现,近几年上海市生育二孩的大多是20世纪70年代末和80年代出生的女性;文化程度和收入水平均较高,有祖辈帮忙照料孩子,女方不在业或工作灵活度较高、强度较低,第一个孩子是女孩的夫妇更有可能生育二孩。拥有相对充足育儿资源的家庭更可能生育第二个孩子,以满足对孩子的情感需求。文章认为,制定合理的公共政策,有针对性地减轻家庭的生育养育成本,是进一步释放生育潜力的有效路径。     

育龄主体二孩生育焦虑影响因素的性别差异分析

本文基于长春师范大学性别文化研究所"‘二孩政策’对女性生育行为的影响调查"数据分析育龄主体二孩生育焦虑的影响因素。采用质性与量化相结合的序列混合方法,首先使用质性分析方法对二孩生育焦虑的影响因素进行探索性分析,再分别从生育的直接成本、间接成本、生育观念和性别偏好几个方面量化分析性别的调节作用。研究结果显示直接成本和一孩性别在整体模型中对二孩生育焦虑有显著的影响。直接成本对二孩生育焦虑的影响程度最大,性别对直接成本和一孩性别没有产生调节作用,二者对男性和女性二孩生育焦虑都具有同等重要的影响。性别作用抵消了间接成本和生育观念对二孩生育焦虑的影响,间接成本对男性二孩生育焦虑的影响高于女性。生育观念对女性二孩生育焦虑有显著影响,但对男性没有显著影响。     

“全面两孩”政策下空巢老年人对子女生育二孩态度及影响因素——以北京市为例

基于2015年底北京市空巢家庭调查数据考察“全面两孩”政策背景下空巢老年人对子女生育二孩的态度,结果表明:空巢老年人的政策知晓率极高,支持、反对和不干涉子女生育二孩的各占约1/3;一旦子女生育二孩,近七成空巢老年人愿意提供物质或劳务支持;养老等功利性目的并非希望子女生育二孩的首要原因,经济负担、健康顾虑和照料匮乏是阻碍子女生育二孩的主要因素.利用二元logistic模型考察影响因素,与子女关系好、身体健康、有配偶等因素会显著提高老年人对子女生育二孩的支持概率,而养老观念开放、受教育程度高和空巢时间长等因素则会显著降低支持概率.空巢老年人的性别、年龄、经济水平、养老选择等因素对因变量没有显著影响.     

基于系统动力学的“单独二孩”政策仿真研究

目前中国的总和生育率约为1.4,而国际上公认的合理的总和生育率应为2.1左右,加上当前老龄化问题突出,国家推出了"单独二孩"政策,政策效果如何亟待研究。本文通过系统动力学模型对"单独二孩"政策进行仿真实验,发现在此政策下新出生的二孩数量并不能实质性地改变中国的人口结构,为解决当前面临的问题,我们又做了全面放开二孩政策的比对试验,结果发现在全面放开的情况下出生人数增长较快,年末总人数有所增长但不会出现爆炸式增长情况。总体来说,在当前形势下,全面放开二孩政策的作用比单独二孩政策大。所以建议将"单独二孩"政策过渡到"全面放开二孩",在此基础上通过配套措施解决育儿成本过高、申请手续复杂等社会问题,同时通过宣传教育等改变经济理性环境下享乐主义等不健康的育儿观念,将我国的总和生育率恢复到应有水平。     

中国普遍二孩生育的政策环境与政策目标

普遍二孩生育政策的实施效果,不仅涉及人口长期均衡发展目标的实现,也决定着生育政策下一步改革的方向和速度。文章围绕“谁来生”（生育主体）、“如何养”（社会经济条件）、“生多少”（生育文化）三个问题,着重分析了中国普遍二孩生育的人口环境、社会经济环境和政治文化环境。结果显示普遍二孩生育政策并不会起到立竿见影提升生育率水平的效果,其对劳动力短缺、人口老龄化等结构性问题的解决也不会是即时的。文章对这一政策的可能效果与实现政策目标的关系进行了理论上的探讨,认为政府工作的重点须顺应政策环境的变化,努力创造生育友好型社会,而不是急于求成再次贸然改变生育政策。     

“二孩”生育政策的经济效应分析--供给与需求的视角

供给面看,实施“二孩”政策会直接扩大人口规模、增加未来劳动力供给,短期引起家庭储蓄水平降低;而长期则会对宏观储蓄水平产生积极作用,且年轻的人口结构有利于我国创新能力的提高。需求面看,全面放开“二孩”会对消费产生拉动作用,但因住房支出的挤压,效果或许有限;投资会加速,但却可能加剧其与消费的比例失衡;人口变动一定程度上会延长我国基于人口红利的出口比较优势。     

An Evolutionary Interpretation of Fertility Decline: New Evidence

This article presents new evidence that partly reinforces and partly qualifies the results of a recent article on fertility decline published in this journal by Sanderson and Dubrow. Eight panel regression analyses were carried out, four for the period between 1960 and 1990 and four more for the period of the original demographic transition, that between 1880 and 1940. The analyses for the 1960–1990 period show that Sanderson and Dubrow's original conclusion that infant mortality decline was causing fertility decline (rather than the reverse) was correct. On the other hand, Sanderson and Dubrow's conclusion that enhanced female empowerment led to fertility decline proved incorrect. The new analyses reported here show that the reverse was in fact the case: women became more empowered as a result of declining fertility. The panel analyses carried out for the 1880–1940 period showed that infant mortality decline seemed to be an important cause of fertility decline between 1880 and 1910 but not between 1910 and 1940. However, the reverse hypothesis—that fertility decline caused infant mortality decline during this period—was falsified. I conclude that the causes of fertility decline in the modern world may be different, at least to some extent, from those in the original demographic transition. This is an unsatisfying (because unparsimonious) result that suggests the need for more research.     

中国生育率下降中的扩散效应:基于省级时序数据的研究

本文使用1950～2000年中国28个省的时序数据,分析了中国省级空间和时间生育率下降的扩散效应。分析结果表明,中国生育率下降中存在着扩散效应。空间扩散分析显示,持续的下降始于少数大城市和一些东部省份,随之是北部省份,而广大的西北和一些南部地区生育率转变较晚;时间扩散分析结果表明,省内生育率下降显示出比省间生育率变化更为明显的扩散效应,并且不同时期生育率下降的影响因素不同。扩散因素独立于社会经济因素,其促进和加强了社会经济和计划生育因素对中国生育率下降的影响。     

中国的生育率下降:世纪末回顾

本文对近半个世纪以来中国生育率的下降进行了简要总结和分析。通过与发展中地区,尤其是亚洲国家的对比,说明了中国生育率下降的特点;通过不同的生育率指标来刻画中国生育率下降过程的独特性;最后简要阐述了中国生育率下降的因素。     

Spatial Analysis of the Causes of Fertility Decline in Prussia

This article contributes to the geographic analysis of fertility decline in the demographic transition in Europe. We reanalyze Galloway, Hammel, and Lee's (1994) Prussian data with spatial analysis methods. Our multivariate analysis provides evidence of the predictive effect of both economic and cultural variables. Furthermore, even after all of the observable economic, social, and cultural variables have been controlled for, our findings show that a significant unexplained geographic clustering of fertility decline remains. We then specify spatial econometric models, which show that in addition to economic and cultural factors, socio‐geographic factors such as being adjacent to areas of sharp fertility decline are also needed to understand the pattern of fertility decline. These results provide new support for the role of social diffusion in the process, while allowing for the direct structural effects of economic change.     

Demand or Ideation? Evidence from the Iranian Marital Fertility Decline

Is the onset of fertility decline caused by structural socioeconomic changes or by the transmission of new ideas? The decline of marital fertility in Iran provides a quasi-experimental setting for addressing this question. Massive economic growth started in 1955; measurable ideational changes took place in 1967. We argue that the decline is described more precisely by demand theory than by ideation theory. It began around 1959, just after the onset of massive economic growth but well before the ideational changes. It paralleled the rapid growth of participation in primary education, and we found no evidence that the 1967 events had any effect on the decline. More than one-quarter of the decline can be attributed to the reduction in child mortality, a key mechanism of demand theory. Several other findings support this main conclusion.     

“全面二孩”政策下新疆生产建设兵团育龄人群生育意愿调查分析

本文采用新疆生产建设兵团计生委2016年调查数据,对兵团5397位育龄人群进行二孩生育意愿因素分析,Logistic模型回归结果表明,兵团育龄人群的个体特征、社会特征、以及“一孩”特征都对二孩生育意愿产生显著的影响,这些影响因素的作用机制最终取决于育龄人群二孩生养的预期成本,包括实际成本预期和机会成本预期两个部分,通过完善兵团妇幼保健医疗体系、制定兵团育龄人群生育二孩的激励政策、采取育龄人群分类管理、分类激励等措施,有助于提高兵团育龄人群的二孩生育意愿.     

生育“二孩”基本成本测算及社会分摊机制研究

实施全面二孩政策有利于优化人口结构和促进人口均衡发展,但从现实情况来看,适龄生育家庭生育意愿仍不高,其中生育成本居高不下是主要影响因素。科学评估二孩生育成本,建立合理的生育成本分摊机制是落实全面二孩政策和把握未来人口变化形势的关键。本文基于微观调查数据,运用分类加总的方法测算广州、重庆、武汉、南昌、潍坊和玉溪生育二孩的基本成本。广州、重庆和武汉生育二孩基本成本均超过70万元,其中广州生育二孩基本成本最高约87万元,南昌和潍坊生育二孩基本成本也达到50万元,在二孩生育成本中教育成本所占比重较高。分析生育二孩基本成本分摊现状发现当前二孩生育成本严重私人化,政府和社会对生育成本分担较少。为减轻家庭生育二孩负担,保持人口长期均衡发展,应构建由政府、社会和家庭多元参与的生育分摊机制,明确各自主体责任和义务,推动和实现二孩生育基本成本分摊社会化。     

The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline

Education and urbanization are shown to have been negatively correlated to marital fertility in both urban and rural China prior to the initiation of the substantial family planning programs. We maintain that early use of contraception by better educated and urban strata is a plausible cause of the observed fertility differentials because other proximate variables are unlikely. Coale's m, a presumed indicator of controlled fertility, suggests early fertility control in urban and better educated strata. The apparent preprogram beginnings of fertility control among educational and urban elites does not, however, minimize the awesome effects on fertility of the powerful Chinese family planning programs, once begun.     

Fertility Decline in Czechoslovakia During the Last Two Centuries

The decline of fertility in Czechoslovakia on the territory of the Czech Socialist Republic began with a rise in the age at marriage; the decline of marital fertility began only after 1860. On the territory of the Slovak Socialist Republic marital fertility began to decline after 1900 without previous significant changes in the age at marriage. The differences between the demographic behaviour in the two parts of Czechoslovakia have persisted, although they are now gradually disappearing. There are other significant regional differences in the fertility decline caused by the overall process of economic and social development. The end of the demographic transition in the Czech Socialist Republic came during the 1930's and in the Slovak Socialist Republic during the 1960's.