中国社会保障公共支出省际比较研究

在借鉴社会保障制度比较研究的经典理论和模型的基础上,本文依据中国31个省份的年度截面数据对影响各省社会保障公共支出水平的因素进行了统计分析和模型检验。研究结果发现,中国各省级政府的社会保障公共支出水平存在着巨大的差异。政府力量是造成各省社会保障公共支出水平差异的首要因素,其次是单位体制因素,再次是经济发展水平因素。     

当前我国社会法若干问题的思考

在刚刚启动的以经济建设为中心转向以经济社会发展为中心的转型与国际金融危机碰撞后,危机前的民生问题在危机后更加严重,转型更加紧迫,更需要以劳动法和社会保障法为中心的社会法作为阻隔经济危机引发社会危机的防火墙发挥作用。为此,需要对社会法的若干问题重新思考,例如,对用工成本应当作广义理解,并对以不正当转嫁为特点用工成本负担结构做出调整;劳动关系协调机制建设不宜单项突进,而应当整体进化;土地承包经营权流转应当与农民的非农就业和社会保障同步联动。     

Indonesian social security in transition: An empirical analysis

Indonesia is one of the world's largest countries, with a population of some 190 million people. Although considered poor in terms of virtually every economic indicator at the start of the first national development plan some 25 years ago, the nation has consistently improved in performance year by year. This paper argues that the development of social security has been inextricably linked to the remarkable economic growth. The commencement of the second national development plan period (1994-2019) offers a timely opportunity to review Indonesian social security progress to date, to consider the challenges ahead, and to speculate on how social security can best contribute towards national objectives such as the development of human resources and the alleviation and eradication of poverty.     

The Consequences of Adolescent Parenthood on Men's Depression,Parental Satisfaction,and Fertility in Adulthood

Adolescent fathers who drop out of school to enter the labor force jeopardize their educations, subsequent occupations, and their life-time earning potentials, as well as enter adult roles for which they may not be emotionally prepared. This life event during their adolescence puts them at high risk for economic problems and stress related to accelerated role development: Using a sample from a national study, it was hypothesized that men who fathered during adolescence (n = 227) would report greater fertility, more depression, and lower levels of parental satisfaction than men who first fathered during their 20s (n = 1032). Ordinary least squares regression was used to test the hypotheses. Men who fathered during adolescence were found to have significantly greater rates of fertility and depression, but higher levels of parental satisfaction, as compared to men who fathered as adults, when also controlling for SES, race, fertility, and age.     

An Agenda for Social Security in the Years Ahead

This paper focuses on recent debates on social welfare spending in Australia, and on social security in particular. Its starting point is the current economic climate and the perceived imperative for continued fiscal restraint. Its central argument is that the welfare debate must be placed firmly in the context of the role of the public sector as a whole. In the social welfare context, government interventions through direct expenditures and tax expenditures must be assessed together, along with the impact of the tax structure on revenue raising potential. The paper questions the virtue of increased reliance on selectivity and presents the case for a more universalist approach.     

人口老龄化对中国经济的长期影响

生育率迅速下降和预期寿命的延长使中国人口正在经历快速的老龄化。本文试图对中国人口老龄化的长期经济影响做出分析,依次讨论人口老龄化对劳动力供需关系和就业率、国内消费需求、社会保障体制和公共财政、人口城乡迁移和城市化、中国经济在国际市场的比较优势和产业结构变迁的可能影响。在此基础上,作者提出逐步放宽生育控制政策、把人口政策的重点放到提高人口素质上、推迟法定退休年龄和深化对城乡社会保障体制的改革,提高社会保障的公平性和效率等政策建议。     

北京市社会保障水平国际比较及启示

社会保障水平是衡量社会发展水平的重要指标之一。合理的社会保障水平不仅是社会文明进步的标志,同时也促进社会经济的良性发展。本文针对北京市经济发展水平和社会保障水平现状,通过国际比较提出了在保障水平和保障范围等方面与发达国家70年代还有一定差距。在此基础上,对如何完善北京市的社会保障制度的建设提出了政策建议。     

Changing the development policy paradigm: Investing in Social security floor for all

The Paper briefly reviews social security coverage that the world has achieved and summarizes economic and social benefits of a national social security system. It then goes on to argue that social security systems are a necessary part of the institutional framework of any effective market economy, creating—among other things—societal cohesion that is needed for long-term economic development. It makes the case that the introduction of basic social protection in developing countries is both a desirable and an affordable investment in their social and economic development. It estimates the global minimum investment cost to provide basic social security and finally suggests international instruments to introduce a global social security floor.     

基本养老保险覆盖面扩展决定因素实证研究

扩大基本养老保险覆盖面是我国社会保障制度改革的优先目标之一。本文通过对19982003年分省数据的实证分析,发现各省之间的基本养老保险覆盖面的差异,主要是由它们的经济发展水平和市场化程度这两个宏观经济因素与基本养老金给付标准和财政对社会保障补助支出这两个政策因素共同决定的。基于这些发现,考虑到我国经济持续发展和市场化改革深化的趋势,我们对我国社会保障事业的发展持谨慎乐观的态度,并认为在目前,“低水平、高覆盖”仍然是一个符合国情、必须坚持的合理政策选择,地方政府应当在财力许可的范围内,增加对社会保障事业的财政投入。     

“Crowding in” or “crowding out”? An examination of the impact of the welfare state on generalized social trust

Generalized social trust is correlated with increased levels of civic engagement, lower crime rates, and greater economic growth. Many scholars believe that equality provides the conditions in which social trust can flourish. Thus, welfare programs might be one way to generate social trust. However, the relationship between social spending and trust is contested: Some argue it is negative, while others argue it is positive. This study examined the effects of total social welfare expenditures on social trust in 18 OECD countries, holding constant individual characteristics, country characteristics, and country and year effects. Fixed effects analyses indicate that every additional percent of gross domestic product spent on social expenditures 5 years prior is associated with a 4.7 percent increased likelihood that respondents of that country will endorse trusting other people. Further testing for reverse causality found no significant association between trust and later social expenditures, supporting the claim that expenditures drive trust instead of the reverse.     

Crowding Out or Welfare Promotion? How Foreign Aid Affects Social Expenditures in Latin American Welfare Systems

Foreign assistance constitutes a significant share of government revenue in many low‐ and middle‐income economies and is targeted at poverty reduction and the promotion of social and economic well‐being. This study therefore examines fiscal responses by Latin American welfare states to the inflow of such aid. As a form of external non‐tax revenue, aid can function as a substitution for public welfare expenditure, with a crowding out effect being the likely outcome. This article investigates whether overall aid and aid that is particularly targeted at the social sector substitutes public welfare provision and, if so, whether it also substitutes its function. A time‐series cross‐section analysis of 19 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2008 provides limited support for the assumption that foreign aid payments influence the welfare budget. It is only the health care sector in middle‐income countries which experiences a small decrease in expenditures. Social security and education expenditures are not affected.     

宏观税负、公共支出结构与个人主观幸福感 ——兼论“政府转型”

本文利用CGSS2006数据库,对政府转型下的宏观税负、民生财政支出和地区收入差距等与个人主观幸福感的关系进行实证检验后发现：（1）宏观税负对居民主观幸福感有显著负影响;（2）总体而言,政府公共支出增进了居民的主观幸福感;（3）从公共支出结构看,地方政府基建投资对于城镇居民的主观幸福感有显著负效应,政府用于科教文卫和社会保障的支出对居民的主观幸福感有显著正效应;（4）科教文卫支出与社会保障支出对市民与外来人员幸福感的影响存在显著差异。     

Demographic and Welfare State Predictors of Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures: A Path Analytic Model

ABSTRACT

Out-of-pocket (OOP) payments are principal components of financing healthcare and have a significant effect on poverty in numerous developing countries. The present study seeks to ascertain the relation among demographic, welfare state, and OOP health expenditure indicators using a path analysis. National representative household budget data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for 2015 were used. To test the goodness of fit of the model, multiple fit indices were utilized. The model fit for redefined path analytic model data was good (X²/df = 70.20/9 = 7.8; RMSEA = 0.032; GFI = 1.00; AGFI = 0.99; CFI = 0.99). The results of the analysis revealed that demographic and welfare indicators are causally related to OOP health expenditures, and income was a mediating factor for this interrelationship. Designing of socially inclusive policies on the basis of the values of equity is essential to combat poverty due to OOP health expenditures in developing countries.     

和谐社会视角下的农村社会保障制度建设构想

农村社会保障制度作为国家社会保障的重要组成部分,直接影响到农村社会稳定与经济发展,并影响到和谐社会的建设。有效建立起农村社会保障制度既是农民增收的需要,又是落实科学发展观的客观要求。应逐步实现城乡社会保障一体化,建立起农村最低生活保障制度,建立起由农民个人、集体、国家共同负担、共尽责任的多主体、多元化的农村社会保障基金筹集机制,完善农村社会保障管理体制,强化对农村社会保障工作的监督机制,确立农村社会保障制度的法律地位。     

社会保障立法与社会保障制度建设

我国在计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转换过程中建立的社会保障制度,目前尚存在内容不健全、法制化程度低、实施机制脆弱的不足.比较国外较为成熟的传统型、福利型、储蓄型三种社会保障制度模式,我们可以从中吸取经验,受到启发,进而建立具有中国特色的、保障面宽、保障程度适中的社会保障制度.为此目的,我们必须加强社会保障立法,既要健全社会保障法律体系,又要严格社会保障执行的法律监督.     

Low Public Expenditures on Social Welfare: Do East Asian Countries have a Secret?

This paper explores the sources of low public expenditures on social welfare in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Six factors are analysed based on aggregate data: the public/private mix of welfare programmes, the age structure, the maturity of old-age pension schemes, the population coverage of social security, the relative generosity of social security and the role of enterprises and families as alternative providers of welfare. The evidence allows putting some conventional statements about the virtues of East Asian welfare states into questions. Public expenditures on welfare are bound to rise a lot in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, while the level of protection in Hong Kong and Singapore is well below the standards of Western countries.     

构建贫困弱势群体医疗救助体系的探析

改革开放以来,我国经济社会取得了长足发展。与此同时,各个群体产生利益分化和群体分化,形成了贫困弱势群体。由于缺乏必要的医疗保障。贫困弱势群体看病贵、看病难问题已经成为经济社会可持续发展的障碍,进而成为构建和谐社会的障碍。本文将对其医疗保障的现状进行描述,分析缺乏医疗保障的成因,提出针对贫困弱势群体的医疗保障问题,需要建立一个多层次的医疗救助体系。     

少子化影响经济社会发展的主要途径

少子化、老龄化、人口减少成为了现代世界发展的一个主要的趋势,这种现象的产生将会对经济社会的发展起到深远的影响。本文通过与少子化伴生的老龄化和人口减少以分析其对经济社会产生影响的途径。为了分类方便,使用马克思政治经济学的生产力与生产关系的理论分析框架对少子化影响经济社会发展的主要途径进行阐述。得出以下结论：少子化主要通过劳动供给的变动、投资的转移两个途径对经济社会的发展产生制约作用。     

Government for the people: the substantive elements of democracy

The most widely used understandings of the concept of democracy – normative, procedural and institutional – focus on its methods and approaches. This article argues that democracy needs also to be understood in terms of its substantive implications. Democratic rights include not only the civil and political rights associated with liberal democracy, but also the economic and social rights promoted in industrially developed countries. Liberal principles promote democracy and economic development. Social rights have developed, not just through state action, but through the independent establishment of solidarities facilitated by the exercise of democratic rights. Every established democracy has a system of social welfare provision. This is not coincidental. Democracy, economic development and social protection are intimately linked.     

Introduction: Social security and the digital economy – Managing transformation

This special issue of the International Social Security Review considers the multidisciplinary topic of social security and the digital economy. The selected articles that comprise this issue offer a number of varying perspectives on the changing and increasingly complex environment in which social security institutions operate and critically assess not only how social security institutions are likely to be impacted but also how they may respond to the challenges foreseen. Social security institutions do not have control over external factors that can negatively impact the financing and coverage of social security programmes. Nonetheless, with the shift to the digital economy, the task at hand is to manage an unprecedented process of change. Though ensuring service continuity is the primary concern, also required are improvements in service delivery for all stakeholders and the development of responses to meet new operational challenges and emerging coverage risks. Particularly in more developed economies, the socio‐economic challenges that accompany the labour market changes associated with the transition to the digital economy are often characterized as presenting a risk of growing precarity. Regardless, the global policy goal remains one of ensuring sustainable and adequate social security protection for all.