Agriculture,trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case

The persistent appreciation of the U.S. dollar from 1980 through 1984 raise the issue of macroeconomic impacts on trade sectors as a critical policy concern. In this article a six-variable vector autoregressive model is utilized to evaluate the dynamic effects of macroeconomic shocks on U.S. agriculture, a key trade sector. The results suggest that the impacts are substantial. Expansion of the money supply or a decline in the real interest rate or the real value of the dollar has a positive effect on agricultural exports and relative prices, whereas autonomous inflationary shocks have negative effects.     

Forecasting the cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040

One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that prevalence rates of chronic diseases declined during the twentieth century and that this rate of decline has accelerated. However, health care costs may continue to increase even as the age of onset of chronic diseases is delayed, because the proportion of a cohort living to late ages will increase. The accelerating decline in the prevalence of chronic diseases during the course of the twentieth century supports the proposition that increases in life expectancy during the twenty-first century will be fairly large, but the effect on health care in the U.S. will be modest. The income elasticity for health services is calculated at 1.6, meaning that income expenditures on health care in the U.S. are likely to rise from a current level of about 15 percent to about 29 percent of GDP in 2040.     

Free trade,food-processing,and migration: An analysis of Mexican immigration in the U.S. Great Plains Region

This paper empirically identifies the factors driving Mexican immigration into the U.S. Great Plains region, focusing especially on the role of work in the Mexican and U.S. food-processing sectors, which in the context of NAFTA-induced foreign direct investments, opens up paths for migration along occupational lines into the U.S. from Mexico. Using a unique dataset on Mexican migration, the study addresses three related questions in a series of multivariate logistic regression analyses. First, is employment in the U.S. food-processing sector associated with Mexican migration into the Great Plains region? Second, does employment in the Mexican food-processing sector predict employment in the Great Plains food-processing sector? Finally, is the political–economic context linking Mexico and the U.S. related to the formation of occupational channels linking the food-processing sectors in Mexico and the U.S.? The findings demonstrate that the U.S. food-processing sector is a strong predictor of Mexican migration to the Great Plains region; Mexican migration is strongly channeled along occupational lines from Mexico to the U.S.; and the implementation of NAFTA, a period of intensive political–economic integration, strengthens the occupational channel between the food-processing sectors.     

Cross‐Border Earnings of U.S. Natives Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. This study explores whether the earnings of U.S.‐born cross‐border workers differ from those of their U.S.‐employed counterparts. We also analyze whether the cross‐border/non‐cross‐border wage differential changed during the 1990s—a decade when U.S.‐Mexico trade intensified and the maquiladora industry expanded. Methods. Employing decennial U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000, this article estimates earnings functions and uses wage decomposition analysis to study changes in the earnings of U.S.‐born Hispanic and non‐Hispanic cross‐border workers. Results. The number of U.S.‐native cross‐border workers, while relatively small, increased significantly between 1990 and 2000, as did their earnings. A closer examination reveals that this cross‐border earnings premium only developed among non‐Hispanics. Conclusions. These findings indicate that some U.S. natives find lucrative employment opportunities on the Mexican side of the border, which might be diminished by additional restrictions for U.S.‐born residents to easily cross back and forth into Mexico.     

Trade frictions and productivity performance—Technological, Price, and cost competitiveness of Japan and U.S. exports

Over the last two decades Japanese industry has increased its share of world exports, and hence their competitiveness, while U.S. industry has declined in shares and competitive position. Focusing on cost competitiveness of Japanese and U.S. manufacturing exports, a model was developed to explain relative export performace of the two countries by relative technological progress and the resulting cost advantage. It is shown that technological progress and cost factors are important in determining relative exports of the two countries. It is also indicated, however, that problems for U.S. export industries in particular are not only their slower productivity growth, relative to Japanese industries, but also the lack of association of their productivity growth and cost factors with their export growth.     

The effects of demographics, residence and socioeconomic status on the distribution of 19th century Mexican biological living conditions

The use of height data to measure living standards is now a well-established method in economics and the social sciences. However, there are still some populations, places, and times for which anthropometric evidence remains thin. One example is 19th century Mexicans born in Mexico and in the American West. This paper demonstrates that the statures of 19th century Mexicans born in Mexico remained approximately constant, while the statures of Mexicans born in the U.S. increased by nearly 4 cm, indicating that although the two groups shared a common genetic background, their cumulative biological living conditions differed markedly. The BMIs of Mexicans born in Mexico remained constant, and the BMIs of Mexicans born in the U.S. were high initially but rapidly converged in the late 19th century.     

Cross-border school enrolment: Associated factors in the U.S.–Mexico borderlands

This paper examines students who live in Mexico but attend school in the U.S., and looks into the factors associated with their decision to study abroad. Based on Mexico’s 2015 Intercensal Survey, cross-border students are described in terms of their number, location, educational level and socioeconomic characteristics. Subsequently, the study estimates probit models to analyze the factors associated with studying in the United States. Cross-border students are mainly U.S.-born and concentrated in Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. The probability of being a cross-border student is positively associated with age, household income and having a household member who was born in the U.S. or is a cross-border worker. Cross-border students come from high-income households with strong ties to the United States. The decision to study in the U.S. is likely taken due to the higher quality of the country’s education system and to facilitate an eventual transition into the U.S. labor market.     

Automobile prices and protection: The U.S.-Japan trade restraint

We examine the effects of the U.S.-Japan trade restraint on automobile prices and quality upgrading, for both Japanese imports and American small cars. From April 1981 to April 1984 the suggested retail price of all Japanese models increased by 15.8 percent, or 5.3 percent per year. We find that nearly the entire amount of this rise can be explained by the upgrading of individual models. This upgrading may benefit consumers who would purchase a luxury import in any case, but harms those who desire the basic imports. In addition to upgrading, we conclude that a second cost of the trade restraint has been to prevent the yen depreciation from being passed onto American consumers, in terms of lower imported auto prices. For U.S. small cars we find a 9.1 percent rise in the suggested retail price, or 3 percent per year, with a fraction of this amount due to model upgrading. If the yen depreciation had led to lower import prices without the trade restraint, then we expect that U.S. auto prices would have been lower, too.     

美国霸权:衰落还是延续

自20世纪50年代以来,历史上共出现了大约五次美国霸权衰落论。几乎每次衰落论都遭到霸权延续论的反击。"9.11"事件、"他者的崛起"、金融危机引发了新一轮的美国霸权衰落论与延续论之间的争论。然而,美国霸权的真实现状是美国的硬实力依然坚挺,遭受重创的只是美国的软实力。凭借美元霸权的融资能力、国民的忧患意识和政策的改弦易辙,美国照样能够渡过难关,并在相当长时期内延续其霸权。     

Mexican Immigrant Self‐Employment Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border: An Analysis of 2000 Census Data*

Objective. This study explores the entrepreneurial tendencies of Mexican immigrants in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on the U.S. side of the Mexican border vis‐à‐vis the U.S. interior. Methods. Using 2000 Census data available in the 5% Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, we empirically analyze the self‐employment rates and earnings of Mexican immigrants residing in U.S. cities near Mexico versus those in nonborder MSAs. Results. Our findings indicate that Mexican immigrants in MSAs along the U.S.‐Mexico border have significantly higher self‐employment rates (but lower earnings) than their counterparts in the rest of the United States and non‐Hispanic whites in border cities. Explanations for these findings include the existence of trade opportunities in U.S. border cities as well as intense labor market competition that crowds a greater share of immigrants into self‐employment. Conclusion. Immigration reform that curtails the immigration flow from Mexico might hinder small business formation and economic development on the U.S. side of the Mexican border.     

Effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy: Empirical estimates of crowding out

This study examines the short-and intermediate-run effects of a permanent reduction in U.S. personal income taxes on interest rates, output, prices, exchange rates, and the current account, holding government spending and money growth fixed. The theoretical analysis suggests that interest rates and domestic consumption will rise but that net exports and interest-sensitive expenditures will fall. Also, the foreign currency value of the dollar will rise except possibly when output increases due to positive supply-side effects or to elimination of unemployment. These theoretical conclusions are essentially confirmed by simulations using the Federal Reserve Board's MPS quarterly econometric model and its multicountry model.     

Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies

We analyze the spillovers of Western economic sanctions against Russia into twenty-seven transition economies of the former Soviet Union, and Central and Eastern Europe. These spillovers are measured in terms of their impact on bilateral trade and direct investments for the period of 2014–2018. We construct a new dataset to quantify each episode of Western/US sanctions against Russia. The gravity models of bilateral trade and direct investment are used and the data analysis is conducted using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood econometric technique. We estimate that the Western and U.S. sanctions against Russia spilled over into third-party small countries. These sanctions resulted in the significant decline of exports from transition economies, Russian imports to transition economies, and Russian direct investments to transition economies. Interestingly, the direct investments to Russia from transition economies sharply increased during the same period. The quantitative estimates of the spillovers suggest the following cumulative changes. Due to an imposed sanction type (e.g., against an individual, entity or sector) each episode of Western/U.S. sanction resulted in the decline of aforementioned indicators in the range of 10.9–30.5-million-dollar/5.6–16.9-million-dollar of exports from transition economies, 6.3–17.7-million-dollar/3.3–9.8-million-dollar of Russian imports to transition economies, and 3.4–9.4-million-dollar/1.7–5.2-million-dollar of Russian direct investments to transition economies. The direct investments to Russia from transition economies increased by 10.9–30.6-million-dollar/5.7–17-million-dollar, respectively.     

Are Subsidies to be Blamed? A Reexamination of U.S. Countervailing Duty on Hog Imports From Canada

A dramatic increase in U.S. hog imports from Canada triggered a successful countervail action against Canada in 1985, and resulted in an import tariff. This paper finds Canadian subsidies were not a major factor explaining increased hog exports, rather, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar played a larger role. More importantly, we find that hog imports from Canada did not “injure” the U.S. industry. These results imply the U.S. hog countervail duty was the outcome of rent-seeking activities rather than due to economic factors.     

The benefits to Caribbean Basin countries from the U.S. CBI tariff eliminations

The Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act eliminates U.S. tariffs on many exports of countries in the Caribbean Sea and Central America. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these tariff eliminations on the export earnings and economic welfare of the beneficiary countries. It is found that the tariff eliminations increase annual export earnings of beneficiaries by at most $81 million and provide annual welfare gains to these countries of $15 million to $24 million. The benefits are concentrated in agricultural products (particularly sugar, beef, and tobacco) and in products assembled from U.S. components for export to the United States (particularly electronic equipment). The countries that benefit most are the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Guatemala.     

美国战略思维与霸权战略选择

作为最基本的战略要素之一,战略思维反映着一个国家带有根本性的安全与利益需求,构成了国家安全观念演变的内在逻辑线索,并以潜在的、复杂的方式决定着国家安全战略的选择行为。冷战结束后,特别是“9·11”事件以来,美国在力量不断膨胀以及外部威胁突然刺激的情况下,逐渐选取了单极世界霸权的大战略。事实上,美国单极霸权的战略选择深深植根于美国战略思维的特性。通过对美国战略思维缺陷的分析,我们看到,美国单极霸权的战略选择不仅不会更好地护持美国的霸权,反而将会加速美国霸权的衰落。     

Negotiating survival: undocumented Mexican immigrant women in the Pacific Northwest

Current analyses of Mexico–U.S. migration theory generally are based on socioeconomic contexts and decision-making processes of male respondents. Further, limited data available on undocumented Mexican immigrant women mainly address the Mexico–U.S. border area, and adjacent U.S. urban centers. Our qualitative study focuses on undocumented Mexican immigrant women residing in central Washington State, where the regional economy is dominated by agribusiness development and dependent on immigrant and migrant farm labor. This paper assesses propositions of neoclassical economic and social capital theories of international migration in explaining the women’s migration decision-making processes. Project data indicate that while the Pacific Northwest has been a primary migration destination for sometime, it now may be increasingly a second-stage U.S. migration site, following initial migration to more traditional destinations such as California.     

Specifics in a Positive Approach to Peace

An approach to peace is called "positive" here if, in addition to appearing as a realistic means toward peace, it is inherently attractive and morally unobjectionable. Positive approaches include drastic reduction of nuclear weapons (bilateral if possible, but unilateral if necessary), total elimination of first-strike nuclear weapons, a wholehearted no-first-use policy in actions as well as in words, humanization of our own diabolical image of the U.S.S.R., cultivation of realistic empathy and global consciousness, drastic reduction of fear appeals by the peace movement, and cultivation of realistic hope. However, some "negative" actions are also well worth considering as paths to peace: retention of approximately 5% of our present nuclear strength, retention of "adequate" conventional strength, realistic criticism of the U.S.S.R., occasional use of fear appeals, and guarding against unrealistic hope. As a model of positive reasoning and a source of useful references, an imaginary dialogue is presented in which a peace activist answers, in a factual and two-sided way, a number of highly skeptical hawkish questions. Learning to answer such questions effectively may add to both immediate effectiveness and long-term hope within the peace movement.     

Voting for president in the U.S.-Mexico border region

Reasoning that life in the U.S.-Mexico border region is sufficiently different from life in non-border regions this paper asks whether proximity to the border has a significant impact on presidential voting. County level data from four border states, California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, over five presidential elections, 1992-2008, are examined using a both cross-sectional and panel data analysis. The authors conclude that there is a border effect that favors Democratic candidates and that fades as distance from the border increases.