An Equilibrium Model of Health Insurance Provision and Wage Determination

We investigate the effect of employer‐provided health insurance on job mobility rates and economic welfare using a search, matching, and bargaining framework. In our model, health insurance coverage decisions are made in a cooperative manner that recognizes the productivity effects of health insurance as well as its nonpecuniary value to the employee. The resulting equilibrium is one in which not all employment matches are covered by health insurance, wages at jobs providing health insurance are larger (in a stochastic sense) than those at jobs without health insurance, and workers at jobs with health insurance are less likely to leave those jobs, even after conditioning on the wage rate. We estimate the model using the 1996 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and find that the employer‐provided health insurance system does not lead to any serious inefficiencies in mobility decisions.     

An Insurance Model for Risk Management of Process Facilities

Most existing risk management models for process industries do not consider the effect of insurance coverage, which results in an overestimation of overall risk. A model is presented in this article to study the effect of insurance coverage of health, safety, environmental, and business risks. The effect of insurance recovery is modeled through the application of adjustment factors by considering the stochastic factors affecting insurance recovery. The insurance contract's conditions, deductibles, and policy limits are considered in developing the insurance recovery adjustment factors. Copula functions and Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop the distribution of the aggregate loss by considering the dependence among loss classes. A case study is used to demonstrate both the practical application of the proposed insurance model to improve management decisions, and the mitigating effect of insurance to minimize the residual risk.     

考虑保险机构参与的重大工程风险管理激励模型

重大工程建设过程往往面临着巨大的风险暴露，保险是重要的风险处置手段，承接保险合同的保险机构和业主一起成为风险损失的承担主体。考虑到保险机构拥有极强参与现场风险管理的动能，本文基于委托代理理论构建了保险机构介入下业主与承包商的激励模型，分别讨论了共同代理和独家代理两种模式下各方的策略与收益。研究结果表明：共同代理模式下，保险机构实现了主动风险管理，业主和保险机构的收益均得以提高，业主愿意提供比独家代理模式更高的激励系数；承包商在共同代理模式下将采取更为积极的风险管理努力，同时其机会主义行为得到了抑制；业主的最优激励系数受项目特征、承包商自身因素以及外界环境的不确定性共同作用。     

保险需求悖论的解释——来自中国汽车险市场的实证研究

经典的保险需求模型认为绝对风险规避系数递减时保险是一个劣质品,也就是说保险需求会随着财富水平的上升而下降,但这一结论与许多现实的保险行为不符。本文从损失和财富的关系角度出发对经典模型进行了扩展,讨论了在损失随财富变化时的保险需求变化,对保险需求的悖论进行了解释。论文还采用国内汽车险市场的微观数据对拓展模型进行了实证研究,结果显示车险投保人的个人财富与其所选择的保险金额、投保比率以及索赔金额之间存在着显著的正相关关系,检验表明模型的假设和结论具有很好的解释现实的能力。     

重尾索赔条件下现代风险模型的破产概率估计:多险种混合情形

破产概率是非寿险保险风险理论的核心问题。与经典的Cramér-Lundberg模型相比, 由Li Zehui等建立的现代风险模型更为准确地描述了非寿险保险运营的主要特征, 对现实保险业务具有较好的解释力。本文基于现代风险模型, 考虑保险公司多个险种混合经营这一更为现实的情形, 在索赔额服从正则尾分布条件下获得了破产概率的渐近等价估计。我们发现, 在具有大额索赔特征的多个险种混合的条件下, 公司面临的极端索赔风险将由索赔额分布尾部最厚的那些险种决定, 而索赔额分布尾部相对较薄的那些险种的影响作用将被淹没。该结论的有效性可用MATLAB数值模拟得到理想的验证。本文结果是对风险模型研究的重要推广, 也为多险种混合情形下保险公司的风险控制与初始保证金界定提供了依据。     

赔付率约束下的中国保险公司效率与全要素生产率研究

运用SBM(slack-based measure)方向性距离函数分别计算了赔付率约束下的2006-2016年中国境内的财产保险公司、人身保险公司的经营无效率值,并对无效率值的来源进行分解。在此基础上运用Luenberger生产率指数计算出全要素生产率及其分解项,对中资、外资保险公司的经营效率、全要素生产率及其分解项进行了对比分析。结果表明:财险业的中资大型公司经营效率最高,人身险业的中资公司经营效率明显高于外资公司;投资收益无效率是造成中小型人身险公司和中小型财产险公司无效率的最主要原因;财险业大型公司的全要素生产率低于中小型公司,而人身险业外资公司的全要素生产率明显高于中资公司。     

补充医疗保险的障碍期权定价方法及其应用

本文将期权理论引入并应用到医疗保险领域,克服传统损失分布法的局限性,为医疗保险精算提供新颖的分析工具和全新的研究视角。运用供给与需求的一般经济均衡分析将期权定价和精算定价统一于医疗保险精算领域,从精算技术与期权定价整合的视角提出医疗保险精算的供需均衡原理,并利用帕累托最优保险定价公式推导出经典Black-Scholes期权定价模型,缓解期权定价模型在医疗保险领域的应用障碍;利用障碍期权定价思想,标准期权定价模型、棘轮期权定价模型的推导思路,设计和构建含有免赔额、赔偿限额和共付比例的补充医疗保险障碍期权定价模型;最后将理论研究成果应用于我国医疗改革和医疗保险实践,测算补充医疗保险纯保费,丰富我国补充医疗保险定价方法的研究。     

逆向选择条件下带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型及其Pareto改进性研究

为了更有效的规避影响保险市场交易效率的逆向选择问题，本文分投保人风险类型为两种和多种情形建立了带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型，首次提出可以用奖励金和惩罚金有效甄别投保人的风险类型。该模型根据投保人第一个保险期内的索赔情况在第二个保险期对其进行奖励或惩罚，高风险类型的投保人如果选择为低风险类型投保人设计的保险契约，则其在第二阶段受到惩罚的概率要远远大于得到奖励的概率，即风险越高的投保人越害怕惩罚金，因此所建模型满足斯彭斯-莫里斯分离条件。带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型中保险公司的期望利润仍然为0，并不会给投保人带来额外的经济负担，却能够实现对传统部分保险契约简单重复两次的严格帕累托改进。最后采用一个算例说明了该模型的有效性。     

Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France

For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme‐storm‐related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached.     

Equitable Taxation and the Provision of Health Insurance Subsidies

Current U.S. income tax laws allow many taxpayers to exclude from taxable income part or all of the cost of acquiring health insurance through an employer‐sponsored benefit plan. This favorable tax treatment generally applies regardless of whether the employer or employee actually pays the health insurance premiums. We describe the effects of this tax policy on the U.S. tax system's horizontal and vertical equity. We also explain how taxpayers covered by employer‐sponsored plans are significantly subsidized by the government in acquiring health insurance, whereas taxpayers who acquire health insurance by other means or who are not covered by health insurance at all receive no such government assistance. We conclude that any prospective health‐care policy initiatives, including modifications to the 2010 health‐care reforms, should contemplate both the horizontal and vertical equity of the tax treatment of health insurance premiums.     

PERFORMANCE OF THE EXPECTED UTILITY METHOD AND TWO OTHER NORMATIVE METHODS IN INSURANCE DECISION MAKING*

In an experiment, thirty-six professional insurance men employed the utility method, the worry method, and the comparison method in two insurance problems to determine the appropriate insurance coverage. It was found that the best act with the utility method almost always was no insurance, whereas the best act with the other two methods tended to be complete insurance. The utility method best act rarely agreed with the subject's actual preferred act, while the comparison method best act usually was the same or almost the same as the actual preferred act. While the worry method suggests that the subjects typically are risk averse, the utility functions obtained tend to show that the subjects typically are not risk averse.     

对偶理论体系下的自我保险、自我保障与市场保险

传统的预期效用理论认为市场保险与自我保险是可以相互替代的,而市场保险与自我保障却是相互补偿的。本文首先介绍了耶理的对偶理论,进而应用该理论研究了市场保险、自我保险与自我保障三者的相互作用。     

Insurance Against Climate Change and Flooding in the Netherlands: Present, Future, and Comparison with Other Countries

Climate change is projected to cause severe economic losses, which has the potential to affect the insurance sector and public compensation schemes considerably. This article discusses the role insurance can play in adapting to climate change impacts. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, in view of the Netherlands being extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. The usefulness of private insurance as an adaptation instrument to increased flood risks is examined, which is currently unavailable in the Netherlands. It is questioned whether the currently dominant role of the Dutch government in providing damage relief is justified from an economic efficiency perspective. Characteristics of flood insurance arrangements in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France are compared in order to identify possible future directions for arrangements in the Netherlands. It is argued that social welfare improves when insurance companies take responsibility for part of the risks associated with climate change.     

保险业在金融系统性风险传染路径中起到“媒介”作用吗？——基于金融市场尾部风险传染路径的实证分析

2008年金融危机之后,保险业固有的不会产生系统性风险的传统认知被打破。关于保险业在金融系统性风险传染路径中的角色定位,本文从其业务特点和风险传染特点出发,首次提出"媒介"作用的猜想并进行实证研究。本文沿用当前主流研究方法,利用尾部风险的传染网络来研究其媒介作用的大小。本文选取了包括6家上市保险机构在内的34家金融机构,研究区间跨度为2011到2018年。根据金融市场数据"厚尾"和"非对称性"特征,文章首先采用AR-（GJR）GARCH-Skew-t模型对股票收益序列进行处理,然后根据Copula函数,计算尾部相依度,再通过最小生成树和阈值方法构建金融市场的风险传染网络。本文还通过构建保险业媒介中心度来探究其媒介作用的程度。实证结果表明：（1）在金融市场风险传染网络中,保险业起到连接银行市场和证券市场的重要媒介作用;（2）保险机构中又以多元化经营的中国平安的风险传染作用最强,其次是中国人寿。（3）银行市场中的兴业银行和保险市场的联系最紧密,证券信托市场则是中信证券、广发证券等。研究明确了风险传染的路径和关键性节点,为制定更具针对性的系统性风险监管措施提供了参考。     

Overeducated Workers as an Insurance Device

Empirical findings show that firms frequently employ overeducated workers. Since overeducated workers earn more than adequately educated ones working in similar jobs these findings seem to be puzzling. In this paper, we introduce an insurance approach to explain the employment of overeducated workers. Referring to this approach, overeducated workers are employed by a firm to avoid high losses in the case of a crisis (e.g. when the production process breaks down). Contrary to adequately educated workers, overeducated ones may be helpful in this situation by quickly offering improvisatorial solutions. First, we use a simple model to demonstrate the insurance argument. Second, we test the major implication of the model empirically by using industry panel data: if and only if high‐skilled workers are employed for insurance purposes, the average wage of high‐skilled workers in firms that need insurance will be lower compared with firms that do not need insurance. The data confirm this theoretical result.     

基于保险交易的静态最优区块链模型研究

保险业的经营特征与区块链技术存在天然契合性,本文通过分析基于区块链技术的保险交易流程,构建了基于保险交易的静态最优区块链模型,得到了保单区块存储员的最优区块存储能力、区块存储成本以及限制区块链违约分叉的约束条件。进一步以我国车险市场的经营数据为例进行数值模拟,得到区块规模、平均记录时间、平均交易费用等指标的最优结果。通过比较静态分析发现,保险交易数量、保单区块存储员人数、区块存储时间等增加以及风险损失率的降低均会导致区块规模增加以及保险交易记录时间和保险交易费用的减少,而外部冲击的增加会导致区块规模的增加以及保险交易记录时间减少,但对保险交易费用的影响取决于因外部冲击增加而产生的交费激励增加和区块规模受限而导致的交费激励减少之间的平衡。基于研究结果,本文在保险科技协同、区块链系统设计和具体场景实践等方面提出了政策建议,同时也指出了一些有待解决的现实问题。     

产品召回供应链中线性保险合约与订货决策

考虑一个由单供应商和单制造商组成的二级供应链,在不确定市场需求情形下考虑产品召回,站在制造商角度研究供应链线性保险合约下的最优订货决策以及最优线性保险合约决策。研究表明,最优的订货决策与产品召回概率以及线性保险系数相关,存在唯一的最优订货量来最大化制造商的利润。对于密度函数倒数的导数较大的一般需求分布函数,最优的线性保险系数与线性保险合约的固定费用以及产品召回概率有关。当产品召回概率和线性保险合约的固定费用均较小时或者产品召回概率较大但线性保险合约的固定费用适中时,制造商通过选择线性保险合约可以改善自己的利润。     

感知的创业激情、 信任与员工创新行为关系研究

实践中, 制造商可通过商业保险策略降低因零部件质量问题造成的经济损失.然而, 商业保险购买成本较高且可能导致供应商轻视质量问题, 放弃质量改进.为此, 本文基于完全信息下单周期两级供应链的采购合约决策模型, 研究制造商如何利用商业保险管理供应链质量风险的问题.通过比较研究, 找出商业保险策略的实施条件, 并给出最优采购合约及商业保险策略.研究结果表明: (1) 当供应商的企业规模较小、抗风险能力较低时, 商业保险策略可完全消除风险承受能力对双方交易的制约, 促进双方达成交易; (2) 当供应商的企业规模较大、抗风险能力较高时, 制造商可利用商业保险策略降低零部件采购价格, 提高期望利润; (3) 在商业保险策略下, 制造商的最优商业保险策略是全额投保; (4) 商业保险的实施不一定造成零部件质量水平的下降.当质量成本或供应商的风险承受能力较低时, 商业保险策略与质量改进之间具有互补效应.当风险承受能力和质量成本均比较高时, 商业保险策略与质量改进之间具有替代效应.     

Disasters as Learning Experiences or Disasters as Policy Opportunities? Examining Flood Insurance Purchases after Hurricanes

Flood insurance is a critical risk management strategy, contributing to greater resilience of individuals and communities. The occurrence of disasters has been observed to alter risk management choices, including the decision to insure. This has previously been explained by learning and behavioral biases. When it comes to flood insurance, however, federal disaster aid policy could also play a role since recipients of aid are required to maintain insurance. Using a database of flood insurance policies for all states on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States between 2001 and 2010, this article uses fixed effects models to examine how take‐up rates respond to the occurrence of hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as disaster declarations and aid requirements. Being hit by at least one hurricane in the previous year increases net flood insurance purchases by 7.2%. This effect dies out by three years after the storm. A presidential disaster declaration for floods increases take‐up rates by 6.7%. When disaster aid grants are made available to households, take‐up rates increase by 5%; this accounts for the majority of the increase in policies after occurrence of a hurricane. When the models are estimated taking into account which policies are required by disaster aid, hurricanes are estimated to lead to only a 1.5% increase in voluntary purchases. This overlooked federal policy that disaster aid recipients insure is responsible for a majority of insurance purchases postdisaster.     

董事责任保险能否提升公司价值?——基于公司治理视角的研究

董事责任保险作为上市公司治理的重要避险工具,在改善公司治理绩效的同时,也可能引发董事的道德风险,损害公司价值。董事责任保险参与公司治理能否产生积极的经济后果,显著提升企业价值,尚有待经验证据检验。为了深入探究董事责任保险对企业价值的影响机理,文章基于公司治理视角,以2007年-2015年我国沪深两市A股上市公司的数据为样本,采用倾向得分匹配方法,在控制样本自选择偏差后,研究董事责任保险购买决策对公司价值的影响。实证结果显示,不论以财务还是以会计绩效衡量,购买董事责任保险均能够显著提升公司价值。研究结论揭示了董事责任保险的综合治理效应,提供了转型经济下董事责任保险对公司价值整体影响的经验证据。