Australian demography at the millennium

This paper looks backwards over the last ten years to see what topics might concern Australian demographers in the future. The possibility of convergence or ’sameness’ is considered, but not proven. The main areas considered are historical demography, mortality, fertility, marriage, fertility regulation, internal migration, international migration, human resources, ageing, forecasting, the family life cycle, policy, and gender.     

A further look at catholic fertility

The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent to which suburbanization has influenced the traditional fertility differences observed between Catholics and Protestants. It is hypothesized that suburbanization has served to decrease religious differences in fertility, since in the more advanced stages of urbanism, that is, suburbanization, the Catholic population is likely to adopt the fertility patterns of the larger and more secularized society. Attention is focused on two objectives: (1) to examine selected aspects of fertility for Catholic8 and Protestants living in metropolitan areas and (2) to analyze religious differentials in fertility among residents in different parts of the metropolitan community.The data, consisting of a sample of households in six metropolitan areas in three population size classes, supported the general findings pertaining to religious differences in fertility that have been reported in the literature. Catholics had larger families, shorter average spacing between children, and longer fertility spans when compared to Protestants, even when a number of control variables were employed. Examining fertility differences between Catholics and Protestants in central city and suburban segments of large and small metropolitan areas, we found that the data indicated that marked Catholic-Protestant differences are still found in central cities. However, fertility differences between the two religious groups tended largely to disappear among suburban residents. The convergence in the fertility patterns of suburbanites is due to combined effects of higher fertility among Protestant suburban residents when compared to central city Protestants and the tendency of suburban Catholics to have fewer children than those who live in the city. The net result is convergence in suburban fertility.     

A new look at entropy and the life table

The mathematical derivations described in this paper offer a new look at the entropy of the life table, denoted by H. Contrary to previous claims, it is theoretically possible, and has been observed empirically, for life tables to have entropy values greater than unity. A re-expression of H as a weighted average of life expectancy at different ages relative to life expectancy at birth demonstrates clearly the conditions under which reductions in mortality by a fixed amount at all ages can result in even greater gains in life expectancy.     

A look at Philippine population in the year 2000

The major subject areas explored by the University of the Population Institute were fertility, mortality, the Filipino family and nuptiality, migration and urbanization, and the structure and growth of the labor force. Data were extracted primarily from the Philippine Censuses (1903-1970) the National Demographic Surveys of 1968 and 1973, and special surveys conducted by the Institute research team. On the basis of the findings, a range of alternative population futures is projected for the year 2000, with their respective policy implications. The estimate of the crude birthrate for 1970 placed the range at between 39.3 and 42.7. The crude birthrate may have declined by 21-23% in the last 70 years, and by almost 13% in 1960-1970 alone. On the national level, fertility rates will continue to decline if the trend of delayed marriages continues. Fertility was found to decrease with the introduction of the positive socioeconomic factors that make some regions more developed than others. The present low levels of mortality have decreased its importance in relation to fertility. Mortality prospects can be improved by several policy actions which are presented here in the order of priority. Current evidence points strongly to an increase in the proportion of single individuals who delay marriage and those not planning to marry at all. The record of internal migration in the Philippines during the 20th century has been dominated by the phenomenon of urbanization, which increased from 13% in 1903 to 33% in 1970. An effort needs to be made to achieve greater rural-urban balance. The country's high population growth has increased the number of job seekers in recent years; the expansion of the regional labor force in the 1960-1970 decade was highly correlated with the growth of regional populations. Fertility, mortality, nuptiality, migration, and urbanization are the major factors determining the growth and structure of Philippine population. Alternative projections for each of these factors were combined in different ways and 3 alternative scenarios for population in the year 2000 are presented.     

A fresh look at family planning communication

As a step toward development of a national information, education, and communication (IEC) plan, a reassessment of such efforts practiced by the agencies involved was undertaken. A paper published in 1978 by the Research Utilization Unit of the Population Information Division, Population Center Foundation, reviewed materials used and accounts of experience in conceptualizing and communicating family planning messages by 12 private and public sector agencies. The most common concepts employed by the agencies were small family size, responsible parenthood, family welfare, community and national development, birth spacing, delayed marriage, contraceptive use-effectiveness, "manliness," delayed 1st pregnancy, value and rights of children, human behavior and social environment, and population dynamics. Most of the messages were conceptualized and developed through formal and informal consultation with field staff. The need to consider the specific needs of target audiences was considered crucial, and thus decentralization of IEC production was recommended. Such decentralization has been a goal of the Philippine program since 1976, but the effort has been hampered by lack of local training and resources, and of studies to support successful implementation. Mass and mixed media approaches were found to be used by most of the agencies, although a reliance on interpersonal approaches was found to be most prevalent in rural areas. Among recommendations for policy makers were development of a systematized data base for IEC materials, regional capabilities in research and development, and studies of funding and existing resources.     

A second look at natural family planning

There is renewed interest in natural family planning (NFP) as the Philippine Population Program enters the 1980s. Much of this interest is due to the realization that, properly practiced, NFP can be a highly effective means of birth spacing. In 1978 the Special Committee to Review the Philippine Population Program recommended that more efforts be made to promote NFP. The different methods of NFP are reviewed. Sex without intercourse, coitus interruptus, and prolonged nursing are not officially recognized as NFP methods by the Program. The rhythm method was first described independently by Drs. Hermann Knaus of Austria and Kyusaku Ogino of Japan in the 1930s. Ogino's method of calculating a woman's fertile period is based on the lengths of the last 12 menstrual cycles which she recorded on a calendar. The advantages of rhythm are that it is inexpensive, it requires only the cost of charts which may be homemade, there are no physical side effects, control is in the woman's hands, and it is acceptable to people who consider it their duty to follow religious teachings. Disadvantages include: keeping constant, accurate records of cycles for long periods of time; the need for perseverance and correct interpretation of the chart; the possible need for medical advice and help; and the fear that something might upset a woman's cycle and change the time of ovulation. The continuation rates of rhythm acceptors in the Philippines are unimpressive. A study of 142 women revealed a high pregnancy/failure rate--25% for a 12-month period compared to 0 with oral contraception (OC) and the IUD's 2%. The basal body temperature method helps determine the unsafe period with some accuracy. Its premise is that there are slight but detectable changes in a woman's body temperature during her cycle. These changes herald ovulation. A special thermometer must record temperature changes of 0.1 degree Farenheit. This instrument and the charts are the only expenses involved. The reviewers of the Philippine Population Program noted that since the end of the unsafe period can be indicated only by the temperature, the total period of abstinence becomes long, although the basal body temperature method gives more or less 10 successive days for intercourse. The cervical mucus method, also known as the Billings method, takes into account the cervical secretions during the menstrual cycle. Appearance of this mucus is an indication of fertility. All that is required of a practitioner is to learn to distinguish the different sensations of wetness and dryness. The disadvantage is that the method becomes ineffective in areas where there is cervicitis or infection of the cervix. The symptom thermal method is the basal body temperature method combined with other NFP techniques and is widely used. With this method an accurate record of the 6 immediately preceding menstrual cycles is established. The start of the fertile period is set by substracting 20 days plus 1. The woman watches for symptoms like pelvic heaviness, breast softness, and mucus discharge.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

A first look at the 21st Century: Census 2000

This paper examines the initial results from Census 2000. It focuses onpopulation growth and distribution, and the five populationcharacteristics from the 100-percent data: age, sex, Hispanic origin, race, and householdrelationship. It explores emerging trends within an historical and global context.     

A study on mortality rates and expectation of life at birth in demography]

An "age-time-area diagram" (referred to as a-t diagram) which is used as the basis for discussing different used and applications of variously defined mortality rates, as well two kinds of measurements for life expectancy is proprosed. The proposal is built upon the Lexis diagram. The a-t diagram is used to define a new way of measuring child mortality, projecting population, and proposing a formula for measuring successive and nonsuccessive life expectancy.     

A reassessment of the demography of traditional rural China

An analysis of the composition, characteristics, and vital processes of the population of rural mainland China was undertaken using data collected as part of a study of land utilization carried out by Naking University in 1929-1931. These data have been reappraised using techniques for demographic analysis of faulty data which shows a consistent picture of the Chinese farmer of high morta moderate fertility, and early and universal marriage. Estimates of the singulate mean age at marriage was 17.5 for females and 21.3 for males. Fewer than 1 in 1000 women and 3 in 1000 men never married. The reported parity of older women was only slightly above 5, which disputes the very large historical family size that has been imputed to the chinese. There was a life expectancy of less than 25 years for each sex, and very high infant mortality. These characteristics were of sufficient persistence to have generated a stable age distribution.     

A new look at life and job satisfaction with sunbelt MBA's

Work and extra-work correlates of life and job satisfaction for a sample of MBA graduates (N=1495) are compared to those for a probability sample from the general public using the Rice, Near, Hunt model for analysis. For both groups, the unique relationship between life and job satisfaction is quite weak, however, predictability of job satisfaction is significantly different for MBA's.¹     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.     

Another look at fertility and social mobility

This is a response to Basil Zimmer's contention that the classical hypothesis connecting social mobility with fertility was rejected in the Princeton Fertility Study because of a faulty mode of analysis. Arguing from the findings of a strong association in a sample of Aberdeen women, Zimmer asserts that if social origin and destination were taken into account, the same relationship would have emerged in the U.S. data. The evidence from the Princeton Study is reviewed and new evidence presented which confirms the original findings of no relationship.     

A review of the relevance of demography to Australian water planning

Australia is in the process of implementing a new and comprehensive agenda of water policy reform, notably under the National Water Initiative (NWI). National, regional and local water plans are crucial components of the water policy framework. Together with other disciplines, demography can make important contributions to the water planning process. Demography is clearly relevant to urban water supply planning. It is also relevant to national, State/Territory and regional water planning: for example, demographers can assist with understanding who is affected by water plans, who uses water, and who is likely to be affected by new water policy initiatives such as markets and trading.     

Cuba: the demography of revolution

Cuba's post-revolution demographic trends, especially in regard to fertility and emigration, and the causes and consequences of these trends, were examined using available statistical data. The authors maintain that both fertility and emigration trends were highly infuenced by economic factors. The trends are described in the context of the social and economic changes instituted by the revolutionary government. Government policies were aimed at 1) eradicating inequalities in housing, income, education, and health; 2) improving the status of women; and 3) upgrading the living standards of the rural population. Government policies did alleviate many social problems and greatly improved the health and educational status of the population; however, these policies had a marked adverse effect on economic performance. The demographic transition began in Cuba earlier than in most other developing countries and it began long before the 1959 revolution. These earlier changes must be taken into account when assessing the impact of post-revolution policies on demographic trends. Cuba's birthrate declined from 26-14.8/1000 population between 1959-1979 and the total fertility rate declined from 3.7-1.9 between 1970-1978; however, during the 1960s there was a baby boom and the birth rate for 1963 exceeded 35/1000 population. The baby boom was largely a response to the temporary improvement in economic conditions which occurred shortly after the revolution. The decline in fertility during the 1970s was due in part to the increased availability of abortion and contraceptive services and to a decline in the marriage rate; however, Cuba's deteriorating economy was also a major contributing factor. The baby boom of the 1960s is negativley affecting the current economy of the country. Individuals born during the baby boom are entering adulthood and are contributing toward Cuba's current unemployment problems. Prior to the revolution, Cuba experienced a high rate of in-migration. Immediately after the revolution this pattern was reversed and between 1959-1980 more than 800,000 Cubans emigrated. Most of these emigrants went to the U.S. A large proportion of the earlier emigrants were members of the upper and middle socioeconomic classes. Recent emigrants were more evenly representative of all segments of Cuba's population. The socioeconomic characteristics of the emigrants are described and their adjustment in the U.S. is discussed. Tables provide statistical data on Cuba's demographic trends.