MONETARY EXPERIMENTS IN A NEOCLASSICAL MODEL

A Neoclassical Monetary Growth Model is formulated in which income is taken to be exogenous. A rise in the expected rate of inflation raises the price level but has an effect of indeterminate sign on the rate of interest. An increase in the quantity of money causes a more-than-proportional increase in the price level so that velocity rises. Therefore money is not neutral in the short run.     

ON CAPITAL, TIME AND THE NEOCLASSICAL PARABLES

Many of the paradoxes in capital theory arise from seeking a purely 'physical' measure for the aggregate stock of capital. Several recent papers made it clear that heterogeneous capital outfits cannot be measured by a single aggregate index which is independent of the rate of interest. This paper defines and proves the general properties of an index of capital intensity — the degree of 'roundaboutnes'— which admits both the physical and the time dimensions of capital. A modified form of the neoclassical parables is defined and proved to be universally valid despite reswitching.     

REFERENDUM DYNAMICS AND THE IRISH DIVORCE AMENDMENT

Referendums are typically interpreted in terms unique to a particulartime and place; the 1986 Irish divorce referendum has been noexception. Here this vote is examined in light of referendumsin the United States and elsewhere in an attempt to identifymore pervasive patterns. It is concluded that there is a referendumdynamic capable of anticipating the diverse fluoridation votesof the 1950s, the ERA campaigns of the 1970s, and the Irishdivorce vote of 1986, all of which displayed large voter shiftsfrom an initial majority in favor to an eventual majority against.The dynamic process involved appears to be a pattern of eliteretreat brought about by community conflict, rather than theresult of confusion, ignorance, a herd instinct, or alienationin the electorate.     

A MODEL OF GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF INPUT-ENHANCING FACTORS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

We introduce and estimate a growth model involving non-neutral technical change characterized by the presence of input-enhancing factors that vary across countries and serve to offset (and potentially eliminate) diminishing returns to capital. Our empirical results, however, indicate that diminishing returns to capital proves too strong to be overcome by, say, capital-enhancing factors. Consequently, our model predicts a conditional convergence of output per worker across countries, with the speed of convergence being slower than that found in earlier models involving neutral technical change.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE GROWTH ACCOUNTING PERSPECTIVE

A positive relationship between FDI and economic growth under two economic conditions has been estimated: a sufficient level of human capital and well-developed financial markets, respectively. However, these two conditions can be fundamentally different catalysts for FDI to promote economic growth in the perspective of growth accounting. Using data from 69 countries over 1970–1989, we find that FDI promotes productivity growth only when the host country reaches a threshold level of human capital; and FDI promotes capital growth only when a certain level of financial development is achieved. ( JEL F21)     

THE MANAGEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF ANOMALIES IN SCIENTIFIC WORK

This article examines the dynamics of anomalies as part of scientific work. Several types of anomaly are identified: mistakes, artifacts, fraud, and discovery; and typical trajectories for artifacts are described: the establishment of suspected artifacts, changes from unacceptable to acceptable, changes in significance, visibility, and means of control. The conditions under which an anomaly changes status are examined. A detailed example of an anomaly trajectory is presented, analyzing an anomaly in neuroscience research and tracing its career from 1870 to the present.     

INFLATION DYNAMICS AND SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

We estimate a forward‐looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the United States using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters as proxy for expected inflation. We obtain significant and plausible estimates for the structural parameters independently of whether we use the output gap or unit labor costs as a measure of marginal costs. Moreover, when estimating a Phillips curve where lagged inflation enters due to price indexation by nonreoptimizing firms, we obtain significant parameter estimates of the sign predicted by theory independently of the marginal cost measure used. (JEL E31)     

THE INTERPERSONAL DYNAMICS AND TREATMENT OF DUAL TRAUMA COUPLES

Many trauma survivor dyads pose intense challenges for couples and marital therapists. Interpersonal reactivity, transference, emotional withdrawal, and associated responses complicate these difficult yet often rewarding cases. Unique aspects and interpersonal dynamics of these couples include specific themes, characteristics, and patterns. Treatment approaches focus on the systemic influences of trauma on interpersonal dynamics and offer interventions to challenge disruptive interactions, attend to the original traumas, and develop healthy relationship patterns.     

THE ROLE OF MONITORING OF CORRUPTION IN A SIMPLE ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL

This article analyzes the relationship between economic growth and the monitoring of corruption. In our theoretical model, we derive a nonlinear relationship between the level of monitoring and economic growth, as well as between corruption and economic growth. At low monitoring levels, the economy experiences widespread corruption and medium growth rates, whereas no corruption occurs at intermediate monitoring levels, but low growth rates are recorded. At high monitoring levels, no corruption takes place and high growth rates are observed. The model is estimated using a dynamic panel data approach for Italy. Empirical results support the theoretical model. (JEL C33, D73, K42)     

AGENCY GROWTH, SALARIES AND THE PROTECTED BUREAUCRAT

In contrast to numerous assertions in the literature on bureaucratic behavior that government employees seek to promote the growth of their agencies to increase their salaries, this paper offers empirical evidence indicating the absence of a significant positive relationship between agency growth and salaries. The impact of agency growth on salaries is estimated using a random sample of individual federal white-collar employees. Inspection of civil service rules reveals that most federal employees are highly insulated from fluctuations in agency staffing or budget appropriations. The existence of a highly protected bureaucracy raises questions about the control and performance of federal workers.     

EARNINGS GROWTH ON THE JOB AND BETWEEN JOBS

This paper uses detailed data on the salary histories of individuals to show how an individual's observed earnings growth can be decomposed into growth occurring on the job and growth occurring between jobs. It is shown that the relative contributions of these two components to overall earnings growth differ across race and education groups. Further, as predicted by the specific training hypothesis, the more mobile individuals are found to have smaller on-the-job earnings gains in absolute terms than the less mobile.     

ESTIMATING THE FISHER EFFECT AND THE STOCHASTIC MONEY GROWTH PROCESS

This paper demonstrates that a change in the stochastic process generating money can alter the relationships between money and inflation and between inflation and interest rates. The extent to which inflation is forecastable is shown to depend significantly on the extent to which money is forecastable. Thus, the greater the persistence and forecastability of money, the greater the likelihood of observing a statistically significant Fisher effect.
US. data over the 1953–86 period are used to demonstrate that instability in the Fisher effect coincides with changes in the stochastic process generating money. There is a significantly stronger Fisher effect during a subsample in which money—and hence inflation—are more predictable.