Determinants of presidents’ legislative support in the House, 1949–1995

This paper has several purposes. First, it illustrates the changing nature of research on presidential–congressional relations. In general, scholarship has moved away from viewing the president as the dominant actor in the relationship, toward one of congressional influence, and ultimately toward emphasizing more equal power sharing between the two institutions. Second, we discuss our use of the most widely used measures of such relationships, presidents’ legislative support and success and our rationale for choosing the former. Third, we introduce three broad environments of presidential–congressional relations in order to explain such support from what we call a multiple perspectives approach. We find that variables from each of the three environments are important in explaining presidential support in the House. Fourth, we control for policy areas using the two presidencies typology and observe significant differences in support by domestic and foreign policy. Our multivariate two stage least squares (2SLS) analysis explains considerable variance in support across all three models. Finally, we explicate how our approach improves our understanding of this important presidential–congressional interaction.     

How Policy Conditions the Impact of Presidential Speeches on Legislative Success*

Objective. Although the impact of the president's rhetoric on public opinion remains unfound, it appears to increase the president's success in Congress. This article argues that instead of moving public opinion, presidential speeches act as informational cues for legislators and holds that the impact of the president's public speeches in Congress is conditional on the salience and complexity of the policy voted on by Congress. Method. I use probit methodology to examine the effect of presidential rhetoric on the likelihood of presidential success on House roll‐call votes from 1989–2000. An interactive model assesses the conditioning impact a policy's salience and complexity have on the relationship between presidential rhetoric and legislative success. Results. Presidential rhetoric increases the president's legislative success on votes pertaining to policies that are both salient and complex. Conclusion. Presidential rhetoric matters to the president's relationship with Congress, despite the limited impact it appears to have on public opinion.     

Determinants of presidential position taking in Congress, 1949–1995

In this paper we seek to explain the activity presidential position taking on roll call votes in the House. Position taking may help presidents pursue their policy agendas, but time and available resources constrain their ability to take positions. Even though position taking is a discretionary presidential action, it occurs in the legislative arena and, thus, presidents must consider elements in both institutions as well as outside conditions when making this decision. Accordingly, we posit a multiple perspectives approach to explain the number of presidential positions on votes in the House. Our multivariate two-stage least squares regression reveals that variables from all three environments (executive, legislative and exogenous) within our multiple perspectives approach are necessary to adequately explain presidential position taking overall and when divided according to domestic and foreign policy positions.     

A duration analysis of congressional widows’ careers

The extensive congressional politics literature on House member retirement has yet to consider an important and unique subgroup of members – congressional widows. Using a semi-parametric Cox Model, this paper examines the duration of widows’ careers in the United States House of Representatives. Of particular concern are the relationships between years in office and age, education, region, prior political experience, committee positions, career ceilings, majority/minority status, and majority party size. We find that age, region, and majority party size are most relevant to understanding lengths of widows’ careers. In doing so, we contribute to the literature on political widows, gender in politics, as well as more general scholarship centered on congressional careers.     

When the Export of Social Problems Is No Longer Possible: Immigration Policies and Unemployment in Switzerland

Throughout the twentieth century, Switzerland has been one of the OECD countries with the highest proportion of immigrants in its population. The aim of this article is to show how institutional factors have shaped the opportunities for change in immigration and immigrant‐employment‐related policies there in the 1990s. Whereas unemployment had remained low in the 1970s and 1980s, there was a marked increase at the beginning of the 1990s. Existing migration policies were considered a central cause of this increase, since the great majority of foreigners who had come and settled in Switzerland in the periods of economic expansion were low‐skilled, and were now over‐represented among the unemployed. The reforms undertaken in the field of immigration and integration policy to respond to these new problems have been determined by specific institutional factors: direct democracy, a defensive migration regime, the development of immigrant rights and the weak autonomy of the central state. These factors account to a large extent for the limited scope and specific pathways of policy reforms in these two domains.     

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act*

Objective. The goal of the study is to empirically assess the extent of partisan and incumbent gerrymandering in the 2000 congressional redistricting. Critics of congressional redistricting have argued that recent partisan gerrymandering severely undermines electoral competitiveness to the point of violating constitutional equal protection standards. Method. We first analyze the legal precedents and arguments central to the contemporary redistricting debate. We then analyze district‐level data measuring the change in a congressional incumbent's presidential party vote share before and after the 2000 redistricting. We conduct regression analyses that test for partisan and incumbent gerrymandering effects with an eye toward noting implications for the Voting Rights Act, particularly majority‐minority districting. Results. We find that recent redistricting significantly contributed to a further decline in electoral competitiveness; however, most of this decline in competitiveness came through incumbency protection, not partisan gerrymandering. Majority‐minority districts lost about 5 percent incumbent party vote share, though only 3 percent in southern states. Conclusion. Given these results, we conclude that the logic of partisan gerrymandering is at variance with the mandate of racial redistricting. One effect of establishing a strict judicial standard limiting statewide partisan biases would be to restrict states' capacity to draw majority‐minority districts.     

Black Homeownership: The Role of Temporal Changes and Residential Segregation at the End of the 20th Century*

Objective. This study examines how the odds of a black renter becoming a homeowner changed during the 1990s, considering significant policy changes aimed at dismantling discriminatory barriers to nonwhite homeownership during that time period and various housing‐market characteristics, including the level of residential segregation. Methods. This study uses geocoded data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and from the 1990 and 2000 Censuses to estimate an event‐history model of transition into homeownership for black Americans. Results. The results of this study suggest that blacks benefited from the changing home‐lending environment and were more likely to become homeowners during the 1990s. These improvements appear to be both absolute and relative to whites. This implies that the policy changes had some success. Nevertheless, blacks were significantly less likely to become homeowners during the study period—even after controlling for a variety of factors known to be associated with homeownership—suggesting that further reforms may be necessary to eradicate disparities in access to homeownership between whites and blacks. The analysis also shows that blacks residing in metro areas with the highest levels of racial isolation were significantly more likely to become homeowners than blacks residing in metro areas with the lowest levels of isolation. Conclusion. The study results show that the policy reforms of the 1990s likely had a salutary effect on black homeownership. The results also suggest that residential segregation matters to black homeownership in complex ways.     

Three Routes to Pension Reform: Politics and Institutions in Reforming Pensions in Denmark,Finland and Sweden

By analysing pension reforms in three Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland and Sweden – that apply different institutional solutions in their old‐age security programmes, this article argues that the political processes that shaped the country‐specific pension set‐ups in the 1950s and 1960s had important ramifications for subsequent reform possibilities. A high degree of inertia exists not only in the institutions themselves but also in the political reform options and the ways in which pensions were reformed. The analysis shows that the ‘new politics’ was not new in any of the three countries. Furthermore, given the differences in the three cases, the analysis questions the nature of pension reform. The Swedish reform in the late 1990s was a ‘big bang’ that eliminated the old and changed everything; the Finns built on piecemeal reforms of conversion that gradually changed the whole system; and, while the Danish story appears to be one of stability and status quo, the drift of Danish policy ultimately changed the basic characteristics of the system. Although all three countries have more or less thoroughly reformed their pensions, the reform processes have differed according to both historical legacies and institutional frameworks.     

Activation Reform and Inter‐Agency Co‐operation – Local Consequences of Mixed Modes of Governance in Sweden

Organizational reform has become a recurring solution to problems of social exclusion and unemployment. In Europe, and other parts of the world, there is a trend towards policies of ‘activation’ in employment and social policy. The idea of flexible, individualized and tailor‐made services is coupled with managerial and market‐based reforms as well as collaborative governance. In these complex structures of service provision, coordination and inter‐agency co‐operation have become key concerns. Based on a study of a recent reform of programmes for newly arrived refugees in Sweden (Etableringsreformen), this article seeks to contribute to the literature on governance of ‘activation’ by examining the consequences of mixed modes of governance (market and collaborative) on local inter‐agency co‐operation. Drawing on data from in‐depth case studies in two municipalities, it is demonstrated how the coupling of managerial practices and quasi‐markets with existing collaborative arrangements has created barriers for inter‐agency co‐operation. The results indicate that institutional tensions between governance forms represent an important factor for explaining governance failure in this policy area.     

Marketisation policies in different contexts: Consequences for home‐care workers in Germany,Japan and Sweden

Market‐oriented restructurings of long‐term care policies contribute significantly to the aggravation of care workers’ situations. This article focuses on the effects of broader long‐term care policy developments on market‐oriented reforms. Germany, Japan and Sweden are three countries that have introduced market‐oriented reforms into home‐based care provision embedded in distinct long‐term care policy developments. Conceptually, this article draws on comparative research on care to define the institutional dimensions of long‐term care policies. Empirically, the research is based on policy analyses, as well as on national statistics and a comparative research project on home‐care workers in the aforementioned countries. The findings reveal the mediating impact of the extension and decline of long‐term public care support and the corresponding development of the care infrastructure on both the restructuring of care work and the assessments of the care workers themselves.     

Exploring voting behavior on American Indian legislation in the United States Congress

Using roll call data from 1970 to 2000, this study explores the impacts of partisanship, regionalism, and Indian constituency on congressional pro-Indian voting in the U.S. House and Senate. This study incorporates and tests a new measure of constituency by accounting for the presence of a federally recognized tribe within congressional districts. The presence of an Indian nation has a positive effect on the voting behavior of elected officials concerning American Indian legislation, with a significant relationship observed between pro-Indian voting and congressional districts with Indian tribes. The results also suggest a strong partisan influence on the likelihood of voting with the pro-Indian position in both the House and the Senate, but with notable differences between the two chambers. Finally, partisan voting on Indian legislation intensified from the 1970s to the late 1990s, which led to more contentious voting patterns on Indian affairs in the legislative branch over time.     

Child involvement in treatment planning and assessment in Israel

What can facilitate at‐risk children's involvement in treatment planning and assessment? We examine this question by investigating the perceptions, attitudes, and characteristics of Israeli social workers. We examine whether their seniority, views on the importance of children's participation, and their attitudes toward parents are related to their report of at‐risk children's involvement in treatment planning and placement decisions. At‐risk children's involvement includes preparing them to appear before the committees that handle placement decisions for youth and the social workers' willingness to consider children's opinions. Eighty coordinators of these committees in social services departments in Israel participated. Our findings indicate that, based on the coordinators' answers, at‐risk children are more likely to be involved in treatment planning and assessment committees when the child protection officers prepare parents prior to participating in the committee meetings, and when the coordinators assigned the case are more senior. The influence of children's opinions on the decisions of the committees was predicted by the weight their parents' opinions carried and whether their parents received any relevant materials prior to the committee meetings. Our findings highlight the importance of involving parents in treatment planning and assessment committees' decision making.     

Channels of monetary policy transmission in Vietnam

Since the economic reforms launched in 1986, the Vietnamese economy has registered impressive economic growth. While foreign investment is providing much needed capital, through the conduct of monetary policy, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), which is an integral part of the government of Vietnam, is also playing an important role in nurturing the economic growth. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the success of the SBV policies. Monetary policy actions affect all sectors of real economies with a significant lag. Without a good understanding of the transmission mechanism, monetary policy actions may not achieve the desired outcomes. Using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010, this paper focuses on monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Vietnam. Specifically, we consider the dynamic response of the Vietnamese economy to interest rate, exchange rate and foreign shocks. The estimated results based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology suggest that monetary shocks tend to have a strong influence on Vietnam’s output. We find that Vietnam’s monetary policy is relatively more susceptible to foreign shocks.     

Understanding congressional foreign policy innovators: Mapping entrepreneurs and their strategies

Since World War II, a small group of assertive MCs have chosen to lead on foreign policy issues about which they care, without waiting on the administration to take action. Significant foreign policy innovation has been the result. From the coldest days of the Cold War to the changed circumstances after 9/11, important congressional initiatives attributable to a few key individuals can be found. Drawing on an original quantitative dataset of post-World War II congressional foreign policy activity, interviews with members and their staffs, and primary and secondary research, this paper: (a) discusses the characteristics and impact of these policymakers; (b) develops categories of entrepreneurs, drawn from issues to which entrepreneurs have devoted their attention; and (c) derives strategies of entrepreneurship drawn from the activities and avenues utilized by the entrepreneurs.     

Portuguese healthcare reforms in the context of crisis: External pressure or domestic choice?

As a result of the recent economic crisis, in 2011, Portugal signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the European Central Bank, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund (the “Troika”). In exchange for Troika's financial assistance, the Memorandum required the implementation of a specific set of reforms targeted at the healthcare sector. The literature on policy reforms in the context of crisis and conditionality argues that governments have restricted room to manoeuver in responding to external pressure. We challenge this view, finding that even in cases of conditionality and strong external pressures, crisis can be used as a window of opportunity for reforms substantially shaped by domestic policy choices. In the case of Portuguese health reforms, these choices were based on pre‐existing reform plans aimed on resolving country‐specific deficiencies of the healthcare system and were enabled by the two main political parties' strategies of tacit cooperation and blame avoidance. The article emphasizes the need for more fine‐grained analysis of welfare reforms in the crisis that pays equal attention to the institutional characteristics and the political context of the affected countries.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

Events,Politics and Patterns of Policy‐Making: Impact of Major Incidents on Health Sector Regulatory Reforms in the UK and Japan

This article examines the major malpractice incidents in the late 1990s through early 2000s in the UK and Japan, comparing how these incidents opened up pathways for a new type of hospital regulation in each case. Applying John Kingdon's three‐stream model of agenda‐setting and policy change, the article argues that governance arrangements as well as the policy instruments that a government has at its disposal determine how an event could be translated into a political agenda by throwing light on the problems within the public domain. The long‐term effect of such adverse events is therefore determined by how open the relevant institutional arrangements are, and is enhanced if actors constantly scrutinize the system by proactively setting the agenda. A higher level of political accountability in the UK led to British politicians taking a greater role in promoting patient‐led reforms than Japanese counterparts. However, a political system with clear accountability is more conscious of its own involvement and any potential blame it might receive for policy failures. Therefore, the political class could become more engaged in continuous reforms and the delegation of tasks rather than a constant search for remedial actions. The article sheds light on the interactive aspects of the particular triggering events discussed through the decade of regulatory developments in the two health‐care systems.     

Does party support help candidates win?

The parties’ congressional campaign committees have made it their business to strategically provide contributions to candidate campaigns in order to help their candidates win. However, the effectiveness of these contributions in terms of increasing the competitiveness of party-sponsored candidates remains untested. Using contribution data from the U.S. Federal Election Commission in a series of mixed effects models as well as a matching analysis, the receipt of direct party contributions and coordinated support is shown to significantly improve the competitive position of challengers but not open seat candidates in races for the House. Further, independent expenditures by the parties do not significantly increase candidates’ competitiveness. The implications of these results for future party strategies are explored.     

Big Business in a Thin Market: Understanding the Privatization of Residential Care for Children and Youth in Sweden

This article analyzes the transformation of Swedish residential care for children from a regionally coordinated, public social service system into a thin, but highly profitable, national spot market in which large corporations have a growing presence. Marketization and privatization are theorized as complex processes, through which the institutional structure and logics of this small, but significant, social policy field changed profoundly. Using official documents, register data, media reports and existing research, three consecutive phases in the development of the children's home market are identified since the early 1980s. Change was driven on one hand by policies inspired by New Public Management, which shifted public authority horizontally to the private sector, and vertically to local authorities (funding) and to the state (regulation). On the other hand were the responses of local authorities and private actors to the changing incentives that policy shifts entailed. During the first two phases, both the proportion and size of for‐profit providers increased, and the model of family‐like care was replaced by a professional model. Cutting across the trend of privatization in the third phase was establishment of a parallel system of homes for unaccompanied refugee children – mostly in public ownership. Similarities with privatization in the English system of children's care homes are noted. By showing how the Swedish market for residential care has been created by policy and by actors’ responses to those reforms, the article provides a foundation for thinking through how the predictable, significant and well‐documented problems of such care markets might be addressed.