The population problems in the countryside of China from the viewpoint of ecological economy]

There is a very close relationship between the population and the economy. The economy is the foundation for the existence and development of the population. Different socioeconomic patterns will determine population rules and population development, they have a strong influence on the social economy and the development of the entire society, and they may control the pace of social and economic development. In the last 30 years, excessive population growth has caused a great many difficulties for Socialist construction, overburdened agriculture, and created an imbalance in agricultural ecology. In order to understand the relationship between the development of the agricultural population and agricultural production, we have to understand to dominant position held by people in an agricultural ecology system. People have to control their own reproduction and match it with the productivity of the agricultural ecology system. Unrestrained population growth in the countryside is the main reason for an imbalance in China's agricultural ecology. Urgent action is needed to control the population growth in the rural areas, to fully utilized the available labor force, to promote the level of agricultural productivity, and to provide more employment opportunities. The final goal is to match China's huge agricultural human resources with its rich resources. investment should be encouraged to increase the wisdom and quality of the agricultural population. Both the quality and quantity of the agricultural labor force should also match development of agricultural productivity. In this way, a normal condition of agricultural ecology may be maintained.     

黑龙江省农村剩余劳动力转移问题研究

黑龙江省是中国粮食主产区,粮食综合生产能力在一定程度上取决于该省农民就业程度与效果。目前,黑龙江省农村剩余劳动力不但数量大,而且,转移时遇到的困难和问题多。剩余劳动力转移问题的解决,对黑龙江农村经济的发展尤为重要,剩余劳动力转移出去,才能提高农业生产率,实现农业的适度规模经营,才能提高农业吸收现代技术的能力,真正实现农业的现代化,把黑龙江省农村建成社会主义新农村。     

On the relationship between population and means of subsistence]

Population is the basis of all social activites and social production. Population growth and development must have a definite means of subsistence to meet its cultural and material needs. The larger the population of a country, the greater is its demand for consumer goods and, likewise, the yield of its means of subsistence should be greater. Population brings about the unification of production and consumption. Furthermore, the ratio of population to the means of subsistence must be maintained at an appropriate level. Population growth must be slower then the growth of the means of subsistence in order to ensure continuous economic expansion and population increase. However, there are some people, notably Malthus, who believe that the balance between population growth and the means of subsistence should be equal. It is crucial to note differences between Marxist and Malthusian points of view. The basic outlook on the nature of the relationship between population and the means of subsistence is different. For Malthusians, it is a matter of the number of people and the quantity of the means of subsistence. For Marxists, the relationship is a historically determined social relationship. For Malthusians, population development is the primary force behind social development, i.e., the imbalance between population and the means of subsistence stems from social ills. Marxists differ from this in believing that population cannot be divorced from material production. Malthusians believe that population surplus derives from a population increase that is greater than an increase in the means of subsistence. Marxists believe a population surplus is also an historically determined social relationship. The Malthusian outlook for the future of population and the means of subsistence is pessimistic, whereas the Marxian view embodies the optimism of revolution.     

Agricultural backwardness being the fundamental cause of rapid population growth]

We have been an agricultural country for more than 2000 years. The low level of mechanization and dependence of manpower in our agriculture required a large quantity of labor. Therefore, development of Chinese feudal society was closely related to the population growth. After the establishment of a new socialistic China, the rapid development of agricultural production resulted in our 1st population boom (1952 to 1957). Later the rapid development of heavy industry demanded the transfer of a large amount of labor from agriculture. The shortage of labor in China caused reductions in agriculture and a 2nd population boom. The backward nature of China's agriculture requires increased labor input to increase production. On the other hand, the increased productivity does not match the demands of the increased population. Consequently, living standards in the society decrease and the population growth slows. The emphasis on population control and family planning is indeed beneficial to China's economy. The fundamental solution of China's population problem must rely on a technical revolution in agriculture and increased agricultural productivity.     

现阶段我国农业主产区的剩余劳动力转移特征探析

农业主产区是我国重要的农业生产区,农村剩余劳动力问题在农业主产区尤其突出,探讨我国农业主产区的剩余劳动力转移特征,意义重大.本文从剩余劳动力转移的规模和数量、转移的地域特征、产业特征及特移的效益特征等方面出发,探讨了现阶段我国农业主产区剩余劳动力的转移特征.     

Emphasizing ideological education, implementing birth control measures and carrying out family planning in an appropriate way]

Since the establishment of responsible production system, certain existing measures for family planning have lost their original effectiveness. At the same time, some changes in the peasants' minds concerning family planning have also taken place. Many peasant families, especially those which have no male child, wish to have more children. In order to solve this problem, family planning work should be done all over again from the lowest administrative level. Through correct population and ideological education, the general public may understand that there is a surplus of agricultural labor and a shortage of arable land at the present time. Secondly, birth control measures, family planning techniques, and training of medical personnel should be improved in order to serve the people better. A full-time working staff for family planning work should be increased so that they may work closely with local people and solve practical problems. In addition, nursing homes should be established and managed well in each commune. All such nursing homes should receive financial support from the State. In the this way, childless aging people may receive proper care after retirement. The worries of those single-child households may also be greatly reduced. The overall resistance met by family planning personnel is thus eliminated.     

Land Use and Marriage Timing in Nepal

I examine the relationship between patterns of land use and marriage timing in the Chitwan Valley, a rural area in south-central Nepal. In this setting, I conceptualize a relevant dimension of land use as the portion of land in each neighborhood devoted to agriculture. Using discrete-time event history models, I examine the relationship between the proportion of land devoted to agriculture and the rate of marriage among 811 never-married individuals aged 15–20 years. Agricultural land has a positive association with marriage rates. As potential intervening mechanisms between agricultural land and marriage rates, I propose nonfamily organizations, school and work activities, and local marriage markets. A portion of the relationship between land and marriage rates appears to be mediated through the accessibility of nonfamily employers. Respondents’ actual employment activities, however, fail to mediate the effects of agricultural land or nonfamily employers. The precise mechanisms linking land use to marriage remain unclear.     

中国农村人口老龄化对农业产出影响的量化研究

文章定量测度了1978年以来中国农业产出的特征事实并分析相关要素的影响程度。结果表明,1978～2002年中国农业劳动力相对过剩;2002年以后农村老年人口比重升高与劳动力转移对农业产出产生显著负作用;1990～2009年农村老年人口比重提高与劳动力转移年均对农业劳动投入指数下拉2.262个百分点,尤其2003年以来劳动投入对农业产出的贡献度和贡献率均为负值。     

我国农业剩余劳动力出路的若干思考

我国农村城镇化进程缓慢 ,滞后了第三产业的发展 ,在很大程度上也阻碍了农业劳动力向非农产业的转移 ,而且今后一段时间我国农村劳动力的绝对量会大幅度增加 ,这就使得农村的就业问题显得尤为突出。大力推行农业产业化 ,实现农产品的多层次增值和劳动力的多渠道就业 ,同时大力开发小城镇 ,扩大第三产业规模 ,是促使农业剩余劳动力实现产业和空间转移的途径     

Agricultural production responsibility system and the work of family planning in the rural area]

With the establishment of the agricultural production responsibility system, the entire agricultural management and economic system has undergone great changes, and family planning in rural areas has met with many difficulties. Because of this responsibility system, households with more manpower seem to become wealthy more rapidly than others. An existing belief among the rural population is that more children will provide a larger labor force and thus more income. Birth control and family planning are therefore becoming more difficult. In order to change existing beliefs, a comprehensive ideological education for peasants is needed so that they may understand the question of birth control from the viewpoints of national interests. Economic rewards and administrative restrictions may be used as necessary birth control measures. Agricultural production and family planning can be managed well if there is close contact and cooperation between the cadres and the masses. Extra care and benefits should be given to women of childbearing age who undergo birth control operations and agree to a single child in each household. Welfare programs for the masses, such as kindergartens and nursing homes must be established in order to reduce their worries. In addition, efforts are needed to study the new situation and solve new problems. The goal of controlling the rural population growth should be achiefed through practical work and experience.     

The integration and coordination of strategies for population growth and economic development]

Strategies on population growth are the guiding principles for population reproduction and activity. A strategy for economic development is the fundamental policy directing all the economic activities of the nation. These 2 strategies are closely related and support each other. They share some common grounds: 1) with a large population and a high percentage of the population being peasant, the labor productivity remains rather low, and population pressure on the economy is intense; 2) when a country has large territory and rich natural resources, the average arable land for each individual is still not much, and some available resources for each individual are also limited; and 3) the distribution of the population is out of balance. The areas with a higher population density receive more pressure on their economy. This situation explains the need to improve the population distribution. Labor resources should match reasonable with natural resources in order to reduce the pressure on areas with a high population density. Because of the labor's low level professional skill and poor management, modernized constructions have met with serious troubles. Moreover, the traditional view on population and population growth also needs correction. In order to integrate and coordinate these 2 strategies, one needs to understand correctly the connection between the two, and also understand the effects of the economy on the population. In the 2nd step, we need to pay attention to how to control the size of population and improve quality in order to match modernized production patterns. The balance between the two should be achieved with constant efforts. In population growth strategy, efforts are needed to limit quantity, improve quality, adjust the population structure, and redesign the geographical distribution of the population. In the economic development strategy, efforts are needed to promote economic effectiveness, a balanced development and a sustained growth for the national economy, in order to increase industrial and agricultural production and provide more income for each individual.     

论农业剩余劳动力的浅层次转移

目前 ,我国农业剩余劳动力转移面临的困境是 :1 .供给量过大 ;2 .城市就业压力增大 ;3.乡镇企业吸收能力减弱 ;4 .农民自身素质低下。在这种背景下 ,引导农业剩余劳动力实现就近就地的浅层次转移就变得非常必要和实际。要实现浅层次转移就应注意发展高质量农业 ,大力发展农村工业和第三产业 ,完善劳动力的流迁机制     

中国城市化发展对粮食生产影响分析

1990年之后,我国粮食生产变动较大,同时我国城市化的两个主要方面——人口城市化和土地利用城市化继续迅速发展,分别表现为:粮食总产量波动很大,人均粮食产量呈减少趋势;人口城市化保持快速推进,导致农业劳动力数量减少、素质弱化;土地利用的城市化发展速度更快,造成耕地面积减少、质量不断降低。数据分析显示,我国目前粮食生产仍主要依靠劳动力和耕地两大基本要素的投入,因此城市化的上述发展特征,将对中国粮食生产造成不利影响。     

基于农业产业集群的我国农村剩余劳动力就业问题研究

解决“三农”问题关键是解决农村剩余劳力就业,然而受美国金融危机影响,农村剩余劳动力就业困难更加突出。在各种解决问题的途径中,发展农业产业集群是比较有效的。本文深入分析了农业产业集群吸纳农村剩余劳动力就业的作用机理和面临的障碍．提出了制定科学的农业集群规划、创造良好的发展环境、鼓励返乡农民就地创业等建议．以解决农村剩余劳力就业问题。     

A tentative discussion on population control in Hangzhou and direction of its development]

Hangzhou is a city noted for its scenic beauty. In recent years, developments in industrial and agricultural production, cultural and educational improvements, and various constructions have made Hangzhou a more modernized city, and its population growth has become more rapid. According to one estimate, the number of childbearing women in 1987 will increase by 61% over the 1978 figure. With the mechanic (mobility) growth rate being higher than the natural growth rate, a large population is moving into Hangzhou each year, and the problem of overpopulation is becoming increasingly serious. The supply of newly built residences cannot match the demand, and the living standard is declining. Cultural and educational establishments, health care, and public facilities are unable to catch up with the speed of the population growth. Problems such as unemployment, traffic congestion, and environmental pollution are becoming more serious. In order to cope with the overall situation, the natural growth rate of the urban population should be controlled, and every married couple should be urged to have only 1 child. Satellite cities should be established and developed to match the city's economic development. Another necessary step is the redistribution of existing factories and industries inside the city and of the city's population so as to reduce pollution and noise. The increased labor population should receive better care in order to increase their productivity. Work in gardening and services should be encouraged in order to ease the pressure of unemployment and increase the tourist income.     

A preliminary analysis of the internal migration of Indonesia]

Like most developing nations, Indonesia is facing a serious population problem. According to statistics, Indonesia has a population of 147,490,298, the fifth largest in the world. The distribution of its population, however, is rather out of balance. For example, the island of Java has an area which constitutes 6.89% of the entire country, but the population of this island is about 61.9% of the country's total. In other areas of the country, population density is low. In the overpopulated areas, there is a surplus of labor. In the areas where the population is scarce, there is a shortage of labor. Because of this situation, the land and natural resources in Indonesia cannot be fully utilized. The Indonesia government is becoming increasingly interested in internal migration in order to solve the population problem and revive the national economy. A series of measures has been taken to redistribute the internal population. First of all, individuals and their families who accept internal migration are entitled to economic benefits in land selection, housing, a food and seed supply, and tax exemptions. With the establishment of migration centers, economic development, expansion of arable land, factories, and construction of roads and development of transportation, the newly developed areas may eventually become administrative units under a province or county. Government offices are being established to handle special problems of migrants. The government is taking care of the migrants' needs in education, medicine and health care, and banking and loans. The measures have been helpful to encourage internal migration and reduce the imbalance of the population distribution, but they have proved to be insufficient. The Indonesian government has realized that birth control is a necessary measure to be taken in order to solve the population problem.     

Land use and first birth timing in an agricultural setting

The dramatic changes in the earth’s landscape have prompted increased interest in the links between population, land use, and land cover. Previous research emphasized the notion of population pressure (population pressure increases demands on natural resources causing changes in land use), overlooking the potentially important effects of changes in land use on humans. Using multiple data sets from the Chitwan Valley Family Study in Nepal, we test competing hypotheses about the impact of land use on first birth timing. We argue that while agricultural land should encourage early childbearing, land area devoted to public infrastructure should discourage it. The results show that individuals from neighborhoods with larger proportions of land under agriculture experienced first birth at rates higher than those from neighborhoods with smaller proportions. On the other hand, individuals from neighborhoods with larger proportions of land under public infrastructure experienced first birth at rates lower than those from neighborhoods with smaller proportions. However, the effects of public infrastructure are not as strong as the land area devoted to agriculture.

Economic development with limited supplies of family labor: Chinese peasant families in balancing demographic and economic requisites

Family planning (FP) in rural China, particularly the ramifications of the 1-child policy, has profound implications and ramifications for family-centered social and economic life in addition to demographic control. Under a constitutionally endorsed policy of strict birth control, favorable economic opportunities coexisted with the problem of familial labor shortages. Recent reform policies have led to a more relaxed FP environment. The Chinese state is in a dilemma between the need to allow peasant's autonomy in determining the familial work situation and the population pressure on the limited cultivated land. The Chinese experience of rural reform is examined in terms of the complex relationship between population change and economic development which are influenced by the production and welfare activities of the peasant family. The theoretical argument is that a family reliant strategy of economic reform undercuts the effectiveness of population control programs. The ultimate solution lies with sustained industrialization with high labor absorption. National trends and the Dahe People's Commune/Township experience are analyzed. Discussion is focused on the dilemma of FP and family production, old and new evidence of family size and economic performance, welfare outcome of family size, the role of the state in altering the demographic balance sheet, and the strategic response of peasant families to bring families of old designs back and urban migration and proletarianization. It is concluded that there is growing understanding that the causal relationships between population growth and economic development do not clearly support universal population control. Human social organization, not the man/land ratio, shapes the consequences of population growth. The implications for the Malthusian vs. Marxian debate for developing countries are that the resources/population imbalance needs to consider more carefully the human organizational factors. Mao's notions that a revolutionary transformation of the social organization of production in China would resolve overpopulation have since been rectified by opposing ideological positions: changing the basic mode of production through institutional decollectivization and checking population growth with the 1-child policy. This dilemma in rural areas translates to greater productivity and diversification with Chinese families having abundant adult labor and secured by the number of sons. It is difficult to substantiate the benefit of small families for peasants theoretically. Political rewards have been curtailed by economic declines. The peasant family has adapted by reconstituting old family forms and kin networks and by out-migration and nonagricultural employment.     

Feeding a growing world

Technology allows for the increased production of food to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population. However, in poor countries, technology may not be economically or environmentally affordable. The balance between food supply and population growth will depend upon government's ability to design and enforce policies and programs to deal with increased population, poverty, and environmental degradation. Approaches will be specific to a country's needs. In Bangladesh, food aid will be needed. In Zaire, political reform will be required. Many countries will have to shift from investments in war to social development. Three kinds of countries will experience difficulty in feeding their populations: 1) countries with little or no reserves of fertile land or water and insufficient funds for food imports; 2) countries that have sufficient reserves of land and water but suffer from government policy failures and neglect of agriculture; and countries with political instability and civil war, which invariably are linked with famine and drought. The future prospects will be a slow increase in dietary intake in most regions, fluctuations in food availability and prices, increased crop yields and land under cultivation, and slower expansion of agricultural lands due to environmental constraints. Pessimists have predicted increased environmental costs of food production due to soil erosion, pesticide contamination of soil and water, loss of species, and fertilizer run-off. Optimists have argued that new lands can be brought under cultivation and investments in agricultural research can help to increase food productivity. As Population Council vice president in the Research Division, John Bongaarts has reiterated that a positive outcome is more likely if population growth can be stopped.     

杨凌农业高新技术产业示范区农业剩余劳动力合理转移与利用的创新模式

本文根据杨凌示范区的新特点, 给出了示范区农业剩余劳动力合理转移与利用的新模式： １农业内部对剩余劳动力利用; ２发展第三产业吸纳剩余劳动力; ３示范区城市化建设。