基于贝叶斯面板平滑转换模型的房价阈值效应研究

针对经济变量之间普遍存在的非线性关系,导致线性模型拟合失效的问题,构建面板数据平滑转换模型,刻画变量之间关系的非对称性。采用贝叶斯方法进行模型的参数估计,避免非线性最小二乘算法难以收敛,参数估计不确定。通过分析模型结构,选择参数先验分布,设计相应的Metropolis-Hasting-Gibbs混合抽样算法,据此估计模型参数;在此基础上,利用省域面板数据分析房价阈值效应问题。研究结果表明:参数的动态迭代轨迹收敛,MH-Gibbs混合抽样算法能够准确地估计模型各参数,解决了非线性最小二乘无法收敛的问题,证明了贝叶斯面板数据平滑转换模型的有效性;同时也验证了房价波动的阈值效应以及房价与城市化、城乡收入差距之间的非线性关系。     

Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods

This paper discusses twostochastic time-series models developed recently for projecting age-specific fertility rates: the CARIMA model and the APC-ARIMA model. The forecasting performance of both models is examined using Dutch data. Alternatively, adeterministic time-series model is presented in which the age pattern of changes in the age-specific fertility rates between successive years is described by a cubic spline function. The model is capable of describing widely varying patterns. The model is applied to age-specific fertility rates for four countries: the Netherlands, England and Wales, Sweden and Australia.Cet article traite de deux modèles stochastiques qui utilisent des séries chronologiques: le modèle CARIMA et le modèle APC-ARIMA qui ont été développés récemment pour projeter les taux de fécondité par âge. La qualité des projections réalisées avec ces deux modèles est testée sur des données hollandaises. Simultanément, un modèle déterministe est présenté dans lequel les changements des taux de fécondité par âge entre années successives sont décrits par une fonction du troisième degré. Ce modèle est capable de décrire des situations qui varient dans un très large domaine. Il est appliqué aux taux de fécondité par âge de quatre pays: la Hollande, l'Angleterre et le Pays de Galles, la Suède et l'Australie.

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The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics.     

可靠性中的关联度分析法

在可靠性工程中,分布的拟合检验和点估计值的评价是经常遇到的两个问题。一般的处理方法是数理统计方法。本文利用灰色系统理论中的关联度概念,从几何处理的角度,提出一种新方法。该方法简单、使用方便、容易掌握,不需概率紙和特殊设计的统计量临界值表,适于对精确度要求不太高的场合。     

Partner Choice and the Transition to Parenthood for Second-Generation Women of Turkish and Moroccan Origin in Belgium

Studies on fertility among second-generation migrant women across Europe have mainly treated the second generation as a rather homogenous group, not linking and distinguishing fertility patterns by type of partner. This study investigates how and to what extent the origin and generation of the partner (endogamous or exogamous as well as diversity in endogamy) of Turkish and Moroccan second-generation women in Belgium is related to first-birth rates. We distinguish three types of partnerships: those in an endogamous union with a first-generation partner, those in an endogamous union with a second-generation partner, and those in an exogenous union where the partner is of native Belgian origin. We use linked Census-Register data for the period 2001–2006. Applying event history models, our findings reveal clear differences between the endogamous and exogamous unions with respect to the timing of first births. Second-generation women of both origin groups have the lowest parenthood rates when the partner is of native Belgian origin. However, no variation is found within endogamous unions. For endogamous unions with a first-generation partner, the parenthood rates are approximately the same (and not higher, as was expected) compared to when the partner is also of second generation.     

Quantifying Economic Dependency

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.     

试析近代早期英国对乞讨的限制

乞讨是人类历史上长期存在的社会现象,在近代早期,英国对乞讨进行了区别对待,分别给以惩罚和救济。此时,英国乞讨限制呈现出三管齐下的基本特征：精英献策、政府立法和城镇执行。英国对乞讨限制的这一特征使它有力地遏制住乞讨这一社会痼疾,从而保证了英国顺利地实现向近代社会的转型。     

Induced Abortion in Russia: Recent Trends and Underreporting in Surveys

The abortion level in Russia has been exceptionally high for several decades, yet during the last ten years it experienced a considerable decline. There is a concern that this favourable change could be largely due to a deterioration of statistical registration in the 1990s. In this paper, we use three reproductive and health surveys for a crosscheck with provider statistics, and analyse patterns and determinants of abortions. Each survey includes questions about the history of abortions. Our data indicate that survey estimates of the crude, total, and age-specific abortion rates emerge to be very close to respective figures from provider statistics for about two years preceding each survey. Survey estimates progressively deviate downwards from provider statistics when moving further back in time due to growing under reporting. This finding suggests that provider statistics on abortion in Russia are a true reflection of the situation they monitor, that the observed declining trend in abortion is a real one, and that analyses of survey data on abortions are justified for up to two years preceding the survey. Logistic regression using the data from the survey carried out in 2000 for the period of 1998-2000 reveals that the odds for an induced abortion are lower in case of a higher educational degree, that the odds increase with the number of children and decrease with the use of more reliable contraceptive methods, and that married women are more likely to have an abortion than never-married ones but less likely when compared to cohabiting women.     

司法制度资源与地方诉讼案件的形成

从量化历史角度开展中西诉讼比较,需注意诉讼率数字背后的陷阱,考虑到双方案件具体内涵的不同,我们更应探讨案件形成背后的司法制度根源。司法档案中的“案件”是司法制度运作中的人为制造之物,近代早期中国与英格兰不同的地方权力结构导致其司法制度资源配置的差异,由此对两国在立案时案件性质的严重程度、案件处理所需时间、当事人所需负担的诉讼费用,以及案件受理范围等方面产生了不同影响。归根结底,清代中国二元性地方权力结构使国家与地方社会相对隔膜,而英格兰的一元性地方权力结构使得国家的权力末梢深入到乡村一级,由此导致了两国具有不同的案件形成过程。     

The timing of first birth

“The timing of first birth” is taken to mean the distribution of first births among a cohort of women. (1) How large is the final proportion of women who have at least one birth and (2) what is the distribution of women by age at first birth? “The percentage of non-fecund women” and “the age-specific risk for a fecund woman of remaining childless” are useful parameters in predicting final childlessness. These parameters are estimated. It is found that the risk of a fecund woman remaining childless is substantial even at the most common childbearing age. The effect of postponement of births on final childlessness is demonstrated and quantified. It is shown that the higher level of childlessness among women with long education can be explained by postponement of childbearing. The expression “later means fewer” is also true for first births. A method of predicting first birth rates, presented earlier by the author, is discussed and shown to give a good fit to Swedish data.     

物质事件的事态化研究

依据系统功能语法定义的六种过程类型和“过程函数”(过程=限定+事件),过程的核心构件就是事件,因而存在六种过程(物质和意识、言语和行为、存在和关系)就会存在六种事件(物理和心理、言语和行为、存在和关系)。在复合过程中,一种事件构成另一事件的事态,引起事态化现象。事态化的结果形成两种类型的实际事件使用角色,即过程事件和事态事件。研究过程,事件是焦点;研究事件,事件之间的事态化组合是焦点。本研究聚焦物质事件的事态组合,分析物质事件内部的分化和重组,并且采用英国国家语料库(BNC)作为语料来源,以BEGIN为例进行实证演示。希望借此更加深入地探究事件的功能语义研究。      

英语关系过程分类中的两个存疑

本文从韩礼德对英语关系过程的分析入手,探讨了英语关系过程分类中的两个存疑。英语关系过程分类应当参照关系过程小句中参与者之间的两种关系:逻辑关系和语义关系。根据两个参与者之间的逻辑关系,关系过程可以分为归属式和识别式两种模式;而根据语义关系,关系过程可以分为内包型、环境型和所有型三种类型。另外,内包型关系过程中两个参与者之间存在一种表示“属性或特征”的语义关系,它有别于环境型关系过程和所有型关系过程中出现的表示“环境”或“所有”的语义关系,不能相互混淆。两种模式和三种类型的英语关系过程可以相互作用,因而形成六小类关系过程。      

Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility

A multivariate ARIMA model is combined with a Gammacurve to predict confidence intervals for age-specificbirth rates by one-year age groups. The method isapplied to observed age-specific births in Norwaybetween 1900 and 1995, and predictive intervals arecomputed for each year up to 2050. The predictedtwo-thirds confidence intervals for Total Fertility(TF) around 2010 agree well with TF errors in oldpopulation forecasts made by Statistics Norway. Themethod gives useful predictions for age-specificfertility up to the years 2020–2030. For later years,the intervals become too wide. Methods which do nottake account of estimation errors in the ARIMA modelcoefficients underestimate the uncertainty for futureTF values. The findings suggest that the marginbetween high and low fertility variants in officialpopulation forecasts for many Western countries aretoo narrow.     

大学—校友关系的关系性研究

相较于大学校友问题的传统研究路径,大学—校友关系应是一个新视角。但要厘清大学—校友关系的内在机理和运行规律,还需转向这一关系的关系性研究。大学—校友关系首先表现为一种既定的先赋性关系即学缘关系,其次表现为一种两类主体（制度主体和生活主体）互动的结构性关系,同时还表现为一种需要纳入实践操作层面的建构性关系。大学—校友关系的建构性关系可表述为：有某种关系认知的行动者（如校友、教师、大学生等）依托某一关系结构,在一定的关系情境中获取他们生存和发展所需资源的互动过程。把握这一关系性,对于当前高校全面认识校友问题、优化校友工作思路和方法具有重要启示意义。     

Declining first-marriage rates in England and Wales: A change in timing or a rejection of marriage?

During the 1970s, first-marriage rates in many Western European countries declined sharply. We use two different methods (devised by Ryder and by Le Bras and Roussel) to assess how far the changes in first-marriage rates in England and Wales arise from a shift to marrying at later ages or from a decline in the popularity of formal marriage. The two methods yield consistent results, and indicate that the majority of young people in England and Wales will continue to marry but that during the 1970s many were postponing marriage. The pattern of cohabitation and prevailing attitudes to marriage are compatible with such a finding. Recent marriage patterns in England and Wales are found to differ from those in France and Sweden.     

欧洲联盟多层治理的理论与实践

欧洲联盟的治理具有区别于传统主权国家治理模式和一般区域性经济政治组织运作的明显特征,即欧盟在不具备主权国家政治体系完全特征的同时体现了一种全方位的制度合作。欧盟的治理结构体现为权威来源的多样性、超国家性和多层性特征。欧盟政策过程明显体现为欧盟层次、国家层次和次国家层次三个层面的权威分配与互动。欧盟多层治理是由区域内发达国家群体构成的主权国家联合体在高度一体化背景下一种独具特色的制度创新,这种制度创新对后工业化国家的发展道路以及区域合作及一体化开辟了一个全新的途径。     

关系紧密度与关系能力对供应柔性的影响

本文研究了关系紧密度和关系能力对供应柔性的两个维度物流供应柔性和采购供应柔性的不同影响作用。通过对194家企业的实证研究,发现关系紧密度对于物流供应柔性和采购供应柔性的提升有积极的促进作用,而关系能力只对采购供应柔性有正向影响作用;与物流供应柔性没有显著的关系。最后讨论了本研究的理论和实践意义。     

精神分析情境的相互性——关系精神分析的临床观点

在精神分析运动史上,关于临床精神分析情境的相互性问题经历了一个从压制到强调的过程。古典精神分析几乎不承认精神分析情境的相互性,而其后的关系模型理论则越来越重视相互性在精神分析情境中的体现。在综合了各关系模型理论的基础上,关系精神分析认为相互性是精神分析情境的一个主要特征。但是,对相互性的强调并不否定自主性,实现相互性与自主性的辩证协调是分析的一个目标,相互性也不意味着对称性或相等性。     

Age-specific mortality and short-term changes in the standard of living: Sweden, 1751–1859

The response of mortality to short-term changes in real wages is analyzed here not just in its own right but more particularly as an indicator of long-term shifts in the general standard of living. It is hypothesized that the response would have been stronger the lower the standard of living. The relationship between age-specific mortality levels and real-wage series for Sweden 1751–1860 is analyzed using a distributed-lag model and spectral analysis. The results suggest a real shift in the material standard of living during the period.     

两类不同标记性的英语反义词

文献中经常提到层级性反义词和关系对立词的语义标记性。本文分析这种特性的两种状态：有标记性与无标记性,以及这种特性在这两类词中的体现,着重指出：语义标记是一个程度变量,在常态下,反义词的标记性大于关系对立词的标记程度。文中还就这种差别给出了功能上的解释。     

税收筹划中临界点的运用

临界点在税收筹划上的意义,源于现行税收制度中的各种差异。比如,起征点的规定、税率的差异、一般纳税人和小规模纳税人的区分以及税收优惠政策的限制条件等等,都可以形成税收筹划的临界点。