地方政府行为、投资冲动与宏观经济稳定

本文在澄清了地方政府行为对宏观经济稳定冲击的一般作用机制的基础上,建立一个3阶段序贯博弈模型,分析了地方政府行为对宏观经济稳定的冲击。分析表明,地方政府在财政利益和政治晋升的双重激励下,总是有利用违规优惠政策进行引资的强烈动机,从而引发企业投资冲动,导致投资过热,进而对宏观经济稳定产生巨大冲击。中央政府可以通过加大行政查处力度来有效遏制投资过热,但面临着力度不够则调控效果不佳,力度太大则经济“硬着陆”的两难困境。     

财政政策与宏观经济稳定:情势转变视角

本文利用马尔可夫情势转变向量自回归模型,考察了20世纪90年代以来,我国宏观经济运行与财政政策的情势转变特征、财政政策对宏观经济稳定的影响以及财政政策的非线性效应。分析表明,我国财政支出政策的相机抉择变化比较符合凯恩斯经济周期理论所强调的"逆势而动"的特点,且有助于实体经济稳定,但加剧了通货膨胀波动;税收政策的相机抉择变化不符合宏观经济运行需要,并在一定程度上加剧了实体经济波动,但有助于价格稳定。我国财政政策总体上具有显著的、持续时间较长的"凯恩斯效应"。     

浅谈国有投资公司

<正>在我国,国有投资公司是由国家单独出资设立,具有法人地位的以国有独资或国有控股公司为主要组织形式的公司制企业,是政府授权运营国有资产的投融资主体。国有投资公司作为国有经济布局和结构调整的"市场载体",发挥了引导投资、促进产业结构调整和国民经济合理布局的积极作用,并通过市场运作,来促进国有资本的优化配置和实现国有资产的保值增值。一、国有投资公司的主要职能     

企业融资行为具有经济周期性吗——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

由于存在金融摩擦,企业的债务融资和股权融资决策可能会随着经济周期而改变。截至目前尚没有一个公认的理论可以对企业融资的经济周期性,特别是股权融资的经济周期性做出肯定的理论预测。因此,有必要从实证的角度为符合中国特征的宏观不完全金融市场模型的构建提供一定的微观实证基础。出于这一目的,我们根据实际经济周期文献的习惯采用H-P滤波得到的实际GDP周期项作为宏观经济波动的度量,从面板数据分析和加总数据分析两个方面考察了中国A股上市公司债务融资和股权融资(不包含IPO)行为的经济周期性,得到基本一致的结论。整体样本的研究显示,债务融资量和股权融资量均呈现顺经济周期性(Pro-cyclical)。因为企业规模通常用来衡量金融摩擦的程度,我们接着考察了根据企业规模所决定的企业异质性对企业融资经济周期性的影响。研究发现,规模较大(事前融资约束较小)的企业债务融资具有较强的顺经济周期性,规模较小(事前融资约束较大)的企业债务融资量的周期性不明显(A-cyclical),规模对企业股权融资的经济周期性没有显著影响,控制企业层面或者宏观层面的其他变量对于结果没有影响。以上事实,对于构建符合中国实际的宏观金融摩擦模型具有重要的借鉴意义。     

加大河南固定资产投资力度的对策与建议

根据有关宏观经济理论,在总需求中,消费在一定时期内比较稳定而变化不大,除非收入有较大的增减;净出口在较长时期内占GDP的比重往往较低,发达阶段的出口导向型国家和地区除外;投资是引起国民产出变化的最重要因素而又多波动,这是由投资的性质和投资乘数作用及加速原理所决定的,所以,改变投资对经济增长的影响最有效.联系河南的实际,在拉动经济增长的三大动力消费、出口、投资中,净出口总额占GDP总量的比重很低,2001年为3.5%;最终消费占GDP的比重较大,且相对稳定,1995年占53.1%,2001年为55.2%,但分别低于全国同期平均水平4.4和4.8个百分点;投资对河南GDP增长的拉动作用显著,1998、1999、2000和2001年全省固定资产投资分别拉动GDP增长4.2、1.9、2.9和2.9个百分点,贡献率分别为48.3%、23.8%、30.9%和31.9%.总体看,河南属投资拉动型省份.     

中国经济周期研究:1954￣2004

本文从中国的基本国情——存在大量农村剩余劳动力出发,提出了分析我国经济周期性波动的基本理论框架:基于劳动力转移的真实经济周期理论。在此基础上,分别考察了1954￣1975年、1976￣2004年两个时间段经济周期波动的典型事实,并进行了计量检验。本文的主要结论是,尽管自1954年以来我国的GDP增长率与投资增长率就表现出显著的共同周期现象,但是,1976年以后的周期与以往存在着明显的不同:劳动力转移、投资增长和经济增长三者的相互作用成为推动我国经济周期性波动的基本经济机制,经济周期因而表现为高度同步的GDP周期、投资周期和劳动力转移周期。这种现象说明,宏观经济政策应该将稳定投资、加快体制改革作为基本的出发点。     

基于我国省域面板的财政政策产出稳定效应研究

为考察我国财政政策的产出稳定性效应,本文将财政政策区分为自动稳定器、周期性和外生相机抉择财政政策3个维度,并在探究各个财政政策维度产出稳定效应机制的基础上,利用1992~2011年期间我国省级政府层面面板数据进行实证度量。研究表明:我国财政自动稳定器的确发挥产出稳定性作用,但由于周期性和外生相机抉择财政政策发挥破坏稳定性作用以及财政货币政策协调失效,自动稳定器产出稳定效应收益递减且随时期推移非线性变化。因而,发挥财政政策的产出稳定效应,应着力改革和完善我国财政制度,实施规则式财政政策,压缩自由量裁式财政政策空间,增进财政货币政策协调。     

宏观经济背景下如何发挥市场调节的决定性作用

今年我国的宏观经济大体处于蓄势阶段,要实现较大幅度的增长仍有不小的压力。党的十八大三中全会中指出,要发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用。本文拟探讨在当前宏观背景下怎样更好地发挥市场在资源配置中的作用,实现宏观经济快速稳定、协调发展。     

通货膨胀、投资与经济增长--关于宏观调控背景的计量分析

通货膨胀一直以来都作为衡量一国宏观经济运行是否稳定和健康的重要指标。稳定的宏观经济环境有益于投资从而也有益于经济增长。因此宏观政策的制定者往往都密切关注通货膨胀率的高低。本文从通货膨胀与经济增长的理论关系入手,结合我国的实际数据围绕通货膨胀和投资、产出、过度货币供给等宏观经济变量进行了一系列的计量分析。本文通过协整检验得到,投资增长是产出增长的原因,却并不是通货膨胀率上升的原因。本文建立了通货膨胀率的ARMAX模型发现,通货膨胀率上升并不是中央银行扩大货币供给的结果。同时本文还进行了一系列的格兰杰因果检验,进一步显示,固定资产投资、固定资产投资增长率、外商直接投资、外商直接投资增长率和通货膨胀之间均不存在显著的因果关系。这些结论说明了,通货膨胀并不会抑制投资并损害长期经济增长。     

经济信息在宏观经济管理目标中的应用研究

宏观经济管理目标是宏观经济管理的出发点和归宿点。宏观经济管理目标一经确定,也就规定了宏观经济管理的努力方向,在很大程度上决定了宏观经济运行方向。利用经济信息是制定宏观经济管理目标的重要方法,通过经济信息对市场供求总体情况变化的分析,如对国民收入与人口增长、居民购买力趋势、生产资料和消费资料需求趋势等进行资料收集、加工来预测发展趋势,减少不确定因素,使制定的宏观经济管理目标科学合理、切实可行,从而对整个国民经济的发展发挥稳定作用、促进作用和保证作用。     

Inventory Models with Continuous and Poisson Demands and Discounted and Average Costs

We develop a new, unified approach to treating continuous‐time stochastic inventory problems with both the average and discounted cost criteria. The approach involves the development of an adjusted discounted cycle cost formula, which has an appealing intuitive interpretation. We show for the first time that an (s, S) policy is optimal in the case of demand having a compound Poisson component as well as a constant rate component. Our demand structure simultaneously generalizes the classical EOQ model and the inventory models with Poisson demand, and we indicate the reasons why this task has been a difficult one. We do not require the surplus cost function to be convex or quasi‐convex as has been assumed in the literature. Finally, we show that the optimal s is unique, but we do not know if optimal S is unique.     

Educational Landscapes and Urban Development. Contextual and Spatial Interfaces and Linkages

In the broad sociopolitical discussion on education quality within the last decade, it has become apparent that education is gaining importance for urban development, as well as space and the urban context are important dimensions of education. This becomes particularly evident in concepts for local educational landscapes (Ger. Bildungslandschaften). The young field of research on educational landscapes is currently lacking empirical research from spatial and planning sciences. In the paper, the current state of scientific research on educational landscapes in Germany and Europe and first insights to contextual and spatial interfaces and linkages between education and urban development in general are presented.     

CEO and Chairperson characteristics and firm performance

This paper focuses on the relationship between Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Chairperson characteristics and firm performance. Specifically, the study examines the association between the characteristics of the CEO and the Chairperson of the board and firm performance. Using a sample of S&P 500 firms, the evidence found suggests that demographic and experience-related characteristics may be associated with the market valuation and financial performance of the firm. In particular, the reported results indicate a positive relationship between the presence of female CEOs or Chairs and firm performance, thus suggesting that gender-based differences may affect the CEO’s/Chairperson’s success. Moreover, the findings concerning the age of the CEO or Chair are mixed, while their experience and quality appear positively related to firm performance. Interestingly, a CEO or Chairperson holding multiple board seats is negatively associated with firm performance, whereas CEO duality has a positive relationship with Tobin’s Q and the return on assets (ROA) of the firm.     

E-governance and Corruption-developments and Issues in Ethiopia

This paper reports the results of a survey of 400 respondents in Ethiopia about factors generating corruption and the potential of e-Governance to mitigate corruption. It is suggested that e-Governance can help not only in weeding out corruption but also in the establishment of sounder government citizen relationships in Ethiopia. While e-Governance cannot cure all the structural factors that breed corruption in the society, strategic implementation of e-Governance can help improve the critical variable in combating corruption-government citizen relationships. It is argued that while e-Governance initiatives can make important contributions to improving public services they can best do so by helping improve overall relationships between governments and citizens.

Career orientations and career success among research,and development and engineering professionals

Managing the careers of research, development and engineering (RD&E) professionals is important to the strategic use of RD&E in the economy. Appropriate mechanisms for motivating RD&E professionals will probably emerge as a critical success factor for organizations that want to compete in world markets. This study examines dimensions and levels of career orientation and their correlations with individual and work-related outcome variables among 78 RD&E professionals. The findings reveal a rich diversity of career orientation in RD&E professionals. The data strongly suggest that RD&E professionals are service, lifestyle and security oriented. However, they scored low on technical orientation and entrepreneurship. This paper suggests that the dual career ladder is not an effective device for managing RD&E professionals. Organizations must be careful to provide career paths that retain and motivate workers and, more importantly, find matches between organizational needs and individuals' needs, and restructure jobs accordingly. The authors offer suggestions for future research and identify implications for management.     

David and Goliath: causes and effects of coopetition between start-ups and corporates

Coopetition (collaboration between competitors) among young firms (i.e. start-ups) and larger, more established firms (i.e. corporates) may be beneficial for both partners as each party typically has something to offer that is missing in the other. Start-ups often develop innovative ideas, are flexible and agile, willing to take risks, and aspire to achieve high growth, but they tend to lack the required resources, capabilities, and knowledge due to their newness and smallness. Corporates have resources, routines, and experience that enable them to work efficiently but lack a certain innovation capability. Research has suggested that coopetition represents an opportunity for start-ups facing restrictions in resources, while corporates benefit from start-ups’ innovative ideas. However, it is yet unknown whether start-ups and corporates engage in coopetition with each other and, if so, how and why they do this. This study seeks to fill this void by exploring the motives of coopeting start-ups and corporates, how they manage their coopetitive relationship, and what implications occur including potential benefits and risks. We present a multiple case study based on qualitative data collected through 70 interviews with Austrian-based start-ups and corporates representing 35 coopetitive partnerships. Discussing the findings based on our data, we propose relationships concerning coopetition and its role to enlarge resource- and technology-bases as well as its role in the development of dynamic capabilities.     

Chronic stress and chronic disease in life and work: Conceptual and methodological issues

This paper argues that the lack of strong prospective evidence linking occupational and social stress to chronic disease stems from the failure of research designs to attend sufficiently to the aetiological chronicity of such diseases. Studies of both supposedly acute stress (life events) and chronic stress in life or work must increasingly be designed to distinguish between stress which is sustained or chronic over a period of yean or even decades, and hence capable of causing a serious chronic disease, and brief or transient stress, which may produce transient or brief psychological or physiological disturbances but cannot generate major chronic disease. Prospective studies are needed which collect measures of both stress and health or disease at multiple points over an extended period of time. Measures of stress should focus more on affect (for example, feelings of pressure and tension) than on cognition (for example feelings of satisfaction). Limited existing evidence is consistent with these ideals.