Reliability estimation in stress–strength models: an MCMC approach

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the stress–strength parameter R=P(Y<X) when X and Y are independent and both are modified Weibull distributions with the common two shape parameters but different scale parameters. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method is used for posterior inference of the reliability of the stress–strength model. The maximum-likelihood estimator of R and its asymptotic distribution are obtained. Based on the asymptotic distribution, the confidence interval of R can be obtained using the delta method. We also propose a bootstrap confidence interval of R. The Bayesian estimators with balanced loss function, using informative and non-informative priors, are derived. Different methods and the corresponding confidence intervals are compared using Monte Carlo simulations.     

Adjusted empirical likelihood inference for additive hazards regression

ABSTRACT

This article develops an adjusted empirical likelihood (EL) method for the additive hazards model. The adjusted EL ratio is shown to have a central chi-squared limiting distribution under the null hypothesis. We also evaluate its asymptotic distribution as a non central chi-squared distribution under the local alternatives of order n^{? 1/2}, deriving the expression for the asymptotic power function. Simulation studies and a real example are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method. Compared with the normal approximation-based method, the proposed method tends to have more larger empirical power and smaller confidence regions with comparable coverage probabilities.     

Inference on P(Y < X) in Bivariate Rayleigh Distribution

This paper deals with the estimation of reliability R = P(Y < X) when X is a random strength of a component subjected to a random stress Y, and (X, Y) follows a bivariate Rayleigh distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator of R and its asymptotic distribution are obtained. An asymptotic confidence interval of R is constructed using the asymptotic distribution. Also, two confidence intervals are proposed based on Bootstrap method and a computational approach. Testing of the reliability based on asymptotic distribution of R is discussed. Simulation study to investigate performance of the confidence intervals and tests has been carried out. Also, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed approaches.     

A note on the asymptotic distribution of the process capability index C pmk

Process capability indices have been widely used to evaluate the process performance to the continuous improvement of quality and productivity. The distribution of the estimator of the process capability index C _pmk is very complicated and the asymptotic distribution is proposed by Chen and Hsu [The asymptotic distribution of the processes capability index C _pmk , Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 24(5) (1995), pp. 1279–1291]. However, we found a critical error for the asymptotic distribution when the population mean is not equal to the midpoint of the specification limits. In this paper, a correct version of the asymptotic distribution is given. An asymptotic confidence interval of C _pmk by using the correct version of asymptotic distribution is proposed and the lower bound can be used to test if the process is capable. A simulation study of the coverage probability of the proposed confidence interval is shown to be satisfactory. The relation of six sigma technique and the index C _pmk is also discussed in this paper. An asymptotic testing procedure to determine if a process is capable based on the index of C _pmk is also given in this paper.     

On the error term in bahadur's representation of an order statistic

Bahadur (1966) presented a representation of an order statistic, giving its asymptotic distribution and the rate of convergence, under weak assumptions on the density function of the parent distribution. In this paper we consider the mean(squared) deviation of the error term in Bahadur’s approximation of the q th sample quantile (q_n ). We derive a uniform bound on the mean (squared) deviation of q_n , not depending on the value of q. An application of the given result provides the corresponding result for a kernel type estimator of the q th quantile.     

Inference of R=P[X<Y] for generalized logistic distribution

This paper deals with the estimation of R=P[X<Y] when X and Y come from two independent generalized logistic distributions with different parameters. The maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) and its asymptotic distribution are proposed. The asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval of R. Assuming that the common scale parameter is known, the MLE, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation and confidence interval of R are obtained. The MLE of R, asymptotic distribution of R in the general case, is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods. Analysis of a real data set has also been presented for illustrative purposes.     

A simple approximation relation between the symmetric generalized logistic and the students t distributions

In this paper, we obtain a new approximation of the Student's t distribution by using the symmetric generalized logistic (SGL) distribution function. The error of this approximation is shown to be 0(1/n² )where nis the degrees of freedom of thetdistribution. In comparison to similar approximations by George and Ojo and George et al. (1986), this new approximation is much simpler and more accurate. It is also shown that under some conditions, the tdistribution is a good approximation of the SGL distribution. Therefore, the complicated expressions for the cumulants and moments of the SGL can be approximated by those of the t, distribution. Finally, numerical results are given.     

Estimation of P{X < Y} for geometric—exponential model based on complete and censored samples

This article deals with the estimation of R = P{X < Y}, where X and Y are independent random variables from geometric and exponential distribution, respectively. For complete samples, the MLE of R, its asymptotic distribution, and confidence interval based on it are obtained. The procedure for deriving bootstrap-p confidence interval is presented. The UMVUE of R and UMVUE of its variance are derived. The Bayes estimator of R is investigated and its Lindley's approximation is obtained. A simulation study is performed in order to compare these estimators. Finally, all point estimators for right censored sample from the exponential distribution, are obtained.     

Approximate Bayesianity of Frequentist Confidence Intervals for a Binomial Proportion

The well-known Wilson and Agresti–Coull confidence intervals for a binomial proportion p are centered around a Bayesian estimator. Using this as a starting point, similarities between frequentist confidence intervals for proportions and Bayesian credible intervals based on low-informative priors are studied using asymptotic expansions. A Bayesian motivation for a large class of frequentist confidence intervals is provided. It is shown that the likelihood ratio interval for p approximates a Bayesian credible interval based on Kerman’s neutral noninformative conjugate prior up to O(n^{? 1}) in the confidence bounds. For the significance level α ? 0.317, the Bayesian interval based on the Jeffreys’ prior is then shown to be a compromise between the likelihood ratio and Wilson intervals. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

THE EFFECTS OF CORRELATION AMONG OBSERVATIONS ON THE ACCURACY OF APPROXIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE MEAN BY ITS ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION1

In this paper, we investigate the effects of correlation among observations on the accuracy of approximating the distribution of sample mean by its asymptotic distribution. The accuracy is investigated by the Berry-Esseen bound (BEB), which gives an upper bound on the error of approximation of the distribution function of the sample mean from its asymptotic distribution for independent observations. For a given sample size (n₀) the BEB is obtained when the observations are independent. Let this be BEB. We then find the sample size (n_*) required to have BEB below BEB₀, when the observations are dependent. Comparison of n_* with n₀ reveals the effects of correlation among observations on the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution as an approximation. It is shown that the effects of correlation among observations are not appreciable if the correlation is moderate to small but it can be severe for extreme correlations.     

On the LBI criterion for the multivariate one-way random effects model under non-normality

The asymptotic null distribution of the locally best invariant (LBI) test criterion for testing the random effect in the one-way multivariable analysis of variance model is derived under normality and non-normality. The error of the approximation is characterized as O(1/n). The non-null asymptotic distribution is also discussed. In addition to providing a way of obtaining percentage points and p-values, the results of this paper are useful in assessing the robustness of the LBI criterion. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the accuracy of the approximation.     

Testing symmetry based on empirical likelihood

In this paper, we propose a general kth correlation coefficient between the density function and distribution function of a continuous variable as a measure of symmetry and asymmetry. We first propose a root-n moment-based estimator of the kth correlation coefficient and present its asymptotic results. Next, we consider statistical inference of the kth correlation coefficient by using the empirical likelihood (EL) method. The EL statistic is shown to be asymptotically a standard chi-squared distribution. Last, we propose a residual-based estimator of the kth correlation coefficient for a parametric regression model to test whether the density function of the true model error is symmetric or not. We present the asymptotic results of the residual-based kth correlation coefficient estimator and also construct its EL-based confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed estimators, and we also use our proposed estimators to analyze the air quality dataset.     

Asymptotic Properties of Random Weighted Empirical Distribution Function

This article studies the asymptotic properties of the random weighted empirical distribution function of independent random variables. Suppose X₁, X₂, ???, X_n is a sequence of independent random variables, and this sequence is not required to be identically distributed. Denote the empirical distribution function of the sequence by F_n(x). Based on the random weighting method and F_n(x), the random weighted empirical distribution function H_n(x) is constructed and the asymptotic properties of H_n are discussed. Under weak conditions, the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem and the central limit theorem for the random weighted empirical distribution function are obtained. The obtained results have also been applied to study the distribution functions of random errors of multiple sensors.     

Further Results on the Limiting Distribution of GMM Sample Moment Conditions

In this article, we examine the limiting behavior of generalized method of moments (GMM) sample moment conditions and point out an important discontinuity that arises in their asymptotic distribution. We show that the part of the scaled sample moment conditions that gives rise to degeneracy in the asymptotic normal distribution is T-consistent and has a nonstandard limiting distribution. We derive the appropriate asymptotic (weighted chi-squared) distribution when this degeneracy occurs and show how to conduct asymptotically valid statistical inference. We also propose a new rank test that provides guidance on which (standard or nonstandard) asymptotic framework should be used for inference. The finite-sample properties of the proposed asymptotic approximation are demonstrated using simulated data from some popular asset pricing models.     

Inferences on Stress-Strength Reliability from Lindley Distributions

This article deals with the estimation of the stress-strength parameter R = P(Y < X) when X and Y are independent Lindley random variables with different shape parameters. The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator has explicit expression, however, its exact or asymptotic distribution is very difficult to obtain. The maximum likelihood estimator of the unknown parameter can also be obtained in explicit form. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator and it can be used to construct confidence interval of R. Different parametric bootstrap confidence intervals are also proposed. Bayes estimator and the associated credible interval based on independent gamma priors on the unknown parameters are obtained using Monte Carlo methods. Different methods are compared using simulations and one data analysis has been performed for illustrative purposes.     

Confidence intervals following Box-Cox transformation

What is the interpretation of a confidence interval following estimation of a Box-Cox transformation parameter λ? Several authors have argued that confidence intervals for linear model parameters ψ can be constructed as if λ. were known in advance, rather than estimated, provided the estimand is interpreted conditionally given $\hat \lambda$. If the estimand is defined as $\psi \left( {\hat \lambda } \right)$, a function of the estimated transformation, can the nominal confidence level be regarded as a conditional coverage probability given $\hat \lambda$, where the interval is random and the estimand is fixed? Or should it be regarded as an unconditional probability, where both the interval and the estimand are random? This article investigates these questions via large-n approximations, small- σ approximations, and simulations. It is shown that, when model assumptions are satisfied and n is large, the nominal confidence level closely approximates the conditional coverage probability. When n is small, this conditional approximation is still good for regression models with small error variance. The conditional approximation can be poor for regression models with moderate error variance and single-factor ANOVA models with small to moderate error variance. In these situations the nominal confidence level still provides a good approximation for the unconditional coverage probability. This suggests that, while the estimand may be interpreted conditionally, the confidence level should sometimes be interpreted unconditionally.     

A NEW CALIBRATION METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD-BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE TAIL INDEX

Empirical likelihood has attracted much attention in the literature as a nonparametric method. A recent paper by Lu & Peng (2002) [Likelihood based confidence intervals for the tail index. Extremes 5, 337–352] applied this method to construct a confidence interval for the tail index of a heavy‐tailed distribution. It turns out that the empirical likelihood method, as well as other likelihood‐based methods, performs better than the normal approximation method in terms of coverage probability. However, when the sample size is small, the confidence interval computed using the χ² approximation has a serious undercoverage problem. Motivated by Tsao (2004) [A new method of calibration for the empirical loglikelihood ratio. Statist. Probab. Lett. 68, 305–314], this paper proposes a new method of calibration, which corrects the undercoverage problem.     

An approximation of the distribution function of the LIML identifiability test statistic using the method of moments

This paper contains an application of the asymptotic expansion of a pFp() function to a problem encountered in econometrics. In particular we consider an approximation of the distribution function of the limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) identifiability test statistic using the method of moments. An expression for the Sth order asymptotic approximation of the moments of the LIML identifiability test statistic is derived and tabulated. The exact distribution function of the test statistic is approximated by a member of the class of F (variance ratio) distribution functions having the same first two integer moments. Some tabulations of the approximating distribution function are included.     

Confidence interval estimation for negative binomial group distribution

Negative binomial group distribution was proposed in the literature which was motivated by inverse sampling when considering group inspection: products are inspected group by group, and the number of non-conforming items of a group is recorded only until the inspection of the whole group is finished. The non-conforming probability p of the population is thus the parameter of interest. In this paper, the confidence interval construction for this parameter is investigated. The common normal approximation and exact method are applied. To overcome the drawbacks of these commonly used methods, a composite method that is based on the confidence intervals of the negative binomial distribution is proposed, which benefits from the relationship between negative binomial distribution and negative binomial group distribution. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the performances of our methods. A real data example is also presented to illustrate the application of our method.     

Inference of stress-strength for the Type-II generalized logistic distribution under progressively Type-II censored samples

This article studies the estimation of the reliability R = P[Y < X] when X and Y come from two independent generalized logistic distributions of Type-II with different parameters, based on progressively Type-II censored samples. When the common scale parameter is unknown, the maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic distribution are proposed. The asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval of R. Bayes estimator of R and the corresponding credible interval using the Gibbs sampling technique have been proposed too. Assuming that the common scale parameter is known, the maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation, and confidence interval of R are extracted. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods. Analysis of a real dataset is given for illustrative purposes. Finally, methods are extended for proportional hazard rate models.