Introduction

This is an expanded version of comments on the future of the demography of aging at an invited session of the 2008 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. In an introduction, John Haaga offers reasons for a revival of interest in population aging, including greater realization of plasticity in aging trajectories at both individual and societal levels. Linda Martin proposes that population scientists working in aging emulate those studying fertility and family planning in previous decades, learning from interventions (in this case, aimed at increasing retirement savings and reducing disability at older ages). Changes in family structure will increasingly affect new cohorts of the elderly, and Linda Waite speculates on the ways in which changes in the economy, medicine, and the legal environment could affect the social context for aging. Research on mortality at older ages is “alive and well” asserts James Vaupel, who sets out six large questions on mortality trends and differentials over time and across species. Lastly, Wolfgang Lutz expands the scope of projections, showing the considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of population aging in the developing world and the effects on future elderly of the increases in educational attainment in much of the world during the second half of the twentieth century.     

Interventions to Improve Late Life

This is an expanded version of comments on the future of the demography of aging at an invited session of the 2008 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. In an introduction, John Haaga offers reasons for a revival of interest in population aging, including greater realization of plasticity in aging trajectories at both individual and societal levels. Linda Martin proposes that population scientists working in aging emulate those studying fertility and family planning in previous decades, learning from interventions (in this case, aimed at increasing retirement savings and reducing disability at older ages). Changes in family structure will increasingly affect new cohorts of the elderly, and Linda Waite speculates on the ways in which changes in the economy, medicine, and the legal environment could affect the social context for aging. Research on mortality at older ages is “alive and well” asserts James Vaupel, who sets out six large questions on mortality trends and differentials over time and across species. Lastly, Wolfgang Lutz expands the scope of projections, showing the considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of population aging in the developing world and the effects on future elderly of the increases in educational attainment in much of the world during the second half of the twentieth century.     

Lively Questions for Demographers about Death at Older Ages

This is an expanded version of comments on the future of the demography of aging at an invited session of the 2008 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. In an introduction, John Haaga offers reasons for a revival of interest in population aging, including greater realization of plasticity in aging trajectories at both individual and societal levels. Linda Martin proposes that population scientists working in aging emulate those studying fertility and family planning in previous decades, learning from interventions (in this case, aimed at increasing retirement savings and reducing disability at older ages). Changes in family structure will increasingly affect new cohorts of the elderly, and Linda Waite speculates on the ways in which changes in the economy, medicine, and the legal environment could affect the social context for aging. Research on mortality at older ages is “alive and well” asserts James Vaupel, who sets out six large questions on mortality trends and differentials over time and across species. Lastly, Wolfgang Lutz expands the scope of projections, showing the considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of population aging in the developing world and the effects on future elderly of the increases in educational attainment in much of the world during the second half of the twentieth century.     

The Demography of Future Global Population Aging: Indicators,Uncertainty, and Educational Composition

This is an expanded version of comments on the future of the demography of aging at an invited session of the 2008 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. In an introduction, John Haaga offers reasons for a revival of interest in population aging, including greater realization of plasticity in aging trajectories at both individual and societal levels. Linda Martin proposes that population scientists working in aging emulate those studying fertility and family planning in previous decades, learning from interventions (in this case, aimed at increasing retirement savings and reducing disability at older ages). Changes in family structure will increasingly affect new cohorts of the elderly, and Linda Waite speculates on the ways in which changes in the economy, medicine, and the legal environment could affect the social context for aging. Research on mortality at older ages is “alive and well” asserts James Vaupel, who sets out six large questions on mortality trends and differentials over time and across species. Lastly, Wolfgang Lutz expands the scope of projections, showing the considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of population aging in the developing world and the effects on future elderly of the increases in educational attainment in much of the world during the second half of the twentieth century.     

家庭人口老化对碳排放的影响——基于家庭微观视角的实证研究

人口老龄化和全球气候变暖已经成为世界各国共同关注的议题。在我国人口老龄化日益加剧、环境问题也逐渐引起社会各界广泛关注的背景下,家庭层面人口老化与碳排放之间关系值得深入研究。文章从微观家庭结构出发,对家庭内部人口老化与碳排放之间关系进行理论分析,利用中国家庭金融调查数据库(CHFS)2013年的截面数据对人口老化与碳排放的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明家庭的老化特征与家庭碳排放之间呈现负相关,家庭的老化特征有助于减轻家庭的碳排放水平,老年人与年轻人共同生活的主干家庭更加"节能环保",这一结论与人们的一般感性认识有所不同。因此,应当鼓励年轻人与老年人共同居住,通过老年人的生活方式和消费习惯影响家庭的消费行为和消费结构,使家庭朝着节约环保型转变。本文的结论同时也表明人口老龄化产生的并非都是消极影响,其对社会的影响需要进行全面评估以积极应对老龄社会的到来。     

Aging in Japan: population policy implications

This article was prepared for the International Conference on Aging in the East and West in 1995. The focus is on trends in aging in Japan and demographic determinants and consequences. Findings are presented from a 1990 study conducted by the Institute of Population Problems on acceptance of alternative population policies aimed to slow population aging in Japan. Japan is the seventh most populous country in the world, and the current growth rate is around 0.3%. Declines in fertility and mortality have contributed to the low growth rate. Population aging accelerated over the decades. The present share of aged population is 14.1%. The aged population is expected to continue to increase from 14.9 million in 1990 to 32.7 million in 2020 (25.8% in 2025). Decreases in the aged population are not expected until after the mid-2040s. The proportion of very old (ages 75 years and older) will dramatically increase to 14.5% in 2025. The primary demographic determinant of population aging and fertility decline is identified as the higher proportion of never-married and the higher age at marriage. One of the consequences of population aging is the increase in the age dependency ratios and the aged-child ratios. The proportion of intergenerationally extended households declined over time, but the pace of decline has slowed recently. The proportion of aged in one person or couple only households has risen but not to the same extent as the West. The majority of older old still live with a married child. Logistic analysis of 1985 survey data reveal that the custom of the elderly living with the eldest child remains. The 1985 survey also revealed much indecision about a pronatalist policy or a fertility policy. Logistic analysis of 1990 public opinion survey data shows acceptance of immigration as a policy alternative to slowing population aging. Acceptance varied by socioeconomic, demographic, and regional factors. A pronatalist policy received stronger acceptance. However, reference is made to Kojima's literature review, which suggests that indirect policies on fertility and a comprehensive family policy would be more effective in raising fertility than a population policy.     

Life Potential as a Basic Demographic Indicator

This paper proposes an indicator that integrates life expectancy with the demographic structure of the population for a given society. By doing this, we have a simple indicator of mortality and aging combined, which could be very useful for developed societies. As is widely known, life expectancy at birth is independent of the demographic structure of the population, and therefore is adequate for measuring overall mortality. However, it neglects to take into account the fact that as life expectancy increases society ages, and so looking at life expectancy alone can produce an overly optimistic view of the development process, especially if we pay attention to future sustainability. Aging can in fact affect quality of life and sustainability in the long run. The indicators for aging are usually very crude, such as providing information on the share of the population who are 65 and over. We propose a simple indicator that integrates life expectancy at different ages, not only at birth, with the demographic structure of the population at a given point in time. The indicator has an intuitive interpretation in terms of the life potential, or biological capital, of society; and given that it is a weighted average, its changes can be easily decomposed into reductions in mortality (gains in life expectancy) and aging for different age intervals.     

Demographic transition and population aging in Korea

"This paper describes the process of population aging in conjunction with the demographic transition in [South Korea]. Korea has recently experienced rapid decreases of both mortality and fertility, which have brought about the rapid process of population aging. The speed of...population aging in Korea is projected as one of the fastest in the world. Population aging brings about changing patterns of family composition, especially new trends of living arrangements of the elderly. Since the process of population aging [began] in Korea, the proportion of [those] living alone and [of those] living with spouse only have significantly increased."     

老年人生活满意度影响因素研究

随着我国人口老龄化程度的不断加深,对老年人生活满意度影响因素进行研究非常必要。本文利用在山东的调查数据对影响老年人生活满意度的个人及家庭因素进行了分析,结果发现老年人健康状况、家庭经济条件、老年人在家庭中的经济地位和儿子对老人的经济支持对老年人的生活满意度影响显著。     

Changes in the family status of elderly women in Korea

As a result of sharp declines in fertility and mortality, the aging of the Korean population has proceeded rapidly and is likely to continue in full force for some time. In societies such as Korea, where families traditionally have been the only efficient source of support for the elderly, an aging population poses a threat because families have fewer descendants available to care for increasing numbers of surviving elderly persons. The exact magnitude of the reduction in the supply of kin depends on details of the demographic trends and cannot be evaluated a priori. In this paper we use family-status life tables to assess the effects of changes in demographic processes on the family status of elderly women and to project trends in elderly women's family status.     

Toward sustainable development: Implications for population aging and the wellbeing of elderly women in developing countries

Attaining sustainable development has significant implications for population age structure, family structure and the wellbeing of elderly women. If one of the primary goals of sustainable development is reducing fertility to attain a population growth rate which can be supported by the Earth's resources, then working toward sustainable development will lead to an aging population. This demographic change coupled with other impacts of working toward sustainable development could significantly affect the status and wellbeing of elderly women. Drawing on examples primarily from the Asian setting, this paper will examine population aging and what this demographic change may mean for elderly women in developing areas.     

Population aging raises questions for policymakers

This issue of Asia-Pacific Population and Policy examines the size of the elderly population in Asia and projections for the next 50 years. It discusses some of the characteristics of Asia's elderly population. Information is based on a study of population momentum and population aging at the East-West Center prepared by the UN for the 32 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia with populations of 150,000 or more. Demographic analysis revealed that the population aged 65 and above are projected to increase during 2000-50 by about 3% per year; of all Asians aged 55 and older, roughly one-half are now between the ages of 55 and 64, about one-third are between 65 and 74, and almost one-sixth are 75 and above. In most countries of Asia, older women are outnumbered by older men. Among the population aged 55 and above, there are about 90 men for every 100 women and among those aged 75 and above, there are only about 70 men for every 100 women. This analysis of demographic data suggests that the elderly population will expand dramatically in Asia over the next 50 years. This changing situation poses a challenge for policy makers in the provision of personal care and financial support for Asia's growing elderly population.     

America's elderly

The older population in the US has grown twice as fast as the rest of the population in the last 20 years. This growth is expected to accelerate early in the next century as the large baby boom cohorts move through middle age and become elderly. Today, about 1 in 8 Americans is 65 years of age or older. By 2030, 1 out of every 4 persons will be in older person. Substantial improvements in life expectancy at all ages, particularly at extreme old age, mean that not only will there be a greater proportion of elderly in the population, but the more will be the "oldest-old," over 85. By 2050, they will be more than 1/4 of the population. As people live longer, many are active and healthy well past retirement. However, many individuals living into their 80s have to cope with chronic disabilities affecting their capacity to perform day-to-day activities. Modern medicine has made great inroads against mortality from such illnesses as heart disease and stroke, but has not eliminated all the effects of these diseases. As the population ages, the issues of health care funding and availability, particularly long-term care, increase in importance. Contrary to widespread belief, the elderly are not abandoned by their families to nursing home care. The vast majority--95%--live in the community. Those needing assistance generally receive help from family and friends. This has created a tremendous demand for federal subsidies to support community-based long-term care services. 1/4 of the federal budget is now spent on the elderly--$270 billion in 1986. Medicaid and Medicare are among the government's success stories, but these programs are threatened by their very success. Economists estimate that government expenditures are 3 times greater for the elderly than for children, raising the issue of "intergenerational equity"--how to balance the amount of care society provides to those who have already contributed with what is provided to those who will contribute in the future. The view that the young and old simply compete for fixed resources is misleading. It ignores the interdependence among generations, and the burdens and benefits of intergenerational transfers at all stages of the life course.     

城市老年人心理和精神文化生活状况的调查分析——以江苏省为例

江苏为全国较早进入老龄化的省份之一,2009年末全省60岁及以上老年人口的比重已达17%。随着工业化、城市化和老龄化进程的加快,人口老龄化的重心将由农村转入城市。2009年江苏的调查数据表明,城市老年人心理状况及精神生活现状总体上较好,但与经济社会的快速发展、老年人的要求、和谐社会的构建和健康老龄化的推进还不相适应。要强化对老年人精神赡养和亲情关爱重要性的认识,采取多种措施,进一步提升老年人精神文化生活和心理健康水平。     

Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures

Official Medicare projections forecast that the elderly population will be less healthy and more costly over the next century. This prediction stems from the use of age as an indicator of health status: increases in longevity are assumed to increase demand for health care as individuals survive to older and higher-use ages. In this paper I suggest an alternative approach, in which time until death replaces age as the demographic indicator of health status. Increases in longevity are assumed to postpone the higher Medicare use and costs associated with the final decade of life. I contrast the two approaches, using mortality forecasts consistent with recent projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration. The time-until-death method yields significantly lower-cost forecasts. The hypothetical cost savings from improved health care small, however, relative to the size of the Medicare solvency problem caused by population aging.     

上海市人口老龄化：现状、影响及对策思考

人口老龄化已成为当今世界各国经济发展过程面临的共同性话题,就上海而言．未来上海市人口老龄化带来的影响已逐渐凸显,人口老龄化带来的养老金匮乏,劳动力不足以及社区为老服务发展滞后的矛盾已开始成为制约上海市经济发展的瓶颈,老龄化带来的影响将在未来很长一段时间内长期存在．缓解人口老龄化带来的影响以及寻求可行性办法解决老龄化人口的赡养问题已成为政府和社会必须要解决的问题。     

Aging in America: Limits to life span and elderly care options

Expanding longevity among the elderly and fertility decline are contributing to an aging US population. The number of persons 65 years or older is projected to double from about 32 million in 1990 to 66 million by 2030; the elderly proportion is expected to increase from 13 to 22 percent over the same period. Chronic illness and functional disability afflicts a significant proportion of older persons. An estimated 80–85 percent of people over age 65 have at least one chronic illness, and nearly one-half of older people report that chronic illness limits their activity to some degree. Altogether, about one-third of the population over 65 may need some kind of medical or social assistance. This paper discusses the three primary modes of care available to older persons: (1) the informal network of the family, (2) the more formal arrangements of home and community care, and (3) the institutionalized care of nursing homes. Of particular policy interest are the questions: Who provides the care? What type of care is available? Who receives the care? How much does each type of care cost? and Who pays? The current patterns and costs especially of long-term care provide a framework for planning future options. A discussion of research and policy recommendations concludes the paper.     

健康投资对人口老龄化的影响分析——基于人口均衡发展的视角

健康投入的快速增长将对人口老龄化发展产生重要影响。基于人口均衡发展的视角,研究发现,健康投入对老龄化的影响作用不仅仅体现在老年人口数量方面,还体现于老年人口的结构,诸如年龄、性别、城乡状况等方面,进而会使未来的老龄化社会出现规模老龄化、高龄老龄化、性别失衡老龄化以及农村健康不安全老龄化等新的特征,我国老龄化问题亦将由数量压迫型向数量增长和结构失衡并存型转变。而对老年人口实施健康和人力资源管理,推进城乡健康公平则是应对未来老龄化问题的重要举措。     

中国步入人口老龄化社会的经济学思考

按国际划分标准,一个国家如果60岁以上的老年人或65岁以上的老年人在总人口中的比例如果分别超过了10%或7%的话,即可看作达到了人口老龄化。中国的人口老龄化的势头正在引起全世界关注。当21世纪钟声敲响的时候,我国已经进入人口老龄型国家。目前我国老年人口有1.3亿,占世界老年人口的五分之一,并且继续以年均3.2%的速度递增。预计到2010年,我国的老年人口将达到2.3亿。到2040年,我国老年人口将达到4亿,占总人口的1/4。发展老年产业是关乎构建和谐社会、维系社会安定以及弘扬中华民族优良传统的大事业,迫在眉睫。     

Gender and Aging in the Developing World: Where Are the Men?

In recent years, both population aging and gender issues have gained prominence in international forums concerned with population. It is frequently asserted or implied that older women are universally more vulnerable to social, economic, and health disadvantages than older men. The most significant manifestation of this exclusive concern with women when considering gender and aging is the Plan of Action adopted by the Second World Assembly on Aging in 2002. The assumed relative disadvantage of elderly women is commonly attributed to gender differences in earlier life experiences. But are older women truly disadvantaged globally with respect to all or most essential aspects of well‐being? The authors provide empirical evidence that clearly shows that older women are not invariably disadvantaged vis‐à‐vis men. In particular, they call into question the wisdom and equity of a virtually exclusive emphasis on the needs of women when incorporating gender concerns into policies and programs related to aging. A more balanced perspective that recognizes gender as a potential, but not necessarily central, marker of vulnerability for various aspects of well‐being in specific settings and times, and that allows for male as well as female disadvantage, would serve the current and future elderly generations far better.