美国少数族群传媒关于族群和国家认同的研究

美国学者对少数族群传媒的研究表明，少数族群传媒具有促进族群与国家双重认同的特点，对族群文化的认同不等同于对移民来源国的政治认同。当然美国学者有关研究也存在不足，只有公平、公正、包容地对待少数族群传媒，才能减少传媒与政府的矛盾，才能促进少数族群融入主流社会，增强对国家的认同。     

Lies in a Time of Threat: Betrayal Blindness and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election

Exit polls from the 2004 U.S. presidential election indicated overwhelming support for President Bush among voters who said they valued honesty, even though the Bush administration had been sharply criticized for deceiving the public, especially concerning the reasons for invading Iraq. A psychological theory recently developed to help explain memory loss in trauma survivors sheds light on this paradox. Betrayal Trauma Theory ( Freyd, 1996 ) states that memory impairment is greatest when a victim is dependent on the perpetrator. The theory also predicts who will be "blind" to signs of deception—those who are emotionally or financially dependent on the person who is lying. Although every American is dependent on the U.S. President to some extent, religious conservatives may be more psychologically dependent than others. Because they believe their core values are under attack, they depend on powerful leaders such as President Bush to defend these values. This psychological dependence may make it difficult for them to notice the administration's deceptions.     

Eliminating the U.S. drug lag: Implications for drug safety

An increase in new drugs first launched in the U.S. and shorter lags between first global drug launch and U.S. approval indicate that the U.S. drug lag has declined. This paper examines the impact of these changes on drug safety using adverse drug reaction data for FDA-approved drugs in 1990 to 2004. Results show two different effects. First, drugs having longer U.S. launch lags (more foreign market experience) have fewer post approval drug risks compared to drugs with shorter launch lags. This result implies that foreign market experience prior to U.S. entry provides information to help alleviate drug-related risks for U.S. patients. Second, drugs that are first launched in the U.S. have fewer serious drug reactions compared to those that were first launched abroad. This result is surprising, and may suggest that first U.S. drug launch signals information about unobserved application quality, which translates into lower post approval drug risks.     

Trade, education, and innovation: Prospects for the U.S. economy

This paper examines international trade issues as vital indicators of the economic prospects of the United States and other developed economies. In particular, it challenges misuses of the doctrine of mutual gains from trade and instead argues that comparative advantage does not guarantee increases in benefits to both trading partners—especially when one partner seeks to distort the market mechanism in its favor. In the face of such mercantilist or protectionist practices, efforts to advance innovation, without retaining manufacturing jobs, will not ensure continued prosperity, as the number of jobs entailed in the invention process is small compared with the number of jobs associated with manufacturing an innovative product for mass consumption. These matters call for the urgent rethinking of trade policy by the United States and other developed nations, if they are to balance their imports and exports and ensure continued economic growth.     

扩张与收缩：论美国外交的周期性

自1801年托马斯·杰斐逊总统上台以来,美国外交即呈现出“扩张——收缩——再扩张——再收缩……”的周期模式。从上一次扩张到下一次扩张或从上一次收缩到下一次收缩的平均时间约为45年左右。迄今为止,美国外交经历了四个半周期。美国经济的周期性波动、国际局势的变动、国内思潮的转换等因素是推动美国外交扩张与收缩的主要动力。当前美国外交开始步入第五个周期的收缩期,这将对世界和中国产生重大影响。     

Demand for health risk reductions: A cross-national comparison between the U.S. and Canada

Using a large stated preference survey conducted across the U.S. and Canada, we assess differences in individual willingness to pay (WTP) for health risk reductions between the two countries. Our utility-theoretic choice model allows for systematically varying marginal utilities for avoided future time in different adverse health states (illness-years, recovered/remission years, and lost life-years). We find significant differences between Canadian and U.S. preferences. WTP also differs systematically with age, gender, education, and marital status, as well as a number of attitudinal and subjective health-perception variables. Age profiles for WTP are markedly different across the two countries. Canadians tend to display flatter age profiles, with peak WTP realized at older ages.     

Smithian Domestic Product and the U.S. economy

This study examines Adam Smith's concept of national product (referred to as Smithian Domestic Product, or SDP) which he articulated in The Wealth of Nations. In contrast to Gross Domestic Product (which measures the production of things that have value), Smith's measure is more plutological. It measures the production of things critical for the accumulation of wealth. Given the global interest in economic growth and improvements in living standards, SDP is potentially useful as a complement to the GDP measure. As a preliminary effort to assess that potential, SDP and GDP estimates for the U.S. economy were compared for the period from 1949 to 2002. For two major macroeconomic events in the past decade (the economic boom of the 1990s and the recent recession), SDP appears to perform better than the GDP measure.     

Voting for president in the U.S.-Mexico border region

Reasoning that life in the U.S.-Mexico border region is sufficiently different from life in non-border regions this paper asks whether proximity to the border has a significant impact on presidential voting. County level data from four border states, California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, over five presidential elections, 1992-2008, are examined using a both cross-sectional and panel data analysis. The authors conclude that there is a border effect that favors Democratic candidates and that fades as distance from the border increases.     

The Precautionary Principle in Context: U.S. and E.U. Scientists' Prescriptions for Policy in the Face of Uncertainty*

Objective. Our objective is to explain how scientists interpret less‐than‐certain scientific findings to inform policymakers' choices on controversial science policy issues. We focus on two particularly difficult policy cases concerning global climate change and low‐dose radiation protection. Methods. Our method is to analyze data from a unique multination survey of scientists to analyze the ways their views about what is scientifically correct are translated into judgments about appropriate policy. The surveys asked scientists, randomly drawn from U.S. and E.U. subscribers to the journal Science, to indicate the “most likely” relationships between greenhouse gas emissions and average global temperatures and between radiation dose and incidence of cancer in humans. Follow‐up questions asked for their judgments about appropriate policy targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emission and safety standards for radiation exposure. The data permit analysis of the relationships between scientific certainty and policy judgments in these two cases. Results. Our results shed light on when and how scientists reach precautionary policy conclusions, demonstrating that scientists' application of precaution is dependent on context. In the case of radiation protection, greater certainty is associated with less precaution. But with respect climate change, we found the opposite relationship. Conclusions. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for the role of scientists, and scientific advice, in the policy process.     

国会与美国国家导弹防御系统

在介绍和分析美国国家导弹防御系统 (NMD)和克林顿政府的有关计划之后 ,作者重点研究了国会对此的考虑和反应。     

气候安全威胁美国的国计民生

本文通过在美国访问期间所作的《美国气候变化和国际安全的调查问卷》数据报告,进行系统的整理分析,来分析气候变化所带来的直接安全和间接安全问题。气候变化的影响远不限于它本身带来的生态威胁,由其所产生的国际冲突、资源争夺和国际干预也对美国外交提出了新的挑战。问卷结果显示,气候变化在中长期（至2025年前后）将会逐渐成为影响美国国家安全比较重要的因素,美国国内对于气候安全的共识将会逐渐加深。美国对气候安全政治化和国际化的重视程度日益深入,这会给未来美国参与全球气候谈判注入新的动力。世界各国应对美国的气候外交有所关切,并在合作中进行积极应对。     

Office of Economic Opportunity: U.S.A.

The Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO), was created at the height of Lyndon Johnson's “Great Society” anti-poverty programmes. It represented a degree of radical activism that reached its culmination in the 89th Congress (1965-66) and indeed has never been repeated: that Congress was perhaps the only genuinely left-liberal one this century (outside the New Deal era, at any rate). The OEO's social policies were tied to a particular theory of public and social administration: that a “rival” federal agency to the existing ones (Health, Education and Welfare, now Health and Human Services; Housing, and Urban Development, et al) could escape their conservative norms. Both at the federal level and in the “field” agencies it spanned to implement its programmes, the new approach to social administration was to by-pass traditional channels. This short, illustrative rather than definitive article, examines how such an approach was undermined by both the U.S. political structure and by traditional “politics as usual”. It is but a snapshot of the era. However, it hints at the general problems that such approaches to “by-passing” traditional agencies and attempting to develop a new autonomy in social reform may have in many countries, especially those with decentralized political structures. For, while decentralized politics provides opportunities as well as barriers to reformers seeking to by-pass traditional elites (which themselves tend to be decentralized, mirroring political structures), it is suggested here that the balance sheet will tend to be negative from the viewpoint of reformist social administration.     

美国战略思维与霸权战略选择

作为最基本的战略要素之一,战略思维反映着一个国家带有根本性的安全与利益需求,构成了国家安全观念演变的内在逻辑线索,并以潜在的、复杂的方式决定着国家安全战略的选择行为。冷战结束后,特别是“9·11”事件以来,美国在力量不断膨胀以及外部威胁突然刺激的情况下,逐渐选取了单极世界霸权的大战略。事实上,美国单极霸权的战略选择深深植根于美国战略思维的特性。通过对美国战略思维缺陷的分析,我们看到,美国单极霸权的战略选择不仅不会更好地护持美国的霸权,反而将会加速美国霸权的衰落。