Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.     

The best-laid schemes: An analysis of discrepancies between migration intentions and behavior

A longitudinal survey approach is used in a largely rural area in the Philippines to examine consistency between migration intentions and subsequent migration behavior. Inconsistencies in movement behavior, the timing of a move, and the destination are analyzed. Discrepancies between intentions and behavior are explained in terms of unanticipated constraints and facilitators as well as changes in the conditions that precipitated the migration intention in the first place. Intended international movers who did not actually move in a 2-1/2 year period were thwarted mainly by legal hurdles that could not be overcome. Intended internal migrants who did not actually move remained in their origin area primarily because of changes in job opportunities or family relationships. Methodological and theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men Gang aft agley, An' la'e us nought but grief an' pain, For promis'd joy! we must bear in mind the distinction between direct and facilitating factors involved in migration processes . migration analysis should consider some factors that facilitate or impede migration rather than determine migration directly (Goldscheider, 1971:38).This article was originally presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of American in Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. The authors wish to thank Lynna Sycip for her assistance in the preparation of the tabulations for this article. In addition to the authors, the co-investigators for this project are James T. Fawcett, East-West Population Institute and Ricardo G. Abad, Institute of Philippine Culture, Ateneo de Manila University. Research for this article has been supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, Manila, Philippines, and the East-West Population Institute.     

Do People Move When They Say They Will? Inconsistencies in Individual Migration Behavior

Conventional theories of migration decision–making posit that there exists a simple, sequential link between residential satisfaction, mobility intentions and actual moving behavior. Past empirical work, however, has indicated substantial discrepancies between mobility intentions and behavior. This study investigates behavioral inconsistencies in migration using data drawn from the 1985, 1987 and 1989 rounds of the American Housing Survey (AHS). Mobility is inferred by comparing occupants of the same housing units in two consecutive surveys. The results show that a substantial number of people do not realize their intention to move and many move unexpectedly; with or without prior intentions to move, movers and stayers appear to differ significantly in terms of their sociodemographic characteristics. The extent to which individuals act consistently with their intentions also differs along with their attributes (e.g., tenure, age, education and gender). The paper discusses possible reasons for behavioral inconsistencies in migration based on recent developments in social psychological theories of human behavior.     

Rural-urban mobility in Thailand: A decision-making approach

This paper has analyzed a theoretical model of mobility decision-making. The model relies entirely on individual-level factors rather than macro-level factors as determinants of migration decision-making. The individual-level variables included in the model are: recent mobility history, urban social contacts, information about urban areas, evaluations of different locations, migration plans, and actual movements in the period subsequent to an initial interview. The empirical results indicate that with some exceptions there are relatively strong links of the type suggested in the model among these variables. The model was evaluated separately for two groups of villages for movement to Bangkok and for movement to Northeast Thai towns. Thus, four submodels were estimated, providing an opportunity to observe how robust the model is with respect to varying destinations and origins. Although certain differences are found among the four submodels, the overwhelming feature is their similarity. Where differences do exist, they generally reflect differences in the effectiveness of prior mobility as a predictor of other variables in the process. Clearly, a villager's previous history of movement is a key factor affecting subsequent movement and the entire decision-making process. The primary effect of having friends and relatives in a particular urban center is to increase the amount of information a villager has about that urban center. Information has a significant effect on evaluations and plans. Except in one submodel, evaluations have a significant effect on plans; and the existence of plans--which to some extent represent a culmination of social contacts, information, and evaluations--is the only factor other than previous mobility which has a significant direct effect on subsequent movement. Thai policy makers are searching for ways to stimulate the growth of regional urban growth centers and reduce the growth of Bangkok. From the standpoint of intervention, a key variable in this process would appear to be information. Not only is information level related to evaluations of an urban area and mobility plans, but, compared to other variables in the model, it appears to be relatively amenable to modification by inputs deriving from a source external to the village itself. It appears difficult to modify evaluations or migration plans directly, though both could be indirectly influenced by informational inputs. Movement history would be difficult, if not impossible, to manipulate; while villagers could be sponsored for short trips to town, this is not likely to produce much long-range effect.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970–2002

Cross‐nationally, observed fertility is well below mean levels of reported ideal family size and also usually well below survey respondents' fertility desires and intentions. The United States is an exception. In this article we: (1) discuss the importance of fertility ideals and intentions for understanding observed fertility levels, (2) propose a model that can account for variable attitude‐behavior consistency, and (3) use this model as a framework to examine trends in American women's fertility ideals, intentions, and actual fertility. Our study uses data from the General Social Surveys and the Current Population Surveys. We ask whether preferences and intentions for moderate family sizes have eroded with time. The answer is remarkably clear: the dominant American ideals and intentions are for two or three children, and these preferences have persisted across the last three decades. The unusual aggregate correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States is explained by an apparent offsetting of factors that increase/decrease fertility relative to intentions.     

Urban temporary out-migration under economic reforms: Who moves and for what reasons?

Studies of temporary migration in developing countries often focus on rural outmigration and are preoccupied with problems it may bring to cities. Using a unique data set from two surveys conducted in Zhejiang province, China, this paper examines the other side of the coin — temporary migration from urban places — and thereby provides an important complement to studies focusing on rural-urban migration. The analysis identifies three types of temporary migrations: on-business, economic, and family-related. Using multinomial logit model, the analysis suggests that the three types of temporary migration differ significantly from each other in both their causes and migrants' socioeconomic characteristics; so does urban-urban migration from urban-rural migration. The considerable urban-rural temporary migration attests to the fact that temporary migration is not a one-way process; its positive selectivity further indicates that a considerable human capital flows from urban to rural areas through urban-rural temporary migration, which provides rural areas much needed science and technology and becomes an important facilitating factor of rural socioeconomic development.This article is based on a paper, presented at the meetings of the American Sociological Association, Pittsburgh, August 1992.     

中国农民工的社会网络与性别偏好——基于深圳调查的研究

文章利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2005年中国深圳市农民工调查数据,基于社会网络理论定量研究了农民工的性别偏好现状及其影响因素。研究发现流动后农民工的生育观念与行为仍具有明显的男孩偏好特征;社会网络因素、流动因素和个体因素在一定程度上对农民工的男孩偏好观念与行为产生了影响。本文的研究结果对于理解中国城镇人口出生性别比偏高的现象和原因有重要作用。     

Migration and fertility in Puerto Rico

Abstract In an investigation based on special tabulations of the 25 per cent sample from the 1960 Census of Population for Puerto Rico, it is found that migration experience tends to be associated with fertility for various marital statuses, including consensual unions, and for rural, urban and metropolitan residence. The findings cannot be attributed to variations in age composition among the various categories as age standardization and age-specificcomparisons yield similar results. However, it is also found that rural-urban and consensually-legally mated differentials in fertility cannot be accounted for by variations in the migration variables that are examined. Thus, consistently higher fertility is found for non-migrants than for migrants; for consensually mated than for legally married and for rural than for urban or metropolitan residents. With a single exception, women in consensual unions, fertility is lower for women in the San Juan metropolitan area than in the other urban areas.     

Residential preferences in a model of migration intentions

The congruence of stated residential preferences and observed migration behavior suggests that preferences may be important in the migration decision-making process. Using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey, this analysis incorporates a measure of residential preference into a model of migration intentions similar to that developed by Speare (1974) for residential movement. Our results indicate that preferences and community satisfaction are interrelated and each has an independent effect on migration. We also find that the decision to migrate may be more directly influenced by ties to the community than is a residential move. Thus home ownership, age, and length of residence directly affect migration plans net of preferences and satisfaction, whereas only home ownership directly influenced the decision to move residentially in Speare's (1974) analysis.This research has been supported by the Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station (Journal Article #10,961), and by the Economic Development Division, Economic Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture through a cooperative agreement with the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Additional support was provided by the Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station, the College of Social Sciences, Michigan State University, and by the Center for the Study of Metropolitan Problems, NIMH. Computer analysis was aided by a "Center for Population Research" grant, No. HDO5876, to the Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, from the Center for Population Research of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. We wish to thank Dennis Hogan and Joel Nelson for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. James Zuiches is currently on leave from Michigan State University.     

Recent studies on place-utility and intention to migrate: An international comparison

Findings from five recent studies carried out in different cultural and social-economic contexts (Egypt, Kenya, Philippines, Thailand, and U.S.A.) show significant support for certain features of a "placeutility/migration intentions" model of migration decisions. These findings also suggest that there may be substantial variation in the migration decision process from one setting to another, and that the behavioral models which have been generally used to advance hypotheses in this field need to be revised to take into account empirical findings.Subjective assessments of place-utility are at best partial predictors of actual migration, as measured in follow-up surveys in four of the five studies. Intentions to move are strong predictors of subsequent migration in some settings but weak predictors in others. The findings point to the need to give greater weight to personal and structural constraints on migration (financial resources, help from friends, etc.) which, in the decision making process, may override place-utility consideration in the determination of intentions and actual migration decisions. Overall, the five studies add significantly to knowledge on how migration decisions are made in different settings and point to a number of challenging hypotheses and gaps in research design which need to be addressed in future research.This paper constitutes a revised version of my Discussant's Comments for the session on "Migration strategies, migration intentions, and migration decisions," organized by James T. Fawcett at the Population Association of American Annual Meetings, Minneapolis, April 1984. The revisions take into account modifications in the content and authorship of the papers prior to appearing in this issue or elsewhere in final printed form. I am indebted to Jean Turner for her comments on the draft of this paper.     

关注人口安全，促进乡城人口流动与农村社会协调发展

人口安全是一个全新的概念,人作为社会的主体,人口安全既应该包括自身结构和功能的协调,也应该包括人口与社会经济发展和资源开发等的和谐,使他们处于可持续的发展状态。目前我国流动人口的规模在不断的扩大,特别是农村流动人口规模迅速增长,大量的农民进入城市工作,出现了与城市和农村发展不相适应的问题,给社会稳定造成了一定的影响。流动人口与农村社区发展的协调问题,一直没有引起人们足够的重视。大量的人口流动在促进农村经济发展的同时,同样也给农村社会带来了一定的压力,包括养老、儿童教育等多个方面,关注流动人口给农村带来的负面影响,促进乡城人口流动与农村社会的协调发展,对于解决我国的农村和农民问题将具有重要的意义。     

中国城乡人口迁移数量决定因素的实证研究:1992~2004

通过对影响中国城乡迁移的因素进行实证分析,得到如下结论:第一,中国的经济增长对城乡迁移具有比较明显地促进作用;第二,人均耕地面积的减少成为城乡迁移比较重要的推动力量;第三,中国城镇新增就业岗位对城乡迁移具有显著的正向影响,中国城镇失业率对城乡迁移的影响不显著,中国的城乡迁移仍存在盲目性;第四,中国城乡收入差距对城乡迁移的作用不显著。     

The making of a ghetto: Spatially concentrated poverty in New York City in the 1980s

In recent years a debate has arisen over which of two mechanisms — class selective household mobility or spatially focused increases in poverty — has been the driving force in concentrating poverty in certain inner-city neighborhoods. This paper utilizes a multivariate analysis to identify the processes underlying areal income-class transition in New York City during 1978–1987, and the areal characteristics that predict a consistent path of change. By anchoring the analysis at the level of the individual housing unit, this study disentangles the competing mechanisms of poverty concentration and demonstrates that both selective mobility and shifts in income class contribute to areal income-class transition, but that the latter mechanism accounts for a greater amount of change. Further, after controlling for the proportion of minority residents and public housing units in the area, the results show that location in poor areas is associated with poor in-movement, nonpoor out-movement, and downward shifts in the income class among long-term residents. These mutually reinforcing processes lead to continued decline in extreme- and high-poverty areas, while processes in the opposite direction sustain the economic vitality of low-poverty areas.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1992 meetings of the Population Association of America in Denver, Colorado.     

[An analysis of population growth during the Seventh Five-Year Plan period].]

Population trends in China during the period of the Seventh Five-Year Plan (from 1986 to 1990) are analyzed. It is noted that, because of the high fertility rates prevalent during the 1960s, an increase in the birth rate following 1986 was to be expected. The author considers the cumulative effect of this change in fertility, the trend toward earlier marriage, and the increase in internal, primarily rural-urban, migration. Some possible measures to control population growth in these circumstances are enumerated.     

Different Reasons,Different Results: Implications of Migration by Gender and Family Status

Previous research on migration and gendered career outcomes centers on couples and rarely examines the reason for the move. The implicit assumption is usually that households migrate in response to job opportunities. Based on a two-year panel from the Current Population Survey, this article uses stated reasons for geographic mobility to compare earnings outcomes among job migrants, family migrants, and quality-of-life migrants by gender and family status. We further assess the impact of migration on couples’ internal household economy. The effects of job-related moves that we find are reduced substantially in the fixed-effects models, indicating strong selection effects. Married women who moved for family reasons experience significant and substantial earnings declines. Consistent with conventional models of migration, we find that household earnings and income and gender specialization increase following job migration. Married women who are secondary earners have increased odds of reducing their labor supply following migration for job or family reasons. However, we also find that migrating women who contributed as equals to the household economy before the move are no more likely than nonmigrant women to exit work or to work part-time. Equal breadwinner status may protect women from becoming tied movers.     

新疆省际人口迁移现状及效果评价

人口迁移对迁出地、迁入地双方均产生政治、经济、文化等多方面的影响．因而人口迁移和流动一直受到各国学者的广泛关注。新疆一直是人口迁移活动频繁的地区。本文根据全国第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查的数据,对近年来新疆省际人口迁移的现状进行了翔实的描述,评价了新疆省际人口迁移的效果,指出了省际人口迁移过程中所存在的问题,最后提出建立新疆人口省际迁移的协调机制、采用灵活人口政策吸引外省优秀人口和实现流动人口基本公共服务均等化等三点政策建议。     

Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

We evaluate how changes in weather patterns affected rural-urban migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries, by age and sex, over the 1980–2015 period. We combine recent age- and sex-specific estimates of net rural-urban migration with historical data on rainfall and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We also compare standard unweighted estimates of rainfall and temperature to estimates weighted by the proportion of the country’s total rural population in the CRU grid. Results show that rural out-migration of young adults is the most sensitive to shifts in weather patterns, with lower rainfall, lower variability in rainfall, and higher temperatures increasing subsequent rural out-migration—though the last of these is not observed in weighted models. The strength of these effects has grown stronger over time for 20–24 year olds, though weaker above age 30. In contrast, increasing temperature variability is associated with a higher rural in-migration of children (0–9) and older adults (55–64). Gender differences in these effects are minimal and concentrated in areas which experienced heavy reductions in rainfall.

     

Migration psychology: New behavioral models

Migration is a topic that links the interests of population psychologists and environmental psychologists. The past two decades have witnessed important developments in psychologically-oriented studies of migration behavior. New decision making models that incorporate place perceptions and motivational constructs provide a context for the studies of migration intentions and behavior collected in this special issue.     

中国乡城人口流动与城镇出生人口性别比——基于“五普”数据的分析

本文利用中国第五次人口普查1‰抽样数据,以城镇区域人口为重点,定量分析了农村人口流动对城镇地区人口出生性别比,以及农村流入城镇人口子女性别的影响。研究发现,中国农村未流动人口、农村流入城镇人口和城镇非农村流入人口的出生性别比均偏离了出生性别比的正常水平,农村人口流动影响了城镇地区生育性别,农村流入城镇人口相对较强的男孩偏好观念加剧了城镇地区出生性别比偏高。     

Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana

Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population–environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate-related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana’s forest-savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate-related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio-demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate-related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.