Population density,urban centrality,and agricultural intensification in Jordan

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where centrality is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1992 Meeting of the Southern Demographics Association, Charleston, SC, 15–17 October 1992.     

Education,employment, and fertility in Kinshasa and prospects for changes in reproductive behavior

This paper examines fertility behavior of women in Kinshasa, Zaire's capital city with a population of roughly four million. We look at relationships linking women's education, employment, and fertility behavior (children ever born, age at first marriage, contraception, abortion, breastfeeding, and postpartum abstinence), using data from a 1990 survey of reproductive-age women. Other things equal, there are significant differences by educational attainment and by modern sector employment in lifetime fertility and in most of the proximate determinants as well. The results suggest that modern contraception and abortion are alternative fertility control strategies in Kinshasa, with abortion appearing to play an important role in contributing to the observed fertility differentials by education and employment. The dramatic increases that have taken place in women's access to secondary and higher education are likely to reduce fertility in the future, while the effects of Zaire's current economic and political crisis are uncertain. Our findings are consistent with some of the arguments of Caldwell et al. (1992) on a new type of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. If Zaire seeks to lower fertility, policy efforts should be made to soften the impact of economic crisis on school enrollments and enhance opportunities for young women to remain in school, at least well into the secondary level. Policy should also seek to promote more effective marketing and delivery of modern family planning services, so as to induce women to substitute modern contraception for abortion as a means of controlling their fertility.     

Population,resources, environment: an uncertain future

This issue analyzes the economic and environmental consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries (LDC), the population decline in developed countries, the limits that life on a finite planet impose on economic and demographic expansion and progress, and the proper governmental response to promote the welfare of its current and future citizens. The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about direct causal relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in LDC, thus contributing to degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of land, water, and nonhuman species on which humans depend. Demands of the rich industrial countries have also generated environmental pressures and have been foremost in consumption of the nonrenewable resources of fossil fuels, metals, and nonmetallic minerals. On the other hand, population and economic growth have also stimulated technological and management changes that help supply and use resources more effectively. Wide variations in the possible ultimate size of world population and accelerating technological change make future interrelationships of population, resources, and the environment uncertain as well as complex. Those interrelationships are mediated largely by government policies. Responsible governments can bring about a sustainable balance in the population/resource/environment equation by adopting population and development policies that experience has shown could reduce future population numbers in LDC below the additional 5 billion indicated in current UN medium projections. This coupled with proven management programs in both LDC and developed countries could brake and reverse the depletion and degradation of natural resources.     

Policies on population,land use,and environment in Rwanda

The paper first describes the interactions between population growth, land use, and environment in Rwanda, a small, densely populated landlocked nation in the East-African Great Lakes region. These interactions are modelled using a conceptual framework applied to the neighboring Kivu region in Zaire, but adapted to the Rwandan case study. Second, the paper contends that the emphasis put on increasing agricultural production, mostly through the use of marginal land, as well as the lack of a timely implementation of a family planning program and a national population policy, have led to a worsening of the interactions between population growth, land use, and environment. In an attempt to demonstrate this hypothesis, demography-driven projection scenarios are applied to the agricultural colonization and intensification processes.     

Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia

Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water, inadequate tenure agreements, and price setting. Slowing population growth provides time to adjust to expanding production and saving the environment.     

Changing Patterns of the Floating Population in China, 2000–2010

Using data from the 2000 and 2010 Chinese population censuses and applying a consistent definition of migration, we examine changing patterns of China's floating population during 2000–2010. During the first decade of the twenty‐first century, there have been significant changes in China's floating population, as reflected in a continuing growth of interprovincial floating population and the growth of the floating population in China's western and interior regions, geographic diversification of destinations for the floating population, a major increase in interprovincial return migration, and significant improvement in education and occupational profiles among the floating population. We argue that these patterns are driven by domestic and international factors, including the newly released Labor Law, removal of agricultural tax, the western China development program, increased investment in education by the Chinese government, and the global financial crisis. We also discuss several challenges facing the floating population, which include limited educational opportunity for migrant children and inadequate housing and social welfare protection for the floating population.     

Feeding a growing world

Technology allows for the increased production of food to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population. However, in poor countries, technology may not be economically or environmentally affordable. The balance between food supply and population growth will depend upon government's ability to design and enforce policies and programs to deal with increased population, poverty, and environmental degradation. Approaches will be specific to a country's needs. In Bangladesh, food aid will be needed. In Zaire, political reform will be required. Many countries will have to shift from investments in war to social development. Three kinds of countries will experience difficulty in feeding their populations: 1) countries with little or no reserves of fertile land or water and insufficient funds for food imports; 2) countries that have sufficient reserves of land and water but suffer from government policy failures and neglect of agriculture; and countries with political instability and civil war, which invariably are linked with famine and drought. The future prospects will be a slow increase in dietary intake in most regions, fluctuations in food availability and prices, increased crop yields and land under cultivation, and slower expansion of agricultural lands due to environmental constraints. Pessimists have predicted increased environmental costs of food production due to soil erosion, pesticide contamination of soil and water, loss of species, and fertilizer run-off. Optimists have argued that new lands can be brought under cultivation and investments in agricultural research can help to increase food productivity. As Population Council vice president in the Research Division, John Bongaarts has reiterated that a positive outcome is more likely if population growth can be stopped.     

Renewable resources and population growth: Past experiences and future prospects

The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about direct causal relationships. Rapid population growth, however, has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to the degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of land, water, and nonhuman species on which humans depend. Demands of the rich industrial countries have also generated environmental pressures and have been foremost in the consumption of the so-called nonrenewable resources: fossil fuels, metals, and minerals. On the other hand, population and economic growth have also stimulated technological and management changes that help supply and use resources more effectively. Wide variations in the possible ultimate size of world population and technological change make future interrelationships of population, resources, and the environment uncertain as well as complex. But those interrelationships are mediated largely by government policies. Responsible governments can bring about a sustainable balance in the population/resource/environment equation by adopting population and development policies that experience has shown could reduce future population numbers in developing countries below the additional five billion indicated in current United Nations medium projections, coupled with proven management programs in both developing and developed countries that could brake and reverse the depletion and degradation of natural resources.This article is adapted from: Robert Repetto, "Population, Resources, Environment; An Uncertain Future,"Population Bulletin, Vol. 42, No. 2 (Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau, 1987).     

高原山区人口分布特征及其主要影响因素——基于毕节地区的Panel Data计量模型分析

本文基于1987～2007年毕节地区八个县市经济、社会和资源环境方面的面板数据,考察了资源环境、经济水平和社会发展等因素对毕节人口分布变动的影响。研究发现,毕节各县市的人口总量和人口密度稳步增加,呈现协同式的增长态势,但各县市之间增长速度快慢不一,显示了区域间的差异;自然环境因素对人口地域分布变动的影响日趋减弱,但是减小的幅度并不大,说明了自然环境因素对人口分布变动的影响是根深蒂固的;经济水平和社会发展因素对人口密度变动的影响越来越大,其中尤以人均GDP和医疗条件变量更为显著;就人口密度的动态变化影响而言,除了受资源环境、社会经济发展因素的共同影响之外,毕节各个县市还表现出其个体显著差异的特征。     

The role of population in social development]

This essay deals with population growth, varieties in population density, and their impacts on social development from the viewpoint of Socialism. The author's main argument can be summarized as follows: 1) population growth is a kind of social production, and it is more important than the geographical environment in relation to social development. Regarding population growth, varieties in population density, and the geographical environment as conditions of equal importance in social life is debatable. 2) the changes in population development should not be limited to the changes in number alone. As science and technology are developed, the impact of changes of population quality on social development is becoming increasingly important. 3) population growth is not the major force which determines the social outlook and social system, and it directly influences social productivity. One should not think that a large population and rapid growth rate will speed up social productivity, or that a small population and a slow growth rate will slow down the development of social productivity. The author quotes Joseph Stalin to support his argument.     

The population dynamics of the large pine aphid,Cinara pinea (Mordv.)

Summary The large pine aphid,Cinara pinea lives exclusively onPinus species, where it feeds on the foliated shoots of the current and previous year. The paper describes the development of a computer model designed to simulate the aphid’s population dynamics on saplings in the controlled environment of the laboratory, i.e. in the absence of natural enemies. The model was able to account for about 80% of the variation in aphid numbers within and between trees over a three month period. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of pine aphids is limited primarily by nymphal emigration, the operation of which is sensitive both to density and to plant quality as reflected in aphid growth rates. Of secondary importance are changes in reproduction acting through increased reproductive delay, again a result of altered growth rates and adult size. Development, too, has an important secondary influence. Contrary to expectation and conventional belief, however, alate production proved to be of negligible importance, either in limiting or regulating population numbers. Alatae are produced in too few numbers and for too short a period to significantly alter the pattern of population change.     

京津冀人口集聚对能源消费的影响

京津冀作为我国重要的人口集聚区,其区域发展面临严重的能源和环境问题。首先,基于STIRPAT模型构建京津冀面板数据模型,研究1990—2017年京津冀人口密度、经济增长、产业结构和环境规制对能源消费的影响。其次,采用SVAR模型通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,研究京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的作用机理和动态影响关系。结果显示,京津冀三地的人口密度、人均实际GDP与能源消费之间存在正向影响关系,其中河北省影响系数最大;北京和天津第三产业占比与能源消费之间存在反向影响关系,河北省第三产业占比对能源消费的影响不显著;北京和天津的环境规制对能源消费影响不显著,河北省环境规制对能源消费具有正向影响;京津冀地区和京冀两地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响在短期呈现负向效应,但是在中长期京津冀地区和三地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响均先上升然后缓慢下降,人口集聚具有集约用能效应。相对于能源消费自身影响而言,京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的贡献相对较小,其影响效应有限。最后,对京津冀人口流动和能源消费一体化协同发展提出对策建议。     

Population and Upland Crop Production in Nang Rong,Thailand

This paper estimates village-level models of the effects of population variables on the area devoted to upland crop production in Nang Rong district, Thailand. The expansion of upland crops is part of the growth of market agriculture in Nang Rong, and a correlate of deforestation in this setting, The results show that population density (measured as density of village settlement) negatively affects area in upland crops while population growth has a positive effect. Changes in land use associated with population change appear to radiate outward from nuclear village centers. As cash economies are established in rural settings, household formation requires a source of income as well as a subsistence stake. Growth in the population of households is a stronger predictor of the area in upland crops than growth in the number of persons.     

A projection of the population of three counties in Zhejiang Province]

This report is based upon information on population statistics and death statistics by different age groups in Yuyao, Jiangshan, and Huangyan counties of Zhejiang Province since 1978. The population condition in this area is analyzed. Collected information is then used as a foundation for predicting the trends in population growth in the next 20-60 years. In addition, the changes in the population's age structure and their impact are also studied in order to provide useful reference materials for the formulation of reasonable population planning measures. According to the general trends of population growth as predicted in this report, the authors believe that efforts should be made to encourage all married couples to have only one child. The first goal should be that at least half of the married couples have only one childs, and that all parents agree not to have a third child. This basic approach is reasonable and realistic and should not be used as a guiding principle to formulate policies and regulations on population planning. More actions and practices are needed to determine how effective this guiding principle is in reality.     

Agricultural backwardness being the fundamental cause of rapid population growth]

We have been an agricultural country for more than 2000 years. The low level of mechanization and dependence of manpower in our agriculture required a large quantity of labor. Therefore, development of Chinese feudal society was closely related to the population growth. After the establishment of a new socialistic China, the rapid development of agricultural production resulted in our 1st population boom (1952 to 1957). Later the rapid development of heavy industry demanded the transfer of a large amount of labor from agriculture. The shortage of labor in China caused reductions in agriculture and a 2nd population boom. The backward nature of China's agriculture requires increased labor input to increase production. On the other hand, the increased productivity does not match the demands of the increased population. Consequently, living standards in the society decrease and the population growth slows. The emphasis on population control and family planning is indeed beneficial to China's economy. The fundamental solution of China's population problem must rely on a technical revolution in agriculture and increased agricultural productivity.     

Preliminary discussion on the current over-population in agriculture in China]

The population devoted to agriculture constitutes more than 80% of China's total population. This high percentage is not very common in today's world. In the last 30 years, the population devoted to agriculture has increased by 81.9%, but the area of arable land has decreased in the same period of time. This situation has created problems, such as a surplus of agricultural labor, an imbalance between the agricultural population growth and agricultural means of production, a serious contradiction between the agricultural population growth and mechanization of agriculture, an imbalance between the agricultural population growth and means of livelihood, and the current low standard of living for populations engaged in agricultural work. In order to solve the problems of overpopulation, various measures must be taken in different places. The economic structure of agriculture is to be reasonably arranged, and various operations in agriculture are to be carried out. In addition to the production of main agricultural crops, forestry, animal husbandry, the fishing industry, and family supplementary income are to be developed in order to provide more job opportunities. Communes and production teams should emphasize labor intensive plans for more profit with less investment. Agriculture should focus on intensive farming in order to increase productivity. Arable land can be expanded with reclamation projects, and water and soil conservation is necessary. The surplus agricultural population should be utilized for productive activities.     

Water Resources,Land Exploration and Population Dynamics in Arid Areas - The Case of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang of China

Water resources are the root of life and development in arid areas like the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China. In the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang, one of the driest places in the world, melting glaciers are the exclusive water source. Population growth, in particular in-migration, has greatly changed the ecological conditions of the Tarim River Basin in the past 2,500 years. Our research aims to study the interactions between population growth and changes in water and land resources, crossing the boundaries of the different reaches in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years. Time series data on population changes and economic development, water volume and quality, land use and land cover changes, and prevalence of morbidity relevant to water quality are collected to study the relationship between these factors. Adopting a statistical analysis and systems dynamics approach, we quantify the effect of population growth on water use and land degradation. ¹This paper results from the research project “Population changes and land degradation in Xinjiang of China,” funded by the Wellcome Trust Foundation (grant no. 065867). The authors appreciate the comments from the anonymous reviewers, and wish to extend thanks to the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis, and to Warren Sanderson, Wolfgang Lutz, Brenda Yeoh, Vipan Prachuabmoh, Min Weifang, Zheng Xiaoying, Brian O’Neill, Steve Hamburg, Laura Sadovnikoff, Verene Koh, and Sam Balakrishnan, for their invaluable support and help.     

Infectious diseases -- new and ancient threats to world health

Infectious and parasitic diseases remain a leading cause of death and disability in developing countries and are re-emerging as a serious health problem in developed countries. Outbreaks of Ebola, dengue hemorrhagic fever, cholera, and bubonic plague have occurred in low-income countries and multidrug-resistant organisms have surfaced throughout the world. Since 1973, over 28 new disease-causing microbes have been identified. This issue of "Population Bulletin" analyzes the impact of factors such as population growth, urbanization, migration, poverty, travel, agricultural practices, climate changes, natural disasters, and medical technology on the resurgence of infectious and parasitic diseases as well as the influence of diseases such as AIDS on population dynamics and socioeconomic development. Most of these diseases could be prevented, cured, or eradicated with known public health measures. National governments can help reduce poverty, step up immunization programs, and lessen the chances of introducing new diseases. Nongovernmental organizations can disseminate preventive knowledge and monitor disease outbreaks. The medical profession can strengthen infection control precautions and institute surveillance of the use of antibiotics and other antimicrobial agents. Since the geographic isolation that used to contain disease outbreaks has been replaced by permeable international borders, the campaign against infectious and parasitic diseases must be global.     

Non-Economic Quality of Life and Population Density in South Africa

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life. Popular opinion has generally been that population density can be seen as beneficial for economic growth, as it allows for greater productivity, greater incomes and can be translated into higher levels of quality of life. Recently though, growing evidence tends to suggest the exact opposite in that increases in productivity and incomes are not translated into better quality of life. As economic or income variables have always played a significant role in this research, questions regarding the relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life has largely remained unanswered. In this light, the paper utilises a panel data set on the eight metropolitan cities in South Africa for the period 1996–2014 to determine the relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life in the South African context. In the analyses we make use of panel estimation techniques which allows us to compare changes in this relationship over time as well as adding a spatial dimension to the results. This paper contributes to the literature by firstly studying the aforementioned relationship over time and secondly conducting the analyses at a sub-national level in a developing country. Our results show that there is a significant and negative relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life. Based on our findings policy measures to encourage urbanisation should not be supported if the ultimate outcome is to increase non-economic quality of life.     

Population and Poverty in Classical Theory: Testing a Structural Model for India

There has for many years been debate over the relationships between population growth rates and poverty. India is a country which provides a good testing ground for hypotheses about this relationship because since Independence a relatively high proportion of the population have lived in poverty; and there also exist reasonable data. This paper develops a simple structural model to investigate the relationship between population growth and poverty in particular, testing a series of hypotheses developed from the work of Marx and Malthus. The data are analysed at state level, and attention is drawn to the problems that this might cause as behaviour is typically determined at the individual household level. The results show that agricultural productivity and the process of landlessness are better predictors of poverty at a state level than the population growth rate. It is argued that the results fit better with the views of Marx than those of Malthus.