Missing data and small area estimation in the UK Labour Force Survey

Summary.  We apply multivariate shrinkage to estimate local area rates of unemployment and economic inactivity by using UK Labour Force Survey data. The method exploits the similarity of the rates of claiming unemployment benefit and the unemployment rates as defined by the International Labour Organisation. This is done without any distributional assumptions, merely relying on the high correlation of the two rates. The estimation is integrated with a multiple-imputation procedure for missing employment status of subjects in the database (item non-response). The hot deck method that is used in the imputations is adapted to reflect the uncertainty in the model for non-response. The method is motivated as a development (improvement) of the current operational procedure in which the imputed value is a non-stochastic function of the data. An extension of the procedure to subjects who are absent from the database (unit non-response) is proposed.     

Design-based analysis of embedded experiments with applications in the Dutch Labour Force Survey

Summary.  Previous research has proposed a design-based analysis procedure for experiments that are embedded in complex sampling designs in which the ultimate sampling units of an on-going sample survey are randomized over different treatments according to completely randomized designs or randomized block designs. Design-based Wald and t -statistics are applied to test whether sample means that are observed under various survey implementations are significantly different. This approach is generalized to experimental designs in which clusters of sampling units are randomized over the different treatments. Furthermore, test statistics are derived to test differences between ratios of two sample estimates that are observed under alternative survey implementations. The methods are illustrated with a simulation study and real life applications of experiments that are embedded in the Dutch Labour Force Survey. The functionality of a software package that was developed to conduct these analyses is described.     

农村劳动力转移状况与特征

中国作为一个人口大国,农村发展 面临的最大制约因素就是农村剩余劳动力的大量存在。如何解决1.7亿农村剩余劳动力的出路问题,是加快农业和农村经济发展,多渠道增加农民收入的迫切需要。     

Monitoring contemporary student flows and characteristics: secondary analyses using the Labour Force Survey and the General Household Survey

This paper examines trends in the participation in higher education by disadvantaged social groups over the recent period of higher education expansion and reform. It has been suggested that disadvantaged groups can recoup by participation at mature ages and this question is examined. The data sources used are the Labour Force Survey (1986–1995), which yielded 13384 students (6747 men and 6637 women) and the General Household Survey (1984–1992) which yielded 1936 students (982 men and 954 women). From a perspective of equal opportunities, the relative participation of young people from manual and non-manual origins does not appear to have changed over the period considered, but there is some evidence of increased relative participation by people from manual class origins as mature students. Mature students from such origins were older than those from non-manual class origins, as were mature women than mature men, with consequences for employability. From a perspective of lifelong learning, the recent expansion has been successful, with more entrants from the unemployed. Considerable percentages of women also enter from full-time housework, and increasing percentages from manual work. However, as in the past, many entrants had been successful in becoming employed before entry, some being seconded by employers. Despite these changes, the greatest absolute take-up has been from middle class youth. Early employment outcomes were examined and suggest some discrimination against mature students. It is possible that the increased cost of higher education, in the context of an expanded labour market of graduates, may deter some mature students.     

Bivariate transition model for analysing ordinal and nominal categorical responses: an application to the Labour Force Survey data

In many panel studies, bivariate ordinal–nominal responses are measured and the aim is to investigate the effects of explanatory variables on these responses. A regression analysis for these types of data must allow for the correlation among responses of the same individual. To analyse such ordinal–nominal responses using a proper weighting approach, an ordinal–nominal bivariate transition model is proposed and maximum likelihood is used to find the parameter estimates. We propose a method in which the likelihood function can be partitioned to make possible the use of existing software. The approach is applied to the Labour Force Survey data in Iran, where the ordinal response, at the first period, is the duration of unemployment for unemployed people and the nominal response, in the second period, is economic activity status of these individuals. The interest is to find the reasons for staying unemployed or moving to another status of economic activity.     

The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models

In this paper, we introduce logistic models to analyse fertility curves. The models are formulated as linear models of the log odds of fertility and are defined in terms of parameters that are interpreted as measures of level, location and shape of the fertility schedule. This parameterization is useful for the evaluation, and interpretation of fertility trends and projections of future period fertility. For a series of years, the proposed models admit a state-space formulation that allows a coherent joint estimation of parameters and forecasting. The main features of the models compared with other alternatives are the functional simplicity, the flexibility, and the interpretability of the parameters. These and other features are analysed in this paper using examples and theoretical results. Data from different countries are analysed, and to validate the logistic approach, we compare the goodness of fit of the new model against well-known alternatives; the analysis gives superior results in most developed countries.     

Ethnic differences in the labour market: a comparison of the samples of anonymized records and Labour Force Survey

The public use sample from the 1991 UK census makes it possible to conduct individual level analyses of ethnic minorities' educational and occupational attainments. Unfortunately, however, the census asked only about higher level qualifications obtained after reaching 18 years of age. A comparison with the Labour Force Surveys (LFSs) shows that the census gives in some respects a misleading impression of qualifications among the first-generation members of ethnic minorities: the LFS data show that ethnic minorities tend to be more polarized in their qualifications than the British-born whites, with relatively large proportions at the two extremes, either with degrees or with no qualifications at all. It follows that the census's treatment of qualifications may tend to exaggerate the scale of disadvantage of ethnic minorities in the labour market, and particularly in access to the salariat where qualifications play a particularly large role in recruitment. Regression analyses of sample of anonymized records and LFS data confirm these expectations although they indicate that the results of the census are not seriously misleading as regards the pattern of ethnic disadvantages in the competition to avoid unemployment. The LFS data also confirm earlier findings that the ethnic penalties are in general of similar magnitude among the second generation to those among the first generation, despite the substantial equalization of educational experience that has taken place. There is some evidence that disadvantages in access to the salariat may have been reduced, but this is counterbalanced by the evidence that disadvantages in the avoidance of unemployment may have deteriorated.     

An Application of Non–Ignorable Non–Response Models for Gross Flows Estimation in the British Labour Force Survey

In previous work, non–response adjustments based on calibration weighting have been proposed for estimating gross flows in economic activity status from the quarterly Labour Force Survey. However, even after adjustment there may be residual non–response bias. The weighting is based on estimates of cross–sectional distributions and so cannot adjust for bias if non–response is associated with individual flows between quarters. To investigate this possibility, it was decided to apply models for estimating gross flows when non–response depends on the flows. This paper has two aims: first to describe the many problems encountered when attempting to implement these models; and second to outline a solution to the major problem that arose, namely, that comparing the model results directly with the weighting results was not possible. A simulation study was used to compare the results indirectly and it was tentatively concluded that non–response is not strongly associated with the flows and that the weighting provides an adequate adjustment.     

北京市人口老龄化系数预测

本文利用生命表理论、联合国平均预期寿命增长模型及年龄移算法,预测北京市老年人口峰值期在2037年。根据北京市1978-2010年户籍人口数据,建立预测值满足老年人口峰值期的向量自回归模型。在设定市际净迁移人数及低、中、高三种总和生育率方案下,利用模型预测北京市2011-2050年的户籍总人数、老年人数以及老龄化系数。预测结果表明：在低、中、高三种方案下,总人数分别在2023年、2024年和2025年达到峰值,峰值分别为1377万人、1389万人和1397万人,老年人数均在2037年达到峰值242万人,在预测期内老龄化系数一直呈上升趋势,至2050年依次为21.25%、20.25%和19.82%。最后,针对预测结果提出了应对北京市人口老龄化的建议。     

A sequential scheme to estimate the optimal age replacement policy

Consider a system which is subject to failure and must be replaced when this occurs. If it costs less to replace the system in advance before failure, it may be advantageous to use an age replacement policy. However, the optimal age to replace the system is unknown if the underlying failure distribution is unknown. This paper develops a scheme to update the current estimate of the optimal age replacement policy in an on-line fashion and simultaneously controlling costs by reducing system failures.     

加拿大劳动力调查的主要内容和方法

加拿大统计局劳动力调查历史长达60多年,是一项月度住户抽样调查,提供了加拿大劳动力市场详尽的信息。本文主要介绍了加拿大劳动力调查的调查目的、调查方法、调查内容和调查估计等,为完善我国劳动力调查制度和方法提供参考。     

Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility

This paper is an applied analysis of the causal structure of linear multi-equational econometric models. Its aim is to identify the kind of relationships linking the endogenous variables of the model, distinguishing between causal links and feedback loops. The investigation is first carried out within a deterministic framework and then moves on to show how the results may change inside a more realistic stochastic context. The causal analysis is then specifically applied to a linear simultaneous equation model explaining fertility rates. The analysis is carried out by means of a specific RATS programming code designed to show the specific nature of the relationships within the model.     

The T-type estimate of a class of partially non linear models

Abstract

This paper considers a partially non linear model E(Y|X, z, t) = f(X, β) + z^Tg(t) and gives its T-type estimate, which is a weighted quasi-likelihood estimate using sieve method and can be obtained by EM algorithm. The influence functions and asymptotic properties of T-type estimate (consistency and asymptotic normality) are discussed, and convergence rate of both parametric and non parametric components are obtained. Simulation results show the shape of influence functions and prove that the T-type estimate performs quite well. The proposed estimate is also applied to a data set and compared with the least square estimate and least absolute deviation estimate.     

Modelling individual fertility levels in Malawian women: a spatial semiparametric regression model

We applied semiparametric spatial Poisson models to analyse fertility decisions at individual level in Malawi. We used the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) to investigate determinants of fertility, in the model that allowed for nonlinear, fixed and spatial risk factors. Inference was based on the Bayesian approach. The unstructured spatial effects were modelled using the exchangeable prior, while for the structured spatial effects we used the intrinsic conditional autoregressive models. Nonlinear effects were modelled using P-splines. Results showed non-linear declining trends of fertility with year of marriage and increasing trends with age at marriage. We also observed significant unstructured effects, however, no significant spatial autocorrelated effects were displayed. Overall, total spatial effects were significantly different at district level.     

Assessing the use of sample selection models in the estimation of fertility postponement effects

Several studies have shown that at the individual level there exists a negative relationship between age at first birth and completed fertility. Using twin data in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity as possible source of bias, Kohler et al. (2001) showed the significant presence of such "postponement effect" at the micro level. In this paper, we apply sample selection models, where selection is based on having or not having had a first birth at all, to estimate the impact of postponing first births on subsequent fertility for four European nations, three of which have now lowest-low fertility levels. We use data from a set of comparative surveys (Fertility and Family Surveys), and we apply sample selection models on the logarithm of total fertility and on the progression to the second birth. Our results show that postponement effects are only very slightly affected by sample selection biases, so that sample selection models do not improve significantly the results of standard regression techniques on selected samples. Our results confirm that the postponement effect is higher in countries with lowest-low fertility levels.     

统计调查数据的全面质量管理

本文借鉴全面质量管理体系的概念,综合分析贯穿统计工作整个流程的统计调查数据质量管理的要素及作用。本文重点讨论了全面质量管理的流程和重点工作的布局;结合统计信息化的建设,特别讨论了相关工作规范、应用软件的作用,以及数据资源的建设和利用。     

中国劳动力调查的另一种四层次样本轮换方法

针对中国劳动力调查在部分省级单位内采用的四阶段抽样设计,构造了一种四级单元连续调查五次时的四层次样本轮换方法。该方法中,一级单元采用样本轮换模式40 in,二级单元采用样本轮换模式20 in,三级单元采用样本轮换模式10 in,四级单元采用样本轮换模式5 in。该方法保证了各级单元的样本量在轮换过程中不发生变化,同时还保证了四级单元在相邻两个季度和相邻两年的相同季度时均具有一定的拼配样本。     

The new strategy for the concise presentation of sampling errors in the Italian Structural Business Statistics Survey

Reporting sampling errors of survey estimates is a problem that is commonly addressed when compiling a survey report. Because of the vast number of study variables or population characteristics and of interest domains in a survey, it is almost impossible to calculate and to publish the standard errors for each statistic. A way of overcoming such problem would be to estimate indirectly the sampling errors by using generalized variance functions, which define a statistical relationship between the sampling errors and the corresponding estimates. One of the problems with this approach is that the model specification has to be consistent with a roughly constant design effect. If the design effects vary greatly across estimates, as in the case of the Business Surveys, the prediction model is not correctly specified and the least-square estimation is biased. In this paper, we show an extension of the generalized variance functions, which address the above problems, which could be used in contexts similar to those encountered in Business Surveys. The proposed method has been applied to the Italian Structural Business Statistics Survey case.     

A micro analysis of the macro differences in refusal risk among metropolitan areas. The case of the Italian multipurpose survey

Although still modest, non response rates in multipurpose household surveys have recently increased, especially in some metropolitan areas. Previous analyses have shown that refusal risk depends on the interviewers' characteristics. The aim of this paper is to explain the difference in refusal risk among metropolitan areas by analysing the strategies adopted in the recruitment of interviewers through a multilevel approach. The Annual Survey on Living conditions is a PAPI survey of the "Multipurpose" integrated system of social surveys and it represents our data base. For non responding household, data on non response by reason, municipality and characteristics of the interviewer are available. The results highlight that those cities recruiting interviewers mainly among young students have a higher refusal risk. These results are particularly important as they indicate that recruitment strategies may have a substantial impact on non sampling errors. Acknowledgements An earlier version of this article was presented at the International Conference on Improving Survey, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, August 25-28, 2002. We would like to thank the participants to the presentation for their useful comments and suggestions. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of any of the institutions they work for.     

On the Characterization of a Bivariate Geometric Distribution

In this article it is shown that a bivariate random variable has a constant failure rate, and mixture geometric marginals, if and only if, it has the loss of memory property and the discrete Freund distribution. This characterization is achieved by extending a key lemma in this area. The mixture geometric can be collapsed to geometric marginals, thus validating the results.