URBANIZATION, SECULARIZATION, AND BIRTH SPACING: A CASE STUDY OF AN HISTORICAL FERTILITY TRANSITION

This article presents an analysis of the effect that urban secularization of religious pronatalism had upon established birth-spacing behavior over the course of the fertility transition in the population of nineteenth-century Utah. First, a model of variance in birth intervals attributable to age at marriage, age of childbearing termination, and completed family size over the duration of childbearing thus defined, is presented. Second, this model is elaborated by incorporating five specific hypotheses concerning the effects of urbanism, secularization, and their interaction, upon interbirth intervals. Although a pattern of urban secularization is found, the uniformity of social and behavioral changes suggests that relatively homogeneous demographic behavior was produced on the frontier by the largely external locus of secularizing influences in the mainstream eastern American community.     

INCOME UNCERTAINTY and THE ONSET OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION

Income uncertainty contributes substantially to explaining the fall in consumption that marks the onset of the Great Depression. Consistent estimates of the variance of income measure income uncertainty from 1921-30 and are produced using a linear moment model. This series provides a statistical link between the large erratic swings in income uncertainty after September 1929 and the Great Crash in the stock market. Comparison of the behavior of income uncertainty in the 1920s to the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras suggests that the experience after the Great Crash was historically unique.     

LIVING IN TWO NEIGHBORHOODS—SOCIAL INTERACTION EFFECTS IN THE LABORATORY

Field evidence suggests that people belonging to the same group often behave similarly, that is, behavior exhibits social interaction effects. We conduct a laboratory experiment that avoids the identification problem present in the field and allows us to study the behavioral logic of social interaction effects. Our novel design feature is that each subject is simultaneously a member of two randomly assigned and identical groups where only members (“neighbors”) are different. We study behavior in a coordination game with multiple equilibria and a public goods game, which has only one equilibrium in material payoffs. We speak of social interactions if the same subject at the same time makes group‐specific decisions that depend on their respective neighbors' decisions. We find that a majority of subjects exhibit social interaction effects both when the game has multiple equilibria in material payoffs and when it only has one equilibrium. (JEL C91, H41, K42, H26)     

SOCIOLOGY AND THE CRISIS OF THE PRESENT (2007 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS)

This essay attempts to take a broad view of the historical forces that have shaped the discipline of sociology and continue to shape it. It is organized around the concept of crisis, arguing that sociology has been produced by crises and that it has been defined by its responses to crises. It identifies an ethic of control and manipulation as a chief product of 19th century responses. It suggests that we have once again entered a period of disruption and rapid change, and that the current challenge of sociology is to situate ourselves, reflexively, within a dense web of philosophical, psychological, social, biological, and environmental linkages, recognizing that we can never see the network in its entirety because we ourselves are nodes within it. However, the ethic of control and manipulation that we have inherited from earlier sociological responses often prevents sociologists from developing an immanent, reflexive, and ecological approach to the crisis of the present that would enable us to place ourselves within this web.     

THE DEMAND FOR EXCESS RESERVES, LIABILITY MANAGEMENT, AND THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS

Commercial bank behavior is not adequately dealt with in existing macro models of the financial sector. The central role of a demand for excess reserves (or free reserves) function in models of the money supply process is particularly suspect. In this paper, it is argued that changes in commercial bank behavior induced by alterations in economic and financial conditions and various banking regulations, along with the central bank's approach to policy, have combined to alter the excess reserve function and the relationship between bank reserves and the money supply. Empirical work presented suggests that the "demand" for excess reserves has indeed undergone structural change. Thus, the study indicates that conventional approaches to commercial bank behavior and the demand for excess reserves need to be reworked.     

INTERPROFESSIONAL RELATIONS AND THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW PROFESSION: Software Engineering in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada

This article explores the conditions under which interprofessional relations may be characterized by conflict and/or cooperation through a case study of the rise of a software engineering (SWE) profession in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. Analysis of professional journal publications produced by the primary computing organizations in all three countries reveals that the development of a SWE profession in the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent, the United States, has been a collaborative project pursued by engineering and computing organizations. In contrast, the development of SWE in Canada has been characterized by intense interprofessional conflict. The investigation suggests that interprofessional conflict may be mitigated when professionalizing groups seeking to lay claim to the same jurisdiction are similar in terms of their organizational size, outlook, and regulatory status.     

THE IMPACT OF BAD WRITING IN ECONOMICS

We find significant style differences between articles written by economists for their professional journals and articles by the same economists in the Wall Street Journal. We find no evidence that style influences the professional success of economists, which suggests that the private rewards to improving the quality of writing are low. Indeed, each community of scholars has probably adopted a "professionally correct" writing style, from which its members diverge little. However, scholars do alter their rhetorical style to communicate effectively with audiences other than the professional community. This suggests that intra- and inter-group (written) communication by economists is efficient.     

Kinesic Patterning in Deceptive and Truthful Interactions

A persistent question in the deception literature has been the extent to which nonverbal behaviors can reliably distinguish between truth and deception. It has been argued that deception instigates cognitive load and arousal that are betrayed through visible nonverbal indicators. Yet, empirical evidence has often failed to find statistically significant or strong relationships. Given that interpersonal message production is characterized by a high degree of simultaneous and serial patterning among multiple behaviors, it may be that patterns of behaviors are more diagnostic of veracity. Or it may be that the theorized linkage between internal states of arousal, cognitive taxation, and efforts to control behavior and nonverbal behaviors are wrong. The current investigation addressed these possibilities by applying a software program called THEME to analyze the patterns of kinesic movements (adaptor gestures, illustrator gestures, and speaker and listener head movements) rated by trained coders for participants in a mock crime experiment. Our multifaceted analysis revealed that the quantity and quality of patterns distinguish truths from untruths. Quantitative and qualitative analyses conducted by case and condition revealed high variability in the types and complexities of patterns that were produced and differences between truthful and deceptive respondents questioned about a theft. Patterns incorporating adaptors and illustrator gestures were correlated in counterintuitive ways with arousal, cognitive load, and behavioral control, and qualitative analyses produced unique insights into truthful and untruthful communication.     

On the links between globalization and poverty

This article surveys the evidence on the linkages between globalization and poverty, drawing on a new NBER study that has been completed under the direction of one of the authors. We focus on two measures of globalization: trade and international capital flows. Past researchers have argued that global economic integration should help the poor since poor countries have a comparative advantage in producing goods that use unskilled labor. Our first conclusion is that such a simple interpretation of general equilibrium trade models is misleading. Second, the evidence suggests that the poor are more likely to share in the gains from globalization when there are complementary policies in place.Third, trade and foreign investment reforms have produced benefits for the poor in exporting sectors and sectors that receive foreign investment. Fourth, financial crises are very costly to the poor. Finally, the collected evidence suggests that globalization produces both winners and losers among the poor. The fact that some poor individuals are made worse off by trade or financial integration underscores the need for carefully targeted safety nets. We conclude the article by identifying a number of unanswered research questions regarding the impact of globalization on poverty.     

THE JOURNEY TO WORK AND GENDER INEQUALITY IN EARNINGS:

It has been well documented that women tend to work closer to home than men. One interpretation of this finding has been that women face more spatially constrained labor markets than men, and these constraints are thought to be a factor in the gender gap in earnings. A recent study of Tel Aviv, Israel, by Moshe Semyonov and Noah Lewin-Epstein (1991) also found that working women clearly tend to hold employment more in the vicinity of their homes than do men. The observed deficits in earnings by employed women were thought to be exchanged for compliance with traditional gender-role expectations. Our study cross-validates key portions of the Semyonov and Lewin-Epstein study for the United States by examining the location of labor markets and their relationship to gender inequality in earnings in the 1988 wave of the NLSY panel database. Using annual earnings as the dependent variable and other similarly defined variables, we parallel their multiple regression analysis. The time-to-work reports of NLSY panel members are used to assess their commuting behavior and the results of this analysis are compared across four types of residential locations: rural, small urban, suburban, and large central city. We modestly confirm the gender inequalities in earnings produced by differential commuting behaviors for men and women but cannot fully generalize them to a broad set of residentially defined labor markets. For instance, women in suburban settings do have a higher return in earnings from time spent commuting but this effect is not significantly higher than the same returns for suburban men. A somewhat surprising negative effect of commuting time on the earnings of suburban women and men was also observed. We suggest further research on this problem involving the "perceived constraint' hypothesis to explain the commuting gap between men and women.     

THE EVOLUTION OF A FREE BANKING SYSTEM

The institutional features of models of unregulated monetary systems have often been arbitrarily and implausibly assumed. This paper instead provides realistic grounding for important features by constructing a logical evolutionary account of free banking. Sophisticated and orderly arrangements are shown to emerge from competition and the pursuit of less costly methods of payment. The emergence of standardized commodity money is followed by the development, in turn, of basic money-transfer banking, easily transferable bank liubilities, and clearinghouses. The features of an evolved free banking system differ from those assumed in recent models of competitive payments systems.     

ON THE EVOLUTION OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN LATIN AMERICA

Because of several policy distortions, including import‐substitution industrialization, widespread government intervention, and both domestic and international competitive barriers, there has been a general presumption that Latin America has been much less productive than the leading economies in the last decades. In this paper we show, however, that until the late 1970s Latin American countries had high productivity levels relative to the United States. It is only after the late 1970s that we observe a fast decrease of relative total factor productivity (TFP) in Latin America. We also show that the inclusion of human capital in the production function makes a crucial difference in the TFP calculations for Latin America. (JEL O11, O47, O54)     

THE INFLUENCE OF RISK VARIABLE DEFINITION ON VALUE-OF-LIFE ESTIMATES

Empirical "value-of-life" estimates derived from labor market wage-risk premiums have varied widely. This paper examines the influence of risk variable definition on these estimates. Value-of-life estimates are derived for one sample from a set of several risk measures. The analysis reveals that the risk variable definition can markedly affect the value-of-life estimate. Further, the paradoxical pattern of "high" estimates from industry risk data and "low" estimates from occupation data is shown to be attributable to different risk definition, not differences in the characterization of risk faced by a given sample of works. Finally, by associating consistently low estimates with one particular risk variable this study suggests much more uniformity in the value-of-life estimates than previously believed.     

CULTURAL AND ECONOMIC SOURCES OF HOMICIDE IN THE UNITED STATES

Are high rates of homicide better explained by cultural or economic factors? Some research suggests that a regional culture of violence underlies high rates of homicide, whereas other research suggests that poverty or economic inequality increases the likelihood of homicide. A major limitation of this body of research has been the failure of researchers to include an indicator of cultural support for violence that is analytically separate from measures of southern region. In this article, a 12-item Legitimate Violence Index (LVX) is introduced that measures cultural support for violence. Using the 50 states as the units of analysis, hypotheses derived from cultural and economic theories of homicide are investigated using multiple regression. Several additional variables are included in the analysis to control for spurious relationships. The results show that legitimate violence, poverty, and economic inequality are significantly associated with state-to-state differences in the incidence of homicide.     

TEENAGE RISKY BEHAVIOR AND PARENTAL SUPERVISION: THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF MULTIPLE SHIFTS SCHOOL SYSTEMS

We study the relationship between attending high school at night and the probability of engaging in risky behavior, such as having unsafe sex or consuming substances. To address potential endogeneity concerns we take advantage of a random assignment of high school students to daytime and night shifts in the city of Buenos Aires. Using an original survey on students attending their last year of high school, we find that girls attending high school in the evening start having sex at an earlier age and present a higher probability of getting an abortion. We find no significant differences for substance use. Our experimental approach suggests that the link between high school shift and risky behavior is causal. Results hold when we use an alternative sample of alumni. Finally, we report evidence that the lack of parental supervision is the mechanism underlying our results. (JEL I12, I25, J13)     

Social capital and public goods

Previous literature suggests positive relationships between social capital, pro-social behavior and subsequent economic development. We analyze the relationship between social networks and trust (two measures of social capital) and self-reported charitable contributions of time and/or money (pro-social behavior) using data collected from two ethnically distinct, low-income neighborhoods. We find that large social networks are positively related to charitable contributions, but that the effects of trust are less robust. We also find that social networks that are more geographically dispersed tend to be larger. Our results indicate that the social capital in a neighborhood is more important than ethnicity, ethnic diversity, or other demographic information in understanding public goods contributions.     

THE LONG ARM OF THE LAW:

This article offers a test of labeling theory by exploring whether contact with school and justice system authorities has long-term, negative, and independent effects on an individual's labor market success. We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), a large and nationally representative sample, to examine whether experiences ranging from school suspension to incarceration during ages 15–23 can predict occupational status, income, and employment during ages 29–37. Unlike previous studies, we control for an exhaustive list of variables: social background, human capital, prior deviant behavior, family status, and local context. Our findings generally support labelling theory. Severe forms of labeling like sentencing and incaraceration have the strongest negative effects, though among females suspension or expulsion from school also has consistently negative effects. We conclude with a discussion of how labeling might reduce employment chances, with a focus on gender differences.     

AMERICAN PROFESSIONAL WRESTLING: EVOLUTION,CONTENT, AND POPULAR APPEAL

Over the past several years, professional wrestling, now referred to as sports entertainment, has become a hugely popular cultural phenomenon. There are several reasons to account for why tens of millions of Americans are attracted to this form of entertainment, but this article centers attention on three allures that stand out: excitement, intrigue, and political incorrectness. Content analysis suggests that these three foci form the core of pro wrestling program content. The present paper identifies the macrosocial forces that explain sociologically why these themes are especially marketable today: community breakdown, social disenchantment, and political correctness.     

SOCIAL LEARNING THEORY AND ALCOHOL BEHAVIOR AMONG THE ELDERLY

Research directly testing Akers's social learning theory has been thus far confined to teenage drug, drinking, and smoking behavior. This study extends the application of social learning theory to older adults' alcohol behavior. Data were gathered through face-to-face interviews of 1,410 people sixty years of age or over living in New Jersey and Florida in either retirement (age homogeneous) or age-integrated communities. A social learning model of differential association, differential reinforcement, and definitions is supported by findings on elderly drinking behavior. As is true for younger age groups, drinking among the elderly is related to the norms and behavior of one's primary groups, one's own attitudes toward (definitions of) alcohol, and the balance of reinforcement for drinking.