影响磐石县人口出生率回升的主要原因及对策

<正> 人口、出生率是某地、某时期出生人口数与某地、某时期平均人口数的千分比。出生率的变动影响人口总量的变动,出生率的变动情况体现人口再生产的情况。因此,研究人口出生率的变动情况、分析其变动原因,对于了解人口再生产情况、评价计划生育工作及预测未来人口发展趋势都十分重要。人口出生率的变动,受育龄妇女生育水平的影响,而妇女生育水平的变动,则受社会经济、人口政策、文化程度、行业、职业及年龄构成,身体素质等诸多因素的影响。一个地区经济越发达、文化程度越高,妇女生育水平越低,出生人口越少,人口出生率越低,反之,经济越落后,文化程度越低,妇女生育水平就越高,出生的人口就越多,人口生出率当然也就越高。行业、职业不同,生育水平也不一样:脑力劳动者,生育水     

中国人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响研究

本文利用相关年份的《中国统计年鉴》和人口普查数据,根据粗出生率与总和生育率的关系与特征,构建了人口年龄结构系数及其对粗出生率变动影响的贡献率指标,分析了建国以来人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响。研究发现：1949—1979年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响很小;1980—1993年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响迅速上升,年龄结构的贡献率增大;1994—2008年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响趋于下降,人口惯性势能在减弱;2009—2011年,受80—90年代出生高峰的影响,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响再次凸显,年龄结构的贡献率迅速增大。从年龄别生育率逐年下降的特点,也可以证明近年推动我国人口增长的力量主要是由于年龄结构带来的惯性增长。     

影响灵台县人口出生率回升的主要原因与对策

人口出生率是某地、某时期出生人口数与平均人口数的千分比。出生率的变动影响人口总量的变动,同时体现人口再生产的情况。因此,研究人口出生率变动情况,分析其变动原因,对于了解人口再生产情况,评价计划生育工作及预测未来人口发展趋势都十     

新中国少数民族人口的发展演变

中华人民共和国成立后,随着社会经济的迅速发展,党的民族平等、民族团结和各民族共同繁荣发展政策的进一步实施,以及民族地区医疗卫生事业的蓬勃发展,少数民族的人口状况发生了巨大变化。一、旧中国少数民族人口状况新中国成立以前,中国少数民族的人口再生产基本上处于无政府状态,人口再生产以高出生率、高死亡率、低自然增长率的传统类型为主的同时,有的民族人口仍然处于极高出生率、极高死亡率、极低自然增长率的原始再生产类型,甚至在某些地区、某段时期,还处于低出生率、高死亡率、负增长率的特殊类型。例如４０年代吉林省朝鲜…     

我国各省、市、自治区孩次别出生率初析

出生率是人口统计的最基本指标之一,它是分析和研究人口发展趋势的基础,也是制定人口规划和评估其实施情况时常用的基本参数。本文根据1982年和1990年全国人口普查汇总资料,计算了全国和各省、市、自治区分孩次的出生率,并对其地区差异、变动趋势及其相关因素作了初步的分析;本文还根据1989年的多孩出生率及1981年和1989年之间多孩出生率的变化,对全国各省、市、自治区作了初步的分类。     

新疆维吾尔自治区生育水平的演变过程及分布特征分析

本文通过分析新疆维吾尔自治区总和生育率、孩次率、生育率模式的演变过程。及其在地区间、民族间的差异。揭示了新疆地区生育水平的变动规律，为有关部门的决策提供依据。     

南斯拉夫的人口和就业状况

一、人口变动状况 近三十年来南斯拉夫人口变动的特点是出生率、死亡率和自然增长率都呈不断下降的趋势。1950年出生率为30.3‰,1980年则降至16.9％。;同期,死亡率从13‰降至8.8‰,自然增长率则从17.3‰。降至8.1‰。各年变动情况见下表:     

全国及各省、市、自治区近年出生率回升成因的人口学分析

一、引 言 与80年代初特别是与1984年相比,近年来全国与大多数省、市、自治区的人口出生率出现明显回升。根据国家统计局公布的数据,全国1987年出生率比1984年增加20％,有26个省、市、自治区1987年出生率比1984年增加幅度超过10％。 许多同志对近年来我国人口出生率回升的成因作了十分有益的探讨。大家都认为这是由于人口年龄结构变动、婚龄提前、农村经济体制改革之后计划生育控制机制的削弱以及部分     

苏联的人口政策

苏联的人口难题主要表现在两方面:第一、出生率过低,导致自然增长逐年下降,造成劳动力的严重短缺。苏联从六十年代中期开始,自然增长率显著下降(见联合国1979年《人口年鉴》)。据统计,1962-1978年的16年间,人口的自然增长率下降了6.3%;整个八十年代苏联的劳动适龄人口一共只能增加550万人①,还不到第十个五年计划期间(1976-1980年)所需增加的人口的一半。第二、各民族的出生率极不平衡。一方面,苏联欧洲部分的主要民族,包括俄罗斯、乌克兰和白俄罗斯等民族的出生率很低,其自然增长率低于整个国家的平均水平;另方面,该国中亚、外高加索和哈萨克等地区的少数民族人口特点是低死亡,高出生,造成人口增长加速,其自然增长率要比整     

俄罗斯近两次人口普查数据对比分析

将俄罗斯2002、2010年两次人口普查的统计数据从数量与城乡分布,地域分布,年龄与性别分布,婚姻与生育状况,家庭的数量与组成,民族构成、语言技能、公民身份,受教育水平,生计来源等方面进行了对比和简要分析,进而归纳出俄罗斯人口的总量过低,城乡失调,区域失衡,出生率持续下降,年龄结构不合理,婚姻状况、就业、民族和国籍问题复杂,教育优势依旧,生计来源多样等特点,成因在于其自然环境恶劣、民族问题复杂,以及前些年政治体制骤变、社会急剧转型、经济问题严重等。纵然近年俄罗斯政府正在着力解决其人口问题,但其人口问题的严重性还将持续。     

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.     

西方发达国家的就业促进经验及其对中国的启示

近年来 ,随着中国改革开放的深入开展 ,城镇失业率迅速上升。西方发达国家在就业领域 ,都曾经历了失业率上升的发展阶段。为降低失业率 ,各国采取了不尽相同但却切实有效的就业促进措施 ,积累了丰富的就业促进经验。中国也可以借鉴这些就业促进经验 ,以期逐步降低失业率     

中国大陆、中国台湾地区和日本人口问题之探讨及其对策

日本、中国大陆和中国台湾地区均处于低生育率水平,但各自所处发展阶段和面临的人口问题迥异,应对战略不尽相同:中国台湾地区地狭人稠,人口减少未必是坏事,应以稳定生育率为首要,鼓励适龄结婚,带动生育率回升,放宽移民政策,移入高素质人才,提升竞争力;日本总人口已经负增长,应鼓励生育,改革教育,坚持能力主义;中国大陆人口面临结构和数量双重压力,应以调整人口结构和控制人口数量并重为首要任务,提升人力素质。     

再论“小二胎”现象：区域比较的视角——以H省三个典型乡镇为例

本文利用H省三个典型乡镇的访谈资料与统计数据以区域比较的视角对“小二胎”现象进行了再研究。研究结果表明,三镇小二胎现象具有诸多共性,但也存在不少差异。各地都存在较强的男孩偏好和二孩偏好,加之政策环境在2002年的变化,使得此后各地都普遍产生小二胎现象。但是由于村庄社会结构的不同．男孩偏好和二孩偏好程度不一,所以各地的小二胎现象又表现出一定差异。小二胎现象不仅大幅提高了超生率和生育率,而且推高了出生性别比,因此应该引起相关部门的高度重视。在农民生育观念没有彻底转变的情况下,国家要赋予基层干部与政策要求相匹配的治理手段,以稳定我国来之不易的低生育水平。针对各地的区域差异,要采取分类治理的方略。     

Caesarean section by country of birth in New South Wales,Australia

ObjectiveTo determine rates of caesarean section by country of birth and by obstetric risks.MethodsWe analysed the New South Wales Perinatal Data Collection data of women giving birth between January 2013 and December 2015. Obstetric risk was classified using the Robson’s 10-group classification. Multilevel logistic regression with a random intercept was used to measure the variation in caesarean section rate between immigrants from different countries and between regional immigrant groups.ResultsWe analysed data from 283,256 women, of whom 90,750 had a caesarean section (32.0%). A total of 100,120 women were born overseas (35.3%), and 33,028 (33.0%) had a caesarean section. The caesarean section rate among women from South and Central Asia ranged from 32.6% for women from Pakistan to 47.3% for women from Bangladesh. For South East Asia, women from Cambodia had the lowest caesarean section rate (19.5%) and women from Indonesia had the highest rate (37.3%). The caesarean section rate for North Africa and the Middle East ranged from 28.0% for women from Syria to 50.1% for women from Iran. Robson groups that accounted for most of the caesarean sections were women who had previous caesarean section (36.5%); nulliparous women, induced or caesarean section before labour (26.2%); and nulliparous women, spontaneous labour (8.9%).ConclusionsThe caesarean section rate varied significantly between women from different countries of birth within the same region. Women from some countries of birth had the higher caesarean section rates in some Robson groups.     

Intercountry adoption in the new millennium; the ``quiet migration' revisited

Intercountry adoption is not usually seen as a matter for demographers, although articles in the International Migration Review have looked at international adoption as a migratory process. This article outlines the author's estimate of the number of intercountry adoptions world-wide, using data recorded by 18 receiving states in the 1990s. Data from selected receiving countries are used to estimate the number of adoptions from states of origin. Comparisons are made with data for 14 countries over the period 1980–89 collated by Kane (1993).The global estimate of at least 32,000 adoptions in 1998 is much higher than thenumbers usually cited and suggest a rise of fifty percent over the previous decade.Total numbers are dominated by adoptions to the United States and from China andRussia. However standardisation against population size or number of live birthssuggests that the highest rates among receiving states are to be found in Scandinavia,while the highest rates for states of origin are in countries of Eastern Europe, followedby Korea – countries typified by very low birth rates. The article ends with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the future of international controls and the implementation of the 1993 Hague Convention.     

Some characteristics and the transition of the population reproduction patterns of China's national minorities

The population reproduction patterns of China's minority groups differ to some extent from those of China as a whole. The population of some of the national minorities, such as the Mongolian, tibetan, and Hezhen nationalities, was actually decreasing before liberation. Cited as causal factors are the oppressive policies of past dynasties, lack of medical care in minority areas, and, in some instances, the religious imposition of strict celibacy on significant numbers of the male populaton. After libertation, reproductive patterns were characterized by a high birth rate and low mortality, resulting in a high growth rate. For example, in 1939-408 the birth rate among the Mongolian nationality in Inner Mongolia was 21.7, and the death rate was 28.3, resulting in a negative growth rate. In the period 1952-3, the birth rate rose to 41.5 while the death rate fell to 17.9 resulting in a growth rate of 23.6. This rapid transition is attributed to State policies of accelerated economic and cultural development in the minority areas, and the development of medical facilities. At present, a 3rd population pattern, characterized by a low birth rate, low mortality, and consequent low growth rate, is being seen among the national minorities. This is attributed to the leadership exhibited by minority cadres in family planning work. While advocating family planning, the State adopted a more flexible policy towards the minorities. A government directive stipulates that the specific rules can be drawn up according to the actual conditions by the nationality autonomous local authorities and the related provinces and autonomous regions. Family planning work has been achieved through the mobilization of the minority populations by the cadres, and by mass education on population theory and the relation between religious beliefs, marriage, and customs and family planning. Freedom of the minority people to preserve or reform their religious belief and customs has been absoluetely respected.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians.

In essence, the life table function e₀ was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960.

Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Fertility differentials as evidence of incipient fertility decline in a developing country

Abstract Age data from the 1960 and earlier censuses of Ghana allow the construction of child-woman ratios which appear to indicate the existence of a substantial urban-rural fertility differential. Plausible assumptions of urban-rural mortality differentials increase the apparent fertility differential. In this paper recently published data for Statistical Areas in the country's larger towns are used to demonstrate that one explanation for the fertility differential is almost certainly the enumeration of some females in the towns, while one or more of their surviving children were enumerated outside. Nevertheless, in 1960 the four largest towns exhibited birth levels which are likely to have been about 11% below those of the population in the surrounding regions. Roughly half the differential can be attributed to a general urban-rural differential and half to socio-economic differentials within the towns. It is shown that most fertility reduction within the towns may be explained by delayed female marriage, and that such delay is associated with extended education. It is also shown that amongst the higher socio-economic status groups a small part of the reduction can probably be attributed to the prevention of pregnancy within marriage, and that the making of such attempts is positively associated with extended education, urban birth, participation in first and monogamous marriages, Protestantism, and the holding of views about the harmful effect of high population growth rates on attempts to raise living standards. It is argued that these fertility differentials are evidence of some fertility decline among key groups in the population and that such declines are likely to become more widespread.     

甘肃省不同地区出生缺陷致病因素分析

为提高人口素质,预防出生缺陷的发生。我们根据甘肃地理特点及经济状况,按随机分层整群抽样方法,抽取当地出生的5岁内婴幼儿作为调查对象。以出生缺陷患儿为病例组,以同年、同性别、居住地相近的正常儿作为对照,对其家庭进行调查。结果显示甘肃省不同地区出生缺陷共有的易患因素为:母亲孕早期服药史;母亲孕早期感染史;父亲年龄在35岁以上亦是产生出生缺陷的危险因素。提示实施出生缺陷干预工程应大力进行孕前、孕早健康教育,深化优生指导,以达到降低出生缺陷发生率的目的。