关于构建人口均衡型社会的几点理论思考

"人口均衡型社会建设"是理论研究和政策发展的必然选择。人口均衡是指人口数量、结构、素质和分布等人口自身系统内部的均衡以及人口与经济、社会、资源、环境、国际竞争力等人口自身系统外的系统之间的外部均衡统称。人口均衡型社会是一种以人口均衡为特征的人类社会发展形态,与资源节约型社会、环境友好型社会共同构成了可持续发展社会建设的主体目标。当前人口均衡型社会建设面临诸多挑战,建设人口均衡型社会任重而道远。建议开启中国人口均衡发展行动方案,构建人口均衡发展指标体系,加强人口均衡型社会的理论研究,促进人口均衡型的公共政策组合体系建设,加大人口均衡型社会建设的宣传和培训力度。     

浙江省促进人口均衡发展的实践与思考

浙江在促进人口与经济社会资源环境协调可持续发展进程中,针对先发的人口不均衡问题不断探索应对,从较早较低层面的自觉均衡促进,到省级层面主动将人口生态体系建设纳入生态省建设;近年来进而上升到省级最高层面将人口均衡发展和人口均衡社会建设基本要求与资源节约型社会、环境友好型社会一并纳入全省生态文明建设,较好地实现了三型社会建设的有机结合;同时也明晰了未来人口计生工作战略定位、发展路径和科学目标;并着重阐述推进人口均衡发展、建设人口均衡型社会总体思路及对策建议。     

建设“人口均衡型社会”统筹解决人口问题——人口学会年会暨“人口均衡型社会”建设研讨会综述

中国人口学会在2010年7月3～4日召开了主题为＂促进人口长期均衡发展＂的年会,随后不久于7月10日再次召开＂人口均衡型社会建设＂研讨会,依据50多位人口学者的研究成果,首次提出了要全面实施可持续发展战略,建设＂人口均衡型、资源节约型、环境友好型＂＂三型＂社会的新观点。会议认为,人口、资源与环境三者是相互作用、相互影响的有机统一体,继提出建设资源节约型社会、环境友好型社会的目标后,提出建设人口均衡型社会,使原本就紧密联系的人口、资源、环境形成一个统一的＂三型社会建设＂目标势在必行。会议对人口均衡型社会建设的基本理论框架作了深入探讨,取得了积极成果。     

书讯

由李世奎、刘国辉撰写的《三型社会:人口均衡型、资源节约型、环境友好型社会研究》一书。于2011年12月由中国人口出版社出版。全书共十章,30万字。第一章问题的提出。作者认为,"三型社会"完善和发展了"两型社会",因为"三型社会"更加突出以人为本的执政理念,更加突出全面协调可持续发展,更加突出统筹兼顾和改善民生。第二章"人口均衡型社会"的理论阐释。作者认为,人口均衡型社会强调人口自身系统及其     

“幸福家庭促进计划”助推综合改革

家庭是社会的细胞，家庭和谐是社会和谐的基石。北京市平谷区人口计生委在开展“婚育文明靓桃乡·幸福家庭促和谐”活动基础上，总结已有经验，转变工作思路和方法，实施“幸福家庭促进计划”助推综合改革，拓展人口计生系统职能，推进公共服务均等化，促进人口问题统筹解决，构建人口均衡型、资源节约型和环境友好型社会。     

建立“三型·六新”文化传播模式 创新推进幸福家庭建设

近年来,重庆市北碚区人口计生委以文化建设为龙头,以城市、农村为阵营,充分发挥社会组织管理服务作用,强化计生家庭服务,推进幸福家庭建设,创新建立＂三型·六新＂（环境友好型、资源节约型、人口均衡型和新文化、新城市、新农村、新组织、新一代、新家庭）新型家庭人口文化建设模式,提升推进新型家庭人口文化建设水平,为促进人口计生事业发展营造了良好的文化环境。     

以十八大精神统领人口计生工作 为全面建成小康社会创造良好的人口环境——专访昆明市人口计生委党组书记、主任杨文惠

近年来,昆明市坚持科学发展观,坚决落实中央、省委关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定精神,抢抓新一轮西部大开发和＂桥头堡＂建设的重大机遇,立足新起点,围绕巩固和深化人口计生中心任务,为构建人口均衡型、资源节约型、环境友好型社会做出了新的努力。十八大对人口计生工作提出了新的战略决策,     

生态压力人口研究——兼析中国人口与环境关系的地区差异

环境友好型社会是一种人与自然和谐共生的社会形态,其核心内涵是人类的生产和消费活动与自然生态系统协调并可持续发展。建设环境友好型社会是人类的目标。本文尝试构建生态压力人口模型,从人口学角度对人口与环境的关系进行定量分析,并比较中国各省区生态压力的现状。我们认为,在研究人口与环境关系时,要充分考虑生产方式和生活方式等社会因素的影响,而且有必要进一步思考发展的内涵以及人生的目的。我们期望在人口研究中纳入新的概念,以推动人口研究的发展。     

推进人口文化建设创新发展

党的十七届六中全会作出了推进中国特色社会主义文化大发展大繁荣的战略部署,明确了努力建设社会主义文化强国的目标任务。人口文化是中国特色社会主义文化的重要组成部分,聚焦提高人的素质,关注人的自身生产、生存环境和生活质量,是促进社会文明进步和人的全面发展的软实力,也是甘肃省迈向文化大省的重要助力。各级人口计生部门应以十七届六中全会精神为指导,以高度的文化自觉和文化自信,科学总结和准确把握人口文化发展规律,推进人口文化创新发展,不断开创人口计生工作新局面,为建设人口均衡型、资源节约型和环境友好型社会贡献力量。     

乘势而上 创新发展 为滨海新区深入开发开放创造良好的人口环境

2013年是深入贯彻落实党的十八大精神、推动卫生和计生事业深入融台发展的关键一年,天津滨海新区以科学发展观均统领,立足新区实际,大力实施＂一二三凹＂的工作思路,充分发挥计卫融合先行先试的一个优势;加强目标责任制考核和功能区人口计生工作全覆盖两项管理;深化孕前优生健康检查、利益导向计生、卫生和人口计生信息化三项重点;实现宣传教育、基层基础、家佳推进计划、流动人口均等化四个提升,为滨海新区深入开发开放、实现国家战略定位,建设资源节约型、环境友好型、人口均衡型社会创造良好的人口环境。发挥＂一个优势＂探索人口计生工作新模式滨海新区政府成立之初,实行计卫融合的管理体制,运行三年多来,取得了初步成效,     

人口内部均衡发展研究——以西部地区为例

本文从量与质两个方面对人口内部均衡发展概念进行界定——在人口发展过程中,人口内部影响因素在发展数量、质量等方面逐步实现均等或协调,而这种均衡是暂时的、相对的,且不断的由低级均衡向高级均衡发展演替。在此基础上从人口发展、人口内部均衡度、人口内部均衡发展梯度、人口内部均衡可持续发展度四个视角构建人口内部均衡发展评价模型,并对西部地区进行实证分析。主要结论:(1)2000~2007年间,西部人口发展、人口内部均衡度及人口内部均衡可持续发展度呈增长态势,其增速高于同期全国水平,且西部各省间发展差距较大;(2)西部地区人口发展水平较低,位于0.48~0.59之间,属由启蒙后期进入过渡前期阶段;(3)西部人口内部均衡度低,位于0.35~0.42之间,属由轻度失调进入濒临失调阶段;(4)西部人口内部均衡可持续发展度较低,位于0.455~0.544之间,属过渡阶段。     

An objective criterion of coordination of population growth with economic development]

Coordination of population growth with economic development is the fundamental element for the development of society. Based on China's present condition and our future goal--to be a communistic society--per capita income was suggested to be the most important criterion. Because the primary requirements of a communistic society and the goal of our socialistic production are material abundance and a highly developed civilization, per capita income is also the best criterion to measure the level of our "Four Modernizations" program and the coordination of population with the economy. The economic development based on per capita income also has international significance, for it will indicate the excellence of our system and contribute our strength to world peace in the future. In order to continue increasing per capita income the primary goal is increased production. On the other hand, a rapid population growth delays economic development. A comparatively small difference in population growth rate (a decrease from 1.5% to .5%) leads to a large difference in total population and the investment in the population after many years (e.g. 20 to 40 years). For China's present condition the slower the population growth rate the better for our economic development and the faster the per capita income will increase.     

International migration: a global challenge

Trends in international migration are presented in this multiregional analysis. Seven of the world's wealthiest countries have about 33% of the world's migrant population, but under 16% of the total world population. Population growth in these countries is substantially affected by the migrant population. The migration challenge is external and internal. The external challenge is to balance the need for foreign labor and the commitment to human rights for those migrants seeking economic opportunity and political freedom. The internal challenge is to assure the social adjustment of immigrants and their children and to integrate them into society as citizens and future leaders. Why people cross national borders and how migration flows are likely to evolve over the next decades are explained. This report also presents some ways that countries can manage migration or reduce the pressures which force people to migrate. It is recommended that receiving nations control immigration by accelerating global economic growth and reducing wars and human rights violations. This report examines the impact of immigration on international trade, aid, and direct intervention policies. Although migration is one of the most important international economic issues, it is not coordinated by an international group. The European experience indicates that it is not easy to secure international cooperation on issues that affect national sovereignty. It is suggested that countries desiring control of their borders should remember that most people never cross national borders to live or work in another country, that 50% of the world's migrants move among developing countries, and that countries can shift from being emigration to immigration countries. The author suggests that sustained reductions in migration pressure are a better alternative than the "quick fixes" that may invite the very much feared mass and unpredictable movements.     

长三角地区国内移民的总效果及对区域城市结构的影响

国内移民有两种形式,第一是长三角地区内部与地区外部的相互移民,第二是长三角地区内部不同城市之间的移民,在此基础上研究城市群空间结构的基本状况和演变。研究表明,长三角地区的城市体系正逐步强化以上海、南京、杭州、苏州和宁波为核心的5个城市组团,并对长三角地区城市结构的未来演化做了初步分析,对区域发展的整体规划和区域移民政策提出一些分析思考。     

Birth Control and on the Way out of the Fourth Country

According to Xinhuanet, persons with severe disabilities and household register in Sichuan Province began to receive nursing subsidies suceessively.In 2014, Sichuan Province planned to allocate 500 million Yuan of nursing subsidies to 650 000 persons with severe disabilities in the province.     

The future of world population

Analysis of future population trends reveals a regional pattern of continued growth, dependent upon basic assumptions about demographic factors and the priority given to human rights, socioeconomic development, and global interdependence. Developing countries will account for 85-87% of world population growth, and the most rapid increase will occur in Africa. The optimum size of population remains debatable. Ecologist argue for a reduction to 1-2 billion people in order to be in balance with nature and maintain a high quality of life. A rapid, but plausible, fertility decline would result in a population of 10 billion by 2070. The lowest feasible UN projection is 8 billion. A 1-2 billion world population would not be feasible without drastic mortality increases and fertility declines. Population control is a highly charged and complex issue; feminists are not about to place responsibility for environmental degradation on women's excess fertility. The spirit of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights is that women have the right to determine family size with personal integrity and freedom rather than suffer coercion for the rights of society. Family planning is a necessary ingredient for achieving the goal of desired family size. The quality of life may be undermined by upholding human rights, without recognition of the context of socioeconomic development and global interdependencies. Global economic conditions, political crises, and environmental degradation can undermine even the best national development efforts. The most difficult task ahead is addressing priorities and forming a consensus. Human rights, socioeconomic conditions, and global interdependencies must be satisfied in a mutually beneficial way. When national and global goals conflict, a compromise must be reached. There are many unknowns. The challenge is to "identify a set of policies that will stabilize world climatic conditions, promote economic development, enhance the quality of life, and respect human rights." Investment in human capital, such as education and health, will help women to avoid unwanted pregnancies. Improving the status of women is key to socioeconomic development, human rights, and global interdependencies.     

人口容量与适度人口的热力学解释

对于地球的人口容量问题,人口学者曾做过许多尝试,并提出了不同版本的人口容量阙值。本文在借鉴前人的研究成果基础上,把生物圈的能量流动分为外部能量流动和内部能量流动,并在回顾人类社会发展历程中,提出人类社会的发展源自内能流能量的增加和人类对内能流能量使用效率的提高。进而又得出了人口容量和适度人口的热力学模型,及其热力学含义。     

论“三关爱”理念与构建和谐社会的关系

长春市人口和计划生育委员会提出并落实了“三关爱”的工作理念。“三关爱”既是人口和计划生育系统为构建社会主义和谐社会所做的努力,又是和谐社会应有之义和重要内容。     

全面建设小康社会中的人口问题(下)

全面建设小康社会,必须充分考虑伤口因素,考虑未来人口的变动发展趋势及存在的主要问题。未来20年面临的主要人口问题可概括为八个方面:控制人口数量增长,稳定低生育水平;制定科学的就业战略,妥善解决就业问题;加快人口城市化进程;建立一个既能满足老年人口需要,又同全面建设小康社会能力相适应的养老保障体系;谋求人口性别平衡;提高人口质量,科教兴国;增加西部人力资本积累;实现人口、资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。