Occupational careers and mortality of elderly men

This article presents findings from an analysis of occupational differentials in mortality among a cohort of males aged 55 years and older in the United States for the period 1966-1983. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Men, we construct event histories for 3,080 respondents who reach the exact age of 55. The dynamics that characterize socioeconomic differentials in mortality are analyzed by evaluating the differential effects of occupation over the career cycle. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard-model parameters show that the mortality of current or last occupation differs substantially from that of longest occupation, controlling for education, income, health status, and other sociodemographic factors. In particular, the rate of mortality is reduced by the substantive complexity of the longest occupation while social skills and physical and environmental demands of the latest occupation lower mortality.     

Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong province,China, 1975–2005

An analysis of data mainly from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census shows how fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 in the province of Guangdong has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic and social development. Guangdong's development since 1975 has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The analysis of the province's fertility trend from 1975 shows clearly the influence of fertility policy on the trend. The analysis also shows that economic development has brought about large changes in population composition by urban/rural residence, education, occupation, and migration status, which, together with large fertility differentials by these characteristics, have contributed substantially to Guangdong's fertility decline, in large part through changes in proportions currently married.     

Migration differentials by education and occupation: Trends and variations

The effects of education on current migration propensities in the United States are examined for each age group, and an estimate is made of how these age-specific differentials cumulate over a lifetime in determining the number of times that individuals at different educational levels can expect to move over the course of their lives. The independent effects of age, education, and occupation are also examined. Two other sections investigate trends in educational selectivity of migration in the United States and international comparisons of occupational differences in migration.     

Population projections: states, 1995 - 2025

All states will have more people in the future, especially in the south and west, while population aging occurs as the baby boomers age. This report identifies population changes projected to affect the US's 50 states and District of Columbia during 1995-2015. Basic assumptions for state population projections are presented with regard to population, births, deaths, net international migration, and net internal migration. The methodology used to produce the report is also described. Total population and net change is presented in tabular format for each state over the period. These data are used as the basic input to many federal, state, and local projection models which produce detailed statistics on education, economic factors, labor force, health care, voting, and other subjects. State differentials in fertility and mortality are also projected to widen, reflecting the concentration of race and ethnic groups with high fertility in some states and differential migration patterns.     

United Nations/World Health Organization Meeting on Socio-Economic Determinants and Consequences of Mortality,Mexico City, 19-25 June 1979

The objectives of the United Nations/World Health Organization (WHO) Meeting on Socioeconomic Determinants and Consequences of Mortality, held in Mexico City in June 1979, were the following: to review the knowledge of differential mortality and to identify gaps in the understanding of its socioeconomic determinants and consequences; to discuss the methodological and technical problems associated with data collection and analysis; to consider the policy implications of the findings presented and to promote studies on the implications of socioeconomic differentials in mortality on social policy and international development strategies; to formulate recommendations and guidelines for the utilization of the 1980 round of population censuses for in-depth studies of mortality differentials; and to stimulate national and international research on differential mortality. Participants discussed the state of knowledge of socioeconomic differentials and determinants of mortality and described the socioeconomic measures available, the methods of data collection and analysis used, and the findings themselves. A number of characteristics had been employed in the study of differential mortality, and these could be grouped under the following headings: occupation; education; housing; income, wealth; family size; and place of residence. The techniques or methods used to analyze mortality were direct and indirect methods, and these are examined. Inequalities in mortality were found to be closely associated with inequalities in social and economic conditions. Any effort to reduce or remove those inequalities would have to be based on a clear understanding of their causes and interrelationships in order to succeed. Participants indicated a desire to see a resurgence of mortality research, and some research suggestions are outlined.     

Migrant women of Mindanao: a differential profile from the 1983 National Demographic Survey

Researchers analyzed 1983 data on 3644 ever married 15-49 year old women living in Mindanao, a traditionally Muslim dominated area, in the Philippines to look at differentials in socioeconomic and demographic factors between migrant and nonmigrant women. When they controlled for other variables, differentials existed only for place of residence, religion, and education. Women living in urban areas were more likely to be migrants than nonmigrants (26.9% vs. 18.6%; p.01). Christians also tended to be migrants (92.3% vs. 7.7%; p/01). Yet the coefficient of the interaction between place of residence and Christian was strongly negative (p.01). Thus the odds of an urban resident being a migrant was reduced from 1.46-1.15 when considering Christians. Among Christians, differences in education between migrants and nonmigrants was small. On the other hand, the more educated a Muslim woman was the less likely she was a migrant (p.05). Further all socioeconomic differentials were consistently significant at either the 1% or 5% level for women who migrated 2 times, but not for primary migrants or return migrants. Women who migrated 3 times and those who migrated back to where they had lived earlier, but not to place of birth, were different than nonmigrants in terms of occupation and education only. In the early 1970s, armed conflicts between Muslims and Christians and between government troops and Muslim groups resulted in considerable displacement of families. Yet this conflict could only account for differentials between the 2 religious groups before 1975, but these data could not infer other reasons for migration. Researchers should explore these reasons. These result indicated that policy makers should focus on religious and place of residence differentials rather than migrant/nonmigrant differentials to promote equality among groups of women.     

Interdivisional migration differentials by education for groups of selected SMSA’S,United States, 1960

An attempt is made to investigate the educational differentials between various types of interdivisional migrants and nonmigrants in selected Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) of the United States. The analysis is carried out for four color-sex groups standardized for age. We have been able to identify three distinct patterns of migration differentials by education, that is, the J-shaped, the U-shaped, and the reverse J -shaped distributions. The tendency for migrants to be better educated than nonmigrants, by and large, has received support from the data we have analyzed. Wherever this tendency has not been confirmed, the main factors which, we believe, have influenced the differentials are the proportion of foreign-born whites, the geographic location of the places of origin and destination, and the differences in levels of educational attainment.     

Fertility among ethnic groups in the USSR

Thirty-six ethnie groups in the USSR are analyzed as to fertility differentials. The analysis is based on data from the 1959 nationwide census. To explain the fertility differentials found, ethnographic and sociological features of these groups are traced as a possible contributing factor. One of the poignant observations of the study is the fact that almost all ethnic groups with fertility above the median are those belonging to Moslem and Buddhist traditions. They are primarily located in the Central Asian republics, the Caucasus, and some parts of southern Siberia. Low fertility levels are by and large associated with the Eastern Orthodox Slavs and the Protestant Balts.Ratios of the number of children aged 0-9 to the number of women in the 20-49 age group are related to independent variables in the following order of importance: traditional religion, percentage of married women in the 20-49 age group, degree of literacy, male-female literacy differential, and sex ratio. The multiple correlation of 0.911 was obtained between the child-woman ratio and the first four of the most important independent variables. Sex ratio appeared significant only after the influence of the percentage of married women was eliminated from the analysis of multiple and partial correlations.The data suggest that the urban-rural differential is a non-linear function of the urban-rural migration. A more complete explanation of the divergence between urban and rural child-woman fertility ratios should be made the subject of separate studies.     

A stocks and flows approach to a theory of human migration with examples from past Irish migration

While scientists from many disciplines have contributed to the understanding of specific instances of human migration, there is need for a more general theory of voluntary migration. This paper presents and tests (using data on Irish migration) an economic model which could serve as the core of a multidisciplinary general theory. The economic model postulates earnings differentials between countries and regions as the proximate cause of the generation of a stock of migrants. As a result of institutional barriers, personal inertia, incomplete knowledge of earnings differentials, etc., not all of the existing stock becomes a flow of migrants in any year. Application of this model to migration between different countries or between the same countries at different time periods can be of value to scientists in many disciplines in isolating the underlying causes for differing rates of awareness of and response to earnings differentials by potential migrants.     

Urban determinants of racial differentiation in infant mortality

This study relates differential socioeconomic status between blacks and whites to racial differentiation in infant mortality rates. The basic assumption is that decreases in socioeconomic differentiation and related variables lead to decreases in the black—white infant mortality differential. A comparative approach based on aggregate measures of socioeconomic differentiation is utilized to compare sixty-one United States urban places. Path analysis shows that neonatal mortality differentiation is virtually unaffected by socioeconomic differentials while decreased racial differences in hospital births tend to increase neonatal mortality differentiation. In contrast, postneonatal differentiation is affected by socioeconomic differentiation, especially along the dimensions of income, education, and regional location. It is concluded that despite some suggestions that infant mortality is no longer responsive to socioeconomic factors, postneonatal differentation is affected by socioeconomic differentials when comparison is based on city units.     

Implications of socio-economic differentials in mortality for the health system

The premise of this discussion is that a systematic and continuous monitoring system is required to assemble data on the social indicator "socio-economic differences in mortality." Attention is directed to 5 particular types of data: secular trends; class differentials and age; linearity versus dichotomy; cross-cutting variables; and downward mobility and biological selection. The following 2 basic questions are examined and answered with a qualified "yes:" 1) does the health care system have any relevance to mortality differentials; and 2) can a health care system have any degree of meaninful autonomy from the overall social system. The policy implications of this analysis are reviewed in terms of the value content of medical education, the organization of the health care system, the emphasis on health, and the focus on the community. The concepts of control and power are analyzed as the key to socioeconomic differentials. Emphasis on differential exposures to "stressors" is rejected for what is termed "a sense of coherence" -- a global orientation which emerges, or fails to emerge among the lower classes, against the background of a high level of generalized resistance resources. Essentially the problem is that the constricted, emergency, powerless, and unpredictable character of lower social class existence prevents individuals of lower class and groups from being able to cope with stressors. Ways that the health care system can strengthen the sense of coherence of the lower classes include the following: a formal monitoring system in each society; caution in assuming that technological advances, environmental control, and health education are egalitarian in their consequences; and the need to identify high-risk groups within the lower classes.     

中国人口迁移流动的人力资本替代效应及影响分析

人口迁移流动是改变人口数量和人力资本空间分布格局的重要因素,人口迁移流动造成的人口数量和人力资本空间分布变化是否一致及其对区域经济社会发展的影响是一个需要更加深入研究的问题。本文针对我国人口流动过程中形成的人口素质结构转变进行理论思考和实证研究,探讨其形成的经济原因和造成的经济影响。相关数据显示我国高等教育群体和中等教育及以下群体长期以来一直处于净流向相同的状态,而2013-2015年以来各省陆续出现净流向相反的现象,形成了人口数量和人口素质的替代效应。高等教育人才的净流入地区是经济发达省份、地理条件优越省份以及少数民族自治区,北京、天津、上海、浙江、江苏以及广东省等三大都市圈内的六个省市的高等教育净流入人才占跨省高等教育净流入总人口的绝大多数。人口替代对当地的经济影响表现为三点:第一,改变当地劳动力资源禀赋结构,使高等教育群体及中等教育群体人数的比较优势发生变化;第二,改变地区平均受教育年限,影响地区科技创新能力;第三,拉大地区劳动力收入差距。据此提出两点政策建议:首先,地方省市可以通过市场化的产业结构调整手段控制相应的流动人口群体规模,而不必依靠限制人口流动的政策以及硬性提出人口调控目标来管理流动人口规模。其次,地方政府要做好地区经济规划以及定位,充分认识现在的人口替代对于未来地区创新能力以及劳动力收入差距的影响。     

Determinants of rural-urban migration in Ghana

Abstract In the 39 years between the 1921 and 1960 censuses, urban population in Ghana multiplied by nine while the population of the whole country only trebled. The major factor in urban growth was rural-urban migration and the reproduction of the migrants. In 1963 a survey consisting of a systematic sample of households in 45 rural centres, randomly chosen in Local Authority Areas selected in accord with the regional rural population distribution, reconstituted the rural population so as to include current migrants in the towns as well as those remaining in rural areas. For analysis 13,748 respondents were divided into 14 categories by ruralurban migration behaviour. At the same time a survey of urban population provided a check on rural-urban migration data. study of the propensity to migrate from rural to urban areas shows that this increases with the closeness of the rural area to a large town, the population size of the rural centre, the economic well-being of the rural household, the number of relatives already in the urban area, the individual's level of education, larger family size and probably lower birth rank, as well as exhibiting specific age and sex patterns. It is shown that only a minor role is played by occupation, conjugal condition and number of dependants. Various interrelations between these factors are discussed, and attention is given to the special importance of education in partially or wholly determining some of the other factors. Census data are used to demonstrate the effect of rural-urban migration in concentrating persons with certain characteristics in the urban areas.     

区域经济环境对工资性别差异的影响——基于多层模型的分析途径

本文建立了中国城镇居民工资方程的多层模型,并提出了相应的工资差异分解方法,用于分析区域经济环境对工资性别差异的影响。结果表明,在所有地区劳动力市场中,均存在明显的工资性别差异。虽然地区市场化水平的提高有助于个体工资水平的提升,但却导致工资性别差异的扩大;尽管地区失业率的上升将对个体工资获得产生不利影响,但却导致工资性别差异的缩小。市场化程度越高的地区,工资性别歧视越严重。因此,在市场化进程中,政府在努力发展教育和扩大就业的同时,应致力于实施公平的工资分配制度,将有助于缓解针对女性的工资歧视,进而有助于工资性别差异的缩小。     

Residence background and fertility in Greater Bombay

Abstract The residence background of wives who migrate to metropolitan areas plays an important role in determining their fertility. From the data collected during 1966, relating to 7,872 currently married women of Greater Bombay, an attempt was made to establish differentials in marital fertility by residence background of the wives. This was categorized into three groups - non-migrants, urban migrants and rural migrants. It was observed that rural migrant wives exhibited significantly higher fertility compared with the other two groups, and this was explained by their lower educational attainment. Between the non-migrant and the urban migrant wives the latter consistently showed lower fertility for all age groups up to 40, while there was a reversal in the age group 40 and above, where non-migrants exhibited lower fertility. The urban migrant wives showed a somewhat higher level of education, most likely on account of selectivity, compared to the non-migrants. However, presence of a sizeable number of Parsee wives, characterized by a distinct urban culture and considerably lower fertility, was largely responsible for the low fertility of the non-migrant wives in the age group 40 and above. The variable that has emerged as the most influential in creating fertility differentials is education of the wife, which is shown to be negatively associated with the level of fertility. Wife's education explains to a large extent the observed fertility differentials by residence background.     

Fertility differentials as evidence of incipient fertility decline in a developing country

Abstract Age data from the 1960 and earlier censuses of Ghana allow the construction of child-woman ratios which appear to indicate the existence of a substantial urban-rural fertility differential. Plausible assumptions of urban-rural mortality differentials increase the apparent fertility differential. In this paper recently published data for Statistical Areas in the country's larger towns are used to demonstrate that one explanation for the fertility differential is almost certainly the enumeration of some females in the towns, while one or more of their surviving children were enumerated outside. Nevertheless, in 1960 the four largest towns exhibited birth levels which are likely to have been about 11% below those of the population in the surrounding regions. Roughly half the differential can be attributed to a general urban-rural differential and half to socio-economic differentials within the towns. It is shown that most fertility reduction within the towns may be explained by delayed female marriage, and that such delay is associated with extended education. It is also shown that amongst the higher socio-economic status groups a small part of the reduction can probably be attributed to the prevention of pregnancy within marriage, and that the making of such attempts is positively associated with extended education, urban birth, participation in first and monogamous marriages, Protestantism, and the holding of views about the harmful effect of high population growth rates on attempts to raise living standards. It is argued that these fertility differentials are evidence of some fertility decline among key groups in the population and that such declines are likely to become more widespread.     

Male labor force participation revisited

This paper evaluates hypotheses which incorporate designated socioeconomic variables and male age specific incidences of labor force participation. Salient independent variables include education, net migration, unemployment, and earnings. The multiple regression method of analysis is utilized with 100 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas comprising the basic units of a cross-sectional analysis. Regression results generally substantiate hypotheses and concur with the findings of previous investigators. But, in contrast to earlier studies, education and net migration emerge as leading determinants of areal labor force patterns; and regression results for men in central age groups are impressive both in terms of the frequency of statistically significant relationships and size of coefficients of determination. These departures from the results of past research are possibly due to the implementation of a more meaningful and rigorous methodology.     

Some factors associated with Urban-Rural fertility differentials in Mexico

Abstract Warren C. Robinson and others have presented strong evidence that a substantial portion of the variation in urban-rural fertility differentials is attributable to variations in infant and child mortality when the child-woman ratio is the index of fertility. This paper focuses on the contributions of several additional factors in accounting for variations in urban-rural fertility differentials. 1960 census data for 23 urban and rural areas in Mexico are investigated by means of correlation analysis. City growth and literacy differentials are found to be significantly related to the size of the urban-rural fertility (child-woman ratio) differential, but their effect appears to be indirect, and brought about by their association with urban-rural differentials in the sex ratio at the reproductive ages, age at marriage, and the percentage married. The latter three factors are positively related to the size of the urban-rural fertility differential. City growth is inversely related to the magnitude of the fertility differential. This analysis suggests that changes in (urban) population composition may favour higher as well as lower urban fertility and thus affect the size of the urban-rural fertility differential. If this is true, it would appear that urbanization does not necessarily lead to lower total fertility (at least in its early stages), but may lead to the modification of certain demographic characteristics which formerly favoured lower urban fertility. The long-run effects of urbanization are more difficult to assess, but it is suggested that migrants to urban areas may require several generations to manifest lower fertility. This would constitute an additional factor favouring higher urban fertility. The possible contribution of changing mortality conditions is also considered.     

Spousal Mobility and Earnings

An important finding in the literature on migration has been that the earnings of married women typically decrease with a move, while the earnings of married men often increase with a move, suggesting that married women are more likely to act as the “trailing spouse.” This article considers a related but largely unexplored question: what is the effect of having an occupation that is associated with frequent migration on the migration decisions of a household and on the earnings of the spouse? Further, how do these effects differ between men and women? The Public Use Microdata Sample from the 2000 U.S. decennial census is used to calculate migration rates by occupation and education. The analysis estimates the effects of these occupational mobility measures on the migration of couples and the earnings of married individuals. I find that migration rates in both the husband’s and wife’s occupations affect the household migration decision, but mobility in the husband’s occupation matters considerably more. For couples in which the husband has a college degree (regardless of the wife’s educational level), a husband’s mobility has a large, significant negative effect on his wife’s earnings, whereas a wife’s mobility has no effect on her husband’s earnings. This negative effect does not exist for college-educated wives married to non-college-educated husbands.In the substantial literature on the relationship between migration and earnings, an important finding has been that the earnings of married women typically decrease with a move, while the earnings of married men often increase with a move. This is consistent with the notion that married women are more likely to act as the “trailing spouse” or to be a “tied mover.” This article considers a related but largely unexplored question: what is the effect of having an occupation that is associated with frequent migration on the migration decisions of a household as well as on the earnings of the spouse? And how do these effects differ between men and women?There are three reasons to move beyond the previous analysis of household moves to studying the effect of occupational mobility on migration and earnings. First, the analysis of changes in employment and earnings of movers is only part of a broader discovery concerning the extent to which the earnings of husbands and wives are affected by the ability to move to or stay in optimal locations. Second, the existing literature relies on the comparison of movers to nonmovers. Even longitudinal comparisons will not completely eliminate the bias in this comparison because movers likely differ in their earnings growth, not just the level of premigration earnings. Third, the methods used in the literature often do not adequately adjust for occupational differences between men and women, so it is difficult to know whether the current findings in the literature are the result of differences in jobs held by men and women, or rather are the result of differences in influence on location decisions. The question pursued in this article is, controlling for an individual’s own occupation and the earnings potential in that occupation, how does the migration rate in a spouse’s occupation affect one’s own labor market outcomes?This article uses the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) from the 2000 U.S. decennial census to calculate mobility measures by occupation and education class. Mobility is measured by the fraction of workers who, in the past five years, have either (a) changed metropolitan area or (b) if in a nonmetropolitan area, changed Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA).¹ Using the sample of white, non-Hispanic married couples between the ages of 25 and 55 in the 2000 census, I perform migration and earnings analyses separately for four groups of couples: both have college degrees (“power couples”), only the husband has a college degree, only the wife has a college degree; and neither has a college degree.Results indicate that the mobility rates in both the husband’s and wife’s occupation affect the household migration decision, but mobility in the husband’s occupation matters considerably more. Comparison analysis for never-married individuals indicates that among individuals with college degrees, never-married men and women are equally responsive to occupation mobility in their migration behavior.The earnings analysis uses occupation fixed-effects and average wage in occupation-education class to control for substantial heterogeneity in earnings potential. For couples in which the husband has a college degree, the wife’s mobility has no effect on the husband’s earnings, regardless of the wife’s education. However, the husband’s mobility has a large, significant negative effect on the wife’s earnings. This negative effect does not exist for couples in which only the wife has a college degree.