A social change index-an objective means to discern and measure the relative current social condition of cities,towns, and their sub-communities

A social change index has been developed in response to a social planning need to have a means whereby the current social pathology of communities may be identified on an objective basis. The index is derived from a combination of social indicators which are reported by census tract by the State of Rhode Island on an annual basis. The index is particularly useful for the inter-decennial years because high mobility rates, particularly in central cities (up to 80% in some areas of these cities), cause census data to be unrepresentative in many instances for these years. In addition to serving as a means to identify social needs and problem areas, the index may be used for priority ranking of need for social program services, program monitoring, and program evaluation. The State of Rhode Island is expected to institute a Committee on Social Statistics among whose primary responsibilities will be to encourage state agencies to publish their social statistics by census tracts in their annual reports. It is presumed, consequently, that a larger number of current social indicators will be available to be included in the social change index and increase its accuracy.     

City differences in racial occupational differentiation: A note on the use of odds ratios

This note considers whether city differences in racial occupational distribution are best investigated using measures of nominal differentiation or measures of inequality, and argues that measures of inequality are better suited for testing the prevailing theories of race differences in occupation distribution. It also defends the Index of Net Difference and the Index of Dissimilarity (and other measures of inequality used in previous research) from the criticism that they are flawed because they are sensitive to city differences in occupational structure. Additionally, it explores a new approach for investigating city differences in occupational inequality within the log-linear framework. The logical and empirical arguments offered support the conclusions that racial occupation differences reflect racial stratification, and that variation in racial occupation differences across cities is best understood as the product of city differences in the severity of racial stratification. Thus, future research in this area should continue to focus on measures of inequality rather than measures of nominal differentiation until there are sound theoretical and empirical reasons for conceptualizing race differences in occupational distribution in terms of nominal differentiation.     

Metropolitan school desegregation: Impact on racial integration of neighborhoods in the United States

Research on school desegregation in U.S. cities has focused on the issues of white flight and the potential for racial residential integration of segregated neighborhoods. There is also concern over the effectiveness of a metropolitan desegregation plan for racial integration as against a plan which encompasses only the central city of urban areas. This paper deals with a court-ordered metropolitan school desegregation plan in New Castle County, Delaware. The method used is an examination of 602 small geographic areas (grids); the objective is to examine the extent of residential out-migration of students from the central city and to examine whether there is any tendency toward racial residential integration in the county. Evidence suggests (a) that the central city grids are retaining white students but losing black students and (b) that the level of racial segregation of suburban neighborhoods is not declining.We conclude from preliminary data that with each succeeding year, internal relocation, rather than moves to private school and out-migration from the metropolitan area, will be the major characteristic of student redistribution. If this is the case, the extent to which intra-system relocation results in racially integrated and stable neighborhoods should be a major research and policy focus.     

Identifying components comprising neighborhood quality of life

This research identified factors affecting neighborhood quality of life. A total of 140 men and women from diverse groups throughout the San Francisco Bay area participated. Each person completed a critical incident questionnaire reporting specific events within the neighborhood that affected his or her quality of life. Analysis of 695 incidents resulted in 17 factors within five main areas: (a) Environmental and Physical Conditions, (2) Economic Conditions, (3) Facilities and Services, (4) Political Conditions, and (5) Personal Characteristics and Interpersonal Relationships. The approach and results can be used to study impacts of specific social policies on neighborhoods and their residents.     

Residential redistribution of socioeconomic strata in metropolitan areas

This paper is a preliminary report on an ecological analysis of recent changes in the spatial distribution of socioeconomic strata within 363 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (or substituted units) in the United States. The central hypothesis guiding the study is that certain population subgroups in and around the larger urban areas are shifting their residential locations in predictable directions. Changes in the distribution of educational classes between the central city (or cities) and their surrounding rings from 1950 to 1960 are traced by using census data. A special feature of the analysis is the inclusion of 163 "lquasi-metropolitan areas" centered on cities that had 25,000-50,000 inhabitants in 1960.The initial results indicate that residential redistribution according to "social class" is occurring in all these metropolitan areas and that the pattern of change varies systematically. Regional differences are pronounced, and, as prior research has suggested, age of the city and population size appear to be important factors. The percent of adults in the high school and college categories in the rings of older and larger metropolitan areas generally increased disproportionately compared to the central cities. A variety of patterns of change, however, occurred among the younger and smaller metropolitan areas.Subsequent analyses will include (a) alternative methods of controlling color and regional location, (b) other measures of the independent and dependent variables used here, and (c) a multivariate approach to the problem of identifying and assessing the explanatory power of additional independent variables (including population growth, the over-all rate of decentralization, annexation history, economic base, and the character of the ring). The extent as well as the direction of change will also be investigated. Finally, the feasibility of quantifying an "evolutionary sequence" in the distribution of social classes will also receive attention.     

Patterns of residential segregation within a metropolitan ghetto

The residential segregation of families by income and by stage of the family life cycle within Milwaukee’s black community resembles in both pattern and degree that in the white community. The greater the difference in income, the more dissimilar are the distributions by census tract. Dissimilarity is greater between younger couples without children and older couples with children than between any other pair of family types defined by husband’s age and presence of children. However, segregation by income was substantially greater than by family type in 1960. The bases of selectivity of blacks in“changing” areas of the city, where the proportion black is still relatively low, and of whites in the“suburban” areas adjoining the city are similar. Families in the higher income groups and couples with children are over-represented in these areas. It would appear that given the pressures of limited housing space in the inner core of the black community, given the fact that certain amenities are not available in that area, and given the economic and social barriers which restrict the movement of blacks into the suburbs, the changing areas must function as“suburbs” for the black community.     

Fear of crime and behavioral restrictions in urban and suburban neighborhoods

Variations in fear of crime and behavioral restrictions were explored within city and suburban neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area. A random telephone survey (n=1,803) gathered information on fear and behavioral restrictions, other crime-related experiences and perceptions, perceptions of the neighborhood physical and social environment, and demographic characteristics. These data were supplemented by merging contextural information (from census and other archival sources) about each respondent's place of residence to the data set. Hierarchial step-wise regression analyses were performed separately for the city and suburban residents. Sets of predictor variables were found that accounted for more than 25 percent of the variance in the criterion measures. Implications of these findings for policy makers and future research are discussed.     

Should occupational codes be obtained from census data or from retrospective survey data in studies on occupational health?

The aim of this study was to assess the quality of occupational history information obtained via retrospective interview questions by comparison with occupational information for the same individuals obtained via a number of censuses. Moreover, morbidity patterns were investigated for different occupational exposure categories that were constructed either on occupational data gathered retrospectively or on data gathered longitudinally through censuses. The study population consisted of 6764 men and 2104 women who were interviewed within the Swedish Survey on Living Conditions. Census data on occupation from 1960, 1970 and 1975 were used for comparison. There was high level of agreement between the two data bases for occupational categories containing workers who were stable in their occupations. The correspondence was better for women. Prevalence rates for different long-term illnesses were almost the same for the categories, no matter which of the data bases was used for constructing the categories. Thus, we have found that self-reported work histories might be a useful way of controlling for occupational exposures in the past.     

Intra-urban migrant lifelines: A spatial view

The term intra-urban migrant lifeline refers to the sequence of residential movements made by a household within a single urban area. This study examines spatial aspects of lifelines and the relationship between such aspects and the spatial structure of the city. Spatial aspects are defined in terms of distance, directional, and sectoral biases. A variety of techniques for identifying such biases are critically discussed. The approach applied is one that transforms the spatial pattern of migrations so as to accent the spatial biases in question. Measurement of the biases is accomplished by application of standard ellipse techniques to the transformed distributions. Data for the study traces migrant lifelines for a sample of households in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for the period 1950 through 1965. Differences in locational and social-economic characteristics of households are shown to be reflected in the spatial morphology of their respective lifelines. In general the migrant lifelines show a fairly restricted distance bias, a directional bias towards the center of the city, and a low degree of sectorality. This is in contrast to expectations generated by previous work on lifelines. Reconciliation of the findings here with previous findings employs a model that considers both the space preferences of intra-urban migrants and the set of vacancies available to them.     

Occupational Stratification of Hispanics,Whites, and Blacks in Southern Rural Destinations: A Quantitative Analysis

Since the 1990s, many rural communities in the Southern US have experienced an unprecedented influx of Latino migrants. Some research undertaken on such “new Hispanic destinations” suggests that the newcomers tend to assume low-status jobs shunned by non-Hispanic residents and thus form a segmented labor market, but other work indicates that they heavily compete with natives (particularly African Americans) for less-skilled positions. Drawing on data from the 2000 census and 2009–2011 American Community Survey, this paper examines patterns of occupational stratification between Latino, white, and black men in the rural South to identify whether Hispanic economic relations in the area are better characterized by segmentation or competition. Specifically, occupational dissimilarity indexes and status scores are calculated to map the groups’ relative economic positions in the rural portions of five Southeastern states home to fast-growing nonmetro Latino populations: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Consistent with the segmentation hypothesis, the results reveal that Latinos are highly occupationally dissimilar from non-Hispanic whites and blacks and rank significantly below both in mean occupational status. Standardization of the stratification measures shows that Hispanics’ labor market isolation and disadvantage can be substantially accounted for by their lower average levels of human capital and US citizenship.     

Urbanization and de-urbanization of the black population before the civil war

Pre-Civil War black urbanization is examined using data from federal census records, 1790 to 1860. The black population is found to be as urban as the white population initially, but its urbanization underwent relative decline in the last two decades before the Civil War. Foreshadowing current patterns, the northern black population was heavily concentrated in the largest cities, and the free black population was the most urban of all groups. The timing of black urban decline in the North, as well as regional and size of place differences in that decline, suggest that both competition with immigrants in major eastern seaboard cities and the passage of the Fugitive Slave Law in 1850 contributed to black de-urbanization. For the South, the explanations of black urban decline proposed by Wade, Conrad and Meyer, Goldin, and Bonacich are evaluated, and Bonacich’s split labor market theory is judged to be most consistent with the demographic trends.     

A test of the utility of social indicators for behavioral health service planning

Given current imperatives for more effective, responsive, and economical government, policy planners and administrators are seeking increasing assistance from social scientists. Here the usefulness of social indicators to the processes of policy planning and implementation in the delivery of mental health, alcohol and drug abuse services is investigated to determine whether social indicator data can contribute to more effective policy planning. In a two part study, the relationship between social indicators and Specific sources of these data were: population total, subdivided by geographic area and race (Caucasian, Black, and Other, which in Arizona is virtually all Native Americans) from the 1975 special census; population by age and ratio of dissolutions to marriages from the Arizona Statistical Review for 1977; crime rates from the Arizona State Justice Planning Agency for 1975; and cause of death rates from the Bureau of Vital Statistics, Arizona Department of Health Services for 1975. Subjective measures of psychological well-being were not available for the internal validational component of the study. state wide service utilization rates and The Negative Affect Scale measures the individual's level of anxiety, worry, loneliness, and sadness, and is associated with other measures that have been used in epidemiological studies to identify persons with psychological difficulties. The Psychiatric Screening Inventory assesses an individual's level of psychiatric impairment as evidenced by the frequency with which he or she reports having experienced each of the 22 psychological and psychosomatic symptoms on the scale. It has also been used in numerous epidemiological studies to investigated levels of impairment among various populations. The Positive Affect Scale reflects the degree to which the person is involved with, interested in, and experiences control over his or her physical and social environment. Active involvement with the world and frequent social participation are considered to be conducive to the experience of positive affect. The Perceived Quality of Life Scale measures the degree to which the persons is satisfied with the quality of his or her life. The score on this scale is a composite of the respondent's level of satisfaction in different areas of life such as standard of living, health, personal functioning, and family life. The greater the satisfaction in these separate areas, the higher will be the individual's overall evaluation of the quality of his or her life. psychological well-being in the community is examined. Both objective and subjective social indicators were studied. Both types of indicators were found to be useful and complementary in identifying service needs and states of well-being in the community.     

Constraints to the fulfillment of residential preferences among Texas homebuyers

A 1983 survey of Texas homebuyers reveals a high degree of mismatch between their preferred and actual residences. Analysis indicates that the logit of fulfilling residential preference is largely determined by the type of area preferred and the occupation and age of the homebuyer. Mismatch is most common among homebuyers preferring a suburban location, less so for those preferring nonmetropolitan residences, and lowest among people preferring central cities. Occupation as a social structural variable also affects homebuyers ’ chance of fulfilling residential preference. Professionals are more likely to fulfill their residential preferences than persons in other occupations. Finally, younger persons suffer a higher degree of residential mismatch than older persons.     

Residential Segregation in the Mid-Sixties

Special censuses conducted by the Bureau of the Census at the request and expense of local governments provide current statistics for many large cities which are compared with corresponding data from the1960 Census. An analysis was made of the changes in the racial composition of the cities, and of the areas within the cities (defined by census tracts) which had a high concentration of Negro population in 1960 for ten cities of 100,000 or more population at mid-decade.As in the 1950-60 period, Negroes continue to move into the central cities of metropolitan areas while white persons continue to move out to the suburbs at a faster rate, and this results in net declines in the populations of the cities. The proportion of nonwhite persons living in areas of high Negro concentration has remained about the same or increased slightly in a majority of the cities, while in a few (such as Cleveland, Rochester, and Raleigh) this proportion has declined; that is, relatively more Negroes in these cities now live outside the ghetto neighborhoods. When the racial composition of the ghettos is examined, however, a higher proportion of the residents are now Negro when compared to 1960 in each of the ten cities.Thus, the concentration of Negroes in ghetto areas has shown little change, but the trend of white persons moving away from the Negro neighborhoods, either to other parts of the cities or to the suburbs, has increased sharply, and this has tended to polarize the Negro and white populations within large cities.     

Residential segregation in urbanized areas of the United States in 1970: An analysis of social class and racial differences

Sociologists and urban commentators often portray metropolitan areas as highly segregated by social class and race. We measured the extent of socioeconomic residential segregation in urbanized areas of the United States in 1970, determined whether cities were as segregated as suburban rings, and compared levels of socioeconomic and racial residential segregation. We found moderate levels of residential segregation of socioeconomic groups. Levels of social class segregation varied little from one urbanized area to another and were about the same in central cities and suburban rings. Racial residential segregation was much greater than the segregation of social classes within either the black or white communities. The extent of racial residential segregation does not vary by educational attainment, occupation, or income.     

The Philippine social indicators project

The Social Indicators Project of the Development Academy of the Philippines (1974) aimed to formulate a measurement system capable of objectively depicting periodic changes in national development. It identified the following as basic Philippine social concerns: (1) Health and Nutrition, (2) Learning, (3) Income and Consumption, (4) Employment, (5) Non-human Productive Resources, (6) Housing, Utilities, and the Environment, (7) Public Safety and Justice, (8) Political Values, and (9) Social Mobility. This list is unique in considering political welfare. A multi-disciplinary research team selected 30 major indicators pertinent to these concerns. Although the majority are already encompassed by the Philippine statistical system, certain new indicators were proposed, including disability due to illness, human capital created by schooling, net beneficial product, families below a food threshold, an index of housing adequacy, an air pollution index for Greater Manila, an index of perceived public safety, indices of political mobility and efficacy, and indices of occupational mobility and perceived social mobility. A survey of 1000 households was used to demonstrate the feasibility of gathering needed new primary data, particularly those attitudinal in nature. An analysis of time series showed that certain aspects of Philippine welfare have been notably improving, but that others have been worsening; the direction of national progress can only be ascertained by admitting value-judgments on the relative importance of the several components of welfare.     

Population Trends as a Counterweight to Central City Decline, 1950–2000

The share of metropolitan residents living in central cities declined dramatically from 1950 to 2000. We argue that cities would have lost even further ground if not for demographic trends such as renewed immigration, delayed childbearing, and a decline in the share of households headed by veterans. We provide causal estimates of the effect of children on residential location using the birth of twins. The effect of veteran status is identified from a discontinuity in the probability of military service during and after the mass mobilization for World War II. Our results suggest that these changes in demographic composition were strong enough to bolster city population but not to fully counteract socioeconomic factors favoring suburban growth.     

Forecasting first grade public school enrollment by neighborhood

The purpose of this study is to develop an alternative method to the traditional cohort survival technique for long-run forecasting of public school enrollment by small area. In the model presented, the difference between first grade enrollment and resident births lagged six years is viewed as a function of new housing, busing, and the percent of lagged births that are white. Least squares regression analysis was used to test the model on data in four neighborhoods in New York City for the period 1958–1969. While the model fits the historical data rather well, its usefulness for long-run forecasting is diminished in areas experiencing substantial structural change.     

The household composition coefficient: A method for measuring inequality in the distribution of childrearing demands among households

A method for measuring distributional inequality was applied to household composition data to document and analyze the trend in the distribution of children and adult among households. Lorenz Curve methodology was used to depict the departure of child-adult living arrangements from absolute equality. Households and children were ranked by a child-adult ratio to capture the trend toward smaller families, single-parent families, and childless households. A Gini Coefficient was calculated to mathematically represent the relative degree of inequality in the distribution of childrearing demands from 1940 to 1980. The results evidence a trend of growing inequality, particularly since 1960, in the distribution of childrearing demands. The measure has application as a social indicator to document the extent to which responsibilities for daily care of children are distributed through the population.     

Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach

The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due to complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) poverty risk estimates are published with a 2–3 years delay. This paper presents a method that can be used to estimate (“nowcast”) the current at-risk-of-poverty rate for the European Union (EU) countries based on EU-SILC microdata from a previous period. The EU tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD is used for this purpose in combination with up to date macro-level statistics. The method is validated by using EU-SILC data for 2007 incomes to estimate at-risk-of-poverty rates for 2008–2012 and to compare the predictions with actual EU-SILC and other external statistics. The method is tested on eight EU countries which are among those experiencing the most volatile economic conditions within the period: Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania.