Proportion estimation in mixtures with covariates

Linear maps of a single unclassified observation are used to estimate the mixing proportion in a mixture of two populations with homogeneous variances in the presence of covariates. with complete knowledge of the parameters of the individual populations, the linear map for which the estimator is unbiased and has minimum variance amongst all similar estimators can be determined. Plug-in estimator based on independent training samples from the component populations can be constructed and is asymptotically equivalent to Cochran's classification statistic V* for covariate classification; see Memon and Okamoto (1970). Under normality assumptions, asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the plug-in estimator is available. In the absence of covariates, our estimator reduces to that suggested by Walker (1980) who has investigated the problem based on information on large unclassified samples from a mixture of two populations with heterogeneous variances. In contrast, distribution of Walker's estimator seems intractable in moderate sample sizes even with normality assumption.     

Estimation of the Entropy Rate of a Countable Markov Chain

We consider here ergodic homogeneous Markov chains with countable state spaces. The entropy rate of the chain is an explicit function of its transition and stationary distributions. We construct estimators for this entropy rate and for the entropy of the stationary distribution of the chain, in the parametric and nonparametric cases. We study estimation from one sample with long length and from many independent samples with given length. In the parametric case, the estimators are deduced by plug-in from the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter. In the nonparametric case, the estimators are deduced by plug-in from the empirical estimators of the transition and stationary distributions. They are proven to have good asymptotic properties.     

A note on stratification and gain in precision in estimating diversity from large samples

Several indices of entropy have been suggested in the literature as weighted diversity measures of a population with respect to a classification process. Among them, Shannon's entropy and Havrda -Charvát's non-additive entropies of order a, have been exhaustively used.

When the population is finite but too large to be censused, the diversity with respect to a given classification process must be estimated from a sample.

In this note, on the basis of an asymptotic study of the sample indices in the stratified random sampling, we are going to confirm that when we deal with large samples one can guarantee a gain in precision from stratified random over simple random sampling. This gain becomes considerable when the ‘inaccuracy" (as intended by Kerridge and Rathie and Kannapan) between the frequency vector in each stratum and that in the whole population, varies greatly from stratum to stratum.     

Multistage plug—in bandwidth selection for kernel distribution function estimates

The use of a kernel estimator as a smooth estimator for a distribution function has been suggested by many authors An expression for the bandwidth that minimizes the mean integrated square error asymptotically has been available for some time. However, few practical data based methods ior estimating this bandwidth have been investigated. In this paper we propose multisstage plug-in type estimater for this optimal bandwith and derive its asymptotic properties. In particular we show that two stages are required for good asymptotic properties. This behavior is verified for finite samples using a simulation study.     

Consistency and asymptotic distribution of the Theil–Sen estimator

In this paper, we obtain the strong consistency and asymptotic distribution of the Theil–Sen estimator in simple linear regression models with arbitrary error distributions. We show that the Theil–Sen estimator is super-efficient when the error distribution is discontinuous and that its asymptotic distribution may or may not be normal when the error distribution is continuous. We give an example in which the Theil–Sen estimator is not asymptotically normal. A small simulation study is conducted to confirm the super-efficiency and the non-normality of the asymptotic distribution.     

Local Adaptivity of Kernel Estimates with Plug-in Local Bandwidth Selectors

In non-parametric function estimation selection of a smoothing parameter is one of the most important issues. The performance of smoothing techniques depends highly on the choice of this parameter. Preferably the bandwidth should be determined via a data-driven procedure. In this paper we consider kernel estimators in a white noise model, and investigate whether locally adaptive plug-in bandwidths can achieve optimal global rates of convergence. We consider various classes of functions: Sobolev classes, bounded variation function classes, classes of convex functions and classes of monotone functions. We study the situations of pilot estimation with oversmoothing and without oversmoothing. Our main finding is that simple local plug-in bandwidth selectors can adapt to spatial inhomogeneity of the regression function as long as there are no local oscillations of high frequency. We establish the pointwise asymptotic distribution of the regression estimator with local plug-in bandwidth.     

Variance estimation of the Buckley–James estimator under discrete assumptions

The Buckley–James estimator (BJE) is a widely recognized approach in dealing with right-censored linear regression models. There have been a lot of discussions in the literature on the estimation of the BJE as well as its asymptotic distribution. So far, no simulation has been done to directly estimate the asymptotic variance of the BJE. Kong and Yu [Asymptotic distributions of the Buckley–James estimator under nonstandard conditions, Statist. Sinica 17 (2007), pp. 341–360] studied the asymptotic distribution under discontinuous assumptions. Based on their methodology, we recalculate and correct some missing terms in the expression of the asymptotic variance in Theorem 2 of their work. We propose an estimator of the standard deviation of the BJE by using plug-in estimators. The estimator is shown to be consistent. The performance of the estimator is accessed through simulation studies under discrete underline distributions. We further extend our studies to several continuous underline distributions through simulation. The estimator is also applied to a real medical data set. The simulation results suggest that our estimation is a good approximation to the true standard deviation with reference to the empirical standard deviation.     

Re-parameterization of multinomial distributions and diversity indices

It is shown in this paper that the parameters of a multinomial distribution may be re-parameterized as a set of generalized Simpson's diversity indices. There are two important elements in the generalization: (1) Simpson's diversity index is extended to populations with infinite species; (2) weighting schemes are incorporated. A class of unbiased estimators for the generalized Simpson's biodiversity indices is proposed. Asymptotic normality is established for the estimators. Both the unbiasedness and the asymptotic normality of the estimators hold for all three cases of the number of species in the population: infinite, finite and known, and finite but unknown. In the case of a population with a finite number of species, known or unknown, it is also established that the proposed estimators are uniformly minimum variance unbiased and are asymptotically efficient.     

Estimating variances of strata in ranked set sampling

In RSS, the variance of observations in each ranked set plays an important role in finding an optimal design for unbalanced RSS and in inferring the population mean. The empirical estimator (i.e., the sample variance in a given ranked set) is most commonly used for estimating the variance in the literature. However, the empirical estimator does not use the information in the entire data over different ranked sets. Further, it is highly variable when the sample size is not large enough, as is typical in RSS applications. In this paper, we propose a plug-in estimator for the variance of each set, which is more efficient than the empirical one. The estimator uses a result in order statistics which characterizes the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the rth order statistics as a function of the population CDF. We analytically prove the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. We further apply it to estimate the standard error of the RSS mean estimator. Both our simulation and empirical study show that our estimators consistently outperform existing methods.     

Improved Prediction Intervals and Distribution Functions

Abstract.  The plug-in solution is usually not entirely adequate for computing prediction intervals, as their coverage probability may differ substantially from the nominal value. Prediction intervals with improved coverage probability can be defined by adjusting the plug-in ones, using rather complicated asymptotic procedures or suitable simulation techniques. Other approaches are based on the concept of predictive likelihood for a future random variable. The contribution of this paper is the definition of a relatively simple predictive distribution function giving improved prediction intervals. This distribution function is specified as a first-order unbiased modification of the plug-in predictive distribution function based on the constrained maximum likelihood estimator. Applications of the results to the Gaussian and the generalized extreme-value distributions are presented.     

Goodness-of-fit test based on correcting moments of modified entropy estimator

In this paper, we first propose a new estimator of entropy for continuous random variables. Our estimator is obtained by correcting the coefficients of Vasicek's [A test for normality based on sample entropy, J. R. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 38 (1976), pp. 54–59] entropy estimator. We prove the consistency of our estimator. Monte Carlo studies show that our estimator is better than the entropy estimators proposed by Vasicek, Ebrahimi et al. [Two measures of sample entropy, Stat. Probab. Lett. 20 (1994), pp. 225–234] and Correa [A new estimator of entropy, Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 24 (1995), pp. 2439–2449] in terms of root mean square error. We then derive the non-parametric distribution function corresponding to our proposed entropy estimator as a piece-wise uniform distribution. We also introduce goodness-of-fit tests for testing exponentiality and normality based on the said distribution and compare its performance with their leading competitors.     

An asymptotic expansion of Wishart distribution when the population eigenvalues are infinitely dispersed

Takemura and Sheena [A. Takemura, Y. Sheena, Distribution of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of Wishart matrix when the population eigenvalues are infinitely dispersed and its application to minimax estimation of covariance matrix, J. Multivariate Anal. 94 (2005) 271–299] derived the asymptotic joint distribution of the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of a Wishart matrix when the population eigenvalues become infinitely dispersed. They also showed necessary conditions for an estimator of the population covariance matrix to be tail minimax for typical loss functions by calculating the asymptotic risk of the estimator. In this paper, we further examine those distributions and risks by means of an asymptotic expansion. We obtain the asymptotic expansion of the distribution function of relevant elements of the sample eigenvalues and eigenvectors. We also derive the asymptotic expansion of the risk function of a scale and orthogonally equivariant estimator with respect to Stein’s loss. As an application, we prove non-minimaxity of Stein’s and Haff’s estimators, which has been an open problem for a long time.     

On Parametric Bootstrapping and Bayesian Prediction

Abstract.  We investigate bootstrapping and Bayesian methods for prediction. The observations and the variable being predicted are distributed according to different distributions. Many important problems can be formulated in this setting. This type of prediction problem appears when we deal with a Poisson process. Regression problems can also be formulated in this setting. First, we show that bootstrap predictive distributions are equivalent to Bayesian predictive distributions in the second-order expansion when some conditions are satisfied. Next, the performance of predictive distributions is compared with that of a plug-in distribution with an estimator. The accuracy of prediction is evaluated by using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Finally, we give some examples.     

A comparison of estimators of the geographical relative risk function

The geographical relative risk function is a useful tool for investigating the spatial distribution of disease based on case and control data. The most common way of estimating this function is using the ratio of bivariate kernel density estimates constructed from the locations of cases and controls, respectively. An alternative is to use a local-linear (LL) estimator of the log-relative risk function. In both cases, the choice of bandwidth is critical. In this article, we examine the relative performance of the two estimation techniques using a variety of data-driven bandwidth selection methods, including likelihood cross-validation (CV), least-squares CV, rule-of-thumb reference methods, and a new approximate plug-in (PI) bandwidth for the LL estimator. Our analysis includes the comparison of asymptotic results; a simulation study; and application of the estimators on two real data sets. Our findings suggest that the density ratio method implemented with the least-squares CV bandwidth selector is generally best, with the LL estimator with PI bandwidth being competitive in applications with strong large-scale trends but much worse in situations with elliptical clusters.     

On the bootstrap in cube root asymptotics

The authors study the application of the bootstrap to a class of estimators which converge at a nonstandard rate to a nonstandard distribution. They provide a theoretical framework to study its asymptotic behaviour. A simulation study shows that in the case of an estimator such as Chernoff's estimator of the mode, usually the basic bootstrap confidence intervals drastically undercover while the percentile bootstrap intervals overcover. This is a rare instance where basic and percentile confidence intervals, which have exactly the same length, behave in a very different way. In the case of Chernoff's estimator, if the distribution is symmetric, it is possible to bootstrap from a smooth symmetric estimator of the distribution for which the basic bootstrap confidence intervals will have the claimed coverage probability while the percentile bootstrap interval will have an asymptotic coverage of 1!     

An asymptotic confidence interval for the process capability index Cpm

Abstract

The use of indices as an estimation tool of process capability is long-established among the statistical quality professionals. Numerous capability indices have been proposed in last few years. C_pm constitutes one of the most widely used capability indices and its estimation has attracted much interest. In this paper, we propose a new method for constructing an approximate confidence interval for the index C_pm. The proposed method is based on the asymptotic distribution of the index C_pm obtained by the Delta Method. Under some regularity conditions, the distribution of an estimator of the process capability index C_pm is asymptotically normal.     

Estimation using plug-in of the stationary distribution and Shannon entropy of continuous time Markov processes

A natural way to deal with the uncertainty of an ergodic finite state space Markov process is to investigate the entropy of its stationary distribution. When the process is observed, it becomes necessary to estimate this entropy.We estimate both the stationary distribution and its entropy by plug-in of the estimators of the infinitesimal generator. Three situations of observation are discussed: one long trajectory is observed, several independent short trajectories are observed, or the process is observed at discrete times. The good asymptotic behavior of the plug-in estimators is established. We also illustrate the behavior of the estimators through simulation.     

Grenander functionals and Cauchy's formula

Let ${\widehat{f}}_n$ be the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a decreasing density. Grenander characterized this as the left‐continuous slope of the least concave majorant of the empirical distribution function. For a sample from the uniform distribution, the asymptotic distribution of the L₂‐distance of the Grenander estimator to the uniform density was derived in an article by Groeneboom and Pyke by using a representation of the Grenander estimator in terms of conditioned Poisson and gamma random variables. This representation was also used in an article by Groeneboom and Lopuhaä to prove a central limit result of Sparre Andersen on the number of jumps of the Grenander estimator. Here we extend this to the proof of the main result on the L₂‐distance of the Grenander estimator to the uniform density and also prove a similar asymptotic normality results for the entropy functional. Cauchy's formula and saddle point methods are the main tools in our development.     

Trace of the Variance-Covariance Matrix in Natural Exponential Families

In this article, we introduce the notion of trace variance function which is the trace of the variance-covariance matrix. Under some conditions, we prove that this trace variance function characterizes the Natural Exponential Family (NEF). We apply this characterization in order to estimate the distribution which belongs to some NEFs. Therefore, we introduce the estimator of this trace variance function. We give the asymptotic properties of this estimator. Finally, we illustrate our results using a simulation study.     

Semi-Parametric Estimation for Forward–Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

In this article, we suggest a semi-parametric estimation for Forward–Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDE), with a linear generator. Both the nonparametric and parametric estimators are computationally feasible and the asymptotic properties are standard in the sense of normality. Although there is a plug-in nonparametric estimator in parametric estimation, the high order kernel, under-smoothing and bias correction are not required. Some simulation studies are also given to illustrate our methods.