United Nations/United Nations Fund for Population Activities Expert Group Meeting on Population-Development Modelling,Geneva, 24-28 September 1979

The objective of the Expert Group Meeting on Population-Development Modelling, held in Geneva during September 1979, was to make a critical review of existing population-development models and to assess their practical value in policymaking and planning. Of particular concern was the treatment of population-related issues in these models and their adaptability to the needs of developing countries in terms of such factors as conceptual and methodological problems and the availability of accurate and diverse data and technical and computer infrastructure. Several aspects of the problems were examined at the meeting. 6 areas were covered: the value of population-development model-building, achievements of existing population-development models, population-development submodels, the identification of research priorities concerning population-development interrelationships, perspective and alternative approaches to integrating demographic components into existing development planning frameworks, and an institutional framework for building and using population-development models. The Working Group developed and adopted a set of recommendations for future research and actions and these are presented. The recommendations made are in the following areas: role of population-development models, types of population-development models, institutional framework, and priorities for future research. The following were included among the recommendations: 1) efforts to contrast and apply models of various types relating to social, economic, and demographic processes should be encouraged; and 2) a need exists to support the development of research-oriented models.     

The United Nations on the Demographic Impact of the AIDS Epidemic

A report prepared by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and released in Geneva on 27 June 2000 (just prior to the XIIIth International AIDS Conference held in Durban, South Africa) updates estimates of the demographic impact of the epidemic. It characterizes AIDS in the new millennium as presenting “a grim picture with glimmers of hope”—the latter based on the expectation that national responses aimed at preventing and fighting the disease are in some places becoming more effective. According to the report, which emphasizes the considerable statistical weaknesses of its global estimates, the number of people living with HIV/AIDS in 1999 was 34.3 million (of which 33.0 million were adults and 1.3 million were children under age 15; slightly less than half of the adults affected, 15.7 million, were women). Deaths attributed to AIDS in 1999 amounted to 2.8 million, bringing the total since the beginning of the epidemic to 18.8 million. These figures represent moderate upward revisions of earlier UN estimates shown in the Documents section of PDR 25, no. 4. The revised estimate of the number of persons newly infected with HIV in 1999 is, in contrast, slightly lower: 5.4 million, of which 4.7 million were adults and 2.3 million were women. An excerpt from the 135‐page Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic, focusing on countries in the worst‐affected area, sub‐Saharan Africa, is reproduced below. (Figures shown have been renumbered.)     

The United Nations on the Implementation of the Cairo Program of Action

Progress and challenges in implementing strategies on population and development were the focus of a Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly that met at UN headquarters in New York, 30 June-2 July 1999. Participating at the Assembly were representatives of nearly 180 governments, with some 150 of these, and a number of observers and nongovernmental organizations, making statements. The delegates reviewed and appraised the implementation of the Program of Action adopted at the International Conference on Population and Development held at Cairo in 1994. The main topics discussed concerned women's rights, reproductive health issues, and abortion. The Assembly's work culminated in the adoption of a 106-paragraph statement titled Key actions…, formally issued as United Nations Document A/S-21/5. The document is reprinted below in full. It affirms the comprehensive approach to population and development issues articulated at the Cairo conference and identifies needs for further action. Also reproduced below is the address delivered at the Special Session by Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations. According to a popular lapidary characterization of the program adopted at the 1994 conference, that program concluded that “population is not about numbers.” Thus the Secretary-General's address is particularly notable for a clear affirmation of the importance of the quantitative dimension of the population issue. “[W]e have to stabilize the population of this planet. Quite simply, there is a limit to the pressures our global environment can stand.”     

National Population and Family Planning Commission Successfully Hosted a Side Event during the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development

On the afternoon of June 19, National Population and Family Planning Commission (NPFPC) hosted a side event, entitled Population Prospect and Sustainable Development-Population and Development in China and PADIS-INT,during the United Nations Conference on Sustainable     

仍在快速增长中的世界人口

1970~1975年世界人口出生率为30‰,2000~2005年预计降到21‰,但仍面临人口增长的压力。较发达地区人口增长率已经很低,甚至出现负增长,而最不发达国家人口增长率最高,人口规模迅速扩大。事实表明,经济越不发达的地区,人口增长速度越快。世界人口大国(亿人以上)已从1950年4个国家增加到目前的11个国家,其人口之和占世界总人口的一半以上。根据预测,到2050年世界人口大国将增加到18个。不同国家和地区的生育水平将决定着世界人口发展速度。     

Conceptualizing discourses on environmental refugees at the United Nations

This paper conceptualizes the absence of multilateral protection for environmental refugees. It does this by critically scrutinizing interviews conducted with United Nations ambassadors and senior diplomats in 2004 (n = 45) in a number of key policy-making locations. These interviews reveal that an absence of policy on environmental refugees has been reproduced by discursive politics at the United Nations. The reasons for which are explored here in this paper, and include shifting attitudes towards the role of multilateralism and environmental issues generally.     

The United Nations on Levels and Trends of International Migration and Related Policies

Issues of international migration are drawing increasing attention not only from governments and their national constituencies but also from international organizations, notably from various components of the United Nations system. Better understanding of the causes of the flows of international migration and their relationship with development and answers to policy questions arising therefrom are, however, hampered by scarcity of up‐to‐date and reliable quantitative information concerning international migration. As a step toward remedying this gap, in March 2003 the Population Division of the United Nations issued a report, presumably the first of a series, titled International Migration Report 2002. A review essay by David Coleman discussing this publication appears in the book review section of the present issue of PDR. The bulk of this 323‐page document presents statistical profiles for more than 200 countries and territories and also for various regional aggregates. These summaries provide data or estimates (when available or feasible) on population, migrant stock, refugees, and remittances by migrant workers for 1990 and 2000, and on average annual net migration flows for 1990–95 and 1995–2000. These profiles also offer characterization of government views on policies relating to levels of immigration and emigration. According to the report, the total number of international migrants—those residing in a country other than where they were born—was 175 million in 2000, or about 3 percent of the world population. In absolute terms, this global number is about twice as large as it was in 1970, and exceeds the 1990 estimate by some 21 million. The introductory chapters of the report discuss problems in measuring international migration and summarize major trends in international migration policies since the mid‐1970s. An additional chapter reproduces a recent report of the Secretary‐General to the United Nations General Assembly on international migration. Reproduced below is much of the “Overview” section of the report (pp. 1–5). In addition to its published form (New York: United Nations, 2002, ST/ESA/SER.A/220), the full report is accessible on the Internet: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ittmig2002/ittmigrep2002.htm     

世界人口发展健康指数构建研究

本研究构建了世界人口发展健康指数,并对包括中国在内的46个国家(地区)的人口发展健康状况进行了排名。人口发展健康指数不仅直观地反映和比较了各国(地区)人口发展健康度现状,还可以对人口发展健康状况进行预警,从而可以作为各个国家(地区)制定人口相关政策的重要参考。     

Demographic Prospects 2000–2050 According to the 2000 Revision of the United Nations Population Projections

The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat biennially issues revised versions of detailed population estimates and projections for over 200 countries, territories, and regional aggregates of the world. Highlights of the latest set, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, were released 28 February 2001 (Draft ESA/P/WP.165). This 76‐page document is available at « http://www.un.org/esa/population/wpp2000.htm ». The full results of the projections will be published in a series of three volumes, currently under preparation. Key findings of the projections, as presented in the Executive Summary of the document, are reproduced below.