Migration and the Spatial Concentration of Poverty1

Current Population Survey data are used to estimate the effects of migration of the poor and nonpoor on the spatial concentration of poverty among five categories of counties defined by county poverty rates and, separately, among nonmetropolitan high-poverty areas, central city high-poverty areas, and other areas. During the 1981–1984 period studied, migration patterns of both the poor and nonpoor consistently reinforced pre-existing poverty concentrations. High migration rates of the poor into and out of high poverty counties suggests an equilibrium condition. Implications for theory, research, and policy are discussed.     

Immigrant Gateways and Hispanic Migration to New Destinations1

Our understanding of the underlying demographic components of population change in new Hispanic destinations is limited. In this paper, we (1) compare Hispanic migration patterns in traditional settlement areas with new growth in emerging Hispanic destinations; (2) examine the role of immigration vis‐à‐vis domestic migration in spurring Hispanic population redistribution; and (3) document patterns of migrant selectivity, distinguishing between in‐migrants and non‐migrant Hispanics at both the origin and destination. We use several recent datasets, including the 1990 and 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (which include new regional geocodes), and the 2005 and 2006 files of the American Community Survey. Our results document the widespread dispersion of the Hispanic population over the 1990–2006 period from established Hispanic gateways into new Hispanic areas and other parts of the country. Nearly one‐half of Hispanic net migration in new destinations comes from domestic gains. In contrast, both established and other Hispanic areas depend entirely on immigration, with each losing domestic migrants to high growth areas. Migrant flows also are highly differentiated by education, citizenship, and nativity. To fully understand the spatial diffusion of Hispanics requires a new appreciation of the complex interplay among immigration, internal domestic migration, and fertility.     

The Recent Revival of Widespread Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Areas of the United States1

Abstract Population growth was widespread in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas of the United States during the early 1990s. More than 64 percent of the 2,277 nonmetro counties gained population between 1990 and 1992, compared with only 45 percent in the 1980s. The nonmetro population still grew at a slower pace than did the metropolitan population, but the gap was much narrower than during the 1980s. Net migration gains accounted for 43 percent of the total estimated nonmetro population increase of 879,000 between 1990 and 1992. These findings suggest it is premature to conclude that the renewed population growth in nonmetro areas first noted in the 1970s has ended.     

Migration,Time, and Religioethnic Identification Among U.S. Jews1

This article examines changes between 1985–1990 and 1995–2000 in relationships between migration and religioethnic identification among U.S. Jews. The results of multivariate analyses of the 1990 and 2000 National Jewish Population Surveys show that Jewish background characteristics have lost their significance as determinants of internal migration and, especially, migration across state boundaries. Concurrently, migration no longer constitutes a serious threat to group continuity and erstwhile negative effects on major religious and social behaviors have disappeared. When the two surveys were integrated into one data set, it was found that “time” enhances the inclination of Jews to move and strengthens their religious and ethnic commitments (though not their commitments to informal Jewish networks). The results are discussed in reference to three competing perspectives of migration‐identification relationships—“selectivity,”“disruption,” and “heightening”—and in the wider theoretical context of religious and ethnic processes in the contemporary United States.     

Population movement in Zhejiang province,China: the impact of government policies

"China's urbanization policies include strict control of permanent migration to large cities, but encourage the growth of small cities and towns. Concurrently, temporary migration is widely permitted as a way to stimulate commerce. Data for Zhejiang province indicate that permanent mobility is largely directed toward urban places, that towns gain more than cities and that rural areas experience migration losses. Permanent migrants to urban places are selective of the better educated. Temporary migration is also urban directed but greater in volume than permanent migration, and places considerable strain on urban infrastructure. Government policies are a key to understanding the migration streams and migrant characteristics. The considerable net movement into cities suggests that strict control of city growth is more difficult to achieve than envisaged by policymakers." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, p. 386).     

Return and Onwards Migration in Canada and Australia: Evidence From Fixed Interval Data

Analysis of return and onwards migration flows has typically relied upon lifetime migration definitions. Both Canada and Australia have collected data on usual place of residence both one and five years prior to the census, which provide a richer source of information on return and onwards moves. Utilizing data drawn from complementary sources, this article examines the incidence, composition and spatial patterning of return and onwards migration at the state and provincial level in Canada and Australia over the period of 1986–1990–1991. Results indicate a high degree of symmetry in these processes between the two countries. While many of the findings are consistent with those derived from analysis of lifetime data, we find that one quarter to one third of return moves were to the original (1986) dwelling, indicating a planned return rather than the failed migration as previous literature has often assumed.     

The Great Recession and the Allure of New Immigrant Destinations in the United States

In the 1990s, the immigrant population in the United States dispersed to non‐traditional settlement locations (what have become known as “new immigrant destinations”). This paper examines whether the allure of new destinations persisted in the 2000s with a particular focus on the internal migration of the foreign‐born during the recent deep recessionary period and its aftermath. Three specific questions motivate the analysis. First, are immigrants, much like the U.S.‐born population, becoming less migratory within the country over time? Second, is immigrant dispersal from traditional gateways via internal migration continuing despite considerable economic contraction in many new destination metropolitan areas? Third, is immigration from aboard a substitute for what appears to be declining immigrant internal migration to new destinations? The findings reveal a close correlation between the declining internal migration propensity of the U.S.‐born and immigrants in the last two decades. We also observe parallels between the geographies of migration of native‐ and foreign‐born populations with both groups moving to similar metropolitan areas in the 1990s. This redistributive association, however, weakened in the subsequent decade as new destination metropolitan areas lost their appeal for both groups, especially immigrants. There is no evidence to suggest that immigration from abroad is substituting for the decline in immigrant redistribution through internal migration to new destinations. Across destination types, the relationship between immigration from abroad and the internal migration of the foreign‐born remained the same during and after the Great Recession as in the period immediately before it.     

Female‐Headed Families and Poverty in Rural America*

Abstract Employing data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 March supplements of the Current Population Surveys, this study examines changing household and family structure in metro and nonmetro areas and corresponding changes in poverty, emphasizing female‐headed families with children under age 18. We also pay particular attention to the structure and economic conditions of subfamilies with children during this period. Household and family structure in suburban metro and nonmetro areas were quite similar by 2000. In contrast, families and households in nonmetro and metro central city areas were similar in their high prevalence of poverty. Finally, the risk of female‐headed families and subfamilies with children living in poverty is highest for nonmetro residents, and their individual characteristics suppress rather than account for this disadvantage. This pattern persisted across the decades studied, despite economic growth during the 1990s.     

Intercountry Adoption Flows from Africa to the U.S.: A Fifth Wave of Intercountry Adoptions?

This article addresses whether there is the beginning of a fifth wave of intercountry adoptions (ICAs) from Africa to the United States (U.S.). ICAs function as a “quiet migration” of children [ Weil (1984) International Migration Review 18(2):276–293; Lovelock (2000) International Migration Review 34 (3):907–949; Selman (2002) Population Research and Policy Review 21:205–225]. U.S. Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) data from 1971 to 2009 indicate that there were 421,085 ICAs to the U.S. Tarmann (2003:2 , http://www.prb.org/Articles/2003/InternationalAdoptionRateinUSDoubledinthe1990s.aspx?p=1 ) reported that in 2000, U.S. parents completed one ICA for every 200 births. In the past, top sending countries have followed flows from Europe, South America, and Asia. INS data are used to analyze the increase in the intercountry adoptees from Africa from 1996 to 2009. Similar Hague Convention data are used for the comparison of the number of ICAs from Africa to other top recipient nations. Demographic and economic data are used to support the suggestion that ICAs, similar to other migratory flows, are from developing to developed countries.     

Post‐Socialist Restructuring and Population Redistribution in Hungary*

Abstract This research focuses on pathways by which national level macro‐social transformations are transmitted to local communities. Our case is Hungary where we examine the relationship between post‐socialist economic restructuring, widespread industrial dislocations, and urban‐rural migration. Using secondary data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) and survey data from a study of 49 villages in 4 distinct rural regions, we demonstrate that post‐socialist population deconcentration involved both suburbanization and net movement to villages, especially villages that are located relatively close to cities. Contrary to our expectations, movement to villages was from nearby settlements, not from large industrial centers. Moreover, migrants to villages were substantially better off than longer term village residents in terms of their human capital and attachment to the labor force. Consequently, post‐socialist population deconcentration is not contributing to rural poverty as feared by some scholars.     

Land markets and migration trends in Tanzania: A qualitative‐quantitative analysis

While migration has been found to enhance welfare across a range of settings, most of the literature focuses on rural‐to‐urban migrant flows. Using a unique dataset from north‐western Tanzania, this article probes an important, yet overlooked, link between land markets and rural‐to‐rural migration. A mixed‐methods approach is used to discern how these two forces are intertwined in village life. Results indicate that household decisions to migrate are particularly influenced by the ease of market‐based land access in their new communities. This suggests that labour mobility may be facilitated through the development of a well‐functioning land market.     

Rural Out‐migration in the Drought Prone Areas of Ethiopia: A Multilevel Analysis1

This article presents a multilevel analysis of rural out‐migration in Ethiopia over the 1984–1994 period. Using a recent household survey carried out in the drought prone rural areas of Ethiopia, discrete‐time hazard models are used to examine the impact of individual, household and community factors on migration. Incorporating a life‐course and the “new economics of migration” perspectives, our findings suggest that rural out‐migration in these areas can be viewed as a function of individual, household and community characteristics. We find that mobility of people for schooling in the impoverished rural communities is minimal. Migration of both sexes was possible mainly through marriage, although females tend to depart their residences more than males. Our findings also reveal substantial period effects on out‐migration trends.     

The More Things Change the More They Stay the Same: Mexican Naturalization before and after Welfare Reform1

During the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in the both the number and the rate of Mexican naturalization. Some have interpreted this increase as a response to changes in welfare and immigration policy surrounding the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), which limited public assistance to non‐citizens, and the 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA), which may have increased the incentive to naturalize by making it more difficult for legal immigrants to sponsor their relatives for entry to the United States. This article uses Current Population Survey data from 1994/95 and 2000/01 to examine how the social and economic determinants of naturalization may have changed in order to provide insight into which explanation for the increase in naturalizations is most relevant. We find that while the proportion of Mexican immigrants who are naturalized increased during the 1990s, their determinants have remained largely the same with the exception that those with noncitizen spouses have become more likely to be naturalized in the post‐reform period. This suggests that a more cautious interpretation be taken about the relationship between the increase in naturalizations and welfare and sponsorship restrictions, particularly when regarding Mexican immigrants.     

Flows of People and Knowledge between Italy and Australia

This article analyses 20 years of bilateral peoples' flows between Italy and Australia using a unique set of data collected by Australia's Department of Immigration and Citizenship. This period has witnessed substantial changes in the composition of migration between the two countries. Against a historical background where migration is mostly composed of unskilled Italians relocating to Australia, the past two decades have seen a progressive increase in the arrival of young and highly skilled/qualified Italians on a short‐term basis. Conversely, there has been an increase in older Australians moving to or visiting Italy for work. Such changes have affected the bilateral skill flows, whose relevance has increased as globalization forces have made international transport easier and cheaper. Australia remains a “magnet” for Italians, and, unlike the historical origin of Italy's early immigrants, it now enjoys a net inflow of highly skilled labour.     

Gender Asymmetry in Family Migration: Occupational Inequality or Interspousal Comparative Advantage?

This paper examines gender inequality in the determinants of job‐related long‐distance migration among married dual‐earner couples during the 1980s and 1990s. The analysis tested the structural explanation, which attributes gender asymmetry in family migration to structural inequality in the labor market, and the comparative advantage explanation derived from relative resource theory. The analysis used individual‐ and family‐level data from 5,504 Panel Study of Income Dynamics families, occupation‐level data from the 1980–2000 U.S. Decennial Censuses Integrated Public Use Micro Samples, and discrete‐time event history models. Gender differences in the determinants of family migration were not explained by gender differences in occupational characteristics, but the results partially support the relative resource theory by illustrating the conditioning influence of interspousal comparative advantage.     

Irregular Workers or Ethnic Kin? Post‐1990s Labour Migration from Bulgaria to Turkey

This paper addresses the invisibility of the post‐1990s irregular migration flows from Bulgaria to Turkey in the literature despite the increasingly significant number of such migrants. I suggest that this invisibility stems partially from a problem of classification that has to do with implicit suppositions about ethnicity and migration. The post‐1990s Turkish immigrants from Bulgaria are not specified in accounts of irregular migrant flows directed towards Turkey since they are assumed to belong to the category of ethnic “return” migrants: Because of their ethnic identity as Turkish, all Turkish migrants from Bulgaria tend to get considered as part of the intermittent “return” migration waves from Bulgaria, the most notable and well‐known of these being the fight of more than 300,000 Turks in 1989. However, while the ethnic affiliation of the post‐1990s migrants from Bulgaria renders them invisible as irregular migrants within scholarly migrant typologies, the same ethnic affiliation does not necessarily work to their advantage when it comes to their legal and social reception in Turkey. Based on ethnographic fieldwork that prioritizes micro‐level analysis from below, the paper demonstrates that the self designated ethnic affiliation of these migrants, counterpoised against their social marginalization as “the Bulgarian” domestics, heightens the paradoxes of belonging and affects migration strategies. The paper thus underscores the significance of ethnic affiliation as a factor that needs to be adequately taken into account in describing the present and in assessing the future of this particular migratory pattern.     

Divorce Chinese Style

This study investigated divorce during China's social and economic transformation period from 1970 to 2012. Specifically, the study examined the trend development of divorce and demonstrated how marriage formation type and individual socioeconomic characteristics were associated with the likelihood of divorce across time. Event‐history analysis was applied to longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2012 waves). The results showed a threefold increase in divorce from the pre‐1990s to the 1990s. Surprisingly, the trend shifted to a plateau toward the 2000s. When cohabitation was in its rapidly diffusing stage in the 1990s, individuals who cohabited prior to marriage had a substantially higher likelihood of divorce. As cohabitation became increasingly common in the 2000s, its effect on divorce weakened. The role of socioeconomic characteristics in divorce also varied across time. This study enriches the knowledge of family dynamics in contemporary Chinese society.     

Relationships between Economics,Welfare, Social Network Factors,and Net Migration in the United States

By using economics, welfare and social network factors as frames of reference, this study aims to explore the relationship between these three factors and net migration to various US states. Adopting related variables collected from official aggregate data, this study first utilizes Logit Regression analysis to draw out seven variables that best explain net migration to the various states, then employs these variables in LISREL analyses to build a model explaining the factors influencing net migration to the various US states. Concretely, this research obtained the following findings: (1) the seven variables ‐‐ the average rate of net migrants of 2002–2005, Medicaid, federal aid, employment rate, non‐poverty population rate, and SSI subsidy ‐‐ all significantly affected (p < 0.01 or p < 0.05) net migration in 2006; (2) the main influences on net migration for the various states are, from highest to lowest, social network, economic, and welfare factors. More specifically, a better explanation is that, through the social network factor, economic and welfare factors exert an increased influence on the net number of migrants; and (3) as for the influence of social network factors on the number of net migrants, the social network factor for the previous year was found to best explain domestic migration flows, while the social network factor for the previous three‐to‐four years best explained international migration flows.     

Emigration,Housing Conditions,and Social Stratification in China1

Using data from the 1995 China 1% Population Sample Survey, this article examines the impact of international migration on housing conditions in China. We find that international migration affects housing conditions differently in cities, towns, and rural areas. In rural areas, the impact of emigration on housing conditions is seen primarily through the increase of housing space, whereas in cities the impact of emigration on housing conditions is mainly reflected in the improvement of facilities. Although having a cadre in the household continues to be an important factor, international migration has begun to challenge, and even rival, this legacy of social stratification in China.     

China's Experience in Population Control: The Elusive Model

Abstract

Professor Tien's review article is the first in a series of such articles on public policy documents. As we indicated in the last issue (Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 1–2), our aim is to compile—over a period of time—a sort of overall report card on the quality of such documents by submitting them to the scrutiny of academic professionals. Our instructions to Professor Tien were two. First, he was to examine the information contained in the report. Is it the best information available? Secondly, we asked Professor Tien to assess the logical connection between the report's data and its conclusions. We think that he has tackled both points well in his comments.

Professor Tien is well qualified to write a review article on a report on techniques of family planning in China. He is the author of the recent China's Population Struggle (Ohio State University Press, 1973), as well as many articles on the same theme. [Eds.]