基于DA插补法的线性回归模型系数估计值的模拟研究

Data Augmentation(DA)插补法是最常用的MCMC多重插补法之一。利用模拟方法研究基于DA插补法的线性回归模型的系数估计值,分析估计值的统计性质受无回答机制、无回答率和插补重数的影响。模拟结果显示:在完全随机无回答机制下,选择较小插补重数常常会得到较好的回归系数估计值;在随机无回答机制下,随着无回答率增大而选择更大插补重数往往会得到更好的回归系数估计值;在非随机无回答机制下,选择更大插补重数并不一定总会得到更好的回归系数估计值。     

A modified two-stage randomized response model for estimating the proportion of stigmatized attribute

The survey related to stigmatized characteristics leads to the non-response problem if it is conducted according to classical (direct) methods, especially, developed for non-sensitive issues; therefore, it needs to be applied appropriate survey methodology to get a reliable response from respondents in incriminating issues. Randomized response model is one of the most recent methods which is attracting the attention of survey practitioners to deal with the problems of non-response because it protects the privacy of individuals in order to acquire the truthful response. The present work proposes a new two-stage randomized response model to get rid of misleading response or non-response due to the stigmatized nature of attribute under the study. The proposed randomized response model results in the unbiased estimator of population proportion possessing the sensitive attribute. The properties of the resultant estimator have been studied and empirical comparisons are performed to show its dominance over existing estimators. Suitable recommendations have been put forward to the survey practitioners.     

An effective estimation strategy for population mean under random non-response situations in two-phase successive sampling

This paper presents a modified exponential type estimation strategy for the current population mean in the presence of random non-response situations in two-occasion successive sampling under two-phase set-up. The properties of the proposed estimators have been examined with the assumption that numbers of sampling units follow a distribution due to random non-response. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with the estimators designated for the complete response situations. Empirical studies are carried out to show the dominance nature of the proposed estimators over the estimator defined for complete response situations. Appropriate recommendations have been made to the survey practitioners/researchers for their real-life practical applications.     

Inference about the Regression Parameters Using Median-Ranked Set Sampling

The ranked set samples and median ranked set samples in particular have been used extensively in the literature due to many reasons. In some situations, the experimenter may not be able to quantify or measure the response variable due to the high cost of data collection, however it may be easier to rank the subject of interest. The purpose of this article is to study the asymptotic distribution of the parameter estimators of the simple linear regression model. We show that these estimators using median ranked set sampling scheme converge in distribution to the normal distribution under weak conditions. Moreover, we derive large sample confidence intervals for the regression parameters as well as a large sample prediction interval for new observation. Also, we study the properties of these estimators for small sample setup and conduct a simulation study to investigate the behavior of the distributions of the proposed estimators.     

Difference-in-difference estimation by FE and OLS when there is panel non-response

We show that the ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed-effects (FE) estimators of the popular difference-in-differences model may deviate when there is time-varying panel non-response. If such non-response does not affect the common-trend assumption, then OLS and FE are consistent, but OLS is more precise. However, if non-response is affecting the common-trend assumption, then FE estimation may still be consistent, while OLS will be inconsistent. We provide simulation as well as empirical evidence for this phenomenon to occur. We conclude that in case of unbalanced panels, deviating OLS and FE estimates should be considered as evidence that non-response is not ignorable for the differences-in-differences estimation.     

Nonparametric estimation of transition probabilities in a non-Markov illness–death model

In this paper we consider nonparametric estimation of transition probabilities for multi-state models. Specifically, we focus on the illness-death or disability model. The main novelty of the proposed estimators is that they do not rely on the Markov assumption, typically assumed to hold in a multi-state model. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the introduced estimators, such as their consistency and their convergence to a normal law. Simulations demonstrate that the new estimators may outperform Aalen–Johansen estimators (the classical nonparametric tool for estimating the transition probabilities) in non-Markov situation. An illustration through real data analysis is included.     

Quasi- and pseudo-maximum likelihood estimators for discretely observed continuous-time Markov branching processes

This article deals with quasi- and pseudo-likelihood estimation for a class of continuous-time multi-type Markov branching processes observed at discrete points in time. “Conventional” and conditional estimation are discussed for both approaches. We compare their properties and identify situations where they lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators. Both approaches possess robustness properties, and coincide with maximum likelihood estimation in some cases. Quasi-likelihood functions involving only linear combinations of the data may be unable to estimate all model parameters. Remedial measures exist, including the resort either to non-linear functions of the data or to conditioning the moments on appropriate sigma-algebras. The method of pseudo-likelihood may also resolve this issue. We investigate the properties of these approaches in three examples: the pure birth process, the linear birth-and-death process, and a two-type process that generalizes the previous two examples. Simulations studies are conducted to evaluate performance in finite samples.     

Estimation of the joint survival function for successive duration times

In incident cohort studies, survival data often include subjects who have experienced an initiate event but have not experienced a subsequent event at the calendar time of recruitment. During the follow-up periods, subjects may undergo a series of successive events. Since the second/third duration process becomes observable only if the first/second event has occurred, the data are subject to left-truncation and dependent censoring. In this article, using the inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) approach, we propose nonparametric estimators for the estimation of the joint survival function of three successive duration times. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. The simple bootstrap methods are used to estimate standard deviations and construct interval estimators. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators.     

Non-penalty shrinkage estimation of random effect models for longitudinal data with AR(1) errors

In this paper, we consider the non-penalty shrinkage estimation method of random effect models with autoregressive errors for longitudinal data when there are many covariates and some of them may not be active for the response variable. In observational studies, subjects are followed over equally or unequally spaced visits to determine the continuous response and whether the response is associated with the risk factors/covariates. Measurements from the same subject are usually more similar to each other and thus are correlated with each other but not with observations of other subjects. To analyse this data, we consider a linear model that contains both random effects across subjects and within-subject errors that follows autoregressive structure of order 1 (AR(1)). Considering the subject-specific random effect as a nuisance parameter, we use two competing models, one includes all the covariates and the other restricts the coefficients based on the auxiliary information. We consider the non-penalty shrinkage estimation strategy that shrinks the unrestricted estimator in the direction of the restricted estimator. We discuss the asymptotic properties of the shrinkage estimators using the notion of asymptotic biases and risks. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to examine the relative performance of the shrinkage estimators with the unrestricted estimator when the shrinkage dimension exceeds two. We also numerically compare the performance of the shrinkage estimators to that of the LASSO estimator. A longitudinal CD4 cell count data set will be used to illustrate the usefulness of shrinkage and LASSO estimators.     

Semiparametric estimation of treatment effect with time-lagged response in the presence of informative censoring

In many randomized clinical trials, the primary response variable, for example, the survival time, is not observed directly after the patients enroll in the study but rather observed after some period of time (lag time). It is often the case that such a response variable is missing for some patients due to censoring that occurs when the study ends before the patient’s response is observed or when the patients drop out of the study. It is often assumed that censoring occurs at random which is referred to as noninformative censoring; however, in many cases such an assumption may not be reasonable. If the missing data are not analyzed properly, the estimator or test for the treatment effect may be biased. In this paper, we use semiparametric theory to derive a class of consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for the treatment effect parameter which are applicable when the response variable is right censored. The baseline auxiliary covariates and post-treatment auxiliary covariates, which may be time-dependent, are also considered in our semiparametric model. These auxiliary covariates are used to derive estimators that both account for informative censoring and are more efficient then the estimators which do not consider the auxiliary covariates.     

Nonparametric estimation of waiting time distributions in a Markov model based on current status data

We construct nonparametric estimators of state waiting time distribution functions in a Markov multistate model using current status data. This is a particularly difficult problem since neither the entry nor the exit times of a given state are directly observed. These estimators are obtained, using the Markov property, from estimators of counting processes of state entry and exit times, as well as, the size of “at risk” sets of state entry and transitions out of that state. Consistency of our estimators is established. Finite-sample behavior of our estimators is studied by simulation, in which we show that our estimators based on current status data compare well with those based on complete data. We also illustrate our method using a pubertal development data set obtained from the NHANES III [1997. NHANES III Reference Manuals and Reports (CD-ROM). Analytic and Reporting Guidelines: The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–94). National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD] study.     

Asymptotics and bootstrap for random-effects panel data transformation models

This article investigates the asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators for random-effects panel data transformation models where both the response and (some of) the covariates are subject to transformations for inducing normality, flexible functional form, homoskedasticity, and simple model structure. We develop a QML-type procedure for model estimation and inference. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the QML estimators, and propose a simple bootstrap procedure that leads to a robust estimate of the variance-covariance (VC) matrix. Monte Carlo results reveal that the QML estimators perform well in finite samples, and that the gains by using the robust VC matrix estimate for inference can be enormous.     

Estimation of the joint survival function for three successive duration times under double truncation and right censoring

In incident cohort studies, it is common to include subjects who have experienced a certain event within a calendar time window. For all the included individuals, the time of the previous events is retrospectively confirmed and the occurrence of subsequent events is observed during the follow-up periods. During the follow-up periods, subjects may undergo three successive events. Since the second/third duration process becomes observable only if the first/second event has occurred, the data is subject to double truncation and right censoring. We consider two cases: the case when the first event time is subject to double truncation and the case when the second event time is subject to double truncation. Using the inverse-probability-weighted approach, we propose nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for the estimation of the joint survival function of three successive duration times. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and conduct a simulation study to investigate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators.     

A robust pairwise likelihood method for incomplete longitudinal binary data arising in clusters

Clustered longitudinal data feature cross‐sectional associations within clusters, serial dependence within subjects, and associations between responses at different time points from different subjects within the same cluster. Generalized estimating equations are often used for inference with data of this sort since they do not require full specification of the response model. When data are incomplete, however, they require data to be missing completely at random unless inverse probability weights are introduced based on a model for the missing data process. The authors propose a robust approach for incomplete clustered longitudinal data using composite likelihood. Specifically, pairwise likelihood methods are described for conducting robust estimation with minimal model assumptions made. The authors also show that the resulting estimates remain valid for a wide variety of missing data problems including missing at random mechanisms and so in such cases there is no need to model the missing data process. In addition to describing the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators, it is shown that the method performs well empirically through simulation studies for complete and incomplete data. Pairwise likelihood estimators are also compared with estimators obtained from inverse probability weighted alternating logistic regression. An application to data from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project is provided for illustration. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 34–51; 2011 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

An estimating equation for parametric shared frailty models with marginal additive hazards

Summary.  Multivariate failure time data arise when data consist of clusters in which the failure times may be dependent. A popular approach to such data is the marginal proportional hazards model with estimation under the working independence assumption. In some contexts, however, it may be more reasonable to use the marginal additive hazards model. We derive asymptotic properties of the Lin and Ying estimators for the marginal additive hazards model for multivariate failure time data. Furthermore we suggest estimating equations for the regression parameters and association parameters in parametric shared frailty models with marginal additive hazards by using the Lin and Ying estimators. We give the large sample properties of the estimators arising from these estimating equations and investigate their small sample properties by Monte Carlo simulation. A real example is provided for illustration.     

Marginalized transition random effect models for multivariate longitudinal binary data

Generalized linear models with random effects and/or serial dependence are commonly used to analyze longitudinal data. However, the computation and interpretation of marginal covariate effects can be difficult. This led Heagerty (1999, 2002) to propose models for longitudinal binary data in which a logistic regression is first used to explain the average marginal response. The model is then completed by introducing a conditional regression that allows for the longitudinal, within‐subject, dependence, either via random effects or regressing on previous responses. In this paper, the authors extend the work of Heagerty to handle multivariate longitudinal binary response data using a triple of regression models that directly model the marginal mean response while taking into account dependence across time and across responses. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used for inference. Data from the Iowa Youth and Families Project are used to illustrate the methods.     

Optimized estimation for population mean using conventional and non-conventional measures under the joint influence of measurement error and non-response

Most of the research work in the theory of survey sampling only deals with the sampling errors under the assumptions: (i) there is a complete response and (ii) recorded information from individuals is correct but in practice it is not always true. Non-sampling errors like non-response and measurement errors (MEs) mostly creep into the survey and become more influential for estimators than sampling errors. Considering this practical situation of non-response and MEs jointly, we proposed an optimum class of estimators for population mean under simple random sampling using conventional and non-conventional measures. Bias and mean square error of the proposed estimators are derived up to first degree of approximation. Moreover, a simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of new estimators which proves that proposed estimators are more efficient than the traditional Hansen and Hurwitz estimator and other competing estimators.     

Semiparametric multiple kernel estimators and model diagnostics for count regression functions

Abstract

This study concerns semiparametric approaches to estimate discrete multivariate count regression functions. The semiparametric approaches investigated consist of combining discrete multivariate nonparametric kernel and parametric estimations such that (i) a prior knowledge of the conditional distribution of model response may be incorporated and (ii) the bias of the traditional nonparametric kernel regression estimator of Nadaraya-Watson may be reduced. We are precisely interested in combination of the two estimations approaches with some asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators. Asymptotic normality results were showed for nonparametric correction terms of parametric start function of the estimators. The performance of discrete semiparametric multivariate kernel estimators studied is illustrated using simulations and real count data. In addition, diagnostic checks are performed to test the adequacy of the parametric start model to the true discrete regression model. Finally, using discrete semiparametric multivariate kernel estimators provides a bias reduction when the parametric multivariate regression model used as start regression function belongs to a neighborhood of the true regression model.     

Estimating models based on Markov jump processes given fragmented observation series

We consider the problem of estimating the rate matrix governing a finite-state Markov jump process given a number of fragmented time series. We propose to concatenate the observed series and to employ the emerging non-Markov process for estimation. We describe the bias arising if standard methods for Markov processes are used for the concatenated process, and provide a post-processing method to correct for this bias. This method applies to discrete-time Markov chains and to more general models based on Markov jump processes where the underlying state process is not observed directly. This is demonstrated in detail for a Markov switching model. We provide applications to simulated time series and to financial market data, where estimators resulting from maximum likelihood methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling are improved using the presented correction.     

Estimation of population mean using imputation techniques in sample surveys

To deal with the problems of non-response, one-parameter classes of imputation techniques have been suggested and their corresponding point estimators have been proposed. The proposed classes of estimators include several other estimators as a particular case for different values of the parameter. A design based approach is used to compare the proposed strategy with the existing strategies. Theoretical results have been verified through simulation studies handling real data examples.