关于实施结构性减税政策若干问题的分析

2011年中央经济工作会议提出,2012年我国要继续实施积极的财政政策。结构性减税政策在积极的财政政策中具有重要的地位和作用。近年来,我国实施的结构性减税政策具有多税种并用、多手段并举、多环节并促的特点,这一政策在减轻企业和居民税收负担、鼓励和扩大内需、引导经济结构战略性调整、保障和改善民生等方面产生了积极效应。从动态上看,减税政策对经济的刺激作用在一定程度上增强了经济活力,培育了新的税源,为国家继续实施积极的财政政策提供了可靠的财力保障。     

积极财政政策下的税收政策取向

积极财政政策作为我国近期宏观调控经济的基本政策,已取得了一定效益.我国继续实施积极的财政政策还有一定的空间和时间,但仅以增发国债为主的积极财政政策有其局限性,而减税在弥补扩大投资的局限性方面有不可替代的作用.减税政策是"十五"期间国民经济发展的客观需要,应保持相对长期的稳定性,并应遵循一定的原则.     

对我国实行积极财政政策的若干思考

由于市场运作环境和政策环境不够完善等因素 ,制约了我国积极财政政策作用的发挥。应规范政府职能与行为 ,深化税收制度改革 ,完善收入分配体制 ,以进一步发挥积极财政政策作用     

1998年以来中国的积极财政政策及其效果评析

文章就 1998年以来中国实施的积极财政政策及其效果进行了评析。主要包括 :政策启动的背景、积极财政政策的要点、积极财政政策的成效、对“挤出效应”、国债资金的使用效益、减税和国债风险等问题的认识。文章通过详细的实证分析 ,揭示了积极财政政策的实施对中国经济增长的影响。     

财政的反周期调节政策及其风险

本文对我国当前在存在通货紧缩现象条件下提出财政反周期调节政策的国内和国际背景，这个政策的理论依据和运用什么政策工具来推行积极的财政政策进行反周期调节，以及如何对这项政策的风险进行正确评价等，提出了自己的见解。     

西方需求管理政策给我国经济之启示

在我国经济有效需求不足状况下,借鉴西方需求管理理论以启动国民经济,扩大内需,是我国政府所采用的宏观经济政策的主要内容。在通货紧缩,需求不足的经济时期,采用扩张性的财政政策和货币政策,在政策工具的运用及政策的力度上,应考虑我国经济的特点及社会环境因素,不能生搬硬套。本文对我国宏观经济中需求管理政策的运用及运用中应注意的问题作了初步探讨。     

基于IS-LM模型的中国宏观经济政策效果的影响因素分析

IS-LM模型是凯恩斯国民收入决定理论的中心理论,也是分析宏观经济政策效果的有效工具.通过对IS-LM理论模型进行较为细致的梳理,本文认为在宏观政策效果分析中需要特别重视投资需求对利率的反应系数(即d值)和货币投机需求对利率的反应系数(即h值)的大小与财政政策与货币政策作用效果之间的关系.依据IS-LM理论模型,结合中国经济的现实,从控制d和h值大小的角度分析了提高我国宏观政策效果的因素,通过计量分析我国总量增长中财政政策和货币政策的贡献,为我国不同经济失衡情况下财政政策和货币政策组合的选择提供建议和方向性指导.     

财政政策失误与日本经济萧条

错误的财政政策是导致日本在泡沫经济崩溃后陷入长期萧条的主要原因之一。在泡沫经济崩溃后的相当长的一段时期里,日本经济政策一直在凯恩斯主义的积极扩张财政和保守主义的紧缩财政之间反复徘徊,但终以后者占据上风。积极财政政策的力度不够,扩张和紧缩财政政策互相矛盾,及不计实际经济后果地贯彻紧缩财政政策,使日本错失了走出萧条获得持续增长的机会。2 0世纪90年代日本政治和经济意识形态的保守化,政治不稳定,领导集团执政能力的降低,是导致财政政策失误的政治因素     

积极财政政策的效应分析与现实选择

以增发国债为主要手段的积极财政政策在我国近年来的经济增长中功不可没。然而 ,随着时间的推移 ,现行积极财政政策面临国债投资效益递减、并可能导致未来经济陷入“滞胀”的局面。所以 ,减税成为继续实行积极财政政策的新方向。目前适度减税的具体措施 :一是改生产型增值税为消费型增值税 ;二是完善现行企业所得税 ;三是逐步免除农业税费。     

积极财政政策的退出与稳健财政政策的实施

多年来,我国综合国内外经济形势,实施了积极财政政策,扩大了内需,刺激了消费,在促进国民经济持续快速稳定增长方面发挥了巨大的作用。但另一方面也加大了政府的财政风险,导致了某些行业和局部的经济发展过热,从而严重地妨碍了市场化进程。根据我国宏观经济形势的发展变化和巩固宏观调控成果的要求,必须让积极财政政策退位,转而实施稳健财政政策,并把握好“控制赤字、调整结构、推进改革、增收节支”的方针。     

Fiscal Policy and Urban and Rural Residents＇ Marginal Propensity to Consume

基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20％。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,．除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。     

The Ageing of Australia: Fiscal Sustainability,Intergenerational Equity and Inter‐temporal Fiscal Balance

Australian public policy makers are presently confronted with significant demographic changes that will profoundly affect the formulation of rational economic and social policy over the long term. This paper seeks to outline the potential impact of this demographic change and place it in historical perspective. The challenges posed by an ageing population for fiscal policy are explored and it is stressed that policy inertia will invite severe costs in future. It is argued that an appropriate policy stance should be developed in the context of a framework for inter‐temporal fiscal balance not only to focus on long‐run fiscal sustainability, but also to include considerations of intergenerational equity.     

The Fiscal Crisis of National Health Insurance in the Republic of Korea: In Search of a New Paradigm

In 2001, National Health Insurance (NHI) in Korea, the social insurance system for health care with universal population coverage, experienced a serious fiscal crisis as its accumulated surplus was depleted. This fiscal crisis is attributed to its chronic imbalance: health care expenditure has increased more rapidly than have insurance contributions. The recent failure in implementing pharmaceutical reform was a further blow to the deteriorating fiscal status of the NHI. Although the NHI has since recovered from the immediate fiscal crisis, this has mainly been because of a temporary increase in government subsidy into the NHI. The strong influence of the medical profession in health policy‐making remains a major barrier to the introduction of policy changes, such as a reform of the payment system to strengthen the fiscal foundations of the NHI. Korea also has to restructure its national health insurance in an era of very rapid population ageing. A new paradigm is called for in the governance of the NHI: to empower groups of consumers and payers in the policy and major decision‐making process of the NHI. The fiscal crisis in Korean national health insurance sheds light on the vulnerability of the social health insurance system to financial instability, the crucial role of provider payment schemes in health cost containment, the importance of governance in health policy, and the unintended burdens of health care reform on health care financing systems.     

Fiscal harmonization in view of the Euro adoption: Economic implications for Poland

In this paper, we investigate the ex ante effects of fiscal policy harmonization that might be necessary for the adoption of the common currency on economic growth in Poland using a neoclassical dynamic two-sector general equilibrium model. We study two fiscal policy scenarios. In the first one, we adjust all taxes to German and EU-27 levels, respectively, while in the second one, we change only consumption taxes to German and EU-27 levels. We find that in the first scenario, the current Polish taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to lower capital taxation. However, in the second scenario, German and EU-27 taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to the lower consumption tax on capital-intensive good. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that fiscal policy with lower taxes on capital and capital-intensive goods can generate a higher rate of growth in the long-run. In the case of fiscal harmonization, our findings propose adopting only German or EU-27 consumption tax structure into the Polish tax system.     

The political economy of U.S. economic performance: is the president responsible?

A recurring theme in electoral politics is that American voters hold the president responsible for the state of the economy. Ironically, many Presidency scholars argue that presidents are ill equipped to manage the economy because other variables compete with and complicate the effects of fiscal policy. These include international variables, private market forces, and monetary policy, among others. Using simultaneous equation methods, we examine the direct and indirect effects of fiscal policy on economic performance while controlling for a variety of other determinants of economic performance. We find that fiscal policy plays a significant role in influencing unemployment and economic growth in the United States, even after controlling for a variety of other determinants of economic performance. We close by discussing the importance of linking the econometric modeling literature with the literature on presidential management of the economy.     

Monetary policy in the New-Keynesian model: An application to the Euro Area

This paper analyzes monetary policy in a stylized New-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) optimal monetary policy under commitment or discretion versus ad-hoc monetary policy based on simple rules, (ii) the effects of fiscal policies and foreign variables on monetary policy, (iii) the effects of fiscal deficit and interest rate smoothing objectives and the role of forward-backward linkages in the model. The model is estimated for the Euro Area. Using simulations of the estimated model, it is analyzed how these aspects might affect monetary policy of the ECB and macroeconomic fluctuations in the Euro Area.     

The effect of the rescue plans and the need for policies to increase economic growth

This paper evaluates the economic impact of discretionary fiscal and monetary actions taken in the United States during 2020 and 2021. The fiscal actions are The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the “CARES” Act, passed in March 2020; The Consolidated Appropriations Act, passed in December 2020; and The American Rescue Plan Act, passed in March 2021. The paper focuses on the impact of the “economic impact payments” that underlie these fiscal actions. The paper also examines discretionary monetary policy actions taken during the same period. The overall implication is that there is a need to return to policies that increase economic growth and stability, including rules-based fiscal and monetary policy, rather than to continue with these one-time discretionary actions.     

Breaking the Stability Pact: Was it predictable?

We show analytically that the credibility problem which has affected the European Stability Pact originates from the insufficient distinction between two reasons for having binding fiscal constraints. The first reason deals with the governments’ tendency to neglect the effects of their fiscal policy on foreign governments (fiscal free-riding). The second reason follows from the governments’ tendency to raise debt by lowering taxes or increasing expenditures, and then to leave it to their successors (fiscal short-termism). An enforcement mechanism relying on governments’ collusion works if the fiscal constraints are not calibrated for curing fiscal short-termism but only for preventing fiscal free-riding.     

Fiscal and monetary policy rules revisited

Why have automatic procedures designed to limit or eliminate the discretion of policy-makers become popular in recent years? The first part of the paper addresses fiscal policy rules by analyzing their political appeal as restrainers, symbols, partisan weapons, and ideological statements. The second part of the paper considers monetary policy rules and their rationales, and critiques them. We argue that fiscal and monetary policy rules may not be as efficacious as their supporters claim, and they raise new problems stemming from their biases, rigidity, and antidemocratic implications.