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1.
We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will
be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance
their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below
those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing
the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level.
Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.
相似文献
Richard ZeckhauserEmail: |
2.
Evaluation of projects that affect mortality risk usually assumes that risk changes are small and similar across individuals.
In reality, risks differ among individuals and information about risk heterogeneity determines the extent to which affected
lives are “statistical” or “identified” and influences the outcome of benefit-cost analysis (BCA). The effects of information
about risk heterogeneity on BCA depend on, inter alia, whether information concerns heterogeneity of baseline or change in
risk and whether valuation uses compensating or equivalent variation. BCA does not systematically favor identified over statistical
lives. We suggest some political factors that may explain the apparent public bias.
相似文献
Nicolas TreichEmail: |
3.
We propose a simple model with preference-based adverse selection and moral hazard that formalizes the cherry picking/propitious
selection argument. This argument assumes that individuals differ in risk aversion, potentially resulting in more risk averse
agents buying more insurance while being less risky. The propitious selection argument is summarized by two properties: regularity
(more risk averse agents exert more caution) and single-crossing (more risk averse agents have a higher willingness to pay
for insurance). We show that these assumptions are incompatible with a pooling equilibrium, and that they do not imply a negative
correlation between risk and insurance coverage at equilibrium.
相似文献
Philippe De DonderEmail: |
4.
The diversification bias in repeated lotteries is the finding that a majority of participants fail to select the option offering
the highest probability. This phenomenon is systematic and immune to classical manipulations (e.g. monetary rewards). We apply
dual process theories and argue that the diversification bias is a consequence of System 1 (automatic, intuitive, associative)
triggering a matching response, which fails to be corrected by System 2 (intentional, analytic, rational). Empirically, supporting
the corrective functions of System 2 through appropriate contextual cues (describing the task as a statistical test rather
than as a lottery) led to a decrease of diversification.
相似文献
Anton KühbergerEmail: URL: http://www.sbg.ac.at/psy/people/kuehberger.htm |
5.
Valuing publicly sponsored research projects: Risks,scenario adjustments,and inattention 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Daniel R. Burghart Trudy Ann Cameron Geoffrey R. Gerdes 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):77-105
Survey-based choice scenarios used to value non-market public goods typically preclude any risk that the benefits described
may not be delivered. Our survey specifies explicit risks of (a) outright program failure and (b) program redundancy due to
possible private sector substitutes. Additionally, most analyses assume that survey subjects fully accept these scenarios
and that all provided information receives their complete attention. Our discounted expected utility model of choice accommodates
both these objective risks and the possibility of subjective scenario adjustment or selective inattention by respondents.
We then counterfactually simulate willingness-to-pay in the absence of these distortions.
相似文献
Trudy Ann CameronEmail: |
6.
Individuals’ perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is
compared with the objective risk of the respondents’ peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that
individuals’ risk perception of their own risk is biased. For road-traffic risk we obtain similar results to what have been
found previously in the literature, overassessment and underassessment among low- and high-risk groups, respectively. For
overall risk we find that all risk groups underestimate their risk. The results also indicate that men's risk bias is larger
than women’s.
相似文献
Henrik AnderssonEmail: |
7.
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively
estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional
on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments.
In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information
in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past
or anticipated decisions on these beliefs.
相似文献
Frank SloanEmail: |
8.
Marco Casari 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(2):117-141
An agent with dynamically inconsistent preferences may deviate from her plan of action as the future draws near. An exponential
discounter may do exactly the same when facing an uncertain future. Through an experiment we compare preference-based vs.
uncertainty-based explanations for choice reversal over time by eliciting choices for pre-commitment and flexibility. Evidence
of widespread commitment favors a preference-based explanation.
相似文献
Marco CasariEmail: |
9.
A unified parameterization of an expected utility model corrected for regret and disappointment effects is presented, constrained
to conform to a well-known choice pattern, the common consequence effect, a special case of the Allais paradox. For choices
subject to regret and disappointment effects to be consistent with this choice pattern, the function that corrects the utility
of the obtained outcome has to have a positive second derivative for its regret component and a negative second derivative
for its disappointment component. These hypothesized functional forms make predictions about the relative effect that small
vs. large differences between obtained and alternative outcomes should have on people’s experiences of regret or disappointment.
相似文献
Elke U. WeberEmail: |
10.
Adeline Delavande 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(1):43-82
This paper develops a new metric to measure revisions to subjective expectations and proposes a survey design strategy that
enables the estimation of the metric. As an application, I analyze how women update their ex pectations about the effectiveness
of contraception methods. The women interviewed exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the way they revise their expectations
with receipt of the same information. When relating the heterogeneity in the updating process to observable characteristics,
I find that schooling, having a regular sexual partner and knowledge and use of birth control methods have a large impact
on the revision process about the effectiveness of contraceptives.
相似文献
Adeline DelavandeEmail: |
11.
Petter Lundborg 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(3):217-240
Using data on Swedish adolescents, this study examines (1) perceptions of the addictiveness and mortality risk of smoking,
(2) the effects of these perceptions on smoking behaviour, and (3) the role of various smoking risk information sources. The
average respondent believed that 46 out of 100 smokers would die from diseases caused by their smoking. As to addictiveness
perceptions, the average respondent believed that 68 out of 100 smokers trying to quit would not succeed. Both a higher perceived
addictiveness and a higher perceived mortality risk were negatively related to smoking participation. The results showed substantial
variation in the weight that the teenagers attached to the various information sources.
相似文献
Petter LundborgEmail: |
12.
We present two theorems that yield necessary and sufficient conditions for first- and second-degree stochastic dominance deteriorations
of background risk to increase risk aversion with respect to foreground risk. We require that any change in a foreground risk
that is undesirable remains so after a background risk changes in a way that is either unfair, undesirable in the sense of
reducing expected utility, or undesirable in the sense of increasing expected marginal utility. Our results thus characterize
utility functions that are, respectively, vulnerable, proper, or standard with respect to changes in background risk.
相似文献
Arthur SnowEmail: |
13.
14.
Christian Gollier 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(2):107-127
We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability
distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover,
increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that
when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This
can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.
相似文献
Christian GollierEmail: |
15.
16.
The problem of asymmetric information causes a winner’s curse in many environments. Given many unsuccessful attempts to eliminate
it, we hypothesize that some people ‘prefer’ the lotteries underlying the winner’s curse. Study 1 shows that after removing
the hypothesized cause of error, asymmetric information, half the subjects still prefer winner’s curse lotteries, implying
past efforts to de-bias the winner’s curse may have been more successful than previously recognized since subjects prefer
these lotteries. Study 2 shows risk-seeking preferences only partially explain lottery preferences, while non-monetary sources
of utility may explain the rest. Study 2 suggests lottery preferences are not independent of context, and offers methods to
reduce the winner’s curse.
相似文献
Robert Slonim (Corresponding author)Email: |
17.
We study optimal investment in self-protection of insured individuals when they face interdependencies in the form of potential
contamination from others. If individuals cannot coordinate their actions, then the positive externality of investing in self-protection
implies that, in equilibrium, individuals underinvest in self-protection. Limiting insurance coverage through deductibles
or selling “at-fault” insurance can partially internalize this externality and thereby improve individual and social welfare.
相似文献
Howard KunreutherEmail: |
18.
We develop and test a model which links information acquisition decisions to the hedonic utility of information. Acquiring
and attending to information increases the psychological impact of information (an impact effect), increases the speed of adjustment for a utility reference-point (a reference-point updating effect), and affects the degree of risk aversion towards randomness in news (a risk aversion effect). Given plausible parameter values, the model predicts asymmetric preferences for the timing of resolution of uncertainty:
Individuals should monitor and attend to information more actively given preliminary good news but “put their heads in the
sand” by avoiding additional information given adverse prior news. We test for such an “ostrich effect” in a finance context,
examining the account monitoring behavior of Scandinavian and American investors in two datasets. In both datasets, investors
monitor their portfolios more frequently in rising markets than when markets are flat or falling.
相似文献
Duane SeppiEmail: |
19.
The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi,India 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Soma Bhattacharya Anna Alberini Maureen L. Cropper 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(1):21-47
We interviewed commuters in Delhi, India, to estimate their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce their risk of dying in road
traffic accidents in three scenarios that mirror the circumstances under which traffic fatalities occur in Delhi. The WTP
responses are internally valid: WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, income, and exposure to road traffic risks,
as measured by length of commute and whether the respondent drives a motorcycle. As a result, the value of a statistical life
(VSL) varies across groups of beneficiaries. For the most highly-exposed individuals the VSL is about 150,000 Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP) dollars.
相似文献
Maureen L. CropperEmail: |
20.
Susan K. Laury Melayne Morgan McInnes J. Todd Swarthout 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,39(1):17-44
It is widely accepted that individuals tend to underinsure against low-probability, high-loss events relative to high-probability,
low-loss events. This conventional wisdom is based largely on field studies, as there is very little experimental evidence.
We reexamine this issue with an experiment that accounts for possible confounds in prior insurance experiments. Our results
are counter to the prior experimental evidence, as we observe subjects buying more insurance for lower-probability events
than for higher-probability events, given a constant expected loss and load factor. Insofar as underinsurance for catastrophic
risk is observed in the field, our results suggest that this can be attributed to factors other than only the relative probability
of the loss events.
相似文献
J. Todd SwarthoutEmail: |