Expected Utility Consistent Extensions of Preferences

We consider the problem of extending a (complete) order over a set to its power set. The extension axioms we consider generate orderings over sets according to their expected utilities induced by some assignment of utilities over alternatives and probability distributions over sets. The model we propose gives a general and unified exposition of expected utility consistent extensions whilst it allows to emphasize various subtleties, the effects of which seem to be underestimated – particularly in the literature on strategy-proof social choice correspondences.      

Beliefs,Death Anxiety,Denial, and Treatment Preferences in End-of-Life Care

Abstract

This study examined cultural and religious beliefs, death anxiety, denial, and medical treatment preferences in end-of-life care in a sample of social work students, community residents, and medical students in a mid-western city of 49,000. Results indicated that most social work students, community residents, and medical students preferred palliative as opposed to life-prolonging care during terminal illness. The three groups differed in cultural and religious beliefs and all three reported a moderate amount of death anxiety. Students reported less denial of terminality than community residents. Implications for personal and professional preparation to provide end-of-life care are discussed.     

Dynamic Choice and NonExpected Utility

This paper explores how some widely studied classes of nonexpected utility models could be used in dynamic choice situations. A new "sequential consistency" condition is introduced for single-stage and multi-stage decision problems. Sequential consistency requires that if a decision maker has committed to a family of models (e.g., the multiple priors family, the rank-dependent family, or the betweenness family) then he use the same family throughout. Conditions are presented under which dynamic consistency, consequentialism, and sequential consistency can be simultaneously preserved for a nonexpected utility maximizer. An important class of applications concerns cases where the exact sequence of decisions and events, and thus the dynamic structure of the decision problem, is relevant to the decision maker. It is shown that for the multiple priors model, dynamic consistency, consequentialism, and sequential consistency can all be preserved. The result removes the argument that nonexpected utility models cannot be consistently used in dynamic choice situations. Rank-dependent and betweenness models can only be used in a restrictive manner, where deviation from expected utility is allowed in at most one stage.     

A No-Trade Theorem under Knightian Uncertainty with General Preferences

This paper derives a no-trade theorem under Knightian uncertainty, which generalizes the theorem of Milgrom and Stokey (1982, Journal of Economic Theory 26, 17) by allowing general preference relations. It is shown that the no-trade theorem holds true as long as agents' preferences are dynamically consistent in the sense of Machina and Schmeidler (1991, Econometrica 60, 745), and satisfies the so-called piece-wise monotonicity axiom. A preference satisfying the piece-wise monotonicity axiom does not necessarily imply the additive utility representation, nor is necessarily based on beliefs. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparative Risk Sensitivity with Reference-Dependent Preferences

Experimental evidence suggests that individuals are risk averse over gains and risk seeking over losses (i.e., they have S-shaped utility functions in an expected utility setting) and that they are loss averse. Furthermore, the evidence leads to a single definition of S-shaped utility, but it has led to several alternative specifications of loss aversion. This paper characterizes the relations more S-shaped than and more loss averse than for a utility function, and in so doing arrives at a new definition of loss aversion based on average instead of marginal utility.     

Joint Beliefs in Conflictual Coordination Games

The traditional solution concept for noncooperative game theory is the Nash equilibrium, which contains an implicit assumption that players probability distributions satisfy t probabilistic independence. However, in games with more than two players, relaxing this assumption results in a more general equilibrium concept based on joint beliefs (Vanderschraaf, 1995). This article explores the implications of this joint-beliefs equilibrium concept for two kinds of conflictual coordination games: crisis bargaining and public goods provision. We find that, using updating consistent with Bayes rule, players beliefs converge to equilibria in joint beliefs which do not satisfy probabilistic independence. In addition, joint beliefs greatly expand the set of mixed equilibria. On the face of it, allowing for joint beliefs might be expected to increase the prospects for coordination. However, we show that if players use joint beliefs, which may be more likely as the number of players increases, then the prospects for coordination in these games declines vis-à-vis independent beliefs.     

On the Representation of Beliefs by Probabilities

This paper explores two axiomatic structures of subjective expected utility assuming a finite state-space and state-dependent, connected, topological outcome-spaces. Building on the work of Karni and Schmeidler (1981) the analytical framework includes, in addition to the preference relation on acts, introspective preferences on hypothetical lotteries that are linked to the preference relation on acts by consistency axioms. The two models accommodate state-dependent preferences and yield subjective probabilities that correctly represent the decision-maker's beliefs. State-independent preferences are a special case.     

The Firm Under Uncertainty with General Risk-Averse Preferences: A State-Contingent Approach

This paper summarizes and synthesizes recent developments in the state-contingent theory of production under uncertainty presented by Chambers and Quiggin (2000) with a particular focus on the case of generalized expected utility preferences. The problem of the risk-averse firm under price and production uncertainty is analyzed using a state-contingent production technology and general risk-averse preferences. The concept of an efficient frontier, which identifies all potentially optimal production plans for weakly risk-averse decisionmakers, is introduced and used to develop comparative static results. For constant absolute risky technologies, the efficient frontier is shown to correspond to a unique isocost contour.     

An Experimental Comparison of Induced and Elicited Beliefs

Understanding choice under risk requires knowledge of beliefs and preferences. A variety of methods have been proposed to elicit peoples beliefs. The efficacy of alternative methods, however, has not been rigorously documented. Herein we use an experiment to test whether an induced probability can be recovered using an elicitation mechanism based on peoples predictions about a random event. We are unable to recover the induced belief. Instead, the estimated belief is systematically biased in a way that is consistent with anecdotal evidence in the economics, psychology, and statistics literature: people seem to overestimate low and underestimate high probabilities.     

浅析中国道教对越南宗教信仰的影响

作为与中国山水相连的邻邦,越南受到了汉文化的巨大影响。中国的本土宗教道教对越南的宗教形成发展及民族文化有着深刻的影响,并且这种影响延续到了今天。了解中国道教对越南宗教信仰的影响,是人们了解和研究越南文化一个不可或缺的重要内容,这将有助于进一步了解越南。     

A Rule For Updating Ambiguous Beliefs

When preferences are such that there is no unique additive prior, the issue of which updating rule to use is of extreme importance. This paper presents an axiomatization of the rule which requires updating of all the priors by Bayes rule. The decision maker has conditional preferences over acts. It is assumed that preferences over acts conditional on event E happening, do not depend on lotteries received on E ^c, obey axioms which lead to maxmin expected utility representation with multiple priors, and have common induced preferences over lotteries. The paper shows that when all priors give positive probability to an event E, a certain coherence property between conditional and unconditional preferences is satisfied if and only if the set of subjective probability measures considered by the agent given E is obtained by updating all subjective prior probability measures using Bayes rule.     

Probabilities and beliefs

Choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities originated with the work of Ramsey and de Finetti and attained their definitive form in the work of Savage. These probabilities are intended to provide a numerical representation of a decision maker's beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events. In this article, I argue that the choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities involve a tacit convention—namely, state-independent utility functions—that is not implied by the axioms, and, as a consequence, choice-theoretic subjective probabilities, even when they exist, do not necessarily represent the decision makers' beliefs.     

试论宗教信仰的政治意蕴

信仰源于人类的本性需要,宗教信仰也是如此,对宗教信仰的社会作用应给以科学评价。宗教信仰之所以得到许多国家的认同和支持,在于其具有深刻的政治意蕴。它不仅是统治者进行政治统治的理论辩护工具,而且是进行社会控制和稳定社会秩序的调节器,特别是凝聚民族力量的强力粘合剂,一些重要政治运动的传播机。因此,在对待宗教信仰的态度上,我们一方面应该实行宗教信仰自由政策,另一方面必须反对封建迷信、抵制和铲除邪教。同时,维护宗教信仰的民族性特点,坚决反对利用宗教信仰作掩护的民族分裂主义。     

A Simple Tool for Qualitatively Testing,Quantitatively Measuring,and Normatively Justifying Savage's Subjective Expected Utility

This paper introduces a new preference condition that can be used to justify (or criticize) expected utility. The approach taken in this paper is an alternative to Savage's, and is accessible to readers without a mathematical background. It is based on a method for deriving comparisons of tradeoffs from ordinal preferences. Our condition simplifies previously-published tradeoff conditions, and at the same time provides more general and more powerful tools to specialists. The condition is more closely related to empirical methods for measuring utility than its predecessors. It provides a unifying tool for qualitatively testing, quantitatively measuring, and normatively justifying expected utility.     

Taiwanese–Canadian Mothers' Beliefs About Personal Freedom for Their Young Children

This study examined Taiwanese–Canadian mothers’ conceptions of personal freedom in everyday situations for their children and the influence of acculturation on their beliefs. Forty mothers of six‐ to eight‐year‐old children participated in a semistructured interview and sorting task. Interview responses revealed that, regardless of acculturation, child decision‐making was important and that mothers should negotiate and compromise with their child on everyday issues such as clothing, food, activities, daily routine and homework. They believed that child resistance was motivated by the children's personal interests, laziness, limit testing and their emotional state. Sources of conflict were resolved by parental authority, discussing/negotiating and conceding to the child. The sorting task also revealed that personal issues were judged as within their children's jurisdiction.     

Strategic games with security and potential level players

This paper examines the existence of strategic solutions to finite normal form games under the assumption that strategy choices can be described as choices among lotteries where players have security- and potential level preferences over lotteries (e.g., Cohen, Theory and Decision, 33, 101–104, 1992, Gilboa, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 32, 405–420, 1988, Jaffray, Theory and Decision, 24, 169–200, 1988). Since security- and potential level preferences require discontinuous utility representations, standard existence results for Nash equilibria in mixed strategies (Nash, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 36, 48–49, 1950a, Non-Cooperative Games, Ph.D. Dissertation, Princeton University Press, 1950b) or for equilibria in beliefs (Crawford, Journal of Economic Theory, 50, 127–154, 1990) do not apply. As a key insight this paper proves that non-existence of equilibria in beliefs, and therefore non-existence of Nash equilibria in mixed strategies, is possible in finite games with security- and potential level players. But, as this paper also shows, rationalizable strategies (Bernheim, Econometrica, 52, 1007–1028, 1984, Moulin, Mathematical Social Sciences, 7, 83–102, 1984, Pearce, Econometrica, 52, 1029–1050, 1984) exist for such games. Rationalizability rather than equilibrium in beliefs therefore appears to be a more favorable solution concept for games with security- and potential level players.      

Utility Functions for Wealth

We specify all utility functions on wealth implied by four special conditions on preferences between risky prospects in four theories of utility, under the presumption that preference increases in wealth. The theories are von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility (EU), rank dependent utility (RDU), weighted linear utility (WLU), and skew-symmetric bilinear utility (SSBU). The special conditions are a weak version of risk neutrality, Pfanzagl's consistency axiom, Bell's one-switch condition, and a contextual uncertainty condition. Previous research has identified the functional forms for utility of wealth for all four conditions under EU, and for risk neutrality and Pfanzagl's consistency axiom under WLU and SSBU. The functional forms for the other condition-theory combinations are derived in this paper.     

Preschoolers' Beliefs About the Stability of Antisocial Behavior: Implications for Navigating Social Challenges

The relation between 3‐ to 5‐year‐old children's beliefs about sociomoral stability (the tendency for antisocial behavior to remain stable over time) and their reasoning about peer interactions was examined. Participants were 100 preschoolers enrolled in a Head Start program. Children who endorsed sociomoral stability beliefs were less likely than their peers to make prosocial inferences, were rated by their teachers as less likely to engage in prosocial behavior, and were more likely to endorse the use of aggression to solve conflict with peers. These findings suggest that as early as preschool, children have general patterns of beliefs about the stability of antisocial behavior that predict a tendency to de‐emphasize prosocial strategies that can mediate social challenges.     

Preference Reversals and Induced Risk Preferences: Evidence for Noisy Maximization

We combine two research lines: preference reversal research (Lichtenstein and Slovic, 1971) and research on lottery-based risk preference induction (Roth and Malouf, 1979). Our results are informative for both research lines. We show that inducing risk preferences in preference reversal experiments has dramatic effects. First, while our subjects still display reversals, they do not display the usual pattern of predicted reversals suggested by the compatibility hypothesis. By inducing risk averse and risk loving preferences, we can dramatically reduce reversal rates and even produce the opposite pattern of reversals. Our results are consistent with the assumption that subjects maximize expected utility with error. This provides evidence that Camerer and Hogarth's (1999) framework for incentive effects can be extended to include the risk preference induction reward scheme.     

Health Beliefs and Attitudes: A Comparison Between Turkey and Palestine

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to identify the beliefs and attitudes that influence health-related behavior while comparing two countries that can have different political and economic structures. This study also gathers both Turkish and Palestinian citizens' beliefs and attitudes towards health determinants. To assess and compare citizens' attitudes toward health care and health determinants a total of 4,100 questionnaires were distributed, whereas 2,600 were distributed in Turkey, and another 1,500 questionnaires in the Palestine. According to the research, the individuals surveyed in Turkey noted that smoking, stress, and getting access to a medical institution were noted as the most influential determinants which affect their health; whereas, the people of Palestine thought that income status, and educational levels were the most influential factors in health. In addition, it was found that there were some statistically significant differences between participants' responses in Turkey and Palestine; however, what both samples shared was that economic factors were an important factor affecting health beliefs and attitudes, regardless of where a participant lived. Finally, comparisons and future recommendations are made to improve health-related beliefs, attitudes and behaviors in both countries.