孩次、生育时间与生育水平——基于中日韩妇女平均生育年龄变动与差异的机制研究

文章描述1990 ～2015年间中日韩三国妇女平均生育年龄的变化特征,揭示孩次结构和分孩次生育时间对平均生育年龄指标的影响,分析三国部及国家间妇女平均生育年龄时期变化与国别差异的影响机制.研究发现,观察期间中国妇女的平均生育年龄先下降后上升;平均生育年龄的提高是孩次减少与生育推迟共同作用的结果,后者的影响极为显著,但21世纪近5年的在机制表现值得关注.与日韩相比,中国妇女总体及分孩次的平均生育年龄都相对偏低;三国妇女的平均生育年龄上升态势后的在机制存在差异.文章还就平均生育年龄指标在衡量生育时间的准确性问题,以及全面两孩政策背景下生育时间在提升生育水平方面的政策意义进行讨论.     

我国妇女平均生育年龄动态分析(1960——1981年)

<正> 平均生育年龄是描述某一妇女人群生育年龄水平的综合性指标,是研究妇女生育状况的一个重要参数。建国以来,特别是七十年代以来,我国妇女的平均生育年龄发生了很大的变化。分析研究这一变化过程的基本情况和规律,完整、系统地描述它发展的历史和现状,对于今后研究我国人口发展战略及制定人口政策具有重要的意义。妇女平均生育年龄因受婚姻状况、社会经济因素、文化、生育意愿、生育政策等多种因素的制约,所以,各个时期的妇女平均生育年龄不尽相同,各有特点。妇女平均生育年龄可以分胎次进行研究。这样,便于了解各个不同历史时期妇女各胎次平均生育年龄的变化规律,并且可以加深对妇女不分胎次计算的平均生育年龄运动规律的认识。本文试从1982年全国千分之一人口生育率抽样调查机器汇总资料,对我国妇女1960——1981年各胎次及不分胎次计算的平均生育年龄的动态变化作一初步分析。     

中国人口生育表的编制及诠释

以往在探讨人类生育模型时,均视妇女年龄为基本变量,由于中国从７０年代开始推行计划生育,妇女生育孩子的数量已不单纯取决于妇女的生育能力和家庭的生育意愿,因此,妇女的年龄在决定生育方面就不再是最重要的因素,而孩次反而成为生育模式之重要因素。本文以孩次为研究妇女生育的基本变量,采用生命表的原理,根据孩次来总结妇女的生育经历,提出了编制生育表的方法,并利用１９９０年全国第四次人口普查资料构建和解释了１９８９年中国人口生育表。     

妇女初婚年龄与生育行为的关系

<正> 结婚意味着一个新家庭的诞生,随之也产生了生育问题.我国现行计划生育政策规定,迟于法定婚龄(女20岁,男22岁)三年及以上结婚者即为晚婚,妇女在24岁以上生育者为晚育.由于各种原因,妇女初婚年龄仍然存在较大差别.初婚年龄与初育年龄、生育次数、流产次数等生育行为之间存在着怎样的关系呢?国外一些关于初婚年龄与生育行为的研究所得到的结论并不一致.我国由于存在着较大的城乡差别.加之计划生育政策的实施.初婚年龄与生育行为之间的关系必然有它自己的特点.本文使用1991年10月进行的“当代中国妇女地位调查”所获得的山东省的数据对妇女初婚年龄与生育行为之间的关系做出定量分析,并分别就城乡之间的差异进行了比较。“当代中国妇女地位调查”涉及山东省的十个县市的1440个完全家庭.调查向我们提供了每个家庭妇女的初婚年龄、初育年龄、生育次数、流产次数等数据资料。以下分别加以讨论分析.     

广东妇女文化素质与生育水平分析

对于不同文化程度的育龄妇女,其生育观念,优生节育知识及在社会和家庭中的角色地位等都存在较大差异,进而影响其生育水平。本文从妇女的婚育年龄,总和生育率,活产子女,生育孩次构成等方面,来分析广东妇女文化素质与生育水平的关系。     

西北农村妇女文化素质对生育水平及生育观念的影响分析——对甘肃中部地区520名农村妇女的调查

本文利用对甘肃中部地区10个贫困县的调查资料,采用SPSS统计方法,就贫困妇女文化程度与生育水平和生育观念的关系进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,妇女文化素质对初婚年龄、初育年龄和活产子女数都有不同程度的影响,且呈现出负相关关系;较高文化素质的妇女在生育目的方面传宗接代和养儿防老观念已经淡薄。生育子女性别仍具有较强的男孩偏好特征,理想子女数少生观念明显,尤其对于子女教育期望有较强的性别平等意识。     

利用人口普查资料测量小区域范围人群生育水平的方法

<正> 妇女生育水平是决定人口再生产过程的主要因素,是人口学和计划生育工作研究的重要内容。影响妇女生育状况的因素比较复杂,归纳起来大致可以分为两类:一类是人口构成因素,如总人口规模、育龄妇女占总人口的比例、育龄妇女的年龄构成,等等;另一类是社会因素,如生育政策、文化水平、经济条件、居住地点、职业分布、民族和宗教信仰,等等。人口构成因素是决定妇女生育状况的基础,社会因素则是影响生育状况的     

从生育水平估计到未来人口预测

在对不同调查普查数据分析基础上,估计了1980-2001年妇女总和生育率,1980-1990年生育水平保持在较高水平上、1991年生育水平低于或接近更替水平,然后保持下降趋势。通过调整“五普”年龄结构、假设未来生育水平和死亡水平,设计了三种人口预测情景方案,采用年龄递进模型,对未来50年中国大陆人口发展进行了预测,分析了未来人口总数、老年人口数、劳动力年龄人口数及生育旺盛期妇女数变化趋势,讨论了未来中国大陆人口可能达到的峰值人口数及实现零增长的时间。     

流动人口生育年龄对其子女随迁机会的影响

劳动年龄人口大规模流动,其子女的去向一直是学界关心的问题。已有研究证明相对于留守儿童,流动儿童身心发展较为健康。包括子女性别、年龄、流动人口自身职业、收入等在内的多种因素影响流动人口子女随迁的机会,但鲜见关于生育年龄对子女随迁机会影响作用的探讨。本文利用2014年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,以目前只生育了一个子女且子女年龄在3-14岁的流动妇女为研究对象,分析生育年龄对其子女随迁机会的影响作用。结果发现:在控制了社会人口学变量、流动特征及流入地政策环境等变量后,生育年龄仍可正向预测其子女的随迁机会,越晚生育子女随迁机会越大;与生育年龄相关的社会经济状况可提高流动人口子女随迁机会,但无法替代生育年龄对子女随迁机会的预测作用,晚育对流动人口子女随迁机会的促进作用可能同时得益于年龄增长所带来的心智成熟;流动人口的生育年龄、子女年龄与实际年龄之间存在密切关联,但流动人口的生育年龄比实际年龄更为单纯,对子女的随迁可能性有更大预测作用,该结论可推广至其他有关流动人口子女的研究中,使用流动人口的生育年龄而非实际年龄作为自变量将有助于区分父母特征和子女特征对流动人口子女相关因变量的影响作用。     

年龄组别生育率

由于妇女生育能力与年龄有密切的关系,所以,还必须通过不同年龄组别妇女的生育率的比较来了解妇女生育的趋势。年龄组别生育率指的是某一年龄组的妇女全年所生育的活产婴儿数与该年龄组妇女总人数的千分比(通常以五年为一组,15—49岁的育龄妇女共可分成七组;也有以某一年龄单独分组的,如25岁妇女为一组)。例如,拉美的特立尼达和多巴哥,1975年时其20—24岁年龄组的妇女的生育率为     

Stereotypes,Emotions, and Behaviors Toward Lesbians,Gay Men,Bisexual Women,and Bisexual Men

The utility of the Stereotype Content Model (Fiske, Cuddy, Glick, & Xu, 2002) and the Behaviors from Intergroup Affect and Stereotypes map (Cuddy, Fiske, & Glick, 2007) were examined in the context of heterosexuals’ attitudes toward sexual minorities. Heterosexual adults completed a survey measuring stereotypes, emotions, and behavioral tendencies toward lesbians, gay men, bisexual women, and bisexual men. Stereotype content differed across groups and showed “gendered” and “valenced” effects on emotions and behavioral tendencies. Competence predicted behaviors for men, whereas warmth and competence predicted behaviors for women, and, for the most part, more was better. Admiration and contempt mediated most of these relationships across most subgroups, but pity and envy played smaller roles for some subgroups. Across all groups, competence played a more predictive role than warmth.     

R&D, human capital, fertility, and growth

This paper analyzes how the decisions of individuals to have children and acquire skills affect long-term growth. We investigate a model in which technical progress, human capital, and population arise endogenously. In such an economy, the presence of distortions (such as monopolistic competition, knowledge spillover, and duplication effects) leads the decentralized long-run growth to be either insufficient or excessive. We show that this result depends on the relative contribution of population and human capital in the determination of long-term growth, i.e., on how the distortions affect the trade-off between the quantity of offsprings and the quality of the family members.     

“Difficult,Messy, Nasty,and Sensational”

Feminist publishing played an important role in the feminist art movement of the 1970s and into the 1980s, and Heresies: A Feminist Publication on Art and Politics was a key journal in this landscape. This paper argues that Heresies is important not only because it was a forum for some of the most influential feminist art women of the period, but because it experimented with an editorial structure that required participants to reckon with the discomforts of difference. Editors of the periodical took seriously the feminist critique of hierarchically structured organizational cultures and both promoted and practiced collective publishing. Moreover, through an emphasis on editorial statements, I consider how Heresies gives expression to the affective entanglements of the women involved in Heresies' specific form of collaboration and collective feminist politics. An examination of the editorials as sites of affective intensity helps to come to an understanding not of what women were thinking, writing, and making, but how they may have felt about their work and their relationships with women with whom they worked.     

Validity,facts, and values sans closure: Reply to Messick,Reckase, Moss,and Zimmerman

Social Indicators Research -     

Pills,Periods, and Postfeminism

Since the English translation of Elsimar Coutinho's Is Menstruation Obsolete? in 1999 and the introduction of cycle-stopping birth control pills in 2003, US women are increasingly advised that menstruation is not necessary for good health. The most widely distributed source of such messages is direct-to-consumer advertisements for birth control pills. The most recent television ads for Seasonique, the leading brand of cycle-stopping contraceptive in the US, minimize the pill's contraceptive function and focus instead on their effectiveness in reducing the frequency of menstruation. A close reading of these commercials reveals them to be an integral part of an emerging postfeminist media culture that attempts to solidify a new, neoliberal subjectivity for women. This subjectivity imposes an idealized, docile, non-menstruating feminine body, ready for full-time participation in the neoliberal economy.     

Media,State, and Patriarchy

This paper examines one of the dominant discourses that Jordanian media circulate on female virginity, which emphasises the state's various roles in relation to it. Relying on an analysis of virginity in online Jordanian media in the years 2008–2010, I argue that the Jordanian state is portrayed as having three main roles: that of the inspector, certifying the presence and/or authenticity of female virginity; that of the guard, protecting it from any measures or products that may disrupt the status quo; and sometimes, the state is portrayed as an ambivalent observer, flexibly but ambiguously, allowing some room for subversion. The media's portrayal of the state as a paternalistic authority over women's bodies betrays their own complicity in perpetuating the dominant virginity discourse at the expense of more progressive viewpoints.