Forecasting developments in consumerism and consumer protection

This paper proposes three areas in which consumerism may be forecast: cost-effectiveness, consumer representation and approaches to consumer research. The implications for management are spelled out and the responsibilities of marketers towards the fulfilment of consumer wants are reiterated. Critical evaluation of the recent activities and attitudes of consumerists in Europe and the U.S.A. indicate an approach to the forecasting of future consumerist activities. Corporate managements need to be able to plan for the likely impact of further consumerism and consumer protection measures and this paper indicates one method of doing so.     

Formal planning in major U.S. corporations

As the world about us changes, managers in all types of institutions try to cope in a variety of ways. In the early 1960s, many corporate managers realized they could not make sound decisions about future business activities in an expedient, reactive manner because their firms were growing very large and complex with new technologies, products, markets and competition to deal with. As a result, formal planning techniques which had been used in narrow functional applications were introduced on a much broader scale and formal long-range planning became popular. New corporate planning functions appeared in many companies, as well as new staff planning specialists and planning executives. The author conducted a field study on the design of these systems in the mid-1960s and he argues that they showed great promise for improved management.With this history in mind, we might ask why such subjects as ‘planning techniques’ and ‘problems of implementation’ are still topics of concern. It would seem that such techniques would be well known and established in most firms after 10–15 years. However, this is not the case, for during a second field study of corporate planning systems which was completed in 1976 the author found that many corporations, including some of the largest ones, had redesigned their planning systems in the early 1970s, essentially making a fresh start at formal long-range planning. (See Table 1).From his recent field study the author concludes that all corporations experience problems in implementing and using a formal planning system. The nature of these problems and some possible remedies are the subjects upon which this article focuses.     

Environmental forecasting and non-profit professional organizations

To undertake any kind of realistic planning activity, it is useful to have a long-term environmental forecast which provides the planner with an overall perspective. The planner will be functioning over the next decade in a very dynamic, complex and challenging political, economic, technological and social environment, and will require very effective planning efforts to cope with such changing environment. This article presents an approach and methodology that a planner could use in his/her organization's planning process. To the best of our knowledge, very few organizations—profit and non-profit oriented—undertake a formal long-term environmental forecast. This article might encourage several planners to examine this area of long range planning in their respective organizations. The long- term environmental forecasting approach presented in this article could be applied by planners in all types of organizations—small or large, profit oriented or non-profit oriented, old or new. This article, however, is based on a study which the authors did for a non-profit organization.     

How corporate planning responds to uncertainty

This article is based upon an SSRC research project into the influence of computer methods on decision making. During this research, information on the planning systems of a cross-section of British industry was obtained.The paper illustrates how managers in these firms were coping with planning in the present conditions of extreme uncertainty about the future, combined with adverse economic and business conditions. Conventional planning theory, together with some modern observations on it, are briefly described and then the paper shows how, in the firms visited, the structure of planning was more complex than this theory.It goes on to show that today's critical conditions were not leading to management putting aside their plans and computer models and “muddling through’. They were actually leading to an acceleration in the adoption of formal planning and decision making methods but in a somewhat different manner to conventional planning theory.Seven different modes of planning were identified with integrated operational planning being the most common, possibly the most essential to survival and sometimes the only planning possible into today's conditions. A trend to extend the operational plan to 2 to 3 years and to reduce the firm's long range plan from 5 to 3 years was also observed.Long range plans were being considered as planning and decision making tools and not as blue-prints of the firm's future, as accurate long range forecasting was impossible. Three types of strategic planning were identified with that carried out at intervals probably being the most appropriate for medium sized firms in today's conditions.     

Long range planning and regional policy 1 Britain— a European pioneer

What is the significance of “regional policy” in Europe today? It is certainly a political force. It was a major factor in the resignation of General de Gaulle last year and a European Conference of Ministers of Regional Planning is being convened to consider it this year. But as a subject it is not always easy to grasp. It seems to touch on many things-environment, employment, democratic participation and long range planning. Its actual shape varies from country to country. At the same time, many Europeans, including the Commission of the European Communities, are convinced that there are common European problems that urgently require a European regional policy to solve them. This article, which will be in four parts, begins by examining the experience of regional policy in the UK, France, Italy, Germany and the European Communities. Its last part will discuss the role of long range planning in achieving an effective regional policy at European level. The author is carrying out research into regional policies in the European Communities and the United Kingdom with financial support from the Social Science Research Council.     

Future forecasting with LEAP

A rapidly changing business environment has caused numerous firms to adopt some form of environmental assessment as part of their strategic planning process. Extrapolative techniques and trend analysis are useful when forecasting for the short-term and in comparatively stable environments. Futuristic methodologies are appropriate in turbulent environments with long-term planning requirements. The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting developed by the author, is explained in detail using examples from a recent study which used top level life insurance executives to predict the relative likelihood of occurrence of planning dates for a set of events in the socio-political environment of business.     

A modelling system for local government resource planning

A major problem in local government is how to maximise the effectiveness of resource allocation. Senior officers and members concerned with corporate and strategic issues must take account of contemporary information of considerable variety and combine this with estimates of the future in their attempts to achieve rational resource allocation. This article describes the development of an experimental computer based corporate modelling system at Clwyd County Council which was designed to support allocation decisions pertaining to a 5 year planning period. It is concluded that a firm basis was achieved for progress towards a comprehensive operational system.     

基于小波分析的石油价格长期趋势预测方法及其实证研究

本文将小波方法引入到油价长期趋势的预测中,利用小波多尺度分析的功能,提出了一种可以较为准确地根据油价时序列预测其未来长期走势的方法。这种方法的优点在于可以准确地提取油价的长期趋势,从总体上把握油价的非线性波动特征,从而能够很好地利用油价时间序列的历史数据,开展对未来一段时期内的多步预测。实证研究中,对Brent油价开展了时间跨度为1年的趋势预测,并将预测结果与ARIMA、GARCH、Holtwinters等方法得到的结果进行了比较,表明了基于小波分析的长期趋势预测法的预测能力是其他方法所不能比拟的,反映了本文所建立的石油价格长期趋势预测方法的有效性。     

Creating a European high-tech network: A regional approach to a more dynamic internal market

Network Europe or RECIT (Réseau Européen pour la Compétitivité et l'Innovation Technologique) is a collaborative venture of regional development agencies promoting business co-operation, R&D collaboration, and transfer of technology across the national frontiers of Europe. It is partly funded under the European Commission's SPRINT programme. In a short period of time, Network Europe and its progenitor organisations have implemented an active programme of co-operation between European regions.The authors, who belong to a constituent organization in Network Europe, set out the potential benefits of such inter-regional networks in Europe. They argue that if co-operation is not widely achieved soon, Europe may find itself on the losing side in the battle for competitivity in world markets.     

Internationalization from Central and Eastern Europe: A systematic literature review

Economic transition in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has led to a dramatic increase in CEE firms' participation in international markets. This applies to different types of firms – from large emerging market multinationals to small international new ventures. In this paper, we systematically review the research on CEE outward internationalization, which we define as internationalization of CEE-based firms in the form of exporting or FDI, and contribute to literature by providing a complete picture of the state of the art and outlining potential avenues for future research. We find that while the CEE region has been described as a fruitful ground for developing new and testing existing theories, it heavily loads on the latter. We suggest that greater reliance on theories and concepts from the field of entrepreneurship and a stronger focus on internationalization decision processes might further enrich our understanding of internationalization from CEE.     

Forecasting the future business environment— The state of the art

The future business environment, from the standpoint of the Corporation, encompasses both internal and external factors. These factors are also interrelated; thus the task of forecasting needs to be undertaken having in mind a multitude of elements which may interact. The author argues that, given this complex environment; corporations should support the planning operation if it is to develop and if they are to benefit from it. This support includes being open to recommendations made, for without it a planning group cannot function and the forecasting element loses momentum.     

If we cannot forecast how can we plan?

The purpose of this article is to deal directly and explicitly with the issues and problems currently facing forecasting, planning and strategy and to discuss how the challenges of the 1980s can be realistically and effectively met. The article deals with the various environmental changes that have taken place and their implications for planners; presents empirical evidence, originating from the literature and the area of psychology concerned with human judgment processes; and outlines several new ideas which contribute towards integrating forecasting, planning and strategy and dealing with the turbulent enviroment of the future.     

The changing pattern of distribution

Over the last decade the domestic distribution function has changed its internal and external appearance in order to meet the needs of the market, and enable companies to remain competitive in the market place.The object of this paper is threefold: firstly, to define what changes have occurred within the domestic distribution system; secondly, to identify the reasons for these changes; and thirdly, to forecast future developments within the marketing channel structure.Recently there have been considerable improvements in productivity within the distribution function leading to both absolute cost reductions and increases in customer service levels. Four main factors are considered to have influenced these changes. Firstly, improved management awareness in the role of the distribution functions. Secondly, a significant number of technical developments affecting the operating activities within the distribution function. Thirdly, structural change within the channel and co-operation between the independent channel memebers. Finally, the external channel environment has changed considerably as a result of urban renewal programmes and increasing Government constraints.The methods by which management could achieve change with the distribution function are identified and an outline is given of the problems which may be encountered in the process.It is forecast that planning activities will play an important role in developing the distribution system to meet the market needs of the future.     

Manpower in corporate planning

In this article, the author seeks to show the importance of giving thorough consideration to manpower in all planning activities, whether long or short term. He also emphasizes that manpower planning lies at the heart of all rational personnel activities, if they are to contribute as they should to the objectives of the organization. He outlines the elements of manpower planning, the main methods of forecasting demand and supply, both within and outside the organization and sets out the main elements of the manpower plan.     

Accuracy in the long run—Where are we now

Long-term forecasting must be viewed as informative speculation about the future. It should be credited with relatively little scientific authenticity. At the present stage of theory and data, no magic methods can be expected to overcome the problem of satisfactory forecasting. Improvement, however, is certainly not just a question of putting more and more variables and more and more numbers into a computer. Methods which indicate how to cushion against uncertainty and methods which bring a greater awareness of options for the future are essential if we are to gain greater control over events. The hazy images of the long-term future which are generated by scenario and other forms of analysis form the guidelines within which short and especially medium-term choices must be made. But in the end we must recognise the inherent limitations of forecasting and forecasting methods and think of forecasting not so much as a method of prediction but as a contribution to tackling the future in a more integrated sense.     

Production planning and control for remanufacturing: literature review and analysis

This article reviews the literature on production planning and control (PPC) for remanufacturing. The objectives are threefold: to determine whether the gaps identified by Guide (Guide Jr, V.D.R., 2000. Production planning and control for remanufacturing: industry practice and research needs. Journal of Operations Management, 18, 467–483) on the subject with respect to the main complicating characteristics of remanufacturing have been fulfilled; to classify the literature based on an appropriate structure to obtain a better understanding of the subject identifying sources of future research and to provide a useful source for scholars and practitioners. Seventy-six papers were examined and classified. It was found that none of the studies deals simultaneously with all of the complicating characteristics, and that more practical research is needed. In addition it was found that we lack studies regarding forecasting and aggregate planning considering disassembly of returned products, material matching restrictions or stochastic routings, master production scheduling considering material matching restrictions or stochastic routings, ordering system and capacity planning considering material matching restrictions and inventory control and management considering stochastic routings.     

Milton keynes: A model for regenerating our cities?

Milton Keynes is one of the most succesful of Britain's new towns. With new towns such as Peterborough and Telford, this can be seen as the latest stage of the New Town Movement which started at the end of World War II. Of these new towns, Milton Keynes is the largest and the most ambitious in its objectives. The problems facing the United Kingdom today are very much greater than when Milton Keynes was first started but, because of a flexible planning approach, the Development Corporation has responded to these changes and has established policies to assist in solving these problems. The key to this success is a more flexible and effective manufacturing base. Today we face unprecedented changes, unique in our history. Although manufacturing and services will provide the wealth to solve these problems, we will only succeed through co-operation between the private sector and local and national government. A study of Milton Keynes, its growth, objectives, successes and failures could provide a useful model for our future planning.     

Social forecasting: An integral part of corporate planning?

The increasing need for business to monitor the social dimensions of its environment and, hopefully make some forecasts of future trends has met with some constructive response from academics and consultants although not as yet on a very liberal scale. The published literature does not indicate to what extent companies in general attemp social forecasting and, where they do, the degree of integration which exists within their corporate planning systems. The authors, therefore, decided to survey a sample of British organizations to see if they could shed some light on these issues and thereby add some information to the excellent accounts of individual cases of social forecasting in, they suspect, the more advanced and atypical companies. The survey suggests a general picture of: awareness of the value of social forecasting; fairly widespread ignorance of the techniques which do exist, primitive though these may largely be; successful integration of social forecasting into the corporate planning systems of a substantial number of organizations but not in the majority.     

考虑促销因素的医药电商平台需求预测研究

医药电商平台需求预测涉及到药品自身属性及电商平台推出的各种促销活动,本文针对以上影响药品销量的因素提出了时间序列-机器学习组合模型对医药电商平台进行需求预测。传统研究促销因素的需求预测文献将促销阶段商品销量拆分为常规销量和促销增量的线性组合,本文首先拟合各药品促销阶段的常规销量,根据各药品常规销量时间序列数据及服用周期,使用SARIMA模型拟合药品的常规销量预测值,并将常规销量预测值与商品促销特征数据一同输入XGBoost模型进行集成学习预测。本文使用国内某医药电商平台真实销售数据测试组合模型的有效性,结果显示组合预测模型的预测效果相比其他三种传统预测模型更优。此外,本文验证了不同折扣力度下组合预测模型的有效性,以及促销变量在预测模型中的有效性,同时研究了数据共享策略在需求预测中的应用场景,结果显示预测模型在引入促销变量和采用数据共享策略后都能显著降低模型的预测误差。