Structural Decomposition of Exchange Rate Shocks in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation using SVAR Methodology

This study is an attempt to decompose nominal and real exchange rate movements in Pakistan into components induced by real and nominal shocks. Using the Blanchard and Quah (1989), famously known as B-Q, methodology for the period 2000:1–2009:12, the study finds that real shocks affect both nominal and real exchange rate. Similarly, the nominal shocks have a permanent effect on nominal exchange rate but have temporary effect on real exchange rate. Moreover, speed of convergence is different between the two rates affected by the same shock. These results put forward that nominal devaluation is not followed by real devaluation and resultantly will not improve trade balance situation. The policy makers, therefore, need to be careful while taking any decision regarding nominal devaluation as it may also lead to worsening of, instead of improvement in, trade balance.     

Inflation in Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis

The present research works with yearly data on backward looking measures of inflation i.e. GDP deflator series for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovakia. Because of the data limitations in the transition economies annual series are converted to smooth quarterly series before they are employed for inflation prognosis using state space models. The results show statistically significant evidence of time-varying volatility in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovakia using critical values obtained from χ₃² distributions. The results also show that the non-normality hypothesis cannot be rejected in all the series using critical values due McCulloch (J Bus Econ Stat 15:74–81, 1997). The efficiently estimated inflation forecast range between 0.925 for Bulgaria to 99.106 for Latvia. The estimated value of the characteristic exponent α of 2.000 for Hungary, and for the other countries having α equal to 1.999 shows tendency toward normal behavior in exception of Bulgaria, where α equals 1.861.      

The Effects of Technology Readiness on Customer Perceived Value: An Empirical Analysis

Technology infusion into service procedures has enhanced the rise of self-service technology. Technology-based services help businesses provide more flexibility, efficiency, and variety to customers. Therefore, it increases the customer??s perceived value from the business??s viewpoint. However, technology-based services are usually novel to most customers. As a result, customers who lack sufficient experience with using technology-based services may feel extreme frustration. The purpose of this study was to empirically examine how technology readiness (TR) affects customer perceived value (CPV). Data were collected from consumers who took the high speed rail in Taiwan in June 2009. As expected, optimism and innovativeness had positive impacts on CPV while discomfort and insecurity had negative impacts on CPV. The four TR dimensions all had significant, but not equal, impacts on CPV. Optimism had the highest impact on CPV. TR had no significant impact on emotional value. Social value and security value were significantly and positively affected by TR.     

新生代农民工的收入影响因素:基于社会交换理论的实证研究

新生代农民工的收入影响因素,是中国城镇化进程中的一项重要的研究议题。本次研究以社会交换理论为基本的理论视角,利用上海、深圳和天津等10个城市的问卷调查数据,运用OLS回归模型探讨新生代农民工收入的影响因素,发现地区生产总值、受教育程度、职务岗位的重要程度对新生代农民工的收入存在显著的正相关,劳动合同签订和劳动力资源的供不应求均有助于提高新生代农民工的收入,而单位工龄和工作更换次数则存在倒U型的影响效应。劳动关系的经济社会结构、劳资双方的资源依赖以及关系的稳定性,对新生代农民工的收入具有影响作用。     

Out-of-Home Placement of Children and Economic Factors: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to estimate the effects of income, maternal employment, family structure, and public policies on several measures of childrens living arrangements. We use both linear probability models and discrete-time event history models to explore the effects of these factors on: (1) the probability that a child is living out-of-home in a given year; (2) the probability that a child is removed from home in a given year, conditional on the child living at home in the previous year; (3) the probability that a child is removed from home for the first time; (4) the probability that a child is reunified with his/her biological parent(s) given that the child was living out-of-home in the previous year. We also analyze whether these estimates differ by types of out-of-home placements. Our results suggest that children from lower-income, single-mother, and mother–partner families are considerably more likely both to be living out-of-home and to be removed from home. A change in family structure also tends to place a child at higher risk of an out-of-home living arrangement, unless this transition functions to bring a childs father back into the household. Maternal work appears to increase the probability that a child lives at home. Additionally, once a removal has taken place, we do not find a relationship between income and the probability of a family reunification, but we do find that single-mother and mother–partner families are less likely to reunify. Finally, our analyses provide some evidence that welfare benefit levels are negatively related to out-of-home placements.Funding for this project was provided the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development through grant number 5 F32 HD044 302-02. We are grateful to Shoshana Grossbard-Shechtman, Jennifer Hill, Sanders Korenman, Leonard Lopoo, Katherine Magnuson, and Christina Paxson for their excellent comments and advice.JEL Classification: D10, I30, J13     

The Nature of Women's Rape Fantasies: An Analysis of Prevalence,Frequency, and Contents

This study evaluated the rape fantasies of female undergraduates (N = 355) using a fantasy checklist that reflected the legal definition of rape and a sexual fantasy log that included systematic prompts and self-ratings. Results indicated that 62% of women have had a rape fantasy, which is somewhat higher than previous estimates. For women who have had rape fantasies, the median frequency of these fantasies was about 4 times per year, with 14% of participants reporting that they had rape fantasies at least once a week. In contrast to previous research, which suggested that rape fantasies were either entirely aversive or entirely erotic, rape fantasies were found to exist on an erotic–aversive continuum, with 9% completely aversive, 45% completely erotic, and 46% both erotic and aversive.     

An Empirical Examination of the Characteristics,Consequences, and Causes of Elder Abuse in Nursing Homes

This study examines the characteristics, consequences, and potential causes of patient abuse in U.S. nursing homes. Using standard thematic content analysis, 488 incidents of abuse reported to Medicaid Fraud Control Units throughout the nation were reviewed. Results suggest that the presence of a witness, gender of the offender in relation to the victim, and job-related factors have important implications in the prevention of nursing home patient abuse.     

An Empirical Analysis of Image Restoration: Texaco's Racism Crisis

As in any social science, theory in public relations is advanced by making and testing predictions from that theory. This article reports the results of a study designed to test some claims advanced by image restoration theory, a theory that is being used and cited frequently in crisis management research. The experimental study subjects conclusions from a case study to empirical analysis. More precisely, claims about the effectiveness of various image restoration strategies used in Texaco's efforts to combat a racism incident are tested. The results suggest that many conclusions drawn from image restoration case studies should be taken only as tentative. The results recommend a more rigorous application of image restoration theory to unpack its utility for crisis management and public relations.     

School Refusal An Empirical Study and System Analysis

The empirical, clinical and theoretical literature on School Refusal is reviewed. A study is reported in which a comprehensive group of forty severe school refusers was compared with a matched control group. They differed on a wide range of variables. The school refusing children were more depressed, anxious, introverted, neurotic, over protected and less intelligent. Their parents' educational attainment and levels of intelligence were lower; they were older and had larger families; father's occupational status was lower and he was often absent from home. The results are discussed. A three level system theory interpretation is presented:

• (i) child;
• (ii) family;
• (iii) beyond the family.

Some therapeutic implications are offered.     

Stock Market and Aggregate Investment Behavior in Malaysia: An Empirical Analysis

The present paper analyzes the role of stock market, more specifically real stock prices and stock market uncertainty/volatility, on aggregate investment behavior for an emerging market, Malaysia. Employing the autoregressive distributed lags approach to cointegration test, the paper establishes a long run equilibrium that ties the aggregate investment to its determinants—real income, real stock prices, real lending rate and stock market volatility. In the long run, we document a positive relation between aggregate investment and real stock prices and a negative relation between aggregate investment and stock market volatility. These results are further supported by our analyses of their dynamic interactions based on Granger causality and impulse-response functions. Based on the results, the real stock market prices, which has yet reached the level recorded prior to the crisis, may have explained the low investment in Malaysia after the Asian crisis. Moreover, the stock market volatility can also post a threat to the investment performance.     

Financial Reporting Lags in the Non-profit Sector: An Empirical Analysis

We examine financial reporting lags among a large sample of Belgian non-profit organizations (NPOs). Doing so, we add to the literature on financial reporting and accountability in the non-profit sector. Next to drivers of the financial reporting lag that have been identified in prior studies based on private firms (e.g., delaying the disclosure of bad news), we find that the way of funding the NPO (i.e., reliance upon donations and/or grants) and its specific area of activity are significantly related to the financial reporting lag. Our results also suggest that important changes in accounting regulation significantly delay the financial reporting process. Importantly, we note that 17.2 % of the sample organizations do not file their financial statements within the legal time span.     

汽油价格变化与城市蔓延:基于中国四大直辖市的实证分析

国外研究表明,汽油价格变化是影响城市蔓延的重要因素之一。本文以我国的北京、上海、天津和重庆等四个直辖市为例,实证检验了在直辖市层面上的汽油价格变化对城市蔓延的具体影响。研究结果表明:(1)汽油价格上升对城市蔓延具有显著的抑制作用;(2)与汽油价格密切相关的柴油价格变化对城市蔓延的影响并不显著;(3)除了汽油价格之外,公共交通、房地产投资和工业发展对城市蔓延也具有明显的影响。在此基础上,得出了一些相应的政策启示。     

Multifaceted Reality of Juvenile Delinquency: An Empirical Analysis of Structural Theories and Literature

The adolescent’s world of delinquent behaviors and risk and protective factors around each behavior is very complicated and articulating certain characteristics or contents of effective programs thus has been intricate. This paper reports the findings of a study examining an original model with the three problems of major juvenile delinquent behaviors: substance abuse, tobacco smoking and violent behavior, by testing their risk/protective factors derived from theories and past empirical studies. The satisfactory model fit was confirmed with the Structural Equation Modeling and structure of a multidimensional construct in the hypothesized model, which showed specified causal linkage, was validated. The authors also found 10 mediating effects among risk/protective factors either with theoretical/past literature result rationale or authors assumptions which led both to confirmatory and new findings.     

Migration Differentials in Women's Market Employment: An Empirical and Multicultural Analysis1

This paper examines the differences associated with the patterns and determinants of women's market employment by migration status and ethnic origin. Considering “ethnic employment” as an important issue in the immigrant labor market assimilation approach and migrants’ success in the labor market as a key indication of their settlement in the host country, the results of this paper provide a basis to reassess the patterns and determinants associated with the settlement of female migrants in the multiethnic and multicultural labor market of Australia as “a particularly interesting society in which to examine how immigrant women adapt to [a] new labour market” ( Evans, 1984 :1063).     

Exploitation in Contemporary Capitalism: An Empirical Analysis of the Case of Taiwan

Abstract

Using data for manufacturing firms in Taiwan, we developed a measure of exploitation and analyzed its prevalence in the labor force. Our results indicated that almost two-thirds of the firms in our sample exploit at least some of their workers. For these firms, the average profit rate is 34 percent, but three-fourths of this figure derives from the expropriated wages of their workers. Female and blue-collar workers are the largest groups that are underpaid relative to their productivity (that is, exploited). Managers, professionals, and workers with seniority are not exploited by our definition because our data showed that these groups are paid according to the market value of their productivity, at least on average. Our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of the empirical investigation of exploitation, which should be further considered in future research.     

An Empirical Analysis of Microcredit Repayment in Southwestern Nigeria

Abstract

This paper provides empirical analysis of microcredit repayment in Southwestern Nigeria. Multistage stratified random sampling procedure was used to collect data from 200 members of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in the study area. Linear multiple regression was used to determine the variables that affected microcredit repayment.

The mean weekly contribution of the members of microfinance nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in groups was N = 772.62 and the mean borrowing was N = 23, 55.25 per annum. On the average, they pay 90 percent of their microcredit as at when due. The Fvalues indicated that the microcredit repayment model had good fit (p = 0.01) with an adjusted R² of f.36. The variables that significantly influence repayment: income, distance between dwelling place and bank, amount of business investment, socio-cultural expenses, amount of loan borrowed, access to business information, penalty for lateness to group meetings, membership of cooperative society, number of days between loan application and disbursement and poverty indicator were analyzed.

Poverty was found to hamper repayment. Nevertheless, the study supports findings that members of microfinance groups are creditworthy.     

Book Review: The Economics of Voluntary Behavior: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

Election Predictions: An Empirical Assessment

Examination of 155 poll forecasts in 68 national elections since1949 shows that errors average nearly twice what statisticaltheory would indicate. Polls predict the division of vote betweenmajor parties better than individual party percentages, leadingto 85 percent success in picking the winner. The worst failuresoccurred in a few elections where most polls went wrong. Liberalparty votes are correctly forecast, conservatives slightly underestimated.Improved polling methods have not led to better forecasts.