我国金融控制政策成因的博弈分析

本文根据金融控制与风险化解理论,提出我国实行的是金融控制政策;并通过与传统金融发展理论的比较,指出我国金融控制政策的特点.通过建立博弈模型,分析了这一政策形成的原因与机制,提出我国的金融控制政策形成是中央银行、商业银行和企业三方博弈的结果;最后,根据分析提出了相关的政策建议.     

论静态与动态博弈中的逻辑推理

博弈研究的目的是揭示人们互动行为的逻辑规律.不论是双主体的零和博奔与多主体的非零和博弈,还是不完美信息的静态、动态博弈与完美信息的静态、动态博弈,它们的实质都是策略分析与逻辑推理的运用.文章在简要介绍蓬勃兴起的博弈逻辑基础上,论述了静态博弈与动态博弈中的逻辑推理.     

风险企业与投资公司的博弈分析

风险企业和投资公司在完全信息条件下存在静态博弈均衡和动态博弈均衡 ,二者既有相同点 ,又有差异。在其他条件不变的情况下 ,商业计划书的水平应与风险企业资金缺口的大小成正比。动态博弈的先动优势均衡点的变化是由风险企业的先动优势决定的。     

《中国金融改革研究》简介

中国社会科学院财贸所李扬研究员撰写的《中国金融改革研究》于1999年4月由江苏人民出版社出版。该书汇集了作者近20年的研究心得,颇有独到见解。 全书分为四个部分。导论部分,作者以时间为序,描述性地对中国金融改革涉及的五大主要领域——中央银行和货币政策、金融组织体系、货币市场、资本市场、外汇体制     

浅析我国存款保险制度的构建

面对备受考验的国际金融局势,长期以来,我国实际上实行的一直是隐性的存款保险制度。在经营不善的金融机构退出市场过程中,往往是由中央银行和各级地方政府来为个人债务的清偿"买单"。此种模式不仅给各级财政带来了沉重负担,而且导致中央银行货币政策目标的扭曲。随着我国利率市场化改革的推进,建立符合本国国情的存款保险制度已成为健全国家金融安全网的重中之重。     

80年代中期以来日本银行货币政策体系的变革

80年代中期以来,日本银行(日本的中央银行,以下简称日银)货币政策体系发生了变革,其重要原因是日本金融自由化的迅速展开。日本金融管制的放松即金融自由化始于70年代中期,而它的全面展开和迅速发展则是80年代中期以后的事情。1984年5月29日日本大藏省公布了由日美共同组建的“日元美元委员会”起草的《金融自由化与日元国际化的现状与展望》     

我国中央银行开展公开市场业务问题探讨

我国中央银行引入和开展公开市场业务，是加强宏观金融间接调控、完善我国金融市场、协调财政政策和货币政策的需要，目前基本有利条件已具备，也有不少限制因素制约，为此要从这一实际出发，选择运用公开市场业务的策略。     

日本货币政策与宏观经济管理

货币政策(日本称金融政策)是西方国家进行总需求管理而重点运用的宏观经济政策之一;是在市场机制起支配作用的条件下,国家从宏观上对经济活动实行间接控制的一项重要的经济政策。日本同其它主要西方国家一样,在宏观经济管理方面,除财政政策外,也充分运用货币政策对总需求进行管理。在日本,日本银行(日本的中央银行以下简称日银)是负     

新世纪货币政策管理的三个方向及其对我国的借鉴意义

货币政策一直是货币经济学家以及中央银行界的热点话题.进入新世纪,货币政策管理出现了前所有未有的大发展.最为明显的是下面三个方面:货币政策管理框架出现重大发展,即通货膨胀目标制度从无到有,对货币政策管理影响越来越大;货币政策制定与管理从神秘走向透明,透明度成为货币政策管理架构的重要组成部分;货币政策决策一改过去以个人单独决策为主导的模式,转变为普遍以货币政策委员会决策为主导.这些新方向对我国未来货币政策管理具有重要的借鉴意义.     

孙中山与中国金融近代化

孙中山在以广州为策源地所进行的包括成立中央银行在内的一系列金融实践活动,是中国金融近代化的重要组成部分,为中国金融现代化打下了坚实的物质基础、留下了宝贵的实践经验.     

Pre- versus post-crisis central banking in Qatar

In the years before the global financial crisis of 2008–2010, Qatar experienced a huge build-up of liquidity surplus in the banking system, mainly driven by surging net capital inflows. This paper identifies various sources of interbank liquidity in Qatar and discusses the various implications of structural primary liquidity surplus for the money market in particular and the economy at large. The paper attempts to evaluate the Qatar Central Bank policy making and conduct during the pre- and post-crisis periods within a framework of the Austrian monetary overinvestment theories, and concludes that the central bank had forcibly committed several forced monetary policy mistakes, which resulted in a breakdown in the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This led to the inability of the central bank to control the interbank interest rate and to an accelerating inflation rate during the pre-crisis years. In contrast, a dramatic change in the central bank's monetary policy framework and a deliberate monetary policy mistake on behalf of the central bank resulted in a restoration of the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, stabilization of the interbank interest rate close to the central bank's policy rate and a sharp deceleration in the inflation rate in the post-crisis period. The paper concludes by offering brief policy recommendations.     

我国央行房贷政策的特点、问题及对策

近年来,中国房地产过热的现象已引起学术界及决策层的高度重视,中央银行也多次采取相关措施试图抑制房地产的进一步升温,进而最大限度的降低由此带来的负面影响。从传统的经济学角度看,当前央行政策并无不妥,但若从当代金融学(特别是近20年来西方较为前沿的金融学理论)角度来看,目前我国的货币政策的确存在一定问题:未能正确反映投资成本与投资预期的关系、政策对象界定不清、头寸体系过于单一,缺乏相关头寸支持等。     

我国货币政策非对称性效应——基于本轮经济衰退的政策效果研究

货币政策的非对称性效应这个经过大量实证研究得到检验的结论,却在我国本轮经济衰退中被打破了.本轮自2008年底开始的经济衰退,在“适度宽松的货币政策”及积极财政政策的配合作用下,效果明显.文章主要就我国货币政策传导的主要渠道——信贷渠道进行了阐述,认为在体制转轨时期地方政府强烈的促进经济增长的冲动、商业银行的积极配合,使...     

Central bank credibility and monetary policy in Indonesia

This paper examines the role of central bank credibility in achieving an inflation target and proposes monetary policy rules for Indonesia. Towards that end, we construct and estimate a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy by adapting the theoretical underpinnings of the well-known Batini–Haldane model, along with the Taylor policy rule. Our results indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian central bank to bolster its credibility in order to achieve a lower inflation rate. The inflation–output volatility trade-off frontier we derived from the SSMM shows that a monetary policy rule that targets both inflation and output gaps will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the rule as an additional feedback variable warrants consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.     

Alternative specifications of the demand for money and their implications for forecasting and policy analysis with large macroeconomic models

The demand for money is an important function in large macroeconomic models because of its central role in monetary policy. The interest rate responsiveness of money demand determines the interest rate changes consistent with the initial change in monetary policy and the subsequent changes on aggregate demand and the price level. This paper uses the DRI macroeconometric model to investigate these issues, finding that the model's predictive power and its estimates of the relative potency of monetary and fiscal policy are dependent upon the specification of the money demand function.     

Why was the ECB’s reaction to Covid-19 crisis faster than after the 2008 financial crash?

At the time of the financial crises of 2008 and 2010–11 the ECB reacted with an extremely cautious gradualism. This behaviour is attributable to the slower learning process that characterizes a central bank of a monetary union composed of countries with fiscal sovereignty compared to other central banks. In sharp contrast to the previous crises, the ECB reacted promptly to the COVID-19 crisis. This change in behaviour is explained here by the learning process about the effects on monetary policy transmission of the increased financial fragmentation of the eurozone over the last decade.     

Monetary policy,trade-offs and the transmission of UK Monetary Policy

We provide a new method to model changes in monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE) as well as the impact of these changes on UK economy. This is important as central bankers have widened the range of instruments in their monetary policy toolbox. Specifically, we estimate a proxy for the monetary policy stance and then analyse a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility model to explain the BoE’s trade-offs when making policy decisions and as well as to demonstrate dynamic impacts of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth. The empirical results show that our estimated monetary policy proxy is better at capturing the BoE’s policy when the interest rate lower bound becomes binding.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy in small open economies

This paper examines the relative effectiveness of the use of direct and indirect monetary policy instruments in Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, by estimating a restricted Vector Autoregressive model with Exogenous Variables (VARX). The model captures the dynamic interaction of the key sectors in the economy and it accounts for the fact that the banking system in those countries is characterized by high levels of excess reserves. Also, the study assumes that the central bank conducts monetary policy using a Taylor-type rule, and it evaluates the effects of a reserve requirement policy. The results show that although a positive shock to the policy interest rate has a direct effect on commercial banks’ interest rates, there is a weak transmission to the real variables. Furthermore, an increase in the required reserve ratio is successful in reducing private sector credit and excess reserves, while at the same time alleviating pressures on the exchange rate. The findings therefore indicate that central banks in small open economies should consider using reserve requirements as a complement to interest rate policy, to achieve their macroeconomic objectives.     

Monetary policy and its transmission mechanisms in Eritrea

The main purpose of this study is to identify the best practices of monetary policy implementation in the Eritrean economy. As such, the paper examines what kind of monetary policy and transmission mechanisms are relevant to the Eritrean economy. It also addresses which channels are effective and which are not and why. Vector Autoregressive modelling is employed over the study period 1996Q1–2008Q4. This paper addresses the argument that the bank lending is the sole functioning channel in low income economies. We find that interest rate and official exchange rate channels are inoperative. However, effective exchange rate and credit channels exist through the black foreign exchange market and credit issued to the government sector. The main policy implication of this study is that the Bank of Eritrea might be able to control inflation through manipulating the reserve requirement ratio.     

民国时期广州银行业风险控制的三道防线

地处中国南部边陲的广州远离皇权中心而毗邻港澳、连接南洋等地,其金融历来自成一派。清末民国时期,这里聚集了众多的银行机构,诞生了中国历史上第一家国家中央银行。而在中国历史上发生过的两次银行停业倒闭高潮中的第二次却是以广东银行的停业为标志的。目前,我国对民营银行的受理已全面开闸,民间资本进入银行业的渠道和机构类型已全部开放。开办银行或成为银行股东于国人而言已是美梦成真了。而处在国民经济核心地位的银行,其经营的成败将会对一国乃至一个地区的经济稳定产生重大影响,开办银行既需要资本更需要智慧。本文通过大量鲜活的一手史料,再现了清末民国时期新型商业银行在广州设立时的艰辛、开业时的盛况、倒闭时的悲哀,进一步理清了广州银行业在排除道德风险、减少操作风险和消除信用风险中所形成的三道防线的脉络,为金融管理当局以及有志进军金融业的民营企业家提供可资借鉴的历史经验。