The Fertility Revolution in China——An Interview with Prof.Li Jianmin

Li Jianmin,PhD of economics,born in 1955, currently is professor in Population and Development Institute of Nankai University, Vice President of China Population Association, and member of Expert Committee of National Population and Family Planning Commission.He used to be head of Population and Development Institute of Nankai University from 1993 to 2004.He has undertaken many important research programs of National Social Science Foundation, Natural Science Foundation and Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Science of Ministry of Education,as well as those of     

Rosted Leaves Redder Than February Flowers——Thoughts after Reading Mr. Yu Honglin's Painting Collection

正A day in mid-May this year,Mr.Yu Honglin came to the Oriental Painting and Calligraphy House with his latest published painting and calligraphy collection book.It makes me very excited to share his artistic achievement with you.Mr Yu’s creation style is skillful,confi dent,substantial and vivid.In my opinion,both painting and calligraphy pay attention to brushwork.Meaningful lines are the original starting point of arts.Use Mr.Yu’s seal     

Population HeaIth is the Key Foundation of Social Development——An interview with Prof. ZHENG Xiaoying

Prof.ZHENG Xiaoying,born in 1956,is head of Population Research Institute in Peking University,head of Reproductive Health and Population Science Cooperation Center of WHO, PHD Supervisor in Peking University,Special-     

Great Skill Engenders Bravery and Skill Grows with Bravery——Character and Painting of Mr.Ren Changjiu

正In the contemporary artistic circle,it is not rare for a person at the age of knowing his destiny to start learning painting and be a professional.It is also not at all surprising that one close to 60 years old starts to study painting art in a professional art school.Yet,we will consider the idea and action too naive like The Arabian Nights or a fool's paradise,if one of our friends just starts learning painting for only three or four years,abandons his family and career,goes to Beijing alone to find no     

China Commemorates T.R.Malthus

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What's happening to U.S. family size?

A telephone survey by Zero Population Growth demographers found that birthrates have risen slightly for the 1st quarter of 1977. Average estimated family size is now 1.85 children per women compared with 1.77 for the 1st quarter of 1976. For all of 1976 the total fertility rate was 1.76 children per woman. It is predicted, on the basis of the informal survey, that the total fertility rate will rise to 2.0 or 2.1 children by the early or mid-1980s. In 1976, married women expected an average of 2.4 children each. Wives 18-24 expected 2.1 children each while older women (35-39) expected 3.0. Many women are delaying births. Wives 18-24 have an average of .8 children each, wives 25-29 have 1.6 children each. Campbell Gibson, former chief of the projections branch of the Census Bureau, believes births will not reach levels of expectations becuase of the financial, employment, and social problems the huge Baby Boom age group faces throughout its lifetime. The undecided women in the surveys reduce the predictive value. 18% of single women aged 14-39 and 8% of married women in the same age group said they were uncertain about how many children they would have. Since the personalitites and motivations of this undecided group are similar to those who expect to remain childless, it is possible that this group will have fewer children. Such nondemographic factors as media publicity about low fertility rates may inspire some couples to have children. Conversely, the postponement of births may enable couples to become comfortable with a certain lifestyle and these couples may not have as many children as they expect. Social norms are already changing. The percent of wives expecting to be childless rose from 1.3 to 4.1% between 1967-1975. Those expecting only 1 child rose from 6.1 to 11.2%.     

Comment on ‘The random variation in rates based on total enumeration of events’ by J. R. Udry,C. Teddlie,C. M. Suchindran

This comment builds on the work of Udry et al., developing a model of random variation of vital rates in small geographical areas. The model is based on the division of the variance of vital rates into three parts; that which would occur in a homogenous population; that due to population heterogeneity; and that due to yearly fluctuations in the underlying basis for the mean value of the probability of the vital event in question. Contrary to Udry et al., this model demonstrates that population heterogeneity must decrease the overall vital rate variance. Using birth rates presented in Udry et al., a test of the new model demonstrates the importance of the third factor, yearly fluctuations, in determining year-to-year variation in birth rates.     

Anti-homosexual prejudice . . . as opposed to what? Queer theory and the social psychology of anti-homosexual attitudes

This article uses Sedgwick's distinction between minoritizing and universalizing theories of sexuality to analyze variability in social psychologists' studies of anti-homosexual prejudice, focusing on studies of attitudes. Anti-homosexual prejudice was initially defined in conversation with gay liberationists and presumed, among other things, that fear of homoerotic potential was present in all persons. Later social psychologists theorized anti-homosexual prejudice in strict minoritizing terms: as prejudice towards a distinct out-group. In the first section of this paper we discuss corresponding shifts in the conceptualization of anti-homosexual attitudes. Next, using a universalizing framework, we re-interpret experiments on behavioral aspects of anti-homosexual attitudes which were originally conceptualized using a minoritizing framework, and suggest avenues for future research. Finally, we examine how queer theory might enrich this area of social psychological inquiry by challenging assumptions about the politics of doing scientific work and the utility of identity-based sexual politics.     

The population statistics of China,A.D. 2–1953

Chinese population statistics are collated from the time of the Western Han Dynasty (A.D. 2) to 19 5 3, including statistics of population and households for provinces as well as for China as a whole. Evidence bearing on the definitions of the statistics, methods of compilation, and reliability of the figures as measures of population size and change, is summarized. An "emended series " of population totals for China proper, A.D. 2 to 1953 is presented, excluding figures which are clearly defective.     

Will They Stay? Foreign-Born Out-Migration from New U.S. Destinations

Immigrants living in new destinations in 1995 were 2.5 times more likely to have migrated to another labor market by 2000 as immigrants living in traditional places. The researchers look at two competing explanations for immigrants’ differential internal migration patterns, namely that immigrants prefer areas with relatively large nativity concentrations which provide them with social support versus immigrants are target earners who prefer robust labor markets with strong employment growth and high wages. Utilizing confidential Census data for 1990 and 2000, the authors develop new destination classifications for 741 labor markets that take into account the differential growth and composition characteristics of 24 Asian, Latin American and Caribbean immigrant groups living in those markets. The empirical analysis of labor market out-migration indicates that immigrants do not see internal migration as an either/or choice between economics and social support but prefer residence places that allow them to maximize both conditions.     

No.1 Poultry Farmer

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New Development of China''''s Population Programme———Excerpts from a Spech by Mme.Peng Peiyun at UNFPA Headquarters

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Immigrant residential segregation in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1990–2000

This paper examines the extent of spatial assimilation among immigrants of different racial and ethnic origins. We use restricted data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses to calculate the levels of dissimilarity by race and Hispanic origin, nativity, and year of entry, and then run multivariate models to examine these relationships. The findings provide broad support for spatial assimilation theory. Foreign-born Hispanics, Asians, and blacks are more segregated from native-born non-Hispanic whites than are the U.S.-born of these groups. The patterns for Hispanics and Asians can be explained by the average characteristics of the foreign-born that are generally associated with higher levels of segregation, such as lower levels of income, English language ability, and home ownership. We also find that immigrants who have been in the United States for longer periods are generally less segregated than new arrivals, and once again, much of this difference can be attributed to the characteristics of immigrants. However, patterns also vary across groups. Levels of segregation are much higher for black immigrants than for Asian, Hispanic, and white immigrants. In addition, because black immigrants are, on average, of higher socioeconomic status than native-born blacks, such characteristics do not help explain their very high levels of segregation.     

The 1990 U.S. census: how good is good enough?

The 1990 US census is likely to be the most accurate in the nation's history, but it may miss 2 or 3 million people, most of them poor and many of them black or Hispanic. Because the population census is the basis for political apportionment and determines the allocation of a growing share of federal funds to localities and public programs, undercoverage is of great concern to cities, states, and the groups most affected. The statistical methods developed to measure the extent of undercounting in the census have become increasingly reliable, but the official census count has never before been adjusted on the basis of these methods. This article describes plans for the 1990 census and examines a growing controversy over adjustment for an undercount.     

Does the Hispanic Paradox in U.S. Adult Mortality Extend to Disability?

Studies consistently document a Hispanic paradox in U.S. adult mortality, whereby Hispanics have similar or lower mortality rates than non-Hispanic whites despite lower socioeconomic status. This study extends this line of inquiry to disability, especially among foreign-born Hispanics, since their advantaged mortality seemingly should be paired with health advantages more generally. We also assess whether the paradox extends to U.S.-born Hispanics to evaluate the effect of nativity. We calculate multistate life tables of life expectancy with disability to assess whether racial/ethnic and nativity differences in the length of disability-free life parallel differences in overall life expectancy. Our results document a Hispanic paradox in mortality for foreign-born and U.S.-born Hispanics. However, Hispanics’ low mortality rates are not matched by low disability rates. Their disability rates are substantially higher than those of non-Hispanic whites and generally similar to those of non-Hispanic blacks. The result is a protracted period of disabled life expectancy for Hispanics, both foreign- and U.S.-born.     

Social indicators of marital instability,U.S.A., 1920–1969

A social indicators model which included demographic variables (birth rate and aged child ratio), economic variable (unemployment) and marriage rates (control variable) was utilized in explaining changes in divorce rates over time. Analysis of time series data for two distinctive periods in the U.S.A. (1920–1940 and 1946–1969) revealed the following significant results:

1. Demographic changes in the age structure of the population while controlling for marriage rates explains significantly larger amounts of the variance in marital instability than economic changes alone (unemployment).
2. In the post-World War II era unemployment was not found to be a statistically significant predictor of marital instability when control for demographic changes were established.
3. In the post-World War II era marriage rates appear to be a significant predictor of divorce rates when control for demographic changes were maintained.
4. In the post-World War II era marriage rates were found to be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions than marital instability (divorce rate).