Improving communication via quantitative management

Villa Soft Drinks Ltd, established in 1884, manufactures and bottles spring waters and carbonates for both the growing adult soft drinks market and the more traditional soft drinks market. The company employs just over 100 people split between the manufacturing site in Sunderland and the head office and distribution centre in Washington. One of the fundamental problems affecting the day-to-day running of Villa, and most companies, is communication. There is a lack of awareness of the impact that changes in one department have on other departments (e.g. if production efficiency is increased by 10%, what impact will this have on warehousing?). Villa had recently identified key performance indicators (KPIs) to monitor all aspects of manufacturing performance on a regular basis. This enabled the current production situation to be evaluated and helped familiarize staff with charts and measurements. The use of Pareto analysis and problem solving techniques helped to boost efficiency and utilization. Key performance indicators were then developed in most other departments and are monitored and displayed regularly. The KPIs can be used further to improve transparency across the company by incorporating them in an interactive, interpretative tool to aid communication and understanding at all levels of the company. Individual departmental flow diagrams will be linked together to represent how the company operates. The diagrams will include both material flow and information flow. These data will then be organized in a software package and the end result will be a fully integrated simulation of the company in which any variable can be altered to demonstrate the effect this has on other departments and therefore the company as a whole. This will be an extremely valuable tool for the company as it will have many different applications, such as calculating manning requirements, identifying potential cycle time reductions and optimizing warehouse space.     

CAPABILITY MEASURES FOR m-DEPENDENT STATIONARY PROCESSES

Process capability indices, providing numerical measures on process potential and process performance, have received substantial research attention. Most research assumes that the process is normally distributed and the process data are independent. In real-world applications such as chemical, soft drinks, or tobacco/cigaratte manufacturing processes, process data are often auto-correlated. In this paper, we consider the capability indices Cp, Cpk, Cpm, Cpmk for strictly m-dependent stationary processes. We investigate the statistical properties of their natural estimators. We derive the asymptotic distributions, and establish confidence intervals so that capability testing can be performed.     

Providing Consulting Experiences Through Role Playing in a Graduate Statistics Course

An effective method for improving the communication skills of graduate students in statistics and biostatistics is to provide consultations with non‐statistical researchers. Unfortunately, those experiences can be difficult to arrange or occur too infrequently to be reliable. The current study sought to help students develop both written and oral communication skills within an existing graduate biostatistics course by having students partake in role‐playing consultations. Though the class size was small, the students felt these activities helped improve their oral and written communication skills, and made them more aware of a biostatistician's role in consulting. There was also modest improvement in the students perceived function as a consulting biostatistician. Simulated consultations can be an effective educational tool for promoting the development of soft skills necessary for developing successful statisticians, can be implemented in existing courses, and do not require reliance upon external collaborators. Embedding these types of exercises within an existing curriculum can also be a cost‐effective alternative for programs that do not have formal consulting training.     

移动通信产业市场结构与绩效关系研究——基于国际面板数据的实证分析

移动通信产业作为典型的政府管制产业,其市场结构与市场绩效的关系是管制部门制定管制政策的重要依据。以SCP范式为分析框架,运用42个国家2004-2009年的季度面板数据,研究了移动通信产业的市场结构与绩效之间的关系。实证研究显示：在控制了其他因素之后,赫希曼-赫菲德尔指数（HHI）与市场绩效呈现正向关系,表明集中的市场结构可以带来垄断利润;市场绩效与用户规模呈现非线性的倒U型关系,但规模经济仅在一定范围内存在,过大的规模反而带来不经济。     

中国上市公司并购绩效的实证研究

市场总体上对并购事件产生了积极的反应,在并购日后几天,出现了超额收益;并购当年和第一年业绩好转,得到了短期改善,但是随着时间的推移,仅仅在并购后的第二年就有了下滑的趋势。在四种并购类型的样本分析中,可以看出购买股权和母公司改造类上市公司的业绩改善明显,而无偿划拨类上市公司无明显变化,再次说明政府控制决策的影响是短期的,不能真正提高市场的有效机制。     

SPC—making it work for the gas transportation business

Transco is the main provider of gas transportation to domestic and commercial customers in mainland Britain. Gas arrives in Britain at a steady rate but is consumed with a distinct diurnal pattern. The safe and timely movement of gas from arrival at the beach in various places in Britain to delivery at burners is the main driver for System Operations. The movement of gas is meticulously controlled and monitored resulting in a mass of information on pressure, flow and temperature. Gas is stored temporarily in various storage vessels and is moved around the pipes and in and out of storage as demand dictates. Demand is mostly dictated by the weather and is therefore subject to much variation. Transco and its predecessors have been transporting gas for over 50 years and are very successful as judged by their excellent safety record and the continual delivery of gas. Nevertheless, the company wished to improve itself and make further use of the many measurements collected. SPC is ideal for improving communication and understanding through increased visibility of data. All companies have special issues to face when they implement SPC, and this paper describes the way these were dealt with in System Operations and the lessons learnt along the way. The first part describes how performance measures were chosen for investigation. It includes a novel use of correlation between output and day-to-day conditions, which was successfully turned into a measure to check the uncheckable. The second part is about the issues involved with early application of SPC when features of the system are still unexplained. SPC has helped enhance understanding of the complex transportation process, encouraged team work, improved performance and provided an objective means of decision making.     

SPC—making it work for the gas transportation business

Transco is the main provider of gas transportation to domestic and commercial customers in mainland Britain. Gas arrives in Britain at a steady rate but is consumed with a distinct diurnal pattern. The safe and timely movement of gas from arrival at the beach in various places in Britain to delivery at burners is the main driver for System Operations. The movement of gas is meticulously controlled and monitored resulting in a mass of information on pressure, flow and temperature. Gas is stored temporarily in various storage vessels and is moved around the pipes and in and out of storage as demand dictates. Demand is mostly dictated by the weather and is therefore subject to much variation. Transco and its predecessors have been transporting gas for over 50 years and are very successful as judged by their excellent safety record and the continual delivery of gas. Nevertheless, the company wished to improve itself and make further use of the many measurements collected. SPC is ideal for improving communication and understanding through increased visibility of data. All companies have special issues to face when they implement SPC, and this paper describes the way these were dealt with in System Operations and the lessons learnt along the way. The first part describes how performance measures were chosen for investigation. It includes a novel use of correlation between output and day-to-day conditions, which was successfully turned into a measure to check the uncheckable. The second part is about the issues involved with early application of SPC when features of the system are still unexplained. SPC has helped enhance understanding of the complex transportation process, encouraged team work, improved performance and provided an objective means of decision making.     

我国地区间资本要素市场分割状况:测算与分析

在完全竞争市场假设下,不同地区资本回报率应趋向统一。基于这一前提,本文首次将微观数据汇总到地区层面,借鉴“价格法”的思想,基于“市场形成价格,价格引导资源配置”提出资本要素市场分割测算方法。本文使用1998—2013年的工业企业数据库,分别在省份、地市层面测算工业、重工业、轻工业、高端装备制造业、高技术产业、战略性新兴产业、装备制造业的全国资本要素市场及省份内资本要素市场的市场分割程度。研究发现,第一,整体来看,1998—2013 年各类资本要素市场分割程度大幅度下降,下降幅度在50%左右,其中高端装备制造业、高技术产业下降尤为明显。分阶段来看,资本要素市场在第一阶段(1998—2002年)及第二阶段(2002—2008年)均趋于整合。第二,基于地级市层面的测算发现,经济发展水平相对较高地区的市场分割下降幅度大于经济发展水平相对较低地区,且在样本期末前者的市场分割程度低于后者。第三,基于省份层面的测算发现,全国各行业市场分割平均下降幅度大致在49%~63%之间,东部沿海地区市场分割程度相对低于内陆地区。第四,增加市县级政府税收共享比例在调动地方积极性的同时会加剧市场分割,而中央政府在更大范围的基础设施建设将推动资本要素市场整合。     

产业基本性与重点产业选择

在国家提出发展战略性新兴产业的大背景下,本文将技术结构意义上的“基本”性和技术进步潜力结合起来,归纳出重点产业选择的内在逻辑,并从理论的角度论证了其对经济增长的意义。本文进一步给出了基于投入产出表数据来辨别重点产业的数值方法。基于矩阵三角化方法的数值分析发现,我国的重点产业包含通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,通用与专用设备制造业,交通运输设备制造业。本文也同时计算出了我国重点产业的竞争力水平,并开展了国际比较。测算结果表明：通用与专用设备制造业,交通运输设备制造业的竞争力相对较强,而通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业中的生产性投入品的竞争力则相对较弱。     

人民币汇率指数编制及其与宏观经济变量的联动分析

本文在总结国内外汇率指数编制经验教训的基础上,提出了人民币汇率指数编制的基本理论与方法,设计了一套能全方位多角度反映我国在不同市场特征下进出口竞争力状况的包含人民币发达市场汇率指数、人民币新兴市场汇率指数和人民币全市场汇率指数的指数体系编制方案。具体编制时,本文首次引入“第三方市场效应”,以全面反映我国与其他经济体之间的竞争关系,并首次使用“除数修正法”,对指数因成分货币或权重调整引起的非汇率价格因素变动进行修正,以保证指数的连续性。最后,用交叉谱分析实证发现,相对于国内外其他人民币汇率指数,本文编制的人民币汇率指数与主要宏观经济变量之间存在更强的一致性和不同情形的领先响应关系,联动更为紧密。     

中国汽车制造企业群 的国际竞争力评价与分析

 愈来愈多的汽车跨国公司进入中国投资生产，可以说中国是汽车制造企业竞争发展的世界舞台。中国汽车制造企业的国际竞争水平及发展态势愈来愈受到关注。本文借鉴国内外竞争力前沿研究，联系国内汽车制造企业竞争与发展的实际问题，建立了中国汽车制造企业群的7大要素和48项指标的竞争力评价体系；运用了IMD国际竞争力评价方法及统计学原理；分外商投资企业、股份有限公司、国有企业、私营企业等主要企业经济类型，展开企业的国际竞争力系统分析，核心思想是把外商投资企业的竞争力水平作为国际型企业竞争力水平的标杆，与其他主要企业类型进行竞争力的系统分析，找出各类企业自身的国际竞争优势和劣势，并分析未来的竞争与发展态势。     

中国A、Ｂ股市场分割性研究 ――基于协整理论的检验

 本文在从不同市场的长期均衡和短期信息流动的视角清晰界定市场分割含义的基础上，提出了基于协整理论的市场分割统计检验方法。并从市场和公司两个层面检验了我国证券市场的分割情况。研究得出，从市场层面看，在B股市场对境内居民开放前，AB股市场基本是分割的，而开放后两者是一体的；从公司层面看，尽管同一公司A股价格和B股价格始终存在差异，但从两者的长期均衡关系和短期信息流动来看，我国AB股市场并不存在市场分割情况。这表明，因担心不同市场之间的套利而通过政策强制合并A股和B股市场可能并无必要。     

数据包络方法评价企业绩效的有效性研究

旨在研究数据包络方法评价企业绩效的有效性。首先从理论上提出了四个假设,其次选取了2012年中国803家制造业上市公司作为样本数据,对四个假设从绝对有效性和相对有效性两个方面进行了实证检验。最后得出结论:数据包络方法测算的企业效率值与传统绩效评价指标显著正相关,而且在不同的效率水平上、不同地区、不同行业,该效率值作为评价企业绩效的指标既是绝对有效的,也是相对有效的。     

基于Copula方法的干散货运费子市场尾部相关性分析

通过分析Copula函数的尾部相关性来揭示干散货巴拿马运费市场和好望角运费市场的相关性。实证结果表明,基于时变相关的二元对称Joe-Clayton(SJC)Copula对干散货运费子市场尾部相关性的拟合效果最好,而且当市场下降时,两个子市场表现出强而剧烈的相关性;市场上升时,二者表现出弱而平稳的相关性,因此基于不同船型的航线组合投资在市场上升时的效果优于市场下降。     

Project Feedback Loops: Visualizing Collection Evaluation Decisions

ABSTRACT

In 2016, a collection assessment project evaluated print serials and book collections at Johns Hopkins University in preparation for an upcoming renovation of the Eisenhower Library. Project metrics provided librarians with both goals and measures of success that varied by humanities, social sciences, and science and engineering—such as estimated number of volumes, decision type, and the percentage of serials staying or moving out of the building. A feedback loop with data visualizations helped reduce anxiety and improve communication across library departments by illustrating volume estimates, linear feet, and shelf height by decision type. Key takeaways include lessons learned about necessary data proficiency for academic librarians and the need for better data from our library software and applications to facilitate future collection evaluation projects for weeding off-site serials.     

协同价值的实现与并购支付方式的选择

对收购活动的动机存在不同的看法,最终而言,每一项并购活动都是为了实现并购的协同价值。不同支付方式又与协同价值的分配和实现有着密切的联系。本文研究表明,在用现金进行支付的情况下,并购方股东既要承担协同价值未实现的全部损失,也能享有协同价值超额实现的全部收益。在发行固定数量股份的交易方式和发行固定价值股份的交易方式下,并购完成后市场对并购进行重新估价的结果,主要表现为买方公司股价的变动也会影响双方的利益。如果是股价上升,那么并购双方都将获益,而且往往对买方公司更为有利;如果股价下跌,那么买方公司也将承担更大的损失。这些结论为支付方式的选择和协同价值的实现提供了依据。     

基于适度财务指标和遗传算法的财务危机预测模型研究

以往进行财务危机预测主要使用统计方法建模,迄今尚未见到因考虑财务指标的适度性而建立遗传算法模型的中外文献。适度财务指标是指该指标在某个区间内公司才是健康的,过大或过小则公司发生财务危机的可能性都较大。故以中国上市公司数据为样本,建立了基于适度财务指标和遗传算法的创新型财务危机预测模型,结果显示该类模型具有较高的预测准确率。     

市场流动性的状态转换及其突变点检测研究

通过构建AR-MS-GARCH模型,分析了市场流动性的状态转换机制,并设计了一种新的突变点检测指标。实证结果表明,市场流动性存在明显的"低—高"波动状态交替转换特征,两种状态都有较强的波动持续性,但不同状态转换和持续期存在一定的非对称性;计算突变点检测指标发现,市场流动性在样本期内存在五个突变点,而它们所对应的时刻往往是市场流动性"强—弱"转换的临界点。这些结论有助于监管部门及时采取政策措施,减少市场流动性突然逆转的可能性,以维护金融系统稳定。     

社会统计学研究与实践迅速繁荣

社会统计学在中国是一门年轻的学科,是发展迅速的,也是有极大潜力的。本文将首先回顾中国社会统计学的发展,阐述中国统计部门与研究人员曾为之付出的努力。其次,分析当下社会统计学的繁荣景象,分析其繁荣的背景、繁荣的根源和繁荣的表现。最后,分析社会统计工作的“关注点”,希望对中国相关部门工作的开展有所帮助。     

AN INVENTORY PROBLEM APPLIED TO A RENTAL SITUATION

An inventory problem, applied to a rental situation business, has been considered. If no item is in stock when a demand occurs, the company borrows the units from other concerns in the same line of business. The profit function has been calculated and it has been shown how the inventory level increases with penalty cost. A review of the literature on inventory control reveals that not much work has been done in holding inventories of rental items. In a recent paper, Tainiter (1964) considered the situation in which a company rents out items such as cars, trucks, farm equipment, books, furniture, etc., and obtained the profit function by taking “rental-out” time as a negative exponential and demand as a general random variable. The model is equally applicable to companies which rent out “service personnel”, repair men, taxi cabs, etc. “We consider a company renting out items to customers. The company starts its business by purchasing a total number of M items in the inventory. The term inventory, defined by Arrow, Earlin and Scarf (1958) as the stock of goods which is kept for future sale or production, is applicable here. Whenever a demand occurs the item is rented out immediately, if it is available in the stock. But if the inventory is zero, i.e. all the items are rented out, the demand will be satisfied by borrowing items from other companies which are dealing in the same line of business. For example, a manufacturer of refrigerators maintains and repairs his product at the customer's house after sale. If a complaint arrives when no repairmen are available, the company will “borrow” repairmen from elsewhere and will attend to the complaint immediately. The borrowing cost may be negative or positive, representing a penalty or a profit. On the other hand if the company does not borrow and the customer has to wait (and such situations occur very often) the loss of the customer's goodwill may occur. It is also not possible to keep large numbers of items because of the storage costs and tied up capital. The problem is then to devise an optimal policy such that the profits of the company are maximized.