当代中东恐怖主义的特点

中东地区一直是国际社会关注的焦点,一个重要原因是该地区有持续不断的恐怖主义活动.中东恐怖主义的危害越来越严重、广泛,几乎没有地区和大国幸免.分析中东恐怖主义外在的一些特点有助于探究其内在和本质的因素.本文主要分析了中东地区恐怖主义的持续性、国际性、宗教性、巴以冲突为核心、三大目标、与战乱相伴生、现代化等几个特点.     

中东地区的核恐怖主义威胁与核安全

自小规模核武器技术出现起,外界始终存在恐怖分子可能会获得并使用核武器从而危及安全的分析和预警。中东是恐怖组织与恐怖分子最为集中和活跃的地区。就可能性而言,中东地区的恐怖组织在行为者意愿、交易关系、技术可行性和制造能力四个方面的表现确实可能形成核恐怖主义威胁,进而使区域核安全更加脆弱。中东地区拥有核武器的恐怖分子可攻击的潜在对象不仅限于地区国家,还包括欧美人口集中地;其追求的效果不仅是危害生命和环境,还包括散布核恐慌,极易影响全球安全形势。治理中东核恐怖主义不得不面临该地区特有的政治透明度、区域合作效能、极端主义和教派分歧等政治和结构困局。遏制中东核恐怖主义从根本上需要更开放的安全合作环境和更彻底的反极端主义举措。     

中东恐怖主义治理的现状与前景

中东恐怖主义问题的多层治理机制已初步形成,主要包括国家、地区和全球等层面上的治理及层面间互动所形成的治理网络。治理机制的构建速度、规模、层面和治理力度与中东地区恐怖活动出现的地缘范围、发生频率、攻击烈度等基本上呈现出一定的正相关关系。但中东地区恐怖主义治理建制的制约因素仍然突出,主要包括治理中的大国因素、现存政治经济秩序的不对称性以及缺少全球性协调、管理和制裁的机制。这些因素的存在导致参与治理的行为主体在中东恐怖主义问题的治理上难以形成一致的单项问题治理联盟,中东恐怖主义的治理仍任重而道远。     

中东剧变与中东军火贸易的发展

本文从剖析中东地区军火贸易的产生及发展入手,重点分析了2010年以来中东变局对地区军火贸易的发展格局、商品结构、供需市场等多方面产生的影响。由此得出结论:在中东变局的影响下,该地区极有可能掀起军备升级狂潮、再攀军火贸易高峰。从一定程度上看,军火贸易是军备竞赛的"晴雨表",中东地区军火贸易的不断扩大反映了地区军备竞赛的升级加剧,会导致地区安全形势恶化、经济发展延缓、恐怖主义活动猖獗,将对阿拉伯—伊斯兰地区稳定和可持续发展造成极大冲击,中东地区的军备控制依然任重而道远。     

欧盟推动下的中东区域经济合作

作为一个具有强大经济实力的国家联合体,经济手段是欧盟参与中东事务的主要方式,冷战结束以来,欧盟在中东地区的主要政策就是积极推动区域经济合作,对于欧盟来说,此举主要是为了促进中东地区阿拉伯国家的政治经济体制改革和提高民众的社会福利和生活水平,从而达到保持中东地区社会稳定,减少经济难民,消除恐怖主义根源,维护欧盟地缘战略安全之目的.     

欧盟推动下的中东区域经济合作

作为一个具有强大经济实力的国家联合体，经济手段是欧盟参与中东事务的主要方式。冷战结束以来，欧盟在中东地区的主要政策就是积极推动区域经济合作。对于欧盟来说，此举主要是为了促进中东地区阿拉伯国家的政治经济体制改革和提高民众的社会福利和生活水平，从而达到保持中东地区社会稳定，减少经济难民，消除恐怖主义根源，维护欧盟地缘战略安全之目的。     

中东恐怖主义和国际反恐合作现状

中东是当今世界受恐怖主义威胁最严重的地区之一.该地区传统安全问题与非传统安全相结合,恐怖主义问题与国家主权、民族冲突和宗教矛盾等纠缠在一起,虽然各国都在反恐,但成果非常有限.只有促进经济合作,增加中东国家在经济上的相互依赖,将人们的关注点从宗教、民族和政治事务转移到经济议题上来,才有可能建立一个较完备的地区反恐合作机制.     

中东恐怖主义、全球治理与中国的反恐政策

中东反恐斗争是国际反恐中最关键、最具影响的组成部分,也是国际社会面临的全球治理问题之一。它与当代的国际体系转型和政治经济秩序的重建分不开,又同中东伊斯兰国家在经济全球化深入推进的形势下,如何处理现代化进程中的改革与发展、实现制度变迁和社会转型直接相关。从中东恐怖主义产生的根源、发展和蔓延的轨迹看,中东恐怖主义既蕴含着错综复杂的历史、社会、宗教、民族等内部因素,也掺杂着外来侵略、占领、干涉以及地区国家之间领土、资源和利益等方面的矛盾和冲突等外部环境因素。中国的反恐政策既出于保护海外利益的需要,也折射了中国独特的全球治理理念和治理模式。     

中东恐怖主义和国际反恐合作现状

中东是当今世界受恐怖主义威胁最严重的地区之一。该地区传统安全问题与非传统安全相结合，恐怖主义问题与国家主权、民族冲突和宗教矛盾等纠缠在一起，虽然各国都在反恐，但成果非常有限。只有促进经济合作，增加中东国家在经济上的相互依赖，将人们的关注点从宗教、民族和政治事务转移到经济议题上来，才有可能建立一个较完备的地区反恐合作机制。     

中东恐怖主义产生的原因

中东地区的恐怖主义产生和发展与其宗教、民族、历史、文化有密切关联。宗教极端主义分子常为他们的恐怖活动披上神圣的宗教外衣以实现其政治目的。中东地区的各种社会问题长期得不到公正解决加剧了不同宗教、文明间的碰撞，刺激了恐怖活动的发生。     

News‐Media and Terrorism: Changing Relationship,Changing Definitions

This article discusses two aspects that are important for understanding the relationship between Western news media and terrorism: the changing representation of terrorists and terrorist attacks in the media and, with it, the changing definition of terrorism. By calling attention to evolving news media practices in times of terrorism, I argue that advanced communication technologies and the emergence of global media ecology since the 1990s has made terrorism more visible in both national and international media landscapes. One result is that the more the news media expose terrorism to global audiences via the “front door,” the more controversial the use of the terms “terrorism” and “terrorist” become in social, political, and scholarly discourses. The paper addresses the evolving journalistic practices and their consequences as documented in previous studies on media reporting of terrorism in several national contexts, mostly the UK, the United States, and Israel.     

Terrorism and public relations

This paper asks what we can learn from the parallels between terrorism and PR, either for the understanding of terrorism or—of more direct concern here—for the understanding of PR and its place in contemporary society. The already poor public image of PR may suffer from insufficient clarity about these parallels. It is suggested that while analogising between the two is of value, the differences between terrorism and PR also need to be stressed. Public communications need to be differentiated in two ways, firstly in terms of the distinction between spectacular and participatory types of public sphere, and secondly in terms of the distinction between values-based and power-based modes of address. Combining these concepts generates a simple 2×2 matrix for c1assifying public communications. This can help both to identify terrorism and PR as different forms of public communication, and also to identify the practical PR challenges facing governments and civic society in the struggle against terrorism.     

The Geometry of Terrorism

Terrorism in its purest form is self‐help by organized civilians who covertly inflict mass violence on other civilians. Pure sociology explains terrorism with its social geometry—its multidimensional location and direction in social space. Here I build on the work of Senechal de la Roche (1996) and propose the following geometrical model: Pure terrorism arises intercollectively and upwardly across long distances in multidimensional space. Yet because social distance historically corresponded to physical distance, terrorism often lacked the physical geometry necessary for its occurrence: physical closeness to civilians socially distant enough to attract terrorism. New technology has made physical distance increasingly irrelevant, however, and terrorism has proliferated. But technology also shrinks the social universe and sows the seeds of terrorism's destruction .     

Terrorism and lethal moralism in the United States and United Kingdom, 1970–2017

The current paper examines terrorism as a special form of moralistic violence, with several key features that distinguish such behaviour from other types of violence. The theory of lethal moralism highlights the importance of social polarization, characterized by vast differences in social space and inequality between adversaries as crucial to explaining deadly terrorist attacks. Where the differences are more permanent or chronic – and the groups in question define and justify their existence specifically in contradistinction to ‘other’ groups – then the polarization intensifies and attacks tend to be more lethal. In contrast, groups that appeal to broader audiences or the general public as potential allies more often use non‐lethal terrorism to their strategic advantage. The study examines the United States and the United Kingdom to classify each of more than 8,000 attacks between 1970 and 2017 in terms of their ideological orientations. The evidence highlights the arc of terrorism in relation to different types of groups, as well as confirms the more lethal nature of terrorism linked especially to radical Islam, right‐wing religious extremists, hate groups, ethno‐nationalist sectarian violence, and anti‐government anarchists. Yet apart from the extensive use of terrorism associated with ‘The Troubles’ in Northern Ireland, the majority of terrorist attacks in the US and the UK have not produced deaths. Most terrorism instead has been perpetrated by groups aiming to rally support for a general cause and has been far less deadly on balance. The implications of these findings are discussed with a view toward developing more powerful explanatory models that focus on the socio‐cultural contexts and justification frameworks that inspire extremism and the use of lethal moralism to settle disputes.     

DETERRENCE,PREEMPTION, AND PANIC: A COMMON‐ENEMY PROBLEM OF TERRORISM

A game‐theoretic analysis of terrorism examines interactions between a terrorist organization and multiple target countries. It considers both preemption and deterrence as counter‐terrorist policies. Damage from terror includes material costs and resultant fear. Fear effects lead to different equilibria and implications for counter‐terrorism policies. The model identifies conditions under which greater preemption may be the rational response to an increase in terrorism, that is, it analyzes the merit of the dictum “offense is the best defense.” It also examines the characteristics of cooperative behavior among target countries in dealing with the threat of terrorism. (JEL C72, D74, F52, F53, H41)     

Intimate partner violence among married male U.S. Army soldiers: ethnicity as a factor in self-reported perpetration and victimization

Correlates of self-reported intimate partner violence (IPV) were examined among 488 married male U.S. Army soldiers. Study results were examined within the framework of Johnson's (1995) typology, which proposes that there are two main types of IPV, common couple violence and intimate terrorism. We predicted that poor marital adjustment would be associated with minor violence, hypothesized to be indicative of common couple violence. We also predicted that psychological and behavioral characteristics associated with perpetrators of IPV would be more strongly correlated with severe inflicted aggression--a pattern hypothesized to be indicative of intimate terrorism. The results, based on a multivariate analysis of covariance, generally supported our hypotheses. Furthermore, the higher levels of IPV reported by Black respondents in this study were associated with the pattern hypothesized to be characteristic of common couple violence.     

Consequences of Male Partner Violence for Low‐Income Minority Women

The current study used a random sample of 563 low‐income women to test Johnson's (1995) theory that there are two major forms of male‐partner violence, situational couple violence and intimate terrorism, which are distinguished in terms of their embeddedness in a general pattern of control. The study examined the associations between type of violence experienced and respondents’ physical health, psychological distress, and economic well‐being. Analyses revealed three distinct patterns of partner violence: intimate terrorism, control/no threat, and situational couple violence. Compared to victims of control/no threat and situational couple violence, victims of intimate terrorism reported more injuries from physical violence and more work/activity time lost because of injuries. Compared to women who experienced no violence in the previous year, victims of intimate terrorism reported a greater likelihood of visiting a doctor, poorer health, more psychological distress, and a greater likelihood of receiving government assistance.     

Beyond the stereotypical implications of terrorism: a sociological investigation of Arab immigrants

Post 11 September 2001, terrorism has emerged as the defining stereotype of Arab immigrants. As a result, the study of Arab immigrants has become susceptible to stereotypes because in an era of unprecedented diversity sociological investigation has neglected spirituality. Among the various Arab populations spirituality is fundamental. Subsequently any investigation of Arab immigrants is impossible without acknowledgement of a spiritual dimension in the form of Islam. Moving beyond the stereotypical implications of terrorism will require Western sovereignties to be more informed about the Arab culture. Otherwise, their lack of effort will destine the uninformed to the stereotypical implications of terrorism that will not be limited to Arab immigrants but extend to other populations as well.     

巴基斯坦恐怖组织与中东的联系及其对“动荡弧”地带的影响

中东与巴基斯坦反恐形势的互动是当前巴安全局势恶化重要的外部因素之一。基于巴所处的联系南亚与西亚、中亚的特殊地缘位置及其伊斯兰文化属性,本文重点考察了阿富汗、伊朗、沙特三个有重要相关性的国家对巴反恐局势的影响;基于全球恐怖主义网络的运作机制,本文从资金流、信息流、人员流三条主要联系渠道,分析了巴基斯坦恐怖势力与中东的联系。在此基础上,本文分析了巴局势恶化对“动荡弧”地带安全局势的影响,并就巴局势恶化对中国可能产生的影响以及中国应采取的对策进行了简要分析。     

The causes of terrorism

Abstract

Terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 and after intensified concerns about a global Jihad and other forms of terrorism, and renewed calls to better understand its causes or roots. There have been divergent views on this question, and terrorism has been argued to be caused by increased poverty, rapid urbanization, declining traditional authority, globalization, and so forth. These differences, reflecting philosophical, religious, political and other differences, are not merely academic; they can affect our understanding of both the threat and of responses to terrorism. This article provides an analytic framework for understanding the limits to understanding the causes of terrorism, identifying what can be known about causation and assessing counterterrorism implications.