基于“不公厌恶”与“风险厌恶”的经理人持股激励契约

传统代理人激励模型建立在参与人自利性假设基础之上,本文引入"不公厌恶"和"风险厌恶"因素,由浅入深地研究激励因素、风险厌恶和不公厌恶三者对经理人最优持股契约的影响。发现经理人的风险厌恶倾向导致其减低持股比例,激励因素倾向于使经理人增加持股比例,而不公厌恶使得经理人持股比例在1/2左右。当经理人努力是不可缔约的且经理人是不公厌恶和风险厌恶时,为激励经理人进行智力投资,必须赋予其一定比例的股权,使委托人与代理人利益趋于一致,以降低由经理人不公厌恶产生的效用损失,进而降低委托代理成本。     

销售成本信息不对称下供应商风险规避的回购契约

在价格随机条件下,销售成本信息不对称且供应商规避风险时,本文探讨回购契约协调供应链的最优决策。在前提假设的基础上构建新的回购契约模型,求解并用算例进行仿真验证,考虑信息不对称与风险规避共同发生耦合作用后对供应链相关决策变量的影响。研究结果表明：在价格随机条件下,不管信息是否对称,只要供应商有风险规避意识,供应链相关决策变量均发生分岔突变;不管市场价格是否随机,也不管供应商是否风险规避,只要零售商隐瞒私人销售成本信息,就会给自己带来额外的收益,但会给供应商与整个供应链带来损害;供应链上的信息越不对称,在分岔突变区域,相关决策变量的振荡幅度越大。分岔突变现象是市场价格随机和供应商风险规避耦合作用后特有的现象;零售商能够利用信息不对称给自己带来额外的好处,但会损害供应商和供应链的利益;供应商防范零售商这种损人利己行为的最好对策,就是通过设计一种合作机制,以最低成本的方式来促使零售商将销售成本信息公开化;另外,供应商以平稳的心态(风险中性)应对外部风险,更有利于提高其自身决策的水平。     

考虑风险规避的资金约束供应链最优信用契约设计

本文针对零售商的资金约束问题,研究了风险规避的供应商如何通过设计信用契约影响零售商的融资结构。构建了包含供应商、零售商以及银行在内的供应链融资模型,给出了供应商的最优信用契约决策、零售商的最优库存决策以及银行的最优利率决策。进一步分析了供应商的风险规避程度对最优信用契约决策的影响。研究表明：当供应商的风险规避程度低于某个临界值时,供应商偏好提供全额信用,从而零售商的融资结构为单一的交易信用融资;而当供应商的风险规避程度高于该临界值时,供应商偏好提供部分信用,从而零售商的融资结构为组合融资。最后,通过数值算例验证了本文的结论。本研究一定程度上丰富了现有供应链金融的理论研究,为供应链核心企业与银行的决策提供了依据与参考。     

Peer Effects in Risk Aversion

We estimate peer effects in risk attitudes in a sample of high school students. Relative risk aversion is elicited from surveys administered at school. Identification of peer effects is based on parents not being able to choose the class within the school of their choice, and on the use of instrumental variables conditional on school‐grade fixed effects. We find a significant and quantitatively large impact of peers’ risk attitudes on a male individual's coefficient of risk aversion. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the group's coefficient of risk aversion increases an individual's risk aversion by 43%. Our findings shed light on the origin and stability of risk attitudes and, more generally, on the determinants of economic preferences.     

The Law of Demand and Risk Aversion

This note proposes a necessary and sufficient condition on a utility function to guarantee that it generates a demand function satisfying the law of demand. This condition can be interpreted in terms of an agent's attitude towards lotteries in commodity space. As an application, we show that when an agent has an expected utility function, her demand for securities satisfies the law of demand if her coefficient of relative risk aversion does not vary by more than 4.     

产需不确定下基于零售商风险规避的三级供应链组合契约模型

针对产需不确定下单一供应商、制造商和风险规避的零售商组成的三级供应链系统,建立了分散和集中情况下的最优决策模型。通过设计风险共担和GL组合契约实现了三级供应链的协调。讨论了风险规避零售商的最优订购决策,分析了风险规避对供应链期望效益的影响。比较了风险规避和风险中性两种情况下零售商的最优决策。探讨了组合契约的协调问题及契约参数之间的关系。研究表明供应链的期望利润随着产需不确定的增加而减少,风险规避下零售商的期望利润低于风险中性时的期望利润,零售商的期望利润随着风险规避程度的加大而减少,零售商最优订购量随风险规避程度的增加而变化。最后数值算例验证了模型和契约协调的有效性。     

Experimental Evidence Against the Paradigm of Mortality Risk Aversion

This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man‐made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1–100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk‐averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.     

不公平厌恶下VMI供应链的批发价格契约与协调

供应链契约是影响VMI供应链整体绩效的重要因素,这是近年来关注的重要研究课题。本文着重研究了由供应商与零售商组成的二级VMI供应链协调问题,在供应商存在不公平厌恶的假设下,依据Cui等提出的不公平厌恶模型刻画了供应商的不利与有利不公平厌恶,通过分析得到了分散VMI供应链情形下供应商的最优策略,同时分析了二级VMI供应链在批发价格契约下的协调情况。通过分析得到的主要结论是:在供应商存在不利不公平厌恶的情形下,供应商存在唯一的最优产品生产量,其不高于传统供应商的最优产品生产量且为不利不公平厌恶系数或零售商势力外生参数的严格减函数或减函数,批发价格契约无法使二级VMI供应链达到协调;在供应商存在有利不公平厌恶的情形下,供应商存在唯一的最优产品生产量,其不低于传统供应商的最优产品生产量且为有利不公平厌恶系数或零售商势力外生参数的严格增函数或增函数,批发价格契约在一定条件下可使二级VMI供应链达到协调。最后,通过数值实验分析验证了本文得出的结论。     

基于风险规避的双渠道制造商在线推介策略研究

研究了风险规避对双渠道制造商在线推介策略的影响。首先,以零售商、制造商风险中性为基准模型考察制造商推介策略,发现当推介市场规模较小时,制造商仅推介官方商城;当推介市场规模较大时,制造商选择都推介策略。然后,分别考察零售商或制造商风险规避特性对推介策略的影响,发现当推介市场规模居中时,若市场竞争强度较小,则随着风险规避程度的增大,制造商推介策略由仅推介官方商城转变为都推介;若市场竞争强度较大,则零售商风险规避情况下推介策略由都推介转变为仅推介官方商城,但制造商风险规避情况下推介策略不变。最后,通过算例形式分析了零售商和制造商都风险规避时制造商的推介策略。     

Risk Aversion,Collective Bargaining,and Wages in Germany

We develop an open‐shop model of trade union membership in which workers differ in their risk attitudes, and derive conditions under which the bargained wage will fall and union membership will increase with a general rise in risk aversion. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel we define broad bargaining units and show that wages decline as average risk aversion of union members in these units rises, controlling for individual effects of risk aversion. Given a negative relationship between wages and employment, this suggests that secular changes in risk attitudes, because of an aging workforce or greater female labour force participation, can help to explain variations in the employment performance of unionized economies.     

Predicting Cancer‐Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions

Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert‐assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects′ tendencies to engage in cancer‐risk‐reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects’ control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies.     

风险厌恶在股指期货避险中的应用研究

沪深300股指期货的推出,不仅提供了一种新的投资产品,更为投资者提供了一种新的避险工具.如何选择最佳的避险比率成为投资者不得不考虑的首要问题.此外,投资者对风险的态度也是避险决策中需要考虑的重要因素.文章采用GARCH-M模型估计市场参与者的风险厌恶系数(RRA),在此基础上运用OLS和VAR-MVGARCH模型计算沪深300股指期货的效用最大化避险比率,并与常规风险最小化准则下的避险比率进行对比分析.结果表明,考虑RRA的效用最大化避险比率高于风险最小化的避险比率.并且,除了时变样本外预测,无论是静态避险比率,还是时变避险比率,引入RRA的避险策略表现均优于风险最小化标准下的避险策略.     

竞争和风险规避对双渠道供应链决策的影响

针对具有风险规避特征的制造商和零售商组成的双渠道供应链,分析非竞争环境下双渠道供应链中产品在不同渠道的最优定价;研究存在替代产品竞争的市场环境下,原双渠道供应链中风险规避型参与者的定价决策以及替代产品决策者的最优定价;探讨双渠道中参与者的风险规避度对其定价决策的影响,分析表明随着参与者风险规避度的增大,供应链中各渠道的最优定价都减小,制造商和零售商的期望收益也随之减小;借助数值分析,研究竞争对风险规避型参与者决策的影响,并对模型中各关键参数进行敏感度分析。研究结果表明,一定程度的市场竞争会减弱参与者风险规避特征对其决策产生的影响,提高参与者的定价,增加参与者的收益。在参数的敏感度分析中,用来反映替代产品对双渠道上产品影响的交叉敏感度的增大会提高双渠道上产品的定价,也增加风险规避型参与者的收益。     

风险规避与一级密封拍卖的有限腐败——模型及实验

在风险中性假设的有限腐败一级密封拍卖模型基础上,构建容纳风险规避的有限腐败一级密封拍卖的一般模型,依据模型进行基于计算机局域网的多组并行的实验室实验;实验包含一个作为基准的无腐败一级密封拍卖和三种有限腐败程度的一级密封拍卖,并设计两种收益计算方式和保留价设置,实验研究对比两种模型的预测力,考察存在有限腐败的一级密封拍卖的效率和竞标人行为。研究结果表明,有限腐败机制不影响一级密封拍卖的效率,成交价格方面有腐败与无腐败的拍卖之间没有显著差异;腐败者的期望收益有所上升,高报价更为激进而低报价更为保守;腐败者是异质的,其报价行为具有禀赋依赖性;非腐败者的行为和卖者收益没有显著变化。实验结果表明包含腐败者风险规避特征的模型预测力更好。     

嵌入前景理论的动态风险厌恶套期保值比率模型研究

本文从前景理论视角出发,并考虑风险厌恶的动态性,推导出了嵌入前景理论的动态风险厌恶套期保值比率计算公式.然后以2004年8月20日至2010年6月4日的铜现货与期货交易均价为样本进行实证分析.实证结果表明:空头套保者与多头套保者的风险厌恶水平是不同的,而且在不同市场环境下的风险厌恶水平也不同;不同市场环境和动态风险厌恶对套期保值比率来说是很重要的影响因素,在计算套期保值比率时我们有必要把它们考虑进来.     

Efficiency Wage,Fixed Employment Costs,and Dual Labour Markets

The standard efficiency wage‐based explanation of labour market dualism hinges on the existence of differences in monitoring across sectors. The paper proposes fixed employment costs as an alternative source of wage differentials for homogeneous workers. It shows that firms with larger fixed costs pay higher wages in order to elicit more effort from their workers, and tend to have higher capital/labour ratio and labour productivity. The model generates both involuntary unemployment and involuntary confinement in the secondary sector: high effort–high wage jobs are preferred to low effort–low wage jobs and either are preferred to unemployment. The proposed framework can also account for the various types of treatment of marginal jobs in primary sector firms envisaged by Doeringer and Piore (Internal Labour Markets and Manpower Analysis, 1971). In particular, an increase in fixed costs beyond a certain level may induce primary sector firms to restructure, segment production, and enter the secondary sector, thus converting their jobs into secondary jobs. From a welfare point of view, we cannot state in general the desirability of subsidizing fixed employment costs; however, we show that an employment subsidy financed by a wage tax is able to increase employment with no loss in terms of production.     

经理人激励的细分: 隐藏行动、努力成本和风险厌恶

本文研究经理人隐藏行动、努力成本和风险厌恶态度对经理人激励的影响.本文的研究基于标准委托人-代理人模型,但放松其关于经理人行动不能影响企业风险的假定,而采用更接近现实的假定--企业风险至少部分内生于经理人的行动.通过研究,本文将经理人激励明确细分类为努力增进激励(βeffort激励)和追求风险激励(βrisk激励)两类.为实现βeffort激励,经理人报酬只需是企业业绩的线性函数即可;但为实现βrisk激励,经理人报酬应是企业业绩的凸函数.     

不确定环境下考虑风险厌恶的生产-分销网络优化模型及试验设计

考虑上游生产和下游需求不确定性，研究了由工厂、分销中心及终端市场构成的生产-分销网络优化设计问题。针对上游生产不确定性，考虑产生故障和无故障两种状态；针对下游市场需求不确定性，考虑其具有低、中和高三种状态。由于生产发生故障可能导致不合格品的产生，进一步考虑了在上游生产环节是否实施产品监测问题。综合网络运作成本和由不确定性导致的绩效风险，建立了由风险厌恶水平和悲观系数刻画的基于均值-条件风险值（CVaR）准则的生产-分销网络两阶段随机规划模型。特别地，针对由网络潜在节点数众多所导致的不确定情景规模过大的问题，采用情景缩减技术进行了情景筛选，降低了所建模型的求解难度。最后，进行了数值计算，分析了相关参数对网络运作绩效的影响，并给出了期望成本和条件风险值两个目标权衡的帕累托有效前沿。进一步，通过回归试验设计检验了决策者风险厌恶水平和悲观系数对所设计的生产-分销网络绩效的影响程度。结果表明，相对于决策者的风险厌恶程度，悲观系数对网络运作绩效的影响更大。