Social Amplification of Risk in the Internet Environment

This article analyzes the dynamic process of risk amplification in the Internet environment with special emphasis on public concern for environmental risks from a high‐speed railway tunnel construction project in South Korea. Environmental organizations and activists serving as social stations collected information about the project and its ecological impact, and communicated this with the general public, social groups, and institutions. The Internet provides social stations and the public with an efficient means for interactive communication and an open space for active information sharing and public participation. For example, while the website of an organization such as an environmental activist group can initially trigger local interest, the Internet allows this information to be disseminated to a much wider audience in a manner unavailable to the traditional media. Interaction among social stations demonstrates an amplifying process of public attention to the risk. Analyses of the volume of readers’ comments to online newspaper articles and public opinions posted on message board of public and nonprofit organizations show the ripple effects of the amplification process as measured along temporal, geographical, and sectoral dimensions. Public attention is also influenced by the symbolic connotations of risk information. Interpretations of risk in religious, political, or legal terms intensify public concern for the environmental risk.     

Desired Risk: Broadening the Social Amplification of Risk Framework1

Recently Kasperson et al.⁽⁶⁾ have proposed a conceptual framework, “The Social Amplification of Risk,” as a beginning step in developing a comprehensive theory of public experience of risk. A central goal of their effort is to systematically link technical assessments of risk with the growing findings from social scientific research. A key and growing domain of public risk experience is “desired” risk, but this is virtually neglected in the framework. This paper evaluates the scope of the “Social Amplification of Risk Framework,” asking whether it is applicable to desired risks, such as risk recreation (hang gliding, mountain climbing, and so forth). The analysis is supportive of the framework's applicability to the domain of desired risk.     

Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

The Media and Genetically Modified Foods: Evidence in Support of Social Amplification of Risk

Empirical examinations of the "social amplification of risk" framework are rare, partly because of the difficulties in predicting when conditions likely to result in amplification effects will occur. This means that it is difficult to examine changes in risk perception that are contemporaneous with increases and/or decreases in social or media discussion of the risks associated with a particular risk event. However, the collection of attitude data before, during, and after the increased reporting of the risks of genetically modified food in the United Kingdom (spring 1999) has demonstrated that people's risk perceptions do increase and decrease in line with what might be expected upon examination of the amplification and attenuation mechanisms integral to the framework. Perceptions of benefit, however, appeared to be permanently depressed by negative reporting about genetically modified food. Trust in regulatory institutions with responsibility for protecting the public was not affected. It was concluded that the social amplification of risk framework is a useful framework for beginning to explain the potential impact on risk perceptions of a risk event, particularly if that risk event is presented to the public as a new hazard occurring in a crisis context.     

The Impact of Social Amplification and Attenuation of Risk and the Public Reaction to Mad Cow Disease in Canada

Following the detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada, and subsequently in the United States, confidence in the safety of beef products remained high. Consumers actually increased their consumption of beef slightly after the news of an increased risk from mad cow disease, which has been interpreted as public support for beef farmers and confidence in government regulators. The Canadian public showed a markedly different reaction to the news of domestic BSE than the furious and panicked responses observed in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. Using the social amplification of risk framework, we show that, while other countries displayed social amplification of risk, Canada experienced a social attenuation of risk. The attenuated reaction in Canada toward mad cow disease and increased human health risks from variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) was due to the social context at the time when BSE was discovered domestically. Mortality, morbidity, and psychosocial impacts resulting from other major events such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), West Nile virus (WNV), and the U.S.-Iraq war made the theoretical risks of BSE and vCJD a lower priority, reducing its concern as a risk issue.     

An Empirical Agent‐Based Model to Simulate the Adoption of Water Reuse Using the Social Amplification of Risk Framework

Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large‐scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision‐making process. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, our agent‐based model simulates consumer perceptions, discussion patterns, and their adoption or rejection of water reuse. The model is based on the “risk publics” model, an empirical approach that uses the concept of belief clusters to explain the adoption of new technology. Each household is represented as an agent, and parameters that define their behavior and attributes are defined from survey data. Community‐level parameters—including social groups, relationships, and communication variables, also from survey data—are encoded to simulate the social processes that influence community opinion. The model demonstrates its capabilities to simulate opinion dynamics and consumer adoption of water reuse. In addition, based on empirical data, the model is applied to investigate water reuse behavior in different regions of the United States. Importantly, our results reveal that public opinion dynamics emerge differently based on membership in opinion clusters, frequency of discussion, and the structure of social networks.     

Culture, Cosmopolitanism, and Risk Management

Most cultural approaches to risk management deal with the connections between the forms of social relations within groups and the risk concerns of those groups. According to these theories, a certain limited set of different relational forms (usually three, four, or five) lead to specific, different and conflicting, risk concerns. In contrast to these theories, cosmopolitanism is an approach to culture that focuses, not on forms of sociality, but on changes among forms—expansions and contractions in the inclusivity of forms and movement by persons from one form of sociality to another. Relative to other cultural theories, cosmopolitanism thus is much more concerned with the solution of risk management problems than with their origins. Cosmopolitanism can be thought of as a cultural continuum, with cosmopolitanism at one end and pluralism at the other. Cosmopolitan persons are more open to cultural change—and thus the solution of risk management problems. In this article, we outline our new theory of cosmopolitanism, describe a method for measuring it and present an experimental study that tests some implications of the theory. Results from the study support the theory by showing that, compared to pluralistic respondents, cosmopolitan respondents are more inclusive in their risk management judgments—that is, they express equal concern for a local and a national issue, whereas the pluralistic respondents express greater concern in the local case. We discuss the risk management implications of a cosmopolitan approach to culture.     

Risk,Media, and Stigma at Rocky Flats

Public responses to nuclear technologies are often strongly negative. Events, such as accidents or evidence of unsafe conditions at nuclear facilities, receive extensive and dramatic coverage by the news media. These news stories affect public perceptions of nuclear risks and the geographic areas near nuclear facilities. One result of these perceptions, avoidance behavior, is a form of technological stigma that leads to losses in property values near nuclear facilities. The social amplification of risk is a conceptual framework that attempts to explain how stigma is created through media transmission of information about hazardous places and public perceptions and decisions. This paper examines stigma associated with the U.S. Department of Energy's Rocky Flats facility, a major production plant in the nation's nuclear weapons complex, located near Denver, Colorado. This study, based upon newspaper analyses and a survey of Denver area residents, finds that the social amplification theory provides a reasonable framework for understanding the events and public responses that took place in regard to Rocky Flats during a 6-year period, beginning with an FBI raid of the facility in 1989.     

Institutionalized Ignorance as a Precondition for Rational Risk Expertise

The present case study seeks to explain the conditions for experts’ rational risk perception by analyzing the institutional contexts that constitute a field of food safety expertise in Denmark. The study highlights the role of risk reporting and how contextual factors affect risk reporting from the lowest organizational level, where concrete risks occur, to the highest organizational level, where the body of professional risk expertise is situated. The article emphasizes the role of knowledge, responsibility, loyalty, and trust as risk‐attenuation factors and concludes by suggesting that the preconditions for the expert's rationality may rather be a lack of risk‐specific knowledge due to poor risk reporting than a superior level of risk knowledge.     

Risk Analysis, Philosophy, and the Social and Behavioral Sciences: Reflections on the Scope of Risk Analysis Research

This paper reviews the contributions of philosophy and the social and behavioral sciences to risk analysis. It concludes that philosophical, social, and behavioral research can contribute to the resolution of complex risk issues in at least four areas: (i) comparative risk analysis; (ii) the use of risk-related scientific information in the decision-making process; (iii) risk perception; and (iv) institutional and organizational features of the risk-management system.     

Contemporary Terrorism: Risk Perception in the London Options Market

Previous studies have a demonstrated a linkage between terrorist attacks and the operation of financial markets. This article focuses on terrorist events carried out over the last five years and examines how they have been perceived among participants on the London financial market. Data from the London options market suggest a high degree of sensitivity to these events. We argue that this sensitivity reveals a vulnerability in the financial markets should the recent trends in terrorist activity continue.     

Major Chemical Accidents in Industrializing Countries: The Socio-Political Amplification of Risk

Accidents in the chemical industry, such as those that took place in Seveso (1976) and Bhopal (1984), may kill or injure thousands of people, cause serious health hazards and irreversible environmental damage. The aim of this paper is to examine the ever-increasing risk of similar accidents becoming a frequent ocurrence in the so-called industrializing countries. Using figures from some of the worst chemical accidents in the last decades, data on the Bhopal disaster, and Brazil's social and institutional characteristics, we put forward the hypothesis that present social, political and economic structures in industrializing countries make these countries much more vulnerable to such accidents and create the type of setting where–if and when these accidents occur–they will have even more catastrophic consequences. The authors argue that only the transformation of local structures, and stronger technical cooperation between international organizations, industrialized and industrializing countries could reduce this vulnerability.     

Historical Application of a Social Amplification of Risk Model: Economic Impacts of Risk Events at Nuclear Weapons Facilities

Public perception of risk is being cited as a documented reason to rethink a very contentious congressionally mandated process for siting interim storage and permanent disposal facilities for high-level radioactive waste. Rigorous survey research has shown that the public holds intense, negative images of "nuclear" and "radioactive" technologies, activities, and facilities. Potential host states and opponents claim that these negative images, coupled with an amplification of negative risk events, will potentially stigmatize the area surrounding such facilities and result in significant economic losses. At issue is whether a supporting social amplification of risk model is applicable to communities hosting facilities that are part of the U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Weapons Complex. An initial assessment of high-profile discrete and cumulative key negative risk events at such nuclear facilities does not validate that there has been stigmatization or substantial social and economic consequences in the host areas. Before any changes to major national policy are implemented, additional research is required to determine if the nearby public's "pragmatic logic," based on practical knowledge and experience, attenuates the link between public opinion and demographic and economic behaviors.     

企业社会责任、媒体报道与股价崩盘风险

理论上企业披露社会责任信息既可能抑制股价崩盘风险,亦可能加剧股价崩盘风险;新闻媒体作为社会责任披露的重要载体在其中既可能弱化也可能强化这种影响,对这些问题的探讨是近年来公司金融领域研究的热点,但学者对当前的研究结果尚存在较多争论。鉴于此,本文首先在理论上导出社会责任披露对股价崩盘风险的双向作用机制,然后引入新闻媒体研究其可能的传导途径。基于我国A股市场所有上市公司2010-2018年面板数据的研究结果显示：上市公司通过披露企业社会责任指数能够显著降低股价崩盘风险;企业履行社会责任会显著增加媒体报道的数量,而媒体报道数量增加能够显著抑制股价崩盘风险,即媒体报道在企业社会责任影响股价崩盘风险的过程中起到中介作用;进一步的拓展研究发现：企业社会责任指数中的股东责任对股价崩盘风险影响最大,而供应商、客户和消费者权益、社会责任的影响不显著;与中性媒体报道相比,正面媒体报道和负面媒体报道的中介作用效果更强。     

The Mediated Amplification of a Crisis: Communicating the A/H1N1 Pandemic in Press Releases and Press Coverage in Europe

In the aftermath of the A/H1N1 pandemic, health authorities were criticized for failures in crisis communication efforts, and the media were accused of amplifying the pandemic. Considering these criticisms, A/H1N1 provides a suitable case for examining risk amplification processes that may occur in the transfer of information from press releases to print news media during a health crisis. We integrated the social amplification of risk framework with theories of news decisions (news values, framing) in an attempt to contribute to existing research both theoretically and empirically. We conducted a quantitative content analysis of press releases disseminated by health and governmental authorities, as well as the quality and tabloid press in 10 European countries between March 2009 and March 2011. Altogether 243 press releases, 1,243 quality press articles, and 834 tabloid press articles were coded. Consistent with research on news values and framing the results suggest that quality and tabloid papers alike amplified A/H1N1 risks by emphasizing conflict and damage, presenting information in a more dramatized way, and using risk‐amplifying frames to a greater extent and risk‐attenuating frames to a lesser extent than press releases. To some extent, the quality and tabloid press differed in how risk information was presented. While tabloid press articles seemed to follow the leading quality press with regards to content and framing of health crisis coverage, they exhibited a stronger emphasis on drama and emotion in the way they presented information.     

The Social Benefits of Expedited Risk Assessments

The present regulation of carcinogens is quite slow; hundreds of substances that have tested positive for carcinogenicity in animal bioassays have not been addressed by the U.S. regulatory system. This carries with it unappreciated social, economic, and public health costs. However, there are readily available expedited approximation procedures for assessing the potency of carcinogens whose use has substantial benefits that outweigh any costs from less science-intensive and less extensively documented assessments. These benefits can be seen by using a model to suggest the magnitude of social costs in regulating carcinogens by current conventional methods compared with expedited procedures for assessing the potency of known carcinogens. Two scenarios, one in accordance with current agency presumptions and one which assumes extreme unreliability in animal data and in the accuracy of potency assessments, compare conventional science-intensive and expedited procedures. On both, the total social costs of expedited procedures are lower than conventional procedures across a wide range of values assigned for individual mistakes of under regulation and over regulation. It appears better to evaluate a larger universe of known carcinogens somewhat less intensively for each substance than to evaluate a small proportion of that same universe very carefully and delay considering the rest.     

Introducing Fear of Crime to Risk Research

This article introduces the fear of crime to risk research, noting a number of areas for future interdisciplinary study. First, the article analyzes both the career of the concept of fear of crime and the politics of fear. Second, it considers research and theory on the psychology of risk, particularly the interplay between emotion and cognition, and what might be called the risk as image perspective. Third, the article speculates how people learn about risk and suggests how to customize a social amplification of risk framework to fear of crime. Finally, the article advances the argument that fear of crime may be an individual response to community social order and a generalized attitude toward the moral trajectory of society. Each of these areas of discussion has implications for future theoretical developments within risk research; each highlights how risk research can contribute to the social scientific understanding of an important issue of the day.