中国人口城市化综述

人口城市化在国家社会经济全面发展过程中具有重要作用。21世纪的中国人口城市化正在进入新的发展阶段。随着我国农村生产力水平的提高、工业化进程的加快和产业结构调整的深化,全面推进城市化的条件已经基本成熟。推进中国人口城市化,必须在我国现行城市化方针指导下,既研究世界城市化进程的一般规律,借鉴国际经验;又要结合我国城市化面临的现实国情和基本问题,逐步形成合理的城镇体系,走出符合我国国情,大、中、小城市协调发展的城市化道路。积极稳妥地推进中国人口城市化,实施可持续发展的城市化战略,也是全面建设小康社会的根本要求。     

论城市化进程中的人口现代化

中国是一个人口众多尤其是农村人口占多数的国家。在我国把城市化作为社会经济新一轮发展的重要载体，走大中小城市协调发展的人口城市化道路，探索实现现代化的途径，具有十分重要的意义。本文就如何加快城市化发展步伐与如何科学地选择人口城市化战略、城市化与人口现代化问题、当前在城市化发展中人口现代化的现状问题，     

中国计划城市化人口与自发城市化人口对比研究——从第四次人口普查资料看“流动人口”和迁移人口在中国人口城市化研究中的不同地位

改革开放之后,中国城市化进程出现了一个新的开端。这个新开端的一个显著特点,就是市场机制被引入城市化过程。这样,在中国就形成了两种城市化人口并存的局面:一是由计划机制控制而形成的计划城市化人口;一是由市场机制控制而形成的自发城市化人口。这两种不同性质的城市化人口已被学术界所关注(李竞能,1986;辜胜阻,1991等)。辜胜阻将这两种人口分别称为永久性迁移人     

人口城市化空间路径的理论与研究及其启示

城市化的实践进程表明,一个国家的人口城市化往往遵循"城市化—郊区化—逆城市化—再城市化"或者"大城市—中等城市—小城市"的空间路径而展开。文章对"空间循环假说"、ROXY指数方法、"区域城市化"概念以及"差别城市化理论"等人口城市化空间路径理论的演绎进行了梳理,并对国内外相关研究进行了总结。结合中国人口城市化进程特点,文章认为,人口城市化空间路径理论与研究对中国城市化的道路模式、区域规划以及都市圈与城市群区域人口城市化问题的研究有启示作用。     

中国农村人口城市化的新模式─—温州龙港“农民城”外来人口剖析

本文认为“离土又离乡”的农村劳动力转移的新模式─—龙港模式，在中国农村人口城市化进程中有着多方面积极作用，可以加快人口城市化的发展。对外来人口进入小城镇应持积极欢迎的态度。温州龙港“农民城”在短时间内发育为小城镇，即是生动的例证。     

对我国人口城市化道路的思考

加快我国人口城市化的发展,对推动我国社会经济的进一步发展具有十分重要的作用。中国走什么样的人口城市化发展道路一直是一个很重要又争论不休的问题。本文通过对我国城市发展方针的反思,提出了我国应走以规模扩大式为主的人口城市化道路。     

四川民族地区人口流动与城市化发展路径研究

本文以阿坝州、甘孜州、凉山州为例,分析了四川民族地区人口流动的成因、意义与困境;人口流动与城市化发展存在互动关系．积极推进民族地区城市化进程是缓解人口流动困境的有效路径。     

基于PVAR模型的东北地区城市化、工业化与人口集聚分析

城市化和工业化进程中东北人口流动和空间分布问题具有重要意义。本文分析了东北地区城市化和工业化的历史演进过程及发展特点,利用1987-2015年的相关城市数据,运用PVAR模型,通过系统广义矩估计(GMM)、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等方法研究工业化、城市化和东北人口集聚之间的关系。结果显示城市化水平的提升强化了"沈阳、大连、长春、哈尔滨"四个中心城市的影响力,有利于全省人口向四个中心城市集聚。以重工业发展模式和资本密集型投资倾向为特征的东北工业化发展不利于人口的集聚,另外市场化进程缓慢和指令性经济的影响弱化了工业化与城市化之间的循环累积效应,导致工业化与城市化的互动影响较弱且持续时间不长。在进一步讨论中,运用静态面板数据模型进行稳健性检验,发现结论与PVAR模型一致。目前在东北人口流失的背景下,东北地区应该充分发挥区域中心城市和大城市的规模效益和资源集聚优势,合理安排产业比例,完善产业布局,确定好重工业与轻工业的发展关系,促使工业化向更高级阶段发展。此外,还要减少城市化与工业化之间的摩擦成本和协调成本,实现两者的互动协调发展,以便更好发挥人口集聚优势,带动东北区域经济的发展。     

城市化与人口集聚

城市化是工业化的结果，也是农村人口伴随工业化进程向城镇迁移和集聚的结果。人口向城镇的迁移与集聚程度，直接反映一个国家或一个地区的城市化水平。在我国，除工业化进程这一基本因素以外，国家政策对人口的迁移、集聚和城市化起着极为重要的影响作用。因此，研究城市化问题，必须研究影响人口迁移与集聚的相关政策。     

改革和开放给人口城市化带来新的生机

在中国,自从70年代后期实施旨在对内搞活、对外开放的经济体制改革以来,极大地改变着社会的面貌。作为社会经济、政治、文化发展产物的人口城市化,同改革的实践休戚相关,改革的深度、广度和进程怎样,不能不在颇大的程度上制约着人口城市化的发展。     

城市化过程中城市郊区的社会变迁调查——以兰州市为例

城市郊区在传统的农业经济向现代的工业经济转变中,作为传统的农村社会和现代的城市社会冲突最为直接和最为激烈的地区,其经济、文化和社会组织具有明显的过渡性和不稳定性,与之相对应的是社会变迁呈现出多样性和复杂性。本文利用城市化社会变迁的一般理论,在对兰州市城市化过程中城市郊区进行调查的基础上,对城市郊区出现的途径,土地资源的转化模式,城市化社会制度变迁与工业化的关系,城市郊区人口的构成、流动等问题进行了分析。     

中国养老服务模式研究

随着社会老龄化程度的不断提高,养老服务越来越受到社会的重视。本文首先对人口老龄化的中国特色进行了研究,接着对我国人口快速老化带来的养老服务问题进行了宏、微观分析,最后提出构建中国特色的养老服务模式：以政府为主导,以社区为依托,以公益性为基础,以转变认识为前提。     

人口老龄化对企业出口国内增加值率的影响研究

中国经济正面临出口国内增加值率偏低和人口老龄化的双向挑战。基于2000~2013年中国微观企业数据,文章研究了人口老龄化对企业出口国内增加值率的影响。结果显示,人口老龄化会负向影响中国企业出口国内增加值率,且在克服内生性问题、进行多种稳健性检验后,这一结论依然成立。同时,这种负向影响主要是由进口中间品对国内中间品及劳动力的替代所导致的,而人口老龄化的成本效应对出口国内增加值率的不利影响相对较小,并且从贸易结构变动来看,人口老龄化并未通过降低企业从事加工贸易的比重,进而获得总体企业平均出口国内增加值率的“被动”提升。进一步研究还表明上述负向影响在混合贸易企业、劳动密集型企业、外资企业与人口净流出地区企业上体现得更为明显。     

The relationships between population and economy, and between population and education]

The relationship between population and economy is regarded seriously by China and other countries. This problem can be analyzed and studied under 2 aspects: 1) the influence of economic development on changes in population, and 2) the influence of population increases on economic development. Under the 1st aspect, improved living conditions, hygiene, and health care generally result in lowered mortality rates. Improved economic conditions in China also increased the birthrate and at the same time increased birth control among the people; the increased birthrate was due to more marriages after liberation. In economically advanced countries, due to high expenses in raising children, people tend to limit family sizes to 2 children/family. Under the 2nd aspect, population increases place strains on the food supply and nutritional requirements, especially when increases are too rapid. They also demand more educational resources and influence quality of education. As there are currently 210 million students in China, the quality of education suffers, particularly at the college level, since most of Chinese manpower, physical and financial resources are spent on primary and secondary education. In terms of housing, transportation, health care, and natural resources, they are all intimately related to and influenced by increases in population. Consequently, the living standard would be difficult to raise if population increases are too rapid. Since 1971, population increases have been incorporated into 5-yearly and later yearly national economic plans in China. The large Chinese population is a major obstacle in raising the Chinese economic level, hence a well-planned population control program is essential.     

中国各民族人口发展状况的度量

人口是社会生活的主体,人口发展是社会发展的重要组成部分。但度量社会发展的方法还存在一些难以解决的问题。利用现有的评价方法,尚不能全面准确地反映中国各民族人口发展的现状。为了更加全面准确地把握人口发展状态,构建了衡量人口发展的指标体系,按照这个指标体系,分析中国各民族人口的发展现状、各民族在发展过程中所处的位置,以及他们目前存在的突出问题。     

从上海看中国老年人口贫困与保障

文章在上海实地调研的基础上 ,从理论和实际两个方面探讨了老年人口贫困和保障问题。认为老年贫困人口问题将是我国社会主义初级阶段长期面临的严峻挑战。因此 ,我们一定要密切关注人口老龄化的发展趋势 ,结合中国的实际情况 ,因地因时地采取应对措施 ,积极预防和治理老年人口贫困问题     

Population problems in the areas where the relatives of overseas Chinese reside]

In the areas where relatives of overseas Chinese (huaqiao) reside, the population density is normally high. For example, in Jinjiang county of Fujian Province, where there is such population, the population density is six times that of Fujian Province in general. The main reason for this situation is that the local economy has improved greatly since 1949 and the living standard in the local area has been elevated as a result of improved medical care and a sharply reduced death rate. Financial resources sent back by the overseas Chinese to their relatives at home have also contributed to the local economic development. The traditional belief favoring more children to carry on the family line is still popular among the general public. All these factors have contributed to a rapid population growth, and the problem of over-population is becoming increasingly serious. At the present time, an understanding has to be reached that population control is in the best interest of both the local people and their relatives overseas. In addition to a control of the population growth, the quality of the population should also be improved. Some advantageous conditions in the areas inhabited by the relatives of overseas Chinese are helpful to reach the goal of family planning: (1) More advanced development in business and industry, (2) more schools established with financial support sent in from overseas, and (3) a general higher cultural and educational level of the local people. Because of these conditions, population control should be achieved more easily than in other places.     

The ideology of population control in the UN draft plan for Cairo

This paper examines the influence of population control ideology on the draft plan for the UN Cairo Conference on Population and Development. It is argued that this draft plan can only be fully understood in the context of the recent history of the population control movement and of the empirical reality of population control in particular countries. The paper focuses on the origins of the ideology of population control in the eugenics movement initially, and more recently in organisations such as International Planned Parenthood Federation. The role of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in promoting an incremental approach towards the wider acceptance of population control since the first intergovernmental conference on population in Bucharest in 1974, is outlined. Despite the serious loss of credibility for the UN, through the association of the UNFPA with the Chinese population control programme — the most coercive programme of its type in history — the UN in the draft plan for Cairo continues to promote the ideology of population control. This paper argues for the need to develop a more positive model of development, which acknowledges the complementarity between the lack of development of poorer countries and their potential for significant progress, and the overdevelopment of industrialised regions, whose future growth is increasingly based on intense competition for shrinking markets.This article is based on a paper, presented to the International Geographical Union Congress at Prague, 21–27 August 1994.     

Further research in theories of population being carried out]

The 2nd Chinese Scientific Symposium on Theories of Population was held in Chengdu, Sichuan, on December 7-13, 1979. The symposium was jointly sponsored by the Department of Family Planning of the Chinese Central Government, Chinese Academy of Sociology, Sichuan Provincial Revolutionary Committee (SPRC), and the Institute of Population Theories of the Chinese People's University (IPT). There were 255 attendants, representing 60 academic institutions, 14 scientific research organizations and 31 provincial, municipal, and autonomous regional departments of family planning. The main theme of the meeting was "Population Problems and Their Solutions Facing the Four Modernizations in China." 147 papers were read at the meeting. The meeting opened with a welcoming speech by Comrade Liu Haiquan, Vice-Chairman of SPRC, who pointed out the challenge Chinese family planners would face in advocating the 1 child family policy. Long speeches were made by Comrade Chen Dao who stressed the training of workers for Chinese population research and by Comrade Du Xinyuan (secretary of SPRC) who summarized results on recent family planning efforts in Sichuan. During the meeting, based on their contents, the papers were divided into 7 groups for separate discussions: 1) population development in the socialistic society, 2) relationship between population and economic developments and between population control and the 4 modernizations in China, 3) possible population problems in China, their nature, etiology and methods of solution, 4) population policies and family planning in China, 5) trends in population development and population planning in China, 6) problems of population distribution in China, and 7) development of population theories in China during the past 30 years. The meeting discussions were summarized by Comrade Liu Zheng of IPT who noted that there were 84 more attendants and 110 more papers in this meeting than the first held in 1978.     

The population of British Borneo

The population of British Borneo is small. Population growth since 1900 has been unspectacular but has been aided by Chinese immigration beginning from the middle of the 19th century until 1939, and also by the immigration of the Javanese and other peoples from the surrounding islands during the same period. The Chinese form by far the majority of the immigrant population and are important not only in terms of the numbers involved but also in terms of the powerful economic position assumed by them.

Besides affecting population growth, immigration has also had significant effects on the population composition and also on the birth rates, death rates and sex ratio. The significant fact about the population composition is that the number of Chinese is very large. It is not often realised that, though forming the second largest group in each of the three territories, the Chinese together form the largest single ethnic group in British Borneo.

The differential rates of growth in the various districts, owing largely to the presence or absence of immigrant populations and to the degree of economic development, have produced a very uneven distribution of population, with a very definite centering of peoples in certain areas. The coastal concentration of the immigrant peoples is another outstanding feature, a fact due as much to Borneo's position as it is to the easy entry by sea and difficult land access. These coastal pockets reflect broadly the former points of entry of the peoples, but such population centres are not necessarily stable since there was incomplete knowledge of the country during the period when immigrants were coming in, and the richer lands of the east coast were still undiscovered. It is clear that there will be further shifts of population centres when the advantages of the country are fully known. However, it is more important in this multi-racial society, that the ethnic types converging upon Borneo have been of separate groups and their movement has extended over different lengths of time, with the result that the country's ethnic map shows different degrees of their absorption into the Bornean setting. Absorption has been going on in some instances, but in view of the wide differences in economic status between immigrant and indigene, the fusion of the different groups is difficult.