Non-homogeneous Pólya-Aeppli process

Abstract

In this paper we suppose that the intensity parameter of the Pólya-Aeppli process is a function of time t and call the resulting process a non-homogeneous Pólya-Aeppli process (NHPAP). The NHPAP can be represented as a compound non-homogeneous Poisson process with geometric compounding distribution as well as a pure birth process. For this process we give two definitions and show their equivalence. Also, we derive some interesting properties of NHPAP and use simulation the illustrate the process for particular intensity functions. In addition, we introduce the standard risk model based on NHPAP, analyze the ruin probability for this model and include an example of the process under exponentially distributed claims.     

Approximate Confidence Limits for a Proportion of the Pólya Distribution

The problem of constructing approximate confidence limits for a proportion parameter of the Pólya distribution is discussed. Three different methods for determining approximate one-sided and two-sided confidence limits for that parameter of the Pólya distribution have been proposed and compared. Particular cases of those confidence bounds are confidence intervals for the parameter of the binomial and the hypergeometric distributions.     

Inference for IZAWA’S Bivariate Gamma Distribution

Abstract

In this article, we aim to establish some theoretical properties of Izawa’s bivariate gamma distribution having equal shape parameters. First, we propose a procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and derive an expression for the Fisher information. Simulation studies illuminate the properties of maximum likelihood estimators. We also establish an asymptotic test for independence based on the limiting distribution of maximum likelihood estimators.     

On Markov-Pólya Distribution and the Katz Family of Distributions

This article is concerned with the Markov-Pólya distribution and its links with the Katz family of distributions. The Katz family is defined through a first-order recursion of remarkable form; it (only) covers the Poisson, negative binomial and binomial distributions. The Markov-Pólya distribution arises in the study of certain urn or population models that incorporate (anti)contagion effects. The present work is motivated by questions and applications in actuarial sciences. First, the Markov-Pólya distribution is presented as a claim frequency model. This distribution is then shown to satisfy a Katz-like recursion. As a consequence, a simple recursion is derived for computing a compound sum distribution that generalizes the Panjer algorithm in risk theory. The Katz family is also obtained as a limit of the Markov-Pólya distribution. Finally, an observed frequency of car accidents is fitted by a Markov-Pólya distribution.     

Is Each NPMLE of a Continuous Bivariate Distribution Function with Singly Right-Censored Data Really Inconsistent?

We consider non-parametric estimation of a continuous cdf of a random vector (X ₁, X ₂). With bivariate RC data, it is stated in van der Laan (1996 Van der Laan , M. J. ( 1996 ) Efficient estimation in the bivariate censoring model and repairing NPMLE . Ann. Statist. 24 : 596 – 627 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], p. 598¹⁰, Ann. Statist.), Quale et al. (2006 Quale , C. M. , van der Laan , M. J. , Robins , J. R. ( 2006 ). Locally efficient estimation with bivariate right-censored data . JASA. 101 : 1076 – 1084 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], JASA) etc. that “it is well known that the NPMLE for continuous data is inconsistent (Tsai et al. (1986 Tsai , W. Y. , Leurgans , S. , Crowley , J. ( 1986 ). Nonparametric estimation of a bivariate survival function in the presence of censoring . Ann. Statist. 14 : 1351 – 1365 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])).” The claim is based on a result in Tsai et al. (1986 Tsai , W. Y. , Leurgans , S. , Crowley , J. ( 1986 ). Nonparametric estimation of a bivariate survival function in the presence of censoring . Ann. Statist. 14 : 1351 – 1365 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], p.1352, Ann. Statist.) that if X ₁ is right censored but not X ₂, then common ways for defining one NPMLE lead to inconsistency. If X ₁ is right censored and X ₂ is type I right-censored (which includes the case in Tsai et al.), we present a consistent NPMLE. The result corrects a common misinterpretation of Tsai's example (Tsai et al., 1986 Tsai , W. Y. , Leurgans , S. , Crowley , J. ( 1986 ). Nonparametric estimation of a bivariate survival function in the presence of censoring . Ann. Statist. 14 : 1351 – 1365 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], Ann. Statist.).     

Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of a Bivariate Gaussian–Weibull Distribution and an Introduction to the Associated Pseudo-truncated Weibull

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity or MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture or MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two or three parameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of wood system reliability calculations, we introduce a bivariate Gaussian–Weibull distribution and the associated pseudo-truncated Weibull. We use asymptotically efficient likelihood methods to obtain an estimator of the parameter vector of the bivariate Gaussian–Weibull, and then obtain the asymptotic distribution of this estimator.     

Estimating the Pólya process

Traditionally, a Pólya process is approached from a probability point of view. No prior inference work has been done on them. In this study, we approach the continuous-time Pólya process from an estimation point of view. We construct efficient estimators for the replacement matrix of certain classes of Pólya processes.     

A Generalization to Bivariate Mittag–Leffler and Bivariate Discrete Mittag–Leffler Autoregressive Processes

A generalization of the Gaver and Lewis (1980 Gaver , D. P. , Lewis , P. A. W. ( 1980 ). First order autoregressive gamma sequences and point processes . Adv. Appl. Probab. 12 : 727 – 745 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model of first-order autoregressive process with marginals as bivariate Mittag–Leffler distribution is obtained. A necessary and sufficient condition for stationarity of the process is established. Autoregressive process with marginals follow bivariate discrete Mittag–Leffler distribution is also developed. The unknown parameters of the processes are estimated and some numerical results of the estimations are given.     

Does the Moment-Generating Function Characterize a Distribution?

It is shown that two visibly distinct distributions can have almost identical moment-generating functions.     

Bivariate log Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

Univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution has received a considerable amount of attention in recent years. Rieck and Nedelman (A log-linear model for the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. Technometrics, 1991;33:51–60) introduced a log Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. The main aim of this paper is to introduce bivariate log Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. The proposed model is symmetric and it has five parameters. It can be obtained using Gaussian copula. Different properties can be obtained using copula structure. It is observed that the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) cannot be obtained explicitly. Two-dimensional profile likelihood approach may be adopted to compute the MLEs. We propose some alternative estimators also, which can be obtained quite conveniently. The analysis of one data set is performed for illustrative purposes. Finally, it is observed that this model can be used as a bivariate log-linear model, and its multivariate generalization is also quite straight forward.     

Geiger Counter-Type Pólya–Eggenberger Distributions

Motivated by the paper of Dandekar (1955), a one-urn model with Polya–Eggenberger sampling scheme is developed, which yields a large number of discrete distributions, including the Dandekar's modified binomial distribution, as particular cases. The model is further modified to some new generalized distributions of order k. Some probable applications of these models were discussed in Dandekar (1955) and Feller (1968) in fields of fertility study and radioactivity. It also has applications in premium determination in insurance sector.     

Bivariate semi α-Laplace distribution and processes

The Laplace distribution is considered as a better choice for modeling whenever data exhibit high kurtosis and heavier tails than Gaussian tails. Even though this is the case, not much work has been done on bivariate Laplace distribution. In this work, we introduce and study a new class of bivariate distributions called bivariate semi α-Laplace distribution, containing bivariate Laplace distributions. Three characterizations of bivariate semi α-Laplace distribution are obtained. Relation with bivariate semi stable distribution is established. An autoregressive model with bivariate semi α-Laplace marginal distributions is developed.     

Asymptotic Results for a Generalized Pólya Urn with “Multi-Updating” and Applications to Clinical Trials

In this article, a new Pólya urn model is introduced and studied; in particular, a strong law of large numbers and two central limit theorems are proved. This urn generalizes a model studied in Berti et al. (2004 Berti , P. , Pratelli , L. , Rigo , P. ( 2004 ). Limit theorems for a class of identically distributed random variables . Ann. Probab. 32 ( 3A ): 2029 – 2052 . [Google Scholar]), May et al. (2005 May , C. , Paganoni , A. M. , Secchi , P. ( 2005 ). On a two-color generalized Pólya urn . Metron 63 ( 1 ): 115 – 134 . [Google Scholar]), and in Crimaldi (2007 Crimaldi , I. ( 2007 ). Almost sure conditional convergence for a generalized Pólya urn. Submitted. Available at: http://amsacta.cib.unibo.it/archive/00002468  [Google Scholar]), and it has natural applications in clinical trials. Indeed, the model includes both delayed and missing (or null) responses. Moreover, a connection with the conditional identity in distribution of Berti et al. (2004 Berti , P. , Pratelli , L. , Rigo , P. ( 2004 ). Limit theorems for a class of identically distributed random variables . Ann. Probab. 32 ( 3A ): 2029 – 2052 . [Google Scholar]) is given.     

Pólya–Aeppli of Order k Risk Model

In this study, we define the Pólya–Aeppli process of order k as a compound Poisson process with truncated geometric compounding distribution with success probability 1 ? ρ > 0 and investigate some of its basic properties. Using simulation, we provide a comparison between the sample paths of the Pólya–Aeppli process of order k and the Poisson process. Also, we consider a risk model in which the claim counting process {N(t)} is a Pólya-Aeppli process of order k, and call it a Pólya—Aeppli of order k risk model. For the Pólya–Aeppli of order k risk model, we derive the ruin probability and the distribution of the deficit at the time of ruin. We discuss in detail the particular case of exponentially distributed claims and provide simulation results for more general cases.     

Characterizations of asymptotic distributions of continuous-time Pólya processes

Abstract

We propose an elementary but effective approach to studying a general class of Poissonized tenable and balanced urns on two colors. We characterize the asymptotic behavior of the process via a partial differential equation that governs the process, coupled with the method of moments applied in a bootstrapped manner. We show that the limiting distribution of the process underlying the Bagchi-Pal urn is gamma. We also look into the tenable and balanced processes associated with randomized replacement matrix. Similar results carry over to the process, with minor modifications in the methods of proof, done mutatis mutandis.     

Inference for Type II bivariate Pólya–Aeppli distribution

In this article, we discuss the estimation of model parameters of the Type II bivariate Pólya–Aeppli distribution using the method of moments and the maximum likelihood method. We also compare some interval estimation methods. We then carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed point and interval estimation methods. Finally, we present an example to illustrate all the inferential methods developed here.     

Estimating a Finite Mixed Exponential Distribution under Progressively Type-II Censored Data

The Type-II progressive censoring scheme has become very popular for analyzing lifetime data in reliability and survival analysis. However, no published papers address parameter estimation under progressive Type-II censoring for the mixed exponential distribution (MED), which is an important model for reliability and survival analysis. This is the problem that we address in this paper. It is noted that maximum likelihood estimation of unknown parameters cannot be obtained in closed form due to the complicated log-likelihood function. We solve this problem by using the EM algorithm. Finally, we obtain closed form estimates of the model. The proposed methods are illustrated by both some simulations and a case analysis.     

Test of Independence for Baker’s Bivariate Distributions

Baker (2008 Baker, R. (2008). An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99: 2312–2327.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduced a new method for constructing multivariate distributions with given marginals based on order statistics. In this paper, we provide a test of independence for a pair of absolutely continuous random variables (X, Y) jointly distributed according to Baker’s bivariate distributions. Our purpose is to test the hypothesis that X and Y are independent versus the alternative that X and Y are positively (negatively) quadrant dependent. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is investigated. Also, the powers of the proposed test and the class of distribution-free tests proposed by Kochar and Gupta (1987 Kochar, S. G., Gupta, R. P. (1987). Competitors of Kendall-tau test for testing independence against positive quadrant dependence. Biometrika 74(3): 664–666.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) are compared empirically via a simulation study.     

On inference for Kendall's τ within a longitudinal data setting

Kendall's τ is a non-parametric measure of correlation based on ranks and is used in a wide range of research disciplines. Although methods are available for making inference about Kendall's τ, none has been extended to modeling multiple Kendall's τs arising in longitudinal data analysis. Compounding this problem is the pervasive issue of missing data in such study designs. In this article, we develop a novel approach to provide inference about Kendall's τ within a longitudinal study setting under both complete and missing data. The proposed approach is illustrated with simulated data and applied to an HIV prevention study.     

Likelihood inference for Type I bivariate Pólya–Aeppli distribution

This article discusses likelihood inference for the Type I bivariate Pólya–Aeppli distribution. The Type I bivariate Pólya–Aeppli distribution was derived by Minkova and Balakrishnan by using compounding with geometric random variables and the trivariate reduction method. They also discussed the moment estimation of the parameters of the Type I bivariate Pólya–Aeppli distribution. Here, we carry out a simulation study to compare the performance of the developed Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method with the moment estimation. The obtained results show that, through the MLEs require more computational time compared to the moment estimates (MoM), the MLEs perform better, in most of the settings, than the MoM. Finally, we apply the Type I bivariate Pólya–Aeppli model to a real dataset containing the frequencies of railway accidents in two subsequent six-year periods for the purpose of illustration. We also carry out some hypothesis tests using the Wald test statistic. From these results, we conclude that the two variables belong to the same univariate Pólya–Aeppli distribution, but are correlated.