On the rate of convergence of recursive kernel estimates of probability densities

Recursive estimates f_n^r(x)of the rth derivative f^r(x)(r=0,1)of the univariate probability density f(x) for strictly stationary processes {X_j,} are considered. The asymptotic variance-covariance of f_n^r(x)is established for stationary triangular arrays of random variables satisfying various asymptotic independence-uncorrelatedness conditions.     

Exponential Family Techniques for the Lognormal Left Tail

Let X be lognormal(μ,σ²) with density f(x); let θ > 0 and define . We study properties of the exponentially tilted density (Esscher transform) f_θ(x) = e^?θxf(x)/L(θ), in particular its moments, its asymptotic form as θ→∞ and asymptotics for the saddlepoint θ(x) determined by . The asymptotic formulas involve the Lambert W function. The established relations are used to provide two different numerical methods for evaluating the left tail probability of the sum of lognormals S_n=X₁+?+X_n: a saddlepoint approximation and an exponential tilting importance sampling estimator. For the latter, we demonstrate logarithmic efficiency. Numerical examples for the cdf F_n(x) and the pdf f_n(x) of S_n are given in a range of values of σ²,n and x motivated by portfolio value‐at‐risk calculations.     

On tail parameter estimation in certain point process models

Let μ(ds, dx) denote Poisson random measure with intensity dsG(dx) on (0, ∞) × (0, ∞), for a measure G(dx) with tails varying regularly at ∞. We deal with estimation of index of regular variation α and weight parameter ξ if the point process is observed in certain windows K_n = [0, T_n] × [Y_n, ∞), where Y_n → ∞ as n → ∞. In particular, we look at asymptotic behaviour of the Hill estimator for α. In certain submodels, better estimators are available; they converge at higher speed and have a strong optimality property. This is deduced from the parametric case G(dx) = ξαx^−α−1 dx via a neighbourhood argument in terms of Hellinger distances.     

Moments of Order Statistics from Weibull Distribution in the Presence of Multiple Outliers

In this article, we derive exact expressions for the single and product moments of order statistics from Weibull distribution under the contamination model. We assume that X₁, X₂, …, X_{n ? p} are independent with density function f(x) while the remaining, p observations (outliers) X_{n ? p + 1}, …, X_n are independent with density function arises from some modified version of f(x), which is called g(x), in which the location and/or scale parameters have been shifted in value. Next, we investigate the effect of the outliers on the BLUE of the scale parameter. Finally, we deduce some special cases.     

Change-Point Detection With Non-Parametric Regression

We consider the regression model y_i = ?(x_i ) + ε in which the function ? or its pth derivative ?^(p) may have a discontinuity at some unknown point τ. By fitting local polynomials from the left and right, we test the null that ?^(p) is continuous against the alternative that ?^(p)(τ?) ≠ ?^(p)(τ+). We obtain Darling-Erdös type limit theorems for the test statistics under the null hypothesis of no change, as well as their limits in probability under the alternative. Consistency of the related change-point estimators is also established.     

Density estimation for samples satisfying a certain absolute regularity condition

Let {ξ_i} be an absolutely regular sequence of identically distributed random variables having common density function f(x). Let H_k(x,y) (k=1, 2,…) be a sequence of Borel-measurable functions and f_n(x)=n^?1(H_n(x,ξ₁)+…+H_n(x,ξ_n)) the empirical density function. In this paper, the asymptotic property of the probability P(sup_x|f_n(x)?f(x)|>ε) (n→∞) is studied.     

Asymptotic Properties of Random Weighted Empirical Distribution Function

This article studies the asymptotic properties of the random weighted empirical distribution function of independent random variables. Suppose X₁, X₂, ???, X_n is a sequence of independent random variables, and this sequence is not required to be identically distributed. Denote the empirical distribution function of the sequence by F_n(x). Based on the random weighting method and F_n(x), the random weighted empirical distribution function H_n(x) is constructed and the asymptotic properties of H_n are discussed. Under weak conditions, the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem and the central limit theorem for the random weighted empirical distribution function are obtained. The obtained results have also been applied to study the distribution functions of random errors of multiple sensors.     

Statistical Discrimination Analysis Using the Maximum Function

The maximum of k functions defined on R ⁿ , n ≥ 1, by f _max (x) = max{f ₁ (x),…, f _k (x)}, ? x ? R ⁿ , can have important roles in Statistics, particularly in Classification. Through its relation with the Bayes error, which is the reference error in classification, it can serve to compute numerical bounds for errors in other classification schemes. It can also serve to define the joint L¹-distance between more than two densities, which, in turn, will serve as a useful tool in Classification and Cluster Analyses. It has a vast potential application in digital image processing too. Finally, its versatile role can be seen in several numerical examples, related to the analysis of Fisher's classical iris data in multidimensional spaces.     

Limiting distributions of Kolmogorov-Lévy-type statistics under the alternative

Let X_i, 1 ≤ i ≤ n, be independent identically distributed random variables with a common distribution function F, and let G be a smooth distribution function. We derive the limit distribution of □{ρ_α(F_n, G) - _α(F, G)}, where F_n is the empirical distribution function based on X₁,…,X_n and _α is a Kolmogorov-Lévy-type metric between distribution functions. For α ≤ 0 and two distribution functions F and G the metric p_α is given by p_α(F, G) = inf {? ≤ 0: G(x - α?) - ? F(x) ≤ G(x + α?) + ? for all x ?}.     

Number of observations near the maximum in an F α-scheme

Let K _n (a) be the number of observations in the interval (M _n ,?a, M _n ), where M _n is the maximum value in a sequence of size n. We study the asymptotic properties of K _n (a) under the F ^α-scheme and discuss the influence of the associated sequence α _n on the limit behaviour of this random variable.     

On kernel estimators of density ratio

Let f(x) and g(x) denote two probability density functions and g(x)≠0. There are two ways to estimate the density ratio f(x)/g(x). One is to estimate f(x) and g(x) first and then the ratio, the other is to estimate f(x)/g(x) directly. In this paper, we derive asymptotic mean square errors and central limit theorems for both estimators.     

THE CONVERGENCE RATE OF SEQUENTIAL FIXED-WIDTH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR REGULAR FUNCTIONALS

Let X₁X₂,.be i.i.d. random variables and let U_n= (n r)^-1S?^(n,r) h (X_i1,., X_ir,) be a U-statistic with EU_n= v, v unknown. Assume that g(X₁) =E[h(X₁,.,X_r) - v |X₁]has a strictly positive variance s?². Further, let a be such that φ(a) - φ(-a) =α for fixed α, 0 < α < 1, where φ is the standard normal d.f., and let S²_n be the Jackknife estimator of n Var U_n. Consider the stopping times N(d)= min {n: S²_n: + n^-1≤²a^-2},d > 0, and a confidence interval for v of length 2d,of the form I_n,d= [U_n,-d, Un + d]. We assume that Var U_n is unknown, and hence, no fixed sample size method is available for finding a confidence interval for v of prescribed width 2d and prescribed coverage probability α Turning to a sequential procedure, let I_N(d),d be a sequence of sequential confidence intervals for v. The asymptotic consistency of this procedure, i.e. lim_{d → 0}P(v ∈ I_N(d),d)=α follows from Sproule (1969). In this paper, the rate at which |P(v ∈ I_N(d),d) converges to α is investigated. We obtain that |P(v ∈ I_N(d),d) - α| = 0 (d^{1/2-(1+k)/2(1+m)}), d → 0, where K = max {0,4 - m}, under the condition that E|h(X₁, X_r)|^m < ∞m > 2. This improves and extends recent results of Ghosh & DasGupta (1980) and Mukhopadhyay (1981).     

PLUG-IN ESTIMATION OF GENERAL LEVEL SETS

Given an unknown function (e.g. a probability density, a regression function, …) f and a constant c, the problem of estimating the level set L(c) ={f≥c} is considered. This problem is tackled in a very general framework, which allows f to be defined on a metric space different from . Such a degree of generality is motivated by practical considerations and, in fact, an example with astronomical data is analyzed where the domain of f is the unit sphere. A plug‐in approach is followed; that is, L(c) is estimated by L_n(c) ={f_n≥c} , where f_n is an estimator of f. Two results are obtained concerning consistency and convergence rates, with respect to the Hausdorff metric, of the boundaries ?L_n(c) towards ?L(c) . Also, the consistency of L_n(c) to L(c) is shown, under mild conditions, with respect to the L₁ distance. Special attention is paid to the particular case of spherical data.     

Expected Absolute Error of the Usual Estimator of the Binomial Parameter

For X with binomial (n, p) distribution the usual measure of the error of X/n as an estimator of p is its standard error S_n(p) = √{E(X/n – p)²} = √{p(1 – p)/n}. A somewhat more natural measure is the average absolute error D_n(p) = E‖X/n – p‖. This article considers use of D_n(p) instead of S_n(p) in a student's first introduction to statistical estimation. Exact and asymptotic values of D_n(p), and the appearance of its graph, are described in detail. The same is done for the Poisson distribution.     

Berry–Esseen type bounds in heteroscedastic errors-in-variables model

ABSTRACT

Consider the heteroscedastic partially linear errors-in-variables (EV) model y_i = x_iβ + g(t_i) + ε_i, ξ_i = x_i + μ_i (1 ? i ? n), where ε_i = σ_ie_i are random errors with mean zero, σ²_i = f(u_i), (x_i, t_i, u_i) are non random design points, x_i are observed with measurement errors μ_i. When f( · ) is known, we derive the Berry–Esseen type bounds for estimators of β and g( · ) under {e_i,?1 ? i ? n} is a sequence of stationary α-mixing random variables, when f( · ) is unknown, the Berry–Esseen type bounds for estimators of β, g( · ), and f( · ) are discussed under independent errors.     

ON TRANSITION PROBABILITIES OF SKIP-FREE MARKOV CHAINS

Consider an ergodic Markov chain X(t) in continuous time with an infinitesimal matrix Q = (q_ij) defined on a finite state space {0, 1,…, N}. In this note, we prove that if X(t) is skip-free positive (negative, respectively), i.e., q_ij, = 0 for j > i+ 1 (i > j+ 1), then the transition probability p_ij(t) = Pr[X(t)=j | X(0) =i] can be represented as a linear combination of p_0N(t) (p^(m)_(N0)(t)), 0 ≤ m ≤N, where f^(m)(t) denotes the mth derivative of a function f(t) with f⁽⁰⁾(t) =f(t). If X(t) is a birth-death process, then p_ij(t) is represented as a linear combination of p_0N^(m)(t), 0 ≤m≤N - |i-j|.     

Asymptotic properties for estimates of nonparametric regression model with martingale difference errors

Consider the nonparametric regression model with martingale difference errors. Nonparametric estimator g _n (x) of regression function g(x) will be introduced, and its asymptotic properties are studied. In particular, the pointwise and uniform convergence of g _n (x) and its asymptotic normality will be investigated. This extends the earlier work on independent random errors.